Democrats have long been expected to win Clark County early voting by large margins. The story of early voting thus far has been unexpected reduced enthusiasm among Democrats, Republicans resurgence off low 2008 totals and the rise of Indepedent/Other party support. The Wednesday early vote appeared to be Democrats last chance to bury the GOP in all-important Clark County and that didn’t happen.
Ahead of the vote, one hell of a source whispered in my ear: The locations Wednesday rotate into some bad areas for Republicans but some decent ones back on Thurs and Friday. If the GOP can hold the Obama campaign to a spread of between 5000-6000 tomorrow the GOP should look pretty good going into the final early voting days.
Well, yesterday’s margin was 4159, well below the expected blood-bath and below the “good” level locals were hoping for. So great job to Team Nevada and now get after it these last two days. Overall Democrats cast 13083 ballots only 88% the 2012 weekday average. Republicans cast 8924 ballots, 90% of the 2012 weekday average. And Independents/Other cast 6017 ballots, 105% of the 2012 weekday average. Thursday and Friday are expected to be the big turnout days in early voting although there may have been some early pull-forward of ballots this cycle.
|2012 thru Day 12||2008 Through Day 12|
|Dem – 171368 (48.16%)||Dem – 163777 (52.98%)|
|GOP -116991 (32.88%)||GOP – 93014 (30.09%)|
|NP – 67487 (18.97%)||NP – 52341 (16.93%)|
We see the election over election change in Democrat turnout is barely above the 2008 turnout +7591 and dropping daily. The change in GOP turnout is UP +23,988, a net 16,386 gain for the GOP versus 2008.