Is Obama Nervous About Pennsylvania?

You betcha!

And from our official campaign stop tracker No Tribe: “On Monday November 5, President Clinton will campaign in Pittsburgh and Scranton as well as hold two events in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.”

This is OFA’s top surrogate. Four stops in Pennsylvania the day before the election.

Any questions who’s winning?

185 Comments

  1. Aaron S.
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Brilliant sign at Romney ralley in Ohio:

    “If Romnesia helps me forget the last four years, I want it!”

  2. Patrick
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Funny, Nate Silver is on Maddow saying he thinks Romney wont win PA. Hasn’t put any money on it though so I don’t think he is all in.

    • valleyforge
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He’s 98.3% sure. The guy doesn’t believe his own model.

      • David Weed
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

        I, for one, believe in Nate Silver’s models. Pretty sure Rachel Maddow agreed with Nate. I, however, will take ANY bets regarding PA. I’ll take Obama. You guys can take Mitt!

        Any takers?

      • tim
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

        David Weed – I’ll take that bet. Since you “believe in Nate Silver’s models”, and he has Penn going to Obama at 96.4% currently, a reasonable set of odds would be, say, 25:1.

        Are you willing to bet 1:25 odds on Penn going to Obama? I got a hot 20 bucks here that is waiting for you to win 500…

      • David Weed
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

        That’s good, Tim! At 96.4%, it doesn’t actually equate to 25:1 odds, although it doesn’t surprise me that your math might be off. There’s a lot of that going around. However, I’ve done some research, and I’m willing to “match” current oddsmakers. The current odds are 8:1

      • tim
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:09 am | Permalink

        I appreciate the response, and you are right, my back of the envelope math was off. It actually is 27:1, not 25:1. So how about 20 bucks to win 540?

        I wouldn’t argue with a stats guy with a PhD from Georgia Tech.

        Here’s a site for you to use.

        http://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/odds.php

        Still a big Nate Silver fan?

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:12 am | Permalink

        @David Weed if you can figure out a way to escrow the money, I’ll go 100 to 800.

    • David Weed
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’d go 10:1 actually, as I’m originally from the Commonwealth.

      Here’s a link to the odds: http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/1918550/US-Election-2012—State-Betting-N-to-W.html

      • Aaron
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink

        I will take ten to one on 1k not kidding

      • tim
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink

        Unfortunately, for anyone in the US, these betting sites cannot be used unless you have some international intermediary. Otherwise, I would be attacking most of these odds.

    • cbr66
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Have you put any money on it?

      • AJ
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:11 am | Permalink

        Just bet on foreing gambling sites.

  3. No Tribe
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    After tonights big joint rally, here’s Romney’s final schedule. He can’t fit in anything else, can he? Added an additional VA stop on the 4th, and an additional FL stop on the 5th since yesterday.

    Mitt Romney:

    Saturday, November 3, 2012
    Newington, New Hampshire
    Dubuque, Iowa
    Colorado Springs, Colorado
    Englewood, Colorado

    Sunday, November 4, 2012
    Des Moines, Iowa
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Morrisville, Pennsylvania
    Newport News, Virginia

    Monday, November 5, 2012
    Sanford, Florida
    Lynchburg, Virginia
    Fairfax, Virginia
    Columbus, Ohio
    Manchester, New Hampshire

    • Fred S
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Glad to see he is letting NV go. A lot of flying miles with a small likelihood of success.

      • Tony
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

        Totally agree…

    • valleyforge
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      These are not your usual last-minute turnout rallies in deep Red counties. Cleveland, Columbus, Fairfax, Des Moines are all about tamping down Obama’s margin.

    • Michael
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Check that out on a map!

      http://www.mapquest.com/?version=1.0&hk=5-JemgrOP3

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lots of enemy territory. Going to Cleveland and Columbus tells you where he’s out in Ohio. These are not place Romney will win. He’s making a statement. Sanford, OTOH, is a purely “help Mack over the finish line” stop to get in the Orlando news. Manchester is a nice last stop close to MA.

      • NHConservative
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

        I will be there in NH, just got my tickets.

  4. Brian
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Jay Cost had some other comments about PA earlier, too.

    Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS

    Been running calculations on Pennsylvania. It is no head fake.

    http://www.twitlonger.com/show/jsavqc

    “The low-down on the Keystone State:

    Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.

    So assume:

    (a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).

    (b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ’04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)

    Then:

    Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

    Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.”

    • damien
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i wanna see that philly county get down

    • Pa John
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If Romney ties the 4 surrounding counties around Philly its a slam dunk win. The “Alabama” portion of PA where all the patriots live will carry Romney by 56% at least. Even McCain took 51% of Alabama PA. Been working hard core Dems here for months and they are cracking. Many are voting Romney. Some of the jihadists are staying home they tell me. The coal country patriots are not getting picked up by pollsters. Rasmussen said PA is a fantasy
      As a lifetime beleaguered resident this is the 1st time since 88 that I can “feel” it.

      • Karen
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

        I am outside Philly and it is definitely a different feel than 2008 and 2004. I am hoping it is stays close so that RR has a shot to win here.

      • Ken in Bama
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:24 am | Permalink

        I am from Alabama and never heard of the “Alabama” portion of PA. I hope that is where all the good hard working conservatives live. Haha,

      • Pa John
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:55 am | Permalink

        @Ken in Bama..James Carville once described PA as Philly-Pitt and Alabama in between. He meant it as a an elitist slur, but us tweeners took it as a compliment.

    • Pa John
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Check Pa Sec of State. Total registered is down 315000 this year. 2004-2008 turnout was 68.5. Thats 215000 less low info voters. Dems always carry low info types. (Thats why they are Dems) At this point we dont know who they are. Hopefully its inner city and college kids. ( Its a shame college kids are low info voters)

    • Ron
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Susquehanna Polling and Research today reported Romney up by 4 in PA, 49-45. Tom Smith up 2 over Casey, 48-46. Ed Morrissey interviewed Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling a few days ago.. Seemed like a sincere and knowledgeable guy. He said he wasn’t predicting a win, but PA is a genuine toss-up. The NYTimes today also reported the state is trending Romney. Obama’s problem is twofold here: coal and Catholicism. Western PA is coal country and Northeastern PA is very Catholic. Obama’s also weak in the suburbs around Philly.

  5. No Tribe
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, guess where Clinton is ALL DAY on Monday:

    On Monday November 5, President Clinton will campaign in Pittsburgh and Scranton as well as hold two events in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

    As for Obama, on Nov 5th, he will start in Madison, Wisconsin. Bluest of the blue.

    Not winning.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Was already putting your handy work into the post 🙂

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

        That’s just open panic happening on the Dem side over PA. Again, excellent timing for Romney to pull it off.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Delicious. I can smell the fear. Funny thing is, I betcha they have no desire to actually send Obama there because it’ll hurt them in PA.

      • Ron
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:04 am | Permalink

        Bill Clinton in OH told a small crowd it was great to be in PA. A Biden-like slip that was pretty revealing. I don’t think it was because he lost track of where he was. I think it was because he had PA on the mind–and he’s worried.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It could be argued O’s just trying to help Baldwin the same way that Mitt is trying to help Mack…anyway, just sayin’…

    • Ron
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here’s the new GOP poll showing Romney up 4 in PA.

  6. valleyforge
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m in Chester county and got 3 robocalls attacking Obama in 3 hours this evening. Prior to today they had been for local races.

    • Karen
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am in Delaware County and got five calls today – all Republican.

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Today a number of Obama signs have popped up on my drive from Philly to Haverford area…first new Obama signs in a while…Obama Mainline campaign office was also very busy, they are trying to make a late 4th quarter comeback…very excited for the rally on Sunday!

      • docsazman
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

        Are they on private property or along the roadside?

    • Jeni
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m in Chester County…got two calls tonight, including one where they actually were able to personalize Mitt addressing me by name. Just found this site last night…thank God! It was the only thing that kept me sane today. You guys are great!

    • Pa John
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Like

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:09 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yesterday’s Obama ad in NE PA was pretty presidential–Morning in America type ad. Today’s ad, though, was slash-and-burn–MItt sending jobs to China, etc. I think the internals they’re getting must be scary.

  7. No Tribe
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The reports I read had Republican side being over $11M for the week, and Obama at $1.6M. A lot of money going in there right now.

  8. bks
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Excellent article about survey bias:

    http://votamatic.org/another-look-at-survey-bias/

    –bks

  9. Fred S
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Karl Rove just on Hannity. Ohio EV swing to Reps is now 263k vs. 2008, almost exactly Obama’s margin of victory. This number has grown by about 20k during the week. He is predicting Romney carries OH by about 100k and also carries CO (also winning the states we are expecting, FL, VA, NC). Also thinks Romney will carry some of the other battlegrounds.

    • damien
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      well ohio puts him at 275..

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      100,000 is likely outside the margin of fraud. I think he is conservative and that it’ll be 150K plus. He’s underestimating the turnout for the GOP and the work being done to get approximately 300,000 evangelicals that didn’t vote last time in Ohio to the polls. Won’t get them all, but Ralph Reed and others have been working on them. Don’t underestimate what that Billy Graham ad running this past weekend will do.

      • Tedley
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

        I’m telling you – i live here and Mitt wins by 5 points or more. Won’t be close.

      • Mike_S
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:55 am | Permalink

        I live in Toledo, Ohio and I can tell you without a doubt that Romney will win Ohio…by a MINIMUM of 5%…bank on it.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Win by 100k in OH? That’s 1.8%. We can do better.

  10. damien
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    you know its just a last minute hail mary…trying to get around ohio….or something like that

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Peter says RCP average…..

      • Pete
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

        Lol! Good ole Peter.

  11. TheTorch
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Would it not be ironic, and sweet justice, if they lose PA due to the Catholic vote?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As a Catholic, it would be “Divine”.

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

        I am Catholic too, and I second that Divine!

      • Tedley
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

        I’m really not Catholic – and it would be triple devine.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You guys are funnnnny.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      oh, so THAT’s what they mean when they say itt’s doing a Hail Mary play 😉

      • Ben
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

        Agreed on the differing rally’s in Ohio helping you put that race in perspective. Obamas crowds were a fraction of Romney’s. You can’t buy natural passion. It doomed McCain and will be Obamas downfall. I am confident again.

  12. Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Im getting a sick feeling that obma is going to win. I feel like the media is trying their best to help push him over the line. I need some encouragment fellas

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Watch one of R/R’s rallies over the weekend. It will make you feel better. I was in panic mode until I watched the West Chester rally. Obama pales beside Mr. Romney.

      • Aaron
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:16 am | Permalink

        I agree watching that gave me clear eyes and a full heart

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Easy remedy.

      The Obama Campaign is utilising there most precious resource and wheeling it out to save the day (War On Women):

      Sandra Fluke Rally – 40 People !
      http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/02/Sandra-Fluke-s-momentary-celebrity-is-gone

      • Pa John
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

        How bout we just give that tramp $10 bucks a month to cover her free birth control

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

        Guess people are keeping away from her lady parts.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

        She’ll run for Congress in N. Virginia…and probably win.

    • SpiritOF1776
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      troll

    • Philanthropic_Extortionist
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ve been on that roller coaster lately too. Relax. Do yourself a favor and enjoy the weekend. Detach from the TV, it’ll do you a ton of good. Read this blog and this blog only, because at this point its out of all of our hands. Take solace in the fact that Romney’s team is obviously light years ahead of the Chicago machine in terms of strategy and timing.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

        I agree. Anyone know any novels about a country fighting a war on foreign soil and the press won’t report it? 1984, I guess. Anyway, that’s how I feel right now, like Romney’s beating the stuffin out of the 0 and nobody will report it.

    • TheShaz
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Relax. Vote your heart out on Tuesday or earlier if your state allows it.
      Just look at the pictures of Romney Rallies and Obama Rallies – they are like night and day.

      I plan on DVR’ing both FOX NEWS and M$NBC on Tuesday night – when they call the race for Romney around 10pm, I will switch to M$NBC for the sheer entertainment value.

      I am in the Tampa, FL area – Florida is going to Romney in a big way.

      Relax, the media up to the last moment will make it look like Obama is winning or “Too close to call”. That is fine by me, I don’t want my side to get to comfortable.

      • beach91
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

        Hey Shaz…I am in Pinellas and was wondering if you know anything about the senate race here. Not much out in the way of polls. If Romney wins big here then maybe Mack is taken to the finish line on Romney’s coattails.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I was watching CNN earlier this evening and King sure didn’t look confident about Obama winning in Ohio, He talked about the energy and enthusiasm seemed in the Republican camp. They showed Romney’s giant rally and then showed a shot of Obama’s venue after the fact and it looked tiny and that much worse.

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:32 am | Permalink

        It’s falling apart in the MSM. Jake Tapper has this lovely tweet to his NBC counterparts about their laughable Ohio poll. The poor guy then tweeted out an “unskew” of his poll.

    • David
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Be encouraged. There, how’s that?

    • arizona rules
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Look at the facts at not the polls. Ohio: McCain got 47% in 2008. All of those voters will stay Romney. All he needs is 3% more. Come on look at the rallies, look at the actual voter turnout, look at the hacked of white catholics…he will get 3% and more…Ohio is Romney’s..and so to then is the path to winning…

      • Mk
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:32 am | Permalink

        Cincinnati has a huge Catholic population, and you can bet a large portion of the West Chester rally was pissed off Catholics. Way more Catholics than auto-workers here.

  13. me
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One problem is Obama is not doing as well in critical Cayahoga county Ohio this time in EV as in 2008. He needs padding there relative to Romney’s number in GOP areas and suburb pick offs. The debate is rural evangelicals, Santorum backers, will they hold their noses and vote for Mittens enough? With increased R registrations and EVs, we may have enough Republican strength this time to narrowly win the state.

    • Formmb
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Did Grey tweet stuff that was not favorable for Romney tonight? Something about certaon OH counties not doing well today in EV? Just looking for confirmation. Saw it on another site. Exhausted from all of this.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And why was he in Lima, a GOP stronghold that usually is 65-35 for the GOP? You’ve got problems turning out people in Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, and Cincy and you go to Lima and Springfield. Springfield is close to Dayton, but you’d better shore up Montgomery County before you go to Springfield and Clark County. Just over 135,000 in Clark County (maybe he was confusing Clark County, OH for Clark County, NV?) and 88% white and just over 100,000 in Allen County (Lima’s county) with 85% of the population white. Both are generally GOP areas and both are very unlikely to have any give for Obama. The Franklin County appearance makes sense, but this looks like a very weak attempt to appear like he’s going after Romney’s turf in areas he has no chance to make an significant gains in.

      He could’ve been in Dayton or Cleveland or Youngstown. Obama was supposed to be in Youngstown on Monday but has not rescheduled. Guess coal and fracking country aren’t good places to go.

      And Biden goes to Fremont. Obama got Sandusky County last time, but it’s a tiny county of about 60,000.

      Also, Obama’s rallies in Lima and Springfield were heavily attended by high school students because they were held at their school and it was a chance to see the President. Most of them probably can’t vote. I think that Obama was trying to show that he could draw crowds in rural Ohio too – and he failed. They probably didn’t have the courage to book a place like Romney did because their crowd would look pathetic in comparison. Will be interested if he can draw 30-40K to his rally in Cincy tomorrow. I doubt it.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here’s Grey’s “troubling” tweet:

      OHIO: A big day showed up for Obama in my bellwether counties. Dems now 5.8% off 2008…when they won by 4.6%. All signs to dead heat.

      I think he had Dems off 7-8% a few days ago. Not a huge deal…yet. Bears watching.

    • edtitan77
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think folks forget about the foreclosures in Cleveland. I know I’ve seen some PBS stuff on the depopulation there. There simply may not be any voters there to make up the difference if the rest if state moves more to Romney.

  14. Neil in NC
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey Folks,

    Here is a very interesting article by Ronald Brownstein. Have a look at the historical chart.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/in-a-twist-obama-the-democrat-is-depending-on-ohio-20121101

  15. Ryan
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Everyone should be making calls from home via the volunteer from home program on romneys site. Call directly into Ohio, etc and make sure the soft Rs get out and vote

  16. Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    RCP average has the nat’l numbers basically tied at 47%. If I had offered you these numbers with 3 days to go, along with the following:

    1)Romney running heavy ads in PA, and Clinton there all day on Monday before the election
    2)Obama making two stops in WI the week before the election
    3)A major polling company pulling out of VA and FL, and 2 compoanies stating Romney has “all but clinched” FL
    4)Both campaigns running ads in MN and campaigning there

    You would have taken it in a heartbeat. We have an incumbent well below 50%(and he has been there for a long time), Romney winning independents in virtually every national poll, and both Gallup and Rasmussen turnout models showing the highest Republican turnout potential on record. Granted, I’d much rather be 10% ahead in all the polls, but those days are gone. The best either side will do is win 30 states in a country this divided. So lets get out there, walk a precinct, make phone calls, wave signs, and above all pray. WHATEVER IT TAKES!!! This is it, we are in the 15th round and are going for the KO. So lets do it.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks jp, you always have new stuff for me to think about. I really like the details about polling companies pulling out of of VA and FL. Do you happen to have a link for that?

      • jpcapra1
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:56 am | Permalink

        Suffolk pulled out of NC, VA, and FL about 3 wks ago. Mason-Dixon, a very reputable state polling firm, said a week ago Romney would win FL barring a miracle. They had another poll yesterday that has Romney up in FL 51-45, virtually identical to the poll earlier this month.

  17. Aaron S.
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Small update from earlier today. I spoke again to my friend from Ohio. She lives in the Cleveland area. She’s deeply conservative, but not a Republican. She’s very jaded with the corporate influences on politics in the country, and she was going to vote for Gary Johnson. She doesn’t like Romney very much, and kept telling me that it bothers her that we seem only to have millionaires as presidents now, and normal people can’t be elected…

    Anyway, to make a long story short, I conceded the Romney wasn’t perfect, but that Obama was a nightmare. In the end she decided she’d vote for Romney, if for nothing else than to stop the Obama bleeding.

    So I convinced someone in Ohio to vote for Romney. 🙂

    I feel like I’ve helped some how.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Your a true American hero. 😉

    • Formmb
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It scares me that people are willing to throw their votes away. Heh – just saw Powell on an ad by the Obama team. I am in PA and we just started to get ads this week. The first Obama ad I have seen (not a third party). First one. I have been skeptical but something could be brewing here. Guess I have been burned before and don’t want to go all in on my state.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

        Just saw the same ad here in S. WA….we get t.v. from across the river in OR.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wish I had a like button to press below your post.

  18. arizona rules
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    An Actual Early ELECTION (real voting not a poll) of 310 had Romney 61% and Obama 39%. This was an actual election at my kids high school today. We live in Gabby Giffords District! What the polls say and what we see is very different. Youth for Obama….Hmmmm……

    4 years ago Obama hit Arizona hard and Obama mania was everywhere. I rarely ever even see a bumper decal anymore. I know Arizona is not in play but it is representative of the trend we are seeing.

    IGNORE THE POLLS THEY ARE OUT TO MAKE MONEY AND WILL PICK WHATEVER RESULT THEY THINK GETS PEOPLE TO READ..PEOPLE MEAN WEB HITS WHICH MEAN MORE ADVERTISING.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      AZ is going solidly for RR…probably by 10 points…now if this was from Franklin Co, OH…

  19. Keep To The Right
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting article that mentions Keith’s excellent analysis of the ethnic mix of 2012 compared to 2008, using census data as opposed to CNN’s exit poll data.
    As Keith did, the article points out what a tremendous difference in the election outcome, depending on which data you use. It’s a fairly balanced article.
    Congrats to Keith for being on the frontlines again & ahead of the crowd in his analysis of this election. Here’s the link:

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/265515-ethnic-mix-of-electorate-gives-campaigns-sleepless-nights.

  20. No Tribe
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    SalenaZito
    ‏@SalenaZitoTrib
    Bill Clinton in Ohio today said “I’m Honored To Be Here In Pennsylvania” http://goo.gl/Ir7Vi

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They’re falling apart.

      • Ron
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:52 am | Permalink

        More likely PA is heavy on the mind. Shows he’s worried.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      LOL. Hey Bill, those are Ohio State sweatshirts on the kids behind you!!! You think maybe there’s a reason for that? Oh yeah, cause you were speaking at OSU?

  21. No Tribe
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/24/yes_pennsylvania_really_is_up_for_grabs_114595.html

    Yes, Pennsylvania Really Is Up for Grabs
    By Salena Zito – June 24, 2012

  22. Formmb
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    BTW – Colin Powell in this ad pretends to be some type of expert on the economy. Give me a break. The ad was weak and without detail. It is very clear what the strategy is with him.

  23. arizona rules
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    TCJ November 2 Polling: Florida: 52R-46O R+3 Michigan: 50O-48R D+2 Iowa 50R-47o R+3 New Mexico 520-47R D+9 National 50R-47O D+2

    All polls 1000 people with MOE 3%. Look at this and suddenly we feel much different…it is all in the weighting and these are reasonable weighting especially D+2 nationally

    Polls create what they want so don’t freak over every poll that comes out…key is turnout and what we see so far MUY BUENO

    • Formmb
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They aren’t a legit firm.

      • Dan
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

        Is PPP legtimate? They’re new so they are suspect? What’s the criteria…just curious?

      • arizona rules
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

        actually they are and they even post their record over the past elections and they did a real effective job…

        …only not legit because they have the audacity to weight their polls favoring a stronger Rep. turnout…

        If you have a problem with the internals, then make it…but if you just don;t like the outcome hmmmm

      • Formmb
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

        Just go to their website. No mention of who runs the polls. No mention of who owns them. No mention of much of anything. Who is their management? Just some guys scamming imo.

        Agree on PPP – fraud. I think they slant every poll they do towards the Dems. This group, TCJ, popped up in 2010 and had Christine O’Donnell in the MOE very late in the campaign. It is fiction. Don’t buy it. Internals have more credit-ability.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

        There internals aren’t that far fetched. Not as ridiculous as some of these D+9 Ohio surveys. Maybe if Romney wins the story won’t be that the polls were wrong, it will be that the polls that called it were not published.

      • Formmb
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

        You mean the “7 house polls”? That doesn’t sound like a joke to you? Why not mention their O’Donnell poll? Ask who funds them? Ask who owns them? I have. The only answer – “We can’t disclose that information”.

        Now, I agree totally on PPP, Marist and Quinn. 100% slanted polls. These are separate issues though.

      • glasssx
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

        TCJ posted their 2010 results against actuals, I also verified them against internet postingss of the time. I found their results to be in line with other reputable pollsters… senate races somewhat off, governor and congressional races were pretty accurate.

      • Formmb
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

        We could make up polls as well. It isn’t that difficult as PPP proves time and again.

        So, Powell is now an economic expert? Just saw the ad yet again.

      • glasssx
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

        see tcjresearch.wordpress.com/ they make it pretty clear about who backs them. They’re essentially the counterpart to PPP.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      OK, here’s a few comments from an Interested Party.

      (1) I told everyone 3-4 weeks ago that PA was in play. Seems I was right.

      (2) I live in Western PA, in the affluent ring suburbs of Pittsburgh that Barone is talking about. People are voting strongly against O . It’s even worse in the exurbs like Peters, Butler, and Washington, PA. Coal, gas, and oil fracking are about to turn us into a mini-Houston in the next 5-10 years, and they know O and his environmental idiots would try to block it. Nothing he says or does now at the last minute, even a visit by Clinton, is going to change that view.

      (3) What’s also interesting, as a sidebar, is the chemical industry that’s about to sprout around Youngstown ($2 billion ethylene plant that Chevron wants to build) as well as the 5-10 billion barrels of oil they just found under Canton in OH. Again, nobody thinks O is going to be all excited to develop this. This will hurt O big time in the Canton-Akron area, and reduce his margins in Youngstown.

      (4) R is just about the only kind of Republican who can win in PA. He’s a lot like Corbett, the present governor. The moderates around Philly to the North who are looking for a reason to vote against O have found their guy. That, plus the West, gives R a real shot.

      (5) Casey has run a terrible campaign. He basically did nothing, and his lone ad attacking Smith as a Tea Party zealot is atrocious. He’s going to lose. Smith has outspent Casey at least 5-1.

      (6) Rothfus has been bitch slapping Critz with anti-O ads linking Critz to O non-stop for a month in Western PA. This reminds everyone of O’s badness, and a last minute, obvious throw in plea by Bill Clinton won’t make a whit of difference.

      (7) The voter ID law will still have an effect. You can be asked for ID, but you don’t have to produce it. This will scare away some of the Philly vote. Sandy has also damaged some of South Philly and the South suburbs near Wilmington. People are more concerned with getting their power back on than making a lukewarm O vote. The typical Philly vote is going to be down a few hundred K.

      (8) Team O has been caught with their feet off the gas on this one. It’s too late to change at this point. I think this was a hidden stealth move all along by Team R.

      (9) Believe the Susquehanna Poll. They nailed PA in 2010, and understand the electorate. R was up by 4 ten days ago (49-45) with a decent partisan split and a decent age split as well. They have been 2-3 weeks ahead of anyone else on this. Their last poll comes out Sunday. My guess is that it will put the liberal blogosphere on a death watch if their heads don’t explode first.

      (10) Finally, the PA voters are a lot like OH voters, with an even more D lean in the East and in Allegheny County. If R has a real shot here, what does that really tell you about OH, a state that has an even more traditional R lean?

      (11) OH will be close, perhaps, as the early vote count gets everyone nervous, and may take a while. When PA is called for R around 9-10 PM, it won’t make a difference, will it?

      • Ron
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:36 am | Permalink

        Susquehanna Polling came out with a new poll today. R up by 4, 49-45%. Smith up 2, 48-46.

  24. Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    just reading everybodys replies is helping relieve my anxiety. Thanks everyone.

  25. jeff
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ALERT NEW POLL ROMNEY AHEAD BY 4 IN PA…

  26. Kiki
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    BREAKING: Pennsylvania: Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/02/romney-ahead-of-obama-in-pennsylvania-by-four-romney-leading-president-obama-49-to-45-among-1376-likely-voters/

    • bks
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Funny that article links to the Pennsylvania Republican party!? Do you have a link to the poll itself so that I can examine the crosstabs and internals. You can’t just accept the top line numbers, you know.

      –bks

      • jeff
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

        Theyre considered among the most accurate PA polls. Thats why its huge.

      • Patrick
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

        The mid october one (also showing Romney +4) was D+6 But the racial makeup was not representative at 88% white.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

        Poll was done by Susquehanna, they’re legit. By the way, are PPP polls legit? Marist?

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Looks great. but like bks – need to see internals

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Susquehanna. They were among the first to say PA was in play. Dick Morris has been polling with PA (and is very familiar with PA) and he has said they show Romney up 3. Internals are important. But Susquehanna knows PA quite well. Also have noticed that a lot of firms tend to underpoll the GOP compared to results by 2-4 points but don’t underpoll Dems near as much.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

        HA! Looks like Susquehanna released their poll a few days early. Ahead of the curve, as usual.

        Of course the usual suspects in the MSM will state it’s an R poll, don’t believe it, etc, while spouting quotes from PPP and Marist.

        The campaigns are both acting like its true. It likely is. They have a long post about their internals on their website.

        It’s typical D arrogance. They believed their own hype, and likely are going to lose PA since they couldn’t believe it could possibly vote against the greatest human ever to walk the planet.

        Too f-ing bad, Valerie Jarret. Too f-ing bad. Maybe you can give our diplomats the same security escort you gave yourself for your last 8 weeks in power.

        If this happens, I’m so proud of my state.

  27. Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dan, PPP has been around, but they are a Dem outfit, very biased, and their sampling is terrible…not to worry.

    • Dan
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I know John. I was trying to understand why someone would throw out the TCJ result within 2 minutes of it being posted by “Arizona Rules”. and AZ does rule by the way.

      • arizona rules
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

        Thanks Dan…AZ does rule 🙂 They toss the poll because they do not like the outcome. RCP would never use TCJ despite sample size of 1000 and pretty good track record in past elections…why…because TCJ weights based on what they perceive to be higher Rep. turnout.

  28. jeff
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    SUSQUEHANNA POLL ROMNEY AHEAD BY 4.
    The flood gates have opened! Mitt you magnificent bastard PA is not a head fake after all. Im so excited I dont know whether to laugh or cry with joy…Go Mitttmentum!!!!

    • Aaron S.
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Might just have a heart attack if these internals hold up.

  29. Kiki
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN Ohio Poll: Romney Up 13 Among Election-Day Voters

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/02/cnn-ohio-poll-romney-up-13-among-election-day-voters/

    • Formmb
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is a great number. I am sure they are saying Obama is up 35 or something ridiculous so they can come up with an Obama victory. IMO – if that number holds, then Romney wins OH.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And reality of the numbers indicate that he is even or slightly up in early vote/absentee. Remember, McCain won election day in Ohio 2008. Obama banked hundreds of thousands of votes to get the win their. Not doing the same now.

  30. David
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow, that’s awesome! Hope Axlerod has a good razor handy.

  31. Kiki
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

     

  32. tay
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Clinton seems to be O’s only surrogate (compare to R’s 100 fanning out from Ohio after tonight’s rally in West Chester). Bill must be piling up chips for HC in 16.

  33. Kiki
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dick Morris: In The Last Few Hours, Sudden Danger Signs In Polling (Christie Hurts Romney)

    http://www.dickmorris.com/in-the-last-few-hours-sudden-danger-signs-in-polling/

    • Formmb
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The biggest con man in the GOP. Just a vessel to sell books. Told us all what we wanted to hear then tries to get an out at the last second.

  34. cacitizen
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sesquahanna is the polling firm that many congressional candidates use for their individual races. They’ve done many of them (50 races or so – congress for state and federal, senate races, etc). I am not sure about their reputation about presidential polls.

    • bks
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Susquehanna is a GOP house polling organization:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susquehanna_Polling_%26_Research

      –bks

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

        So? PPP for Ds? What’s the problem?

      • bks
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

        PPP has a history of being right on the money in national elections. Susquehanna is a House GOP polling organization.

        –bks

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

        Which means Susquehanna is probably the best of the bunch since they focus on district dynamics. They likely use their House polling in PA of districts help them compile exactly what the electorate looks like. House district polls are the best unless you do county polling like the Presidential campaigns often do. Susquehanna likely distills their House polling into a smaller pool, get the turnout data from those more localized polls, matches up the population data, and then builds the model.

        This is probably why they were the first to say PA is in play. The noticed the trend lines in their House polling that would ask people who they supported at the top of the ticket.

        My guess is that we will find Susquehanna is fairly accurate.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

        OK, so … does that mean they are necessarily wrong?

        I agree, we need to see the internals, but if they ar ok, do you just dismiss them out of hand?

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:03 am | Permalink

        They have usually been D+6, which would probably range from just about right to slightly oversampling Democrats. I believe that we have seen PA go down to D+2 in the past. The real key here is the Philly suburbs, Pittsburgh suburbs, and SW PA are swinging. If it’s D+6 that could spell real trouble for Obama because D+4 is realistic and if Romney is up 4 with D+6 he’ll be up by 5 or more with D+4.

        A 5 point win in PA would be great. Would mean an early night because I’d expect Ohio to go along with it. Think FL and VA are already in the bag. Once all four of those are called for Romney, the election would be called too. You add FL, VA, OH, and PA to the guaranteed Romney states and its over before we even get to Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, or Colorado.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

        Susquehanna is local to PA, and while they have been hired by the PA GOP, they are non-partisan.

      • Fred S
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:14 am | Permalink

        There was a podcast with the Pres. of Susquehanna that was posted on this blog a couple of days ago. They work with Republicans in PA so they know the state and what is happening at the local level. Since they poll by district they have greater insights into the trends and motivations of various groups throughout the state. These nuances may be missed by firms that come in to poll only state wide or national elections every couple of years. These guys have a business to run and would not run a poll that is way off the mark – their success is built on calling the race correctly. If they are right and the oterh poll are wrong, they look like rock stars.
        I think this is fabulous news. If PA goes red, Ohio is even more certain to flip to Romney.

    • SR
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      here is an interview that Ed Morissey from HOT AIR did with them…the outfit seems very credible.
      http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/01/video-pa-pollster-calls-state-too-close-to-call-discusses-polling-bias-and-criticism/

      • Fred S
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:16 am | Permalink

        This is the podcast of the Susquehanna interview I refer to.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

      Susquehanna predicted Toomey by 2 (it was 2) and Corbet by 7 (was 9) in 2010 @coltsfan4jesus @nj1000_paul @NumbersMuncher @LSchweikart

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:00 am | Permalink

        Correct, Brad. Looks like we have something real here, with all the campaign movement confirming it.

  35. Brad
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    FL looking good….

    NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

    Mason-Dixon poll of FL has Romney up 6, 51-45, based on independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats. http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3080246/poll-mitt-romney-maintains-lead.html

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is the Tampa Bay Times (formerly St. Pete Times – known locally as Pravda West)/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll. These are people that want Obama to win, but they prefer to have an accurate number to tout. The Times originated the Politifact outfit and feels good polling will lend credibility to all aspects of their paper, including Politifact.

      This poll has consistently shown Romney up here in FL by 5-7 points. I think it’ll end up in the 7-10 point range for Romney.

  36. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    No internals yet as far as i can find.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The internals are likely the same as their last poll of about 10 days ago, which showed the same result. PS–they polled me last Thursday night.

      • Ron
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:49 am | Permalink

        In Lee’s interview he mentioned how his outfit is consistent in the weighting, unlike other pollsters.

  37. Flowersfriend
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    Can I just say thank you for this blog???? I am sane and sober because of it. I have more hope for our future than I have had in 4 years! Go Romney, and count me in on drinking champagne while watching the MSNBC train wreck should Romney take an early lead!

    • Ken
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink | Reply

      Ditto.

    • Porchlight
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:14 am | Permalink | Reply

      Ditto. This blog has been fantastic. Keith’s analysis is fabulous and so are the commenters.

  38. cbr66
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:19 am | Permalink | Reply

    Just saw Battlegrounds favorite pundit Rachel Maddow. I was starting to wonder if PA was really in play and then she reminded me that McCain, GW, Dole, Bush 1 also campaigned in PA on the last days of the election.

    • jeff
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      I just cant wait to tune in on msnbc on election night and watch that lesbo marxist and her colleagues fall apart when the returns start coming in showing Obama losing and hopefully big.

      • cbr66
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:27 am | Permalink

        Whatever floats your boat.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      Gore and Kerry campaigned in Florida too, but that didn’t stop Obama from flipping it in ’08. PA has been in play sometimes. It was really tight in ’00… so tight they called it for Gore while Bush was still ahead in the vote count.

      • cbr66
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:54 am | Permalink

        Yes but Mcain, Dole and HW Bush all lost by 10. My point is just because he is going there doesn’t mean it is in play. Campaigns on both sides always fight to the end. It is often more about down ballot reaces than the presidential race. Romney won’t lose PA by 10 but he will lose PA. It is very hard to overcome a 1million deficit in party registration.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:59 am | Permalink

        Ed Rendell said Mitt might win there.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:03 am | Permalink

        And the polls and campaign activities say it’s in play. Obama made a small push for Alaska based on one poll that showed it relatively close too. So it cuts both ways. He thought it was in play so he dipped his campaign in the waters there, similarly with Montana. Saying it’s in play doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed win for either side, it just means there’s a shot.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink

        The Susquehanna guy was interviewed by Ed Morrissey. He knows his state backwards and forwards, and polls for every PA State Senate district. He likely has a better pulse on his state than anyone polling. He said that in PA there is a lot of crossover voting in Western PA, and the key is to hold down your margins in the Philly area. Looks like R is doing that, and has an excellent chance to win.

        I think team O is going to be a bit too late on this one. You can’t rev up a GOTV operation (they were disbanding it) in 72 hours.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:17 am | Permalink

        Of course it is in play. McCain went there but Obama ignored him because he knew it wasn’t worth bothering with. He’s not ignoring the push this time, is he? He’s scrambling to GOTV. Same with Wisconsin.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:09 am | Permalink | Reply

      What does she know? If PA is lost, it’s all over. They can’t comprehend that. Wow–what a finish, if true.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:47 am | Permalink | Reply

      You are correct in play doesnt mean it is automatic means just a shot.

      Yes the the others played there but they were polling down 10. Only Bush 41 did well.

      The other take away is its one thing for Rom to buy ads or drop by. But the level they have jumped and the fact Obama jumped in as well wifh ads and sending in biden and clinton, that is a sign both sides saw something thepublic polls arent showing.

      Now i contend Romney wont take PA MN or Mi and WI is possible but hard. That said my gut says both camps have internals that have shown Romney within the margin of error in PA and it spooked Obama and they knew they hand to shore up a rising tide.

      Again my gut says it is still Obamas to lose and again my gut says winner is 285 or fewer in the EC.

      But there is the legit chance a tiny nudge of a big repub turnout mixed with undecideds breaking romneys way large that you could see NH, IA, OH, PA, WI, CO all go his way and there by a fairly large electoral win

      Same could go Obamas way to with slim wins in all those states and he hit nearly 300

      Gonna be a pizza and whiskey night for me, going to hate work wednesday morn if a late night

  39. billyboy
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    new nbc poll has Obama up 2 in Florida, help me!

    • jeff
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:34 am | Permalink | Reply

      NBC is delusional if they think Obama is gping to win FL

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:36 am | Permalink

        Could have stopped at “NBC is delusional.” We all know that already.

      • Aaron
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:50 am | Permalink

        I have said it before on here I live in Florida and travel all over the state Romney will win by at least 5. Relax when it comes to Florida last I heard there was talk that Obama might not even carry broward county he is toast in this traditionally red state.

      • M. White
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:52 am | Permalink

        I will say this again as I have said before, this is desperation…They want to use this scheme as a tool of voter supression. They hope they can convince Republicans that all is lost, Obama is going to win, no need to vote on election day! It’s an old trick that’s been used in many different ways over the years. They talk about Republicans wanting people to show ID to vote as voter suppression but they are the ones trying to suppress the vote. After all that is has been told about electronic voter machines in 6 states, people complaining about votes being switched to Obama when people were pressing Romney, the Justice Dept. didn’t step in to look at the problem but today in Miami, minorities were having to stand in long lines and guess what??? All of a sudden the Justice Dept, shows up claiming discrimination! So people having to wait in long lines is voter suppression but not votes being switched on actual voting machines. The Justice Dept. tried to get the FL Gov. to extend early voting and he refused, thank goodness. What’s fair for one is fair for all. If people don’t racism then stop acting like a victim and stand in line like the rest of us! Makes me sick…Ann Coulter has it right…everyone wants to be a victim so they can complain endlessly about voter suppression, discrimination and all of the rest of the crazy shit. Get over it. If we want a united America then as I said…fair for one, fair for all!

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:25 am | Permalink

        My parents are in Palm Beach County and say the signs are overwhelmingly Republican as are the calls and mailings.

    • Pete
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:02 am | Permalink | Reply

      Troll alert

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yawn. Miami Herald, or NBC? Hmmm. Miami Herald, or NBC….

    • edtitan77
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      NBC is not even standing by their own poll. They know its ridiculous. There is simply no indication Obama will win by 5.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      Thing to watch on a lot of the polls is that people are saying they’ve already voted to get through the screen. The strongest poll asks for some voting history even if you say you’ve voted. So many of them are getting too many early voters compared to the electorate and it skews it.

      Another problem is that most of these polls are macro targets and don’t pay as much attention to population distribution and weighting the population in addition to party, race, gender, and age weights. To build a proper electorate model you have to try to get the electorate right. So for Florida you need to accurately reflect the different areas of the state based on the size of their population against the state population and their trends in voter turnout. So Miami Metro is around 5.5 million and the Tampa Bay is 4.2 million against a state population of around 19 million, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. How many registered voters in each area? What are the historic turnout rates?

      Good polling has to microtarget to represent a state properly. Presidential campaigns usually do the most sophisticated polling, either by congressional district or by county. There are 27 districts in the state and often district polling contacts 400-500 people, so in Florida you are looking at a sample of at least 10,000 for the state. You then weight each district by percentage of voters in the state, party splits, racial composition, etc. Then you piece it all together to create a poll with a super small margin of error.

      But these state polls don’t do that. They are done on the cheap and they rarely log which areas they are calling. How much did NBC’s pollsters call to Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Lucas Counties compared to Hamilton, Montgomery, or others in Ohio? If 30% of the calls went to Cuyahoga then the poll is off because Cuyahoga is 10% of the state population and probably slightly less than 10% of the state electorate due to lower turnout there.

      The people that have the best idea are the campaigns themselves. We have heard that they have two turnout models and both are worried that the other guys might be right, but the data trends in national polls and in actual early voting numbers do not support the Democratic wave model. In fact, they show that the R+0 to R+3 party ID polls of Pew, Gallup, and Rasmussen are far more likely – and most polling over states Democrat strength.

  40. billyboy
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    Bravo, M white, well said and Aaron thanks for the input I can have a gin and tonic now

  41. erica
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think the first order of business for all conservatives and moderates after the election is to see to it that NBC undergoes a complete makeover or else we start a campaign to destroy its profits. Then, let that be a lesson to all other networks that we expect journalism, real journalism, to return.

  42. erica
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 1:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    We gotta get WI.

3 Trackbacks

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  3. By Clinton to Pennsylvania « Blogs For Victory on November 3, 2012 at 1:06 pm

    […] Is Obama worried about the Keystone state? If you weren’t sure before, this says it all. […]

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