Democrats Not Going Down Without a Fight in Clark County Early Voting

To be the champ you have to beat the champ and if Republicans win in Nevada they will have earned it. Democrat enthusiasm may not be what was statewide in 2008 but the Clark County machine is getting the job done for Democrats.  The trend is not the friend of Republicans right now but the biggest day of early voting is still left. Questions will remain unknown until election day regarding cannibalizing high propensity voters but thus far Democrats have answered the bell in Clark County early voting.  On Thursday Democrats cast 15,675 ballots compared to Republicans who cast 9979 ballots for a 5696 net gain. These types of wins are a big deal for Democrats because they are underperforming everywhere else in the state.  The Independent/Other vote held pace with the Thursday upswing casting 6956 ballots.  Overall there was a 16% day-over-day increase in activity.  With Democrats performing strongly, albeit below their 2008 margin, winning the Independent vote grows increasingly important in Clark County and across the state.

 

 

14 Comments

  1. Dabrisha
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:43 am | Permalink | Reply

    Jobs numbers, jobs numbers, jobs numbers will determine if we get back our momentum

    • Adam
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      Whatever number is released, it will be a total fabrication and adjusted up a week after the election.

    • Philanthropic_Extortinist
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      Jobs #s won’t mater either way. People have made up their mind. Plus, the numbers are so questioned that nobody takes them seriously anymore.

    • Jim S.
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      Unemployment ticks up to 7.9%, probably doesn’t mean much but this makes for a pretty rough news cycle for Obama headed into the weekend.

  2. Tina
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    So what is the net difference between Ds and Rs statewide? Is it 40,000 now.

  3. Jon
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    Don’t think Neveda is in the cards

  4. Benson
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    Sadly- I agree that Nevada is a tough sell now. But that doesn’t quell my optimism. If Dems get Nevada they deserve their high unemployment and under water mortgages.

    • KN
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed. The very fact that they sent back Harry Reid to the Senate shows they deserve what they get. I just hope we can keep all Nevadans and Californians from moving to purple and red states where they bring their idiotic politics with them. Frankly, when I see what is happening in NYC and Jersey, while I do feel bad for the truly needy (children), I just don’t feel sympathy for everyone else. Sorry Northeasterners. We try to like you. We really do, but the animosity and disdain you always show towards those of us “uneducated hicks” down here in flyover country reached a critical point a long time ago, and now that the tables are turned and you all are the ones suffering and hurting and begging for our hard-earned money to give to the Red Cross, to that, I simply flick my thumb at you. Maybe this could be the tipping point that will tell you to never, ever elect leftist politicians. Unfortunately, I still thin k you are all too dumb to realize that. You made your bed, now you have to lie in it.

  5. Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    I lived in Las Vegas for 13 years until a year ago. So, I’ve seen some elections there. I’m wondering if there is any indication that the Dems have cannabilized their votes by getting their high-propensity supporters to show up early. And, could that be the reason they still hold a big lead? Meaning: just because they’re still ahead in early voting doesn’t mean even close to the same amount as 2008 are going to show up at the polls on Nov. 6.

    Also, I’d like to see how 2012 compares in early voting to 2004 when W won NV.

  6. Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama’s campaign slogan in Nevada has been “Vote Early” not “Forward”.

  7. rcl_in_va
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not sure what to make of this or if it has any implications for election day. Comparing early voting this year to ’08 is very interesting.
    DEMs started well from the first Saturday through Friday (7 days). However, each day added fewer and fewer ballots when compared with ’08 to the point where the Saturday mid-point was only 300 ballots more than the same day in ’08. The following day (Sunday) and every day after the ballot count was fewer than in ’08. Graphically it looks like parabola or Gaussian curve. Today the comparison with ’08 stands at only +5,700 ballots, and if my projection is correct the final will be lower than +2,000.
    REPS also started well and continued to cast more ballots than in ’08 through Monday (10 days). That Monday was by far the REPs best day of early voting (and it’s obvious on Keith’s chart above). Tues was the first day with a lower ballot count than in ’08 (about 500 ballots) and it’s dropped every day since. It’s about +20k more than ’08 now and I project it to be about +17k at the end of early voting. Both parties ran out of gas; DEMs first on Sat and REPs the following Tues. In ’04 and ’08 the final 2 days garnered 21% and 23% of the total early vote. It looks like the final 2 days this year will garner only 16%. Bottom line; The early voters early voted in the early voting (say it 3 times fast).

  8. Kyle
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We need to go ahead and forget about Nevada. With 60% of the vote in we’re looking at:

    Dem

    44.0%

    Rep

    37.6%

    None/Oth

    18.4%

    The numbers for a Romney victory in Nevada do not add up. The good news is that we’ve pretty much got Colorado, NC and Florida in the bag. Ohio early vote looks promising. Strong Republican counties are on track to exceed their 2008 numbers while strong Dem counties are on track to fall about 20% short. This tends to imply that the democratic friendly skewing of the polls which predict 2012 dem levels in excess of 2008 is not based in reality.

  9. Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    My take on early voting so far:

    After the second to last day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 45K raw voters over Republicans; this shrinks to less than 40K when absentees that have been turned-in already are included.

    After 13 days of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 76K in Clark County. The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 79% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 11%, relative to four years ago. This results in a 71% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting. Absentees are coming in at about 1/7 of the early votes. At this 71% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 15%, or about 66K in Clark County. Assuming that early votes are about 70% of the total vote, and with an 80% turnout, this would give a lead for the Democrats in Clark County at about 75K, if a similar reduction in advantage for election day vote advantage is applied and assuming that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 71%, and 112% of the early voters).

    Washoe county continues to trend towards being an overall wash (pun intended) with a less than 1000 vote difference between Republicans and Democrats. The strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties is the only thing that is blunting the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 60K. With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K (They are already +17K for the Republicans so far) in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 50K. With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 5%. This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

    This is assuming that 2012 will play out similar to 2008 when it comes down to relative advantage between early votes, absentee votes, and election day votes. For example, the advantage for the Democrats in early voting (22% on the 13th day of early voting), dropped to 14½% by election day. Perhaps a more ominous comparison then 2008 is actually 2010. In 2010 the early vote spread matched up with the total vote spread, being 8%. If 2012 follows 2010, than the Democrats would a voter lead in Clark County of over 100 votes, with a total statewide lead of 75K votes, all else equal. This would result in not only an Obama victory, but could clench the Senate seat for Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

    Ironically, even though 2010 was a good year for Republicans in Nevada (Harry Reid’s reelection aside), the turnout trends would be worse if applied to 2012. If it is true what the RNC is saying, and the Dems have burned through far more of their high propensity voters, than a 2008 trend might be the more plausible one.

    More: http://politicalhat.com/?p=434

  10. Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Some of those Dems may be voting for Romney. And you can catch them.

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