Pennsylvania in Play Update

The pieces to the puzzle keep coming together for a Keystone State turn on November 6:

UPDATE: The rally is expected in the Philadelphia suburbs — no BS spin this is really for eastern Ohio.  Also robo-calls in Philly suburbs with an anti-Obamacare message happening.

The next Vice President Paul Ryan is stumping in Middletown, Pennsylvaia on Saturday (Harrisburg Airport)

Sources on the ground in the Philadelphia suburbs are getting robo-calls from Fred Thompson on behalf of Romney-Ryan

Pennsylvania ranks 4th nationwide in ad spending this week between the 2 camps is $13.7 million: Team Romney $10.8mm versus Team Obama $2.9mm

Romney-Ryan Billboards are on the New Jersey Turnpike in the Philadelphia suburbs

143 Comments

  1. Brian
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    More importantly, it sounds like Mitt will be in one of the critical counties outside Philly. So none of this “it’s actually about Ohio” nonsense.

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How many times I gotta say dis: the Philly surburbs is not for PA; it’s a desperation play for the swing state of New Joisey!

  2. Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    BREAKING NEWS: 14 percent of voters who supported Obama in 2008 are moving to Romney

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/01/abc-newswashington-post-poll-14-percent-of-voters-who-supported-obama-in-2008-are-moving-to-romney/

    Can’t wait for Obama to go on early retirement

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If true, this cinches it. That would move Obama down to 45.5%, and considering some of his voters won’t vote for Romney but will simply not show up on election day, he could fall lower by a point or so.

      • eli
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        Not quite. I want Romney to win but your math is wrong on two counts. First, this doesn’t mean that Obama vote total drops by 14%. Obama is still likely to win 70% of first time voters, Second, the denominator, i.e. total number of voters, may be lower than last time. Obama vote total could be 85%of what it was in 2008 plus 65%of first time 18_22 voters, and that would give him about 89%of his 2008 total. 90%of the 53%of the votes he won last time does not mean that he would win 48%this time, unless the total number of votes cast is the same in 2012 as in 2008. If the total number of voters is down 5%, then 48% of the 2008 total would be more than 50%of the 2012 total. I’m not saying that o will win, but defeating him depends heavily on republican enthusiasm as well as getting disappointed Obama 08 voters to vote for Mitt.

    • David Weed
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You left out a few things, Kiki. The article also states that 6% of McCain voters are moving to Obama, and that President Obama is making up the difference in “new voters”. You’re cherry picking one of the few positives for Romney from this poll. Basically, what this Nationwide poll of 1300 likely voters (or an average of 26 voters per state) is that the race is a dead heat nationally. But hey, if it helps you sleep at night.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If you do the numbers with the 53/46 split for obama mcain it becomes 51-46 romney AMONGST those who voted before.

      Difference is about 4.5 points. You can’t make that uup with “7% new voters” unless they split 1.25 for romney and 5.75 for obama. Which would be about 4.5 to 1, not 2 to 1.

      And then, the dog that didn’t bark, what about the OLD republican voters who didn’t vote because they knew mccain would lose, didn’t like him and didn’t want to vote against history. Add in a few percent for those.

      IBD asks this question too, I’ve never seen it that high (14%) of obama voters for romney though.

    • Dave Ped
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is another harbinger. I saw this in the IBD tracker too at the bottom. I think it was 10% of O voters were voting for Romney. That pretty much says it all.

  3. damien
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    everyone knows they only in pa cause ohio isnt coming thru or something like that…….something like that

    • Kevin
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “they only in pa”?

      Did you ever think that they might have good internal numbers coming in from Pennsylvania that shows it might be winnable?

      Obama is, on average, up by 2 points in Ohio with polls over sampling Democrats by 4 to 7 points in Ohio. Who said Ohio isn’t coming through for them?

      • Kevin
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

        Let me clarify, who said Ohio isn’t coming through for Romney.

      • Sr
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

        Think Damien is being sarcastic

      • M. White
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

        We sure are seeing many more Obama trolls on here lately…must be getting worried. I say we don’t respond to their stupid crap. Just don’t oblige them with a reply or comment! No need to argue with idiots who obviously can’t speak or write proper english. You can always tell who supports who. Liberals always seem to be nasty! Like I say, don’t reply to them….just let them show their ass!

    • Fred S
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is not McCain in 2008. Read Karl Rove’s WSJ column, which provides a factually based analysis of why Romney is well beyond McCain in Ohio. You can get the link on this blog or on RCP.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        but to be fair and not discount the other side…Obama’s GOTV crew is also bigger, better and stronger than they were 4 years ago. But his crew is working a slighly more depressed base than Romney according to conventional wisdom

      • Pete
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

        Obama’s ground game is not as accomplished as hyped. O’s sending out personal messages to recruit phone bankers, etc. Romney not so much as they appear fully staffed.

  4. Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is based on the latest ABC News/Washington Post, 14 percent of voters who supported Obama in 2008 are moving to Romney

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/01/abc-newswashington-post-poll-14-percent-of-voters-who-supported-obama-in-2008-are-moving-to-romney/

    • Ron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Republicans have requested 14% more absentee ballots than Democrats in PA. The Democrats are tanking in western PA which is coal country. The Philly swing suburbs are moving towards Romney. Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling is bullish because they’re anticipating a weak Dem turnout and strong GOP turnout not unlike 2010. The situation is real. PA often votes Republican. Just don’t give them candidates like Bush or McCain who are culturally foreign to Keystone State voters. Romney’s a good fit.

      • Pa John
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        Very good post. Spot on. There’s something going on here that many pollsters are missing.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

        That’s my instinct as well. The red/blue divide is in some cases more cultural than ideological. Since Mitt is a product of the northeast, I’d expect him to do better in those states than most people expect. We see that in how much closer CT and NJ are than expected. I also can’t believe that he will do as poorly in MA as the polls say, not when he is leading in NH, leaning in ME2 and polling fairly strong in CT

  5. Blackcloud
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “Romney-Ryan Billboards are on the New Jersey Turnpike in the Philadelphia suburbs.”

    How does that work? NJ is pretty blue, no?

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lots of commuters from northeaster Philly suburbs (bucks) into NYC and central jersey.

      • Blackcloud
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

        Right, right. I guess the wording threw me, since the NJ Turnpike is in NJ, and if you live in the Philly burbs in NJ your vote doesn’t matter, since NJ’s not going for Romney.

    • Freddy
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Christie won NJ. Eventually even moderates and soft liberals see their pocketbooks getting hurt and decides they could crash and burn financially. When it hits their pocketbook – they see the light. This storm has helped Obama somewhat.

      • Ron
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

        Has it helped Obama? He got a photo op–but people are losing patience with the slow rate of recovery. Who gets the blame for this?

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

        This is why I think Romney has a chance in PA and a smaller chance in MI. These suburbs border big dysfunctional cities run by liberals. Their taxes go up but services are marginal at best. They’re also aware that some of their dollars go to support people who make even visiting the cities a dicey proposition.
        One reason why welfare ads play well.

    • Ron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Swing suburbs outside Philly usually determine the outcomes in PA. They voted for a GOP governor and put Toomey in office in 2010. Philly and Pittsburgh is Dem country, much of the rest of the state is GOP. (Scranton-Wilkesbarre area is Democratic but with a large alienated Catholic population, Clinton voters who resent Obama for screwing Hillary). So the swing districts outside Philly will determine the outcome–as they did in 2010. According to Michael Barone, Romney should do well there. This is a real toss-up state well worthy of a Romney visit.

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I dont believe NJ would go Romney but it also is not THAT far off, it would certainly be in the next ring of states with Oregon and New Mexico

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ll shave my beard if Romney wins NJ 🙂

    • NHConservative
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lot of people from PA crossing the Walt Whitman to work in NJ.

  6. Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ABC NEWS/WAPO Poll – Obama 48.56 Romney 48.49

    Here is some interesting data: “The closer race shows another way: Among likely voters who supported Obama in 2008, he’s retaining 83 percent this year – but 14 percent are moving to Romney. Romney, by contrast, is retaining more of John McCain’s supporters, 94 percent, and losing just 5 percent to Obama. That said, Obama’s making it back among new voters: Seven percent of likely voters say they did not vote in 2008, and they favor Obama widely, by 62-34 percent.”

    Here’s my math based on if the same number of people voted in 2012 plus their stated 7% increase in new voters:

    Obama in 2008 got 69,456,897 votes….according to this poll he retains 83% = 57,649,225 votes + he gains 5% of McCains voters = 2,996,741 plus there are 7% of supposed new voters = 8,869,606 of which Obama is gaining 62% = 5,499,156 for a grand total of 66,145,122 votes.

    Romney is retaining 94% of McCain’s votes from 2008 (59,934,814) = 56,338,725 + he gains 14% from Obama’s 2008 voters = 9,723,966 plus he gains 34% of the new likely voters that didn’t vote in 2008 = 3,015,666 for a grant total of 69,078,357

    Romney 50.95% Obama 48.79%

    that was fun

    • Loach
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Seven percent of likely voters say they did not vote in 2008, and they favor Obama widely, by 62-34 percent.”

      They didn’t vote in 2008, and they are likely voters? There can’t be that many people that turned 18 in the past 4 years.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

        I always figured one key question you had to answer to make it through the likely screen was you voted at least in the last presidential or yeah I guess were a fired up 18-21 year old. Seems odd

      • kenberthiaume
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

        7 percent of likely voters is about 10 million people. There are probably 12 million who are 18-22 and were too young last time, but probaby very few of them vote. Naturalized citizens is probably worth a few million. But 10 million seems high, unless you’re counting all the dispirited repubs who didn’t vote mccain…but then it wouldn’t be 2-1 would it?

      • Dave
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

        “There can’t be that many people that turned 18 in the past 4 years.”

        They’re not. They’re the newly minted and unminted minority voters. And guess which voting block has seen the biggest increase in % population in the US under Obama? Hint: Starts with H, 8 letter word.

      • David
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

        There is one important big group of 2008 voters who are not accounted for in this calculation; those who voted for one of the 2008 candidates but who are not going to vote in this election. The ones who are still alive need to be sampled, and of course a lot of voters die, leave the country, etc. over the course of 4 years. Since the 2008 election was as lopsided as it was in Obama’s favor over McCain, it seems a reasonable assumption that more of Obama’s 2008 voters than McCain’s will not be voting at all in 2012, adding a bit more to the 2012 gap in favor of Romney.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is a 2 Pt lead for Romney. This is line with what Rasmussen has been so for about a week now.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      RCP calls it Obama + 1 but if you look close it is actually .07%

      Also, it is a D+4 (32D, 28R and 36I) and Romney leads Independents by 3%

    • John
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If 14% of Obama’s 2008 voters are now voting for Romney how can it possibly be tied in the top line numbers (now given to hundredths of a percent)? Romney should be winning in a land slide if this were true! Where do these votes go in the math. Looks like just another screwy and inconsistent poll.

      • Dave
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

        It’s all about conditioning the masses for a fradulent vote. Period. The people that run the media sources we keep citing here aren’t stupid. If there were polls with done with sample dist of D+1 or D+0 or R+2, R+1 and so forth showing a consistent Romney lead and so forth and lo and behiold O won O+6 what would be conclusion? Where did all the votes come from? This way no one qustions an Obama win. Hardly no one pays attention to skweed sample distributions yet they’re everywhere and the estbalishment knows it. Psychologically it works and logically it works. We all know how rediculously bias the MSM has been yet we take their poll numbers at face value? Are you kidding. They can report anything. Who’s going to check? Only the top line #s are disseminated. All the MSM polls, college polls, law firm polls, public radio station polls (NPR, Wisconison Pub Radio, etc.)…who do you think they want to see win? Hint: it’s about the $$$. If you’ve read my posts here in the past you know the establishment has already voted and voted for Obama likely due to the desire to see tax payer $$$ continue to inflate public stocks and personal fortunes and foot the bill off on american people. Back in Aug there was a “call” from of group of so-called economists calling for higher taxes and just a month or so ago wall street banks, and ceos issued a similar letter calling for “tax reform”. Expect to hear A LOT more of this in the next couiple years. They’ve fed at the trough of tax payer dollars for 4 years and now they want tax reform. These people could care less about social issues what they care about is $$$ and there’s a lot of that at stake with the trillions the fed has spent. I wouldn’t trust anything from MSM/corporate polls. They can say anything they want. We’re just going to have to wait and see so get out and vote.

    • Dorrin82
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I like your math skills. Hehe. 🙂

    • Ron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The really big story is that Obama isn’t at 50 percent in the ABC-WashPost poll. Do the Democrats really believe all that separates the two candidates’ numbers is a mere fraction of a decimal point?

  7. JimmyB
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I have dreams of seeing PA red – it just always seems like such a tease every cycle. Time for one last donation I think.

    • Ron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m from PA and I get annoyed with this kind of thinking. PA was a tease because it’s a state that doesn’t take a shine to candidates who are poor fits for the state. Red Staters just don’t get it. Southern candidates who wear their religion on their sleeves or Western candidates ignorant about economics don’t fare well in this state. Give us a smart Northeasterner like Rudy or Romney and he’ll do just fine.

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        Romney has a lot of support in suburbs. Everyday there are more signs popping up for him…today someone carpet bombed Lincoln Dr near Mt. Airy/Germantown (which is the heart of his support….I really think we might be able to take it.

      • Bathhouse Barry
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

        I’m a poor fit and they still voted Democrat like good bitter clingers

  8. housebroken dad
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Romney stumps in PA, the best place to go is Bucks Cty. Bucks will decide who takes PA’s EVs.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree, Bucks and Montgomery county

      • M. White
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

        They may know they are already doing well in those counties!

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      RR need to do 5-10% better in Bucks-Montco than McCain and hope Philly\Pitts don’t see turnout like 2008. It’s a long shot still but I think worth the investment. FWIW, Bucks has been pretty consistent in it’s voting over the past 3 Prez elections (46-48-45 for the REP)…so maybe this is a difficult one to move. Montco dropped significantly in 2008 (44-44-39)

      • Ron
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

        The storm has put a crimp in the Philly area. So far there are indications Pennsylvania Democrats are not too excited about this election. Absentee ballot requests are way down with Democrats, way up with Republicans.

      • exe
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        I hope you’re right Ron, but I live in the Philly area and at this point I haven’t seen any discernable signs that the storm has affected the mood in any way…except for the fact that about 90% of the yard signs were blown away 🙂

  9. exe
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The anecdotal enthusiasm here in the Philly suburbs is tangible. Every day on the way into work I count the yard signs and it is generally in the 14-2 range in favor of RR. Not to say that this translates into quantitative results, but I don’t remember anywhere near the same count for McCain or even Bush (either campaign). Wherever Mitt decides to campaign here, I will be there (hopefully it’s in Bucks!)

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I was reading on the Daily Kos (I know, I know, I have to keep an eye on the enemy.) that the Obama campaign is not real big on signs because they view it as a waste of resources that could be used for other things. I thought this was interesting since I saw tons of Obama signs in 08′ and honestly this may just be an excuse as to why there aren’t very many this time around. The poster was complaining about it though so I think it is legit. They were saying they disagree because the large amount of R/R signs versus the very small amount of Obama signs give the impression that the R/R supporters are much more enthusiastic.

      • exe
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        Fair point. I have seen 2-3 homemade O signs…So maybe the investment just isn’t there on his side. They were trumped by the one HUGE homemade RR sign in my yuppie hometown, though 🙂

      • M. White
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

        Yeah! That’s why they moved his acceptance speech in Charlotte indoors due to weather and they have already announced he will be in conference center in Chicago that only holds very few people compared to his huge outdoor election night BS last time. Also, he seems to only campaign at collleges and liberal areas. He can’t get the crowds he got 2008. They knew they couldn’t force enought people into the Bank of America stadium in Charlotte. Also, when he kicked off his campaign in Ohio he could only manage around 5,000 people for that!

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, the “signs don’t work” thing is definitely a dem talking point this election. I saw it over and over at Silver’s blog.

      • Ron
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink

        Sounds to me like another excuse–similar to the claim that Obama was interested in “more intimate” settings for rallies. Yeah, sure. They’ve been using signs to rally the troops since time immemorial. All of a sudden they’re being cost-conscious. LOL.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      which areas of PA are still without power? Will any be w/o power for the election? The “central T” is supposed to be big romney. Philly obviously not and suburbs are kind of up in th eair.

      • exe
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

        I was out of power for 2 days and many of my colleagues still are, most of the outages are in the north and east philly suburbs, particularly bucks and montgomery county. I am not aware of outages in other parts of the state.

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed. We see at worst 3:1 RR to Obama ringing couterclockwise all the way around the city to the north to south west with plenty of extreme pockets in their of much higher RR support. At worst there are areas with no signage…all worthless anectdotal but also potentially indicative. I really think that even if PA isn’t one, if its close OH is won.

    • Ron
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      Personally, I think Obama has run a Potemkin village campaign to give the illusion of great support without necessarily proving anything till Nov. 6. The bogus polls are part of it. The ads throughout the summer, the phony emphasis on Romney’s “gaffes” during his world tour, the planted suggestions in the media that Romney was finished, done, kaput–all designed to give the appearance of O winning without raising a sweat. The debates destroyed that illusion. The media is sticking with him–witness their coverup of Benghazi–but it’s all unraveling in the real world outside NY and DC.

  10. Haus
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Internal GOP polls show Romney up in Wisconsin.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332226/middle-cheese-internals-show-romney-leading-wisconsin-one-point#

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Good lord, stop posting internal polls! Geraghty is a fool for even mentioning any internal poll he sees. Posting internal polls is a sign of weakness. Campaigns NEVER TELL THE TRUTH about their internal polls.

      I think Wisconsin is close. Darn close. Romney is within a 1-2 points, but dammit Geraghty knows better.

    • bks
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Last ten external polls show: Obama +2, +5, Tie, +3, +9, +8, Tie, +5 ,+6, +5. In a bizarre coincidence the two polls best for Romney (ties) are both from Rasmussen. Hmmm.

      –bks

      • jpcapra1
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

        If it wasn’t close, obama wouldn’t be there today and I believe he is also planning on a weekend visit. Another interesting point, obama has at least 4 visits to OH and Romney has 1 or 2. That is all you need to know, where the candidates are campaigning these last few days.

  11. jvnvch
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Another sign Ohio is turning red again.

  12. Interested Party
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Told ya. Living in Western PA i’ve been saying this for weeks. They waited until O ran out of $$$ and are now pouring it on. NOt sure I would have had the balls to do it this way, but more power to them. I can’t wait for the Susquehanna Poll (I actually was robo-polled on it last week)–that will likely show R up by 4 or so and put the left wing in an orbital panic.

    • Kevin
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Could you tell the rest of us how many Obama signs are up where you live compared to four years ago. I’m pretty sure I know the answer, but I want to hear it from someone that lives in your part of the country.

      Thanks.

      • xfmrman
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

        Here in Wash. Co. it is not even close. RR, Stop the War on Coal, NoBama, etc outnumber O signs over 10/1.
        Thru Allegheny Co. see more O (7/5, RR/O) Don’t even see that many O signs in PGH. Not Sure about Butler or Westmoreland.

      • jpcapra1
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

        I am in St. Petersburg, Florida, the most liberal part of Pinellas County, which is part of the I4 corridor. I can tell you with certainty that Romney will win this county and the state. Romeny signs are far more numerous than 0bama. Extremely organized campain as well.

    • Ron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In a half hour I’ve seen 4 pro-Romney ads, 1 pro-Obama ad–this is in NE PA, The Obama ad is a no-win. It hails how home values are going up and how he’s created 5 million new jobs. Trouble is, the real estate market here is a disaster area and unemployment is over 10 percent. The pro-Romney ads are right on the money.

  13. cbr66
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I guess that is why Scott Rasmussen said Romney winning MI, PA or Minnesota was a “Republican Fantasy”. Maybe it was just a head fake.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      So, are you still a “troll for Romney,” or did you come out of the closet and I missed it? It can be hard to keep track…

  14. Kevin
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Heads up, Romney headed to Pennsylvania this Sunday. Watch for details.

    Since Western Pennsylvania is now a big energy source, coal, and shale oil, and those people vote with their paychecks, that just might flip the state to Romney.

    • Commonsenseobserver
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, he needs to hammer on shale as well, not just coal. And the economy in general.

  15. karen
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in the Philly burbs. Romney Ryan signs far out number Obama Biden signs and the bumper stickers are about equal. That was not the case in 2004 (Kerry Edwards signs far out numbered Bush Cheney) or 2008 (Obama Biden signs everywhere). I have been robocalled numerous times, was polled last week and have received the calls targeted for area Catholics.

    • karen
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Marco Rubio is also in the Philly burbs today.

      • jeff
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

        Is there any validity that Ohio may not be working out and PA is a backup?

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

        I think Ohio is going to be razor thin, regardless of who wins. The early voting data looks AWESOME for RR though. I just think they see an opportunity in PA as it has a similar makeup as OH with a lot of coal country, low minority percentage. And any state that has 0bama well below 50% is a target at this point. What the heck, he has the money to spend, and its only one trip. And it spins the narrative that he is pushing into 0bama territory.

      • exe
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

        I hope not. IMO PA is a difficult one to crack. The Democratic ticket typically winds up with a 400-500K vote surplus just from Allegheny and Philadelphia county…and the 4 suburban Phila counties (“swing counties”) account for only 1.3MM votes overall.

        Not saying that PA going red is impossible…I just think it is hard to foresee a scenarios where RR wins PA and not OH (as well as IA, WI, and potentially MI). A PA victory will be part of a huge republican wave (which could happen)

      • Ron
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

        My understanding about whether or not to go into Philly was to be made according to how close we were in the polls. If we had a good shot at winning, Romney would go into the state. Apparently the internals show the race tightening.

    • Kevin
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for the info Karen. The only way I can find out information like that is in on sites like this, Facebook, Twitter, etc, since the Obama cheerleaders aren’t covering Pennsylvania.

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      +1 – RR are 5:1 for yard signs and about 1:1 on bumpers. I am shocked where I see some of the signs though…in places where you generally would have expected to see much more O enthusiasm

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        Right on! I said the exact same thing to my fiance last weekend in the townships imediately to the south and west….very middle class, even lower middle class and Romney led with signage still…there is a tangible energy here. Exciting for me because being from Rhode Island, its exciting if the Republican party even puts a challenger against the democrat incumbents…

  16. Jody
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Love your Web site, Keith. Thanks for your analysis. I am Canadian and I hope Mitt Romney is elected President of the USA.

    Interesting point by someone named JF in a comment section on aei-ideas.org:
    “…if you’re an Obama supporter banking on the “lose the popular vote, win the electoral vote” plan, its a house of cards. All of the western low-population, 3 mandatory electoral vote states are going Romney. He builds up almost no advantage in the popular vote by winning the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana and Alaska. However, that’s nearly as many EVs as Michigan right there. Together, these states make up 1.2% of the US population and account for 2.8% of the EVs.” -JF

  17. MichaelG
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Regardless of what’s going on in Ohio you can’t put all your eggs in one basket. Romney should go after any states he can that are close. Good move. Obama doesn’t need to just lose, he needs to lose substantially!

    • MichaelG
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That said, how sweet would it be to win OH, NH, IA, WI, and PA? Very sweet indeed!

    • JGS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s the last 5 days, I’m sure the professionals advising Romney will have him go anywhere and everywhere he can either press an advantage (to keep Obama from turning a state that is close but now favoring Romney), or make up a slight disadvantage. If they’re not going to MI, then I trust they know it’s not winnable. (Or it’s a head fake and he will show up there on Monday — note how his final rally is in NH on Monday night, not sure where he’s going during the day on Monday.)

    • Dave
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Obama doesn’t need to just lose, he needs to lose substantially!”

      Yes. It needs to be wide and substantial.

    • MikeS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in Northwest Ohio (Toledo) and work throughout the state. I’ve talked to a lot of people prior to and after the debates. Ohioans are very frustrated over the last 4 years. In 2008, Obama had the perfect storm of “Hope and Change” and an economic recession. Ohio was willing to give “the new guy” a shot. Now that Obama has an actually record, we know what he is really all about. Romney yard signs outnumber Obama signs by 10 to 1. In my humble opinion after being all over the state and talking with voters…Romney will win Ohio by a minimum of 5%.

  18. KN
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Isn’t there a poll (can’t find the link – maybe someone can point me to) that showed GOP was way ahead in early voting in PA?

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No early voting in PA – only requests for absentee ballots.

      • KN
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

        Then that’s the one, but I saw something that showed Republicans way up, by double digits.

  19. Tom
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    obama is playing defense, Romney is on offense. Complete reversal from 2008. Mitt-Mentum

    • margaret
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, I agree. You can also see it in Obama’s face vs Romney – who keeps looking joyful. When was the last time we saw Obama with his nose-in-the-air look? It’s been a while. He’s not a good actor. Maybe Romney is a good actor but he certainly looks confident.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        There’s a commenter here who seems to pride himself on his psych evaluation of Romney. I find his posts plausible, and I’m something of an armchair shrink myself. I read a bit about psych and soc (for a layman). He says Romney isn’t good at acting confident when he isn’t. Suggests a psych profile similar to mine; deliberate, cautious, methodical, strategic. If I had to place Romney on that chart, I’d guess he’s a “Field Marshall” (ENTJ, if I’m remembering it right; I’m an INTJ).

      • Rujholla
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink

        Svigor – curious what chart you are talking about? Can you post a link

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

        Romney is not a good actor. He doesn’t double down if something is not working. I think he knew his campaign had issues going into October so he took more charge. He made it about choice and took Ann and Tagg’s advice to listen less to the political pros. I don’t know about the psychological profile, but I’ve read a lot on him from his own two books to two books about him.

        Firstly, Romney is a data miner. His career was all about numbers and minding the data. I guarantee you that he himself looks at polling samples, registration numbers, early voting numbers and how they correlate to his data. He is no rube when it comes to this stuff. He also is ill at ease when he’s nervous about things and confident when he’s certain. So does Mitt look pretty relaxed or nervous? The guy I saw in Florida on Saturday was relaxed, made some funny off the cuff remarks, and looked very comfortable. He didn’t say anything nasty about Obama, just criticized his policies. Very different from the embittered, little show from Obama who can’t make an argument for why he should stay in office other than trying to tear down the other guy.

        Look at Romney pre-October. Do you think he looks more relaxed and natural now and do you think he’s gotten more relaxed over the last month? I think he has and that tells you what you need to know. The numbers have continually trended towards him. He is going to the outskirts of PHILADELPHIA to finish this thing. I talked to some friends originally from Montgomery and Bucks Counties and they all were stunned that Romney is going there – and there is nothing to tell us it is a desperate move. Oversampled Democrat polls (D+9 in Ohio when it appears it was D+5 in 2008 – bad exit poll correction – or lack of any correction – puts it at D+8 for that year) are the only way Obama can get a lead and he STILL CAN’T GET TO 50%!

        It seems to me that Romney is kicking the door down. He’s not the type that would go big without the payoff being there. Guy is actually fairly risk averse for a private equity guy and would probably be more likely to shore up any weakness before expanding the map based on what I know of him. So if he’s expanding the map that tells me that he doesn’t think he’s weak in Ohio or Colorado. Maybe Nevada, but he knows that Nevada isn’t necessary if he nabs Ohio and Colorado.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

        Ruj:
        en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator

  20. Brad
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Per NRO’s Campaign Spot…some pretty bad news. GOP insider (w/ access to RR internal polling) says that Sandy gave the President a boost, though thinks it’s just respite not lasting. i.e. that Christie really helped the President short-term that it’sn not long-term. I say: What? There’s only 5 days left. Insider says early vote trends in OH, makes hiM nervous, though reassured by Team RR that ground game is the best it has ever been. InternalS show up 1 in WI and “too close to call” in OH. Also said that MN and PA are now “lean democrat” from “solid blue.” <–meaning they're losing both states significantly and they're taking a stab at them, not tied or leading.

    Read between the lines and you realize that RR have moved into MN, PA, and WI looking for an alternate electoral path because they are worried about OH. I get the feeling, as Indies have tightend from 6-12 to 3-5 in national polling that Christi…er…Sandy killed RR's momentum and Christie really helped Obama. This is not the kind of news you want to hear going into the weekend, but the fact that RR's internal don't have him up 3 or more in OH and WI is cause for real concern given that O might have seized momentum back on account of Sand…oh, who am I kidding…Christie's unnecessary slobbering love fest with the President this week.

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not sure why the formatting in this post went heywire.

      • Sr
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

        I thought ev in oh was very encouraging to repubs. What is he nervous about?

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

        Brad = passive-aggressive dem troll.

        If Romney cannot win OH, and Romney is heading to PA because Romney is desperate, then why is Obama spending almost two full-days in Ohio!?!?! If Obama has Ohio locked-up, then Obama wouldn’t need to spend so much time in Ohio. If Ohio was out of reach for Romney, Obama would know PA is a head-fake. Obama wouldn’t visit Ohio. The fact that Obama has to spend almost two full days in Ohio proves that Ohio is very close, and Romney is expanding the map.

      • Jim S.
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        Great point Grey.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

        Concern trolls are easy to out. Just ask them to explain why they want Romney to win and 0 to lose, without any doubt as to whether they mean it (i.e., “’cause Romney will bomb the a-rabs and put the poor out into the streets!” doesn’t cut it). They can’t. Anyone in the bag for the 0 enough to be TROLLING for him in 2012 (lol) is constitutionally incapable.

        I much prefer the Dem trolls who are honest about their loyalties, obviously. They can post til their hearts are content IMO.

      • Pete
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

        Agree with greymarch.

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t see the stuff about Sandy giving the President a boost (the bad news) at Campaign Spot. Here’s the whole thing:

      “Politically, Hurricane Sandy (and Gov. Chris Christie) helped President Obama, but my sense is that it was more a respite than a boost.

      FL, VA, and CO are looking very solid for Romney. NV remains within reach for Romney, but favors Obama ever-so-slightly.

      WI, MI, IA, PA seem to be closing well for Romney. In WI, internal GOP polling shows Romney with a 1 point lead and gaining steam.

      MN and PA aren’t head fakes by Team Romney; they are legitimate opportunities to expand Mitt’s electoral map. MN has gone from “solid blue” to “lean Democrat.” Team Romney is not only buying ads in PA, but is sending Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio to campaign there today. The fact that Obama is also buying ads in PA is proof that PA is in play. Don’t be surprised if Mitt makes a stop in PA over the next few days.-

      According to the polls, OH remains too close to call. While the early voting trends make me nervous, my sources on the ground in Ohio tell me that the GOP ground game is as good as it has ever been. Romney, Ryan and their top 100 surrogates will hold a “Real Recovery Road” mega-rally in West Chester tomorrow evening, which should provide grassroots Republicans with a huge shot in the arm going into the weekend.”

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

        Let me clarify…”a respite, not a boost” to me means it stalled Romney’s momentum, but didn’t swing anything.
        I could be wrong.

      • exe
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

        West Chester Ohio, or West Chester PA?

      • Ron
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

        Sandy improved Obama’s favorables, according to Gallup. But it isn’t likely to have improved his numbers much in places like OH or PA. It’s still the economy stupid.

    • Tom
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      First of all internal polling is not instant. So therefore the entire premise of your post goes up in smoke. OH is going Romney, just look at the internals of almost every skewed public poll out there. Mitt-Mentum

    • Dave
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Oh,where are the guys on this list that said Christie was saying exactly what he should be saying and that he was showing class. What a load. Maybe they were trolls (but that was before the exposure on RCP) How ironic that a global warming event has hurt the chances of the anti-global warming party. LOL. I swear mother nature seems intent on having a say this election and she’s come down squarely in the dem camp. That’s twice repubs have been screwed over by hurricanes that couldn’t have been timed any better.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

        Mother Nature smacks the NE with a giant storm when they’re all voting for the 0, but somehow that’s bad for Republicans? Wrath of God I says. 😉

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bad news? That update is solid. Colorado, Virginia, and Florida locked down. That means Obama pretty much has to run the table over the wide territory of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Wisconsin. That puts Romney at 257 and Obama at 178 if we look at the likely without the swing. I’ve taken Oregon and NM out of Obama’s column because they are close there too and Romney’s people also have said Washington is in reach (and we’ve heard that volunteering).

      New Hampshire or Iowa plus Wisconsin or Michigan or Minnesota take Romney over the top. Ohio or PA alone do it.

      I’d rather be us than them.

  21. arizona rules
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    NO WAY ROMNEY LOSES OHIO! Look McCain who was a TERRIBLE CANDIDATE in a TERRIBLE TIME for Republicans and still got 47%. Every one of those people will vote Romney again. And you are telling me that 3% won’t now go to Romney…that is crazy. Look Ohio is a Republican state….look at state governing…look at track record. No way 3% more do not move to Romney… Ohio is over!

    • Tom
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Couldn’t agree more. Ohio R 53 O 47.

    • MikeS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed. I live in Toledo, Ohio and Ohio Republicans are very enthused about voting. Ohio has always leaned Republican and now that Obama has an actual record, we know what he is really all about. I would be absolutely shocked if Romney doesn’t win Ohio.

    • Ron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It still comes down to turnout in OH–and there’s just no indication this will be 2008 redux, despite the Dem ground game. Early voting didn’t pan out–so it all comes down to turnout.

      • NHConservative
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:16 am | Permalink

        It’s reported that early vote is down by 240,000 votes for Democrats and up 40,000 votes for Republican’s in Ohio.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree. 4-6 point win.

  22. Dogfish
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Everything is turning Romney’s way.

    We will get not only the WH, but also the Senate.

    This is gonna be a blowout.

  23. JGS
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The following article is worth a read, regarding Obama’s collapse among Independent voters, and the 10 factors underpinning that collapse.

    http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/research/10-trends-showing-barack-obamas-collapse-among-independents

  24. zang
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Of course Sandy/Christie is giving 0 a boost, evidenced by tightening of Romney’s lead with independents. Not surprising, but hopefully not long lasting.

    Unemployment numbers big wild card.

    PA makes perfect sense. No early voting. Do you you yet more trips to Ohio would help? The point of a visit is to get a huge splash of friendly coverage from the local media.

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The lack of early voting is a good point that I think many overlook. This neutralizes a supposed reason that Obama “will win” Nevada,Iowa et al.

    • NHConservative
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:20 am | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t know, if things keep getting worse, as they are appearing to right now in NYC, death counts increasing, civil unrest, no food/dumpster diving on TV, huge gas lines, no electricity for days, people not working in the largest city in the US, slow FEMA response (3-days) to Staten Island, this could make Obama look really bad. He’ll have to decide on being a “leader” or campaigner over these next couple of days. Both of these won’t help him at all.

  25. margaret
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just saw this article from Breitbart News about why the Romney campaign is feeling better about OH,PA,WI and MN.
    Obama’s Catholic support has now collapsed, especially white Catholic support. Romney leads in white Catholic support by 14 points, after being tied in September, according to Pew polling. Very interesting, and makes very good sense as well. IMHO Pew is the best pollster for religious views.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/01/Obama-Collapses-Among-Catholic-Voters

    • Ron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Many Catholics in traditionally Democratic areas–for instance, in Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties here in PA–are also resentful of Obama’s policy on health care–which they deem as an attack on religious freedom. That’s another reason why PA is now a toss-up.

  26. zang
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Very interesting article on the dueling poll numbers.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/parties-wonder-which-side-s-polls-reflect-reality-20121101

  27. arizona rules
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Simple Ohio Math: 47% (McCain 2008 Ohio) + hacked off white catholics in Ohio who will not vote for Obama this time + conservatives that sat home with McCain + stronger evangelical vote + stronger base in general > 50% Romney wins ohio….

    • margaret
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes indeed. There are a LOT of cheesed-off previous Obama voters who are going to vote Romney, including large groups of white catholics. This will be across the midwest so definitely including Ohio.

    • jeff
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There are alreadytwo separate independent and apparently reputable polls showing RR ahead in Ohio by 3%. The much reduced early vote advantage that Obama had in 2008 plus the expected enthusiasm advantage for Republicans prpbably accounts for greater confidence in Ohio.

  28. Publius
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The following is best description that I have read so far of the problem with party ID’s and polls. All the more credible because it comes from a 538 fan. It also debunks the idea (proposed by some liberals)that party ID shifts explain the Party ID skew of the polls. (And all this without even considering the evidence of early voting, showing a substantial decrease of democratic advantage, suggesting a vote swing away from 2008 high)
    http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2012/10/27/the-great-democratic-turnout-miracle/

  29. Pa John
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any new PA polls due out soon that we could dissect?

    • JGS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Susquehanna is teasing that they’re about to release a new statewide poll on behalf of a media client. But that tease has been up all day on their website, so it’s not clear exactly when it is going to be released. PPP will probably come out with a poll tomorrow showing Obama +35 in PA.

      http://www.susquehannapolling.com/

      • Pa John
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

        @JGS..looking for Mitt over 38 in Philly and 4 counties. 40 is a definite win. F&M poll would put Mitt right around 38 which is a statewide tie.

      • Keith W.
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

        That poll will be out on Sunday.

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In all seriousness, anything under Obama +5 would lead me to believe PA is truly in play. their last poll showed 51-44

      • JGS
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

        No, Susquehanna’s last poll had Romney +4 (from 10/18). Notably, for reasons that I cannot begin to fathom, it is nowhere to be found on RealClearPolitics. They had it up for about 10 minutes, and then mysteriously took it down, as if it did not exist.

        http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-shows-romney-leading-in-blue-pennsylvania/article/2511153

      • Ron
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

        Smith is hammering away at Casey who’s in the mid forties and ripe for a loss. So there’s a lot of disaffection among Democrats in this state. Health care is a huge issue–and so is the huge 716 billion Medicare cut. Coal and fracking is another huge issue. PA is winnable. Jim Lee of Susquehanna polling wouldn’t go so far as to say Romney would win, but he said it’s a genuine toss-up. There’s too much hostility towards Democratic policies under Obama for us not to go in big, even in a state with so many registered Democrats.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

        And Dick Morris’ polling with the respectable McLaughlin has Romney up 3 in PA.

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sorry, should have said that I meant PPP….which I’m sure will be blasted everywhere in the MSM

  30. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Remember…PA has a Republican meeting and Republican legislature, not crazy to think Romney can win!

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