Clark County Wednesday Early Vote — Last Gasp for Democrats?

Democrats have long been expected to win Clark County early voting by large margins.  The story of early voting thus far has been unexpected reduced enthusiasm among Democrats, Republicans resurgence off low 2008 totals and the rise of Indepedent/Other party support.  The Wednesday early vote appeared to be Democrats last chance to bury the GOP in all-important Clark County and that didn’t happen.

Ahead of the vote, one hell of a source whispered in my ear: The locations Wednesday rotate into some bad areas for Republicans but some decent ones back on Thurs and Friday.  If the GOP can hold the Obama campaign to a spread of between 5000-6000 tomorrow the GOP should look pretty good going into the final early voting days.

Well, yesterday’s margin was 4159, well below the expected blood-bath and below the “good” level locals were hoping for.  So great job to Team Nevada and now get after it these last two days.  Overall Democrats cast 13083 ballots only 88% the 2012 weekday average.  Republicans cast 8924 ballots, 90% of the 2012 weekday average.  And Independents/Other cast 6017 ballots, 105% of the 2012 weekday average.  Thursday and Friday are expected to be the big turnout days in early voting although there may have been some early pull-forward of ballots this cycle.

2012 thru Day 12 2008 Through Day 12
Dem – 171368 (48.16%) Dem – 163777 (52.98%)
GOP -116991 (32.88%) GOP – 93014 (30.09%)
NP – 67487 (18.97%) NP – 52341 (16.93%)

We see the election over election change in Democrat turnout is barely above the 2008 turnout +7591 and dropping daily. The change in GOP turnout is UP +23,988, a net 16,386 gain for the GOP versus 2008.

156 Comments

  1. kyle
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Whats the spread number that gives us a chance for Clark county??? 35k Dems???

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In a post near the start of EV Keith said he’d be feeling comfortable at 40k Dem EV advantage.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not sure if that post was clear; Keith’s earlier post said he would like REPs chances to win the state if the final CC early vote was a Dem advantage of 40k or less.

      • KN
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

        That’s awful! Based on these numbers, looks like Dems are already above 60K. Alright, Ohio, Nevada has failed us twice (they re-elected Harry Reid in 2010 and are on track to giving their EVs to Obama). It’s all up to the Buckeye state now…

  2. Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama is going to NV later this week. Will early voting still be taking place in NV when Obama is there? One would assume so…makes more sense for Obama to visit when early voting is still happening. Will be very interesting to see if Obama’s’ visit spikes Dem early voting in NV. If Obama’s visit doesn’t have a profound effect on early voting the day after Obama visits, that’s a great sign for Romney.

    • LausDeo
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      EV inNV ends tomorrow. And while the numbers from Clark County look daunting, since the wave election of 08, there has been an increase in the number of Ind/Oth voters by 18%. Dems EV turnout is down/flat overall, R and Ind EV is increased from 08. Culinary/SEIU turnout efforts in LV are nothing like 08 (no buses taking casino employees to vote this time). If the election is close, I have no doubt they will “find” the votes they need- this is the home of Harry Reid. But we will still carry the NvSen, and at least two of four congressional districts (and possibly a third). That wouldn’t be bad for a state that shows a registration advantage of 130,500 for the Dems.

  3. Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I hate to say this, I don’t see Romney winning Nevada with these numbers.

    • damien
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      if one gets away i think it would be nevada then iowa then new hampshire…in that order..

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The Colorado study that predicted a Romney landslide interestingly had Nevada as one state he wouldn’t win.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

        Wow! It’s now beginning to make sense now. Kudos to Keith for all the analysis on these 2 counties.

  4. Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In regards to an earlier poster saying that ballot returns are tied between the parties. That is not the case. 40.1% of Dems have returned ballots and 40.8% of Republicans have returned ballots. However, there are 176K more registered Dems in Oregon than Republicans. Currently 60K more Dem ballots have been returned, but that is down 4K from yesterday. Interestingly ballot returns have been very high in heavily Republican, but sparsely populated Eastern Oregon. Heavily Democrat Multnomah and Lane counties have the 2nd and 3rd lowest return rates so far.

  5. Tom
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Totals in Clark County as of 09:15 am today show dems with a +55k advantage. Totals for the entire state of NV as of 09:15 am today shows dems with only a total +37k advantage. This is huge and bodes very well for the GOP on election day.

    • John Fisher
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      A key will be how the Indy vote goes for Romney. A recent Gravis poll had Romney at about 65-30 among Indy’s. If that is a real number after the ballots have been counted NV may just go to Romney.

  6. margaret
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Good article here for you Nevada number crunchers:

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/11/crunching-the-numbers-in-nevada.php

    • Tom
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Excellent link. Mitt-Mentum

    • Haus
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have crunched the numbers in Nevada also…Here is the situation (cant past a spreadsheet here so I will try to make it clear):

      Obama has a Clark county lead of 55443 (based on registrations) and a state lead of 37279. Allocating Indy votes based on the most recent polls closes this gap. All the recent polls give Romney the edge with independents.Estimated DEM Lead in Nevada is ~30,000 right now, could be less if Gravis is correct or If crossover vote also favors Romney.

      NEVADA
      Polls: Indy’s DEM REP Oth Tot Indy’s DEM REP Delta (D-R) EstimatedDEM Lead (37279-Indy Allocation)
      LRJ (Oct30) 42% 49% 9% 105,865 44,463 51,874 -7,411 29,868
      Gravis (Oct25) 32% 68% 0% 105,865 33,877 71,988 -38,111 -832
      PPP (Oct25) 44% 53% 3% 105,865 46,581 56,108 -9,528 27,751
      LRJ (Oct15) 34% 52% 14% 105,865 35,994 55,050 -19,056 18,223
      Allocated

  7. JGS
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Off-topic, but critical — latest Wenzel Strategies (R) poll conducted 10/30-10/31 shows Romney +3 in OHIO. This is now being reported by The Hill.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/265355-gop-pollster-romney-up-in-ohio-closing-in-wisconsin

    • JGS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And Josh Mandel +5 over Sherrod Brown in the Senate race (first time I’ve seen Mandel up at all in that race, let alone by 5) and Tommy Thompson +2 on Baldwin in the Senate race in Wisconsin. Also shows Romney closing but still down 2 in Wisconsin.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Would like to see internals. Last Wenzel poll on the 8th of October had DRI of 38D/37R/25I. If the internals are the same, it would be in the ball park of what the Ras poll showing Romney +2 there had.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wenzel Strategies is a GOP polling firm and they did the poll for Citizen’s United, which is the biggest GOP super-PAC. Gotta take this poll with a huge grain of salt, but you also need to take other university/media OH polls with a huge grain of salt. My feeling is that Romney is down 1-2 points in Ohio, but if Romney voters really are more enthusiastic than Obama voters, and the few undecideds left split more for Romney than Obama, then Romney probably wins Ohio.

      • M. White
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

        http://www.wenzelstrategies.com/blog/polls/newest-wenzel-strategiescitizens-united-poll-ohio-romney-49-obama-46/
        Here is the link for the internal numbers…this is D+5 poll, so it is very creditable!

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

        As indicated below, D+5. I think D+2 or less is most likely. I think Romney wins Ohio by 5.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

        DRI is 37D/32R/30I. D+5 was the turnout of the electorate in 2008. Wow.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

        Yeah. Take this with a grain of salt. Kind of like PPP, perhaps? Marist, perhaps?

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

        D+5 in this Ohio poll makes it kind of hard to take this poll that comes from an R pollster with a grain of salt. If the poll had an even party ID, Romney would be up 5-6

      • Jim S.
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

        DRI is fair, doesn’t seem to ask “Pushy” questions. Probably just using a tighter LV screen then others, IE the D+8 or 9 stuff. Also uses a nice large sample for a state poll.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

        The key is 2008 vote numbers. Obama 49.9 vs. McCain 45.0. The actual vote in 2008 in Ohio was Obama 51.5 vs. McCain 46.9. So 2008 Obama +4.9 sample vs. Obama +4.6 actual vote. If there’s nothing wrong with the demographic tags, and there might be, (or maybe as per Axelrod, the likely voter screen might be too tight), then this poll is HUGH for Romney.

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      All JGS posts are “on topic” in my book. Nicely done.

  8. Pete
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Trolls can’t deny EV #s and O’s need to shore up seemingly safe states this late belie their echo chamber narrative. Facts are stubborn things.

  9. rcl_in_va
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Going into Monday the CC early vote was really looking good; but then came Tue & Wed (as easily seen in your chart Keith). I’ve done some work on what to expect today and tomorrow. The last 2 days in ’04 were 23% of the EV total; in ’08 was 21%. Assume 22% this year so about 100k ballots will be cast these last 2 days and the final ballot count will be around 456k. The EV ballots thru yesterday were 48.2% D, 32.9% R and 19.0% other. In both ’04 and ’08 the ballot count went up dramatically on the final two days, but the %D %R %Other remained remarkably constant with the EV ballot percentages up to that point. If that remains the case the next two days the final EV tally will be D 219k, R 150k and 87k Other (a 69k ballot advantage for the DEMs). The Reps best day was Monday 10/29 with 42.8% D, 37.7% R and 19.3% Other. If the final two days are the same as the best two REP days then the final EV tally will be D 214k, R 155k, Other 87k (a 59k ballot advantage for the DEMs). To maintain the current D advantage (50k) the REPs would have to do 2.6% better than their best day so far (both D & R at 40.5%). In ’04 the EV was 50% of the final ballot count and in ’08 it was 60%. Are we (REPs) really still in this thing in NV? Since Obama is visiting I’d guess the DEMs think so, but the probable 69k EV final advantage is scary.

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for looking this up. I was curious as well.

      I’m wondering the same thing. I guess it comes down to whether we cannibalized for early votes and enthusiasm on Tuesday.

    • GLENN
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I would love some insight from Keith or anyone else on this site as to why there aren’t as many R-leaning polls out there to offset all these damn D-leaning polls??? This happens every election!! I think that Keith should start his own polling firm. I would be willing to make a financial contribution to help him set up such an operation. Who’s with me?????

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink

        This has been answered many times over the last two weeks, which is why no one is repeating the explanation. Nutshell: Dems have advantage with low-propensity voters, who tend to fail to vote more than Republicans do. Makes sense that the medi- er, Dems would have the couch potato vote locked up.

        Trouble for Dems is, it’s much easier to ask some idiot who he wants to win than it is to get the same idiot to actually vote. Turnout is usually around 65 to 70%, or so I hear. If it was 100%, these polls would be far more accurate. But it isn’t.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      MADE HUGE MISTAKE!! Re-post from 1:49pm. Going into Monday the CC early vote was really looking good; but then came Tue & Wed (as easily seen in your chart Keith). I’ve done some work on what to expect today and tomorrow. The last 2 days in ’04 and in ’08 was about 11% (error in prior post was 21%). So about 44k ballots will be cast these last 2 days and the final ballot count will be around 400k. The EV ballots thru yesterday were 48.2% D, 32.9% R and 19.0% other. In both ’04 and ’08 the ballot count went up dramatically on the final two days, but the %D %R %Other remained remarkably constant with the EV ballot percentages up to that point. If that remains the case the next two days the final EV tally will be D 192k, R 145k and 76k Other (a 61k ballot advantage for the DEMs). The Reps best day was Monday 10/29 with 42.8% D, 37.9% R and 19.3% Other. If the final two days are the same as the best two REP days then the final EV tally will be D 190k, R 134k, Other 76k (a 57k ballot advantage for the DEMs). To maintain the current D advantage (50k) the REPs would have to do 2.6% better than their best day so far (both D & R at 40.5%). In ’04 the EV was 50% of the final ballot count and in ’08 it was 60%. Are we (REPs) really still in this thing in NV? Since Obama is visiting I’d guess the DEMs think so, but the probable 61k EV final advantage is scary. Spreadsheets are scary too if you mess them up like I did (est 8k too many DEM EV’s)! Sorry 😦

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      After losing all credibility, disregard the HUGE MISTAKE post (3:35pm). Unfortunately the orignal 1:49 post was correct. The old joke I thought I made a mistake once, but was wrong. Expect to see total ballot count today (Thu) 41k and tomorrow 59k if the 22% assumption proves correct. Most probable final EV result is DEM +69k. Very much hope to see mobile voting move improve this prospect.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      FWIW, both the DEMs and REPs have been seeing a falloff in ballots cast compared with ’08 (D since Sat and R since Mon). If that trend persists we will only see 16% of the Clark early vote in the final two days, not 22%. We would see 33k ballots today (Thu 11/1) and 37k ballots tomorrow. Final EV would be 426k total, 205k DEM, 140k REP, 81k Other, leaving a DEM to REP advantage of +65k. From what we’ve seen so far this may be a bit closer. Time will tell.

  10. Tom
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The fact that osama is on defense and Romney is on offense in this end game speaks volumes. Mitt-Mentum

    • Aaron
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “osama”?

      Get the hell out of here with that BS man. When you talk like that you’re no better than the buffoons on the left.

      • Dan
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

        Easy Aaron, likely an honest mistake. Bob Schrieffer called him “osama” on accident as a debate monitor. I am sure I have 3 typos in this post alone.

      • Aaron
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

        The “s” and the “b” aren’t anywhere near each other on the keyboard.

        I just can’t stand stuff like that; Obama is enough of a disaster on his own without us needing to resort to his level (“Romnesia”). The level of discourse on this blog is very high and it would be great for it to stay that way. Tom’s “typo” has no place here.

      • Tom
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

        Dan, thanks for defending me for my obvious typo. It’s nice to see some people still have common sense.

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agree with Aaron here. Let’s keep the discussion above board…though even liberal journalists like Schaeffer has trouble remembering Obama not Osama.

    • Tom
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Aarun and Brad, you guys need to calm down. It was obviously a typo. I’m sure you’ve never had your mind on one thing while doing another, however that sometimes happens to me. I didn’t intentionally misspell obama. However I would argue that obama is a much larger threat to America than osama ever was. Now if you want to be the typo police, feel free, however I won’t apologize for a typo. Use your energy to defeat obama, and not pick apart one of my many typos.

  11. Neil in NC
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I was thinking the same thing Kyle. PBO won State in 08′ by ~120k votes. Seems like the Dems had an ~86k Clark County early voting advantage in 08′. Looks like GOP is up ~16k in Clark County early voting as of yesterday. That puts us Dems at +~70k as of this morning in early voting. Hopefully the next two days trend our way.

    Washoe County early voting advantage in 08′ was ~12k votes.

    Is that enough of a spread?

    Is this where the GOP wanted to be in this race as it relates to early voting? Are we ahead or behind where we wanted to be?

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Probably not, but it’s not horrible. I think they’d be far happier with Clark coming in at sub 50k.

  12. Chris
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    How is the independent vote looking in Nevada?

  13. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    WI poll for Newest Wenzel Strategies/Citizens United Poll: D+4

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      D+6 in 2008, R+2 in 2004.

      I’ll guess is D+4 is conservative from a Rep point of view, I’d guess it would be closer to even.

  14. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I read a guy named Ralston yesterday said it’s going to break about even as Nevada independent’s are now less conservative.

    • bsmith
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ralston = David Alexrod

      Even the biased polls don’t try to claim it is break even.

  15. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/01/Eight-reasons-Pro-Obama-Polls-Are-Wrong
    Please read this!

  16. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Liberal Washington Post (The Fix) goes this far today…Ohio moves back into the ‘tossup’ category on Fix electoral map!

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow. Surprised the liberal Washington Post would do that. I wonder if they know something we dont. Last thing the WashPost wants to do is give the impression that Ohio is tied right now.

  17. Yong
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, your math is off in that chart. 2008 number is bigger than 2012. 70k vs 54k.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think Keith was referring to D ballots cast (turnout), not the D advantage over R at this point. In ’08 there were 163,137 D ballots cast through Wednesday early voting and this year it’s 171,367 (8,230 ballots difference by my count). Keith said 7,591 but I think we have some minor differences in our data. Close enough.

  18. zang
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I have generally been positive on Romney’s prospects, but I just don’t see Romney pulling it off in Nevada based on these numbers. Doing better than ’08 isn’t going to cut it when 0bama won here in double digits.

    These numbers do bode very well for Dean Heller, however.

  19. zang
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It is worth noting that Jon Ralston believes that Romney still has a chance to pull this off. He was pretty emphatic (smugly and arrogantly so) that Reid was going to win easily back in 2010.

  20. zang
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New WI poll from “St Noerbet’s College” has Romney trailing by 11 points, Tommy Thompson up by 6. 400 respondents for a poll taken over two weeks time. My dear god. Is RCP going to include this swill?

  21. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I would be surprised that Thompson coule be up 6.4 points in WI but Romney down 11 pts. I think this is a terrible poll. What are the internals? Never mind…found them…this is a D+10 polls, way off the map!
    Here is the link:
    http://www.snc.edu/sri/docs/2012/2012wisconsinsurvey.pdf

    • M. White
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I hope Keith looks at the internals, I just went straight to the page to find out how many Dems, Reps, and Indy’s

      • zang
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

        And a poll of “adults”.

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Adults? Yeah, not even going to click the link for that….

    • Pa John
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They may have stood in front of the local Piggly Wiggly during the day when 47%ers lurk and interviewed the 1st 400 people.

  22. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Look at this poll: http://www.lvrj.com/news/obama-widens-lead-in-nevada-176737281.html
    Wow! Comment at the bottom of the article (not my comments) “Democrats accounted for 43 percent of those surveyed, Republicans 33 percent and independents 23 percent. That roughly matches the party breakdown in Nevada, although there are more Republicans and fewer nonpartisans.”

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I like their definition of “roughly”. Democrats out registered republicans by around 7%. So polling an increase in democratic advantage by 40% is “roughly” the same.

      This kind of stuff is getting comical.

    • housebroken dad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yup, pretty much a joke. D +2 was 2010 turnout and both sides had reason and incentive to vote (Reid vs Angle). I just don’t see the electorate this year being much different from that. Perhaps a point either way. So a D+10 which is more Democratic than even ’08 is absurd. But that’s commonplace this election season. I feel like we are beating our heads against a wall. Can’t wait until next week.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

        Not sure about this. Dem registration up 60k in Nevada this year. Doesn’t sound like much, but it’s about 6% of the electorate.

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      D+10 and O’s only up 4. Maybe this is doable.

  23. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I mean this poll is D+10, what the hell are these people thinking???

  24. John
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’ll be conducting a poll out of my basement tonight for submission to RCP in the morning (they accept ALL submissions right?). If any BW regulars want to be included just send your phone number. I will include Peter Palco in an effor to keep the poll unbiased.

  25. stephanie
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Off topic- heard rumor that Obama has been running ads in CA, can anybody confirm this?

    • JGS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am in CA and it seems that we only get ads on “national” shows (i.e., sporting events where many of the commercial spots are for national commercials rather than for the local cable company to run). But I could be wrong about that.

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Where? Could be for W. Nevada or Las Vegas.

      • stephanie
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

        Couple weeks ago somebody mentioned they saw 4 obama ads during sunday football game, the ads wewe runnig in San Francisco, which is shocking to me, cant imagine obama even bother to spend money there, CA is safe for him..just makes me wonder, though.

  26. margaret
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A poster on Ace of Spades had a good point. If the turnout was like 2008, Republicans would be in big danger of losing the House, which they aren’t. No Dem outfit is saying the House is in danger, so it’s not a D+8 turnout. However what turnout it will be, apparently shaky Democrats in House races ARE in danger. The poster writes:

    34 I mentioned the other day that our firm had started polling in California. What our client was specifically looking for, other than top-line “Obama/Romney?”, was how bad Obama is hurting down-ballot Dem House members in CA. Some of whom have been in office for a while.

    Feinstein is going to win her Senate race. Everybody knows that. Obama will win CA. Everybody knows that, too.

    The concern is that Barry is so toxic and depressive of the Dem vote that he will drag down borderline Dem House seats.

    Be not afraid.

    Posted by: trumpetdaddy at November 01, 2012 02:45 PM (dcoFe)

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey! Someone here has been making this point too…and well before Ace. 🙂

      • margaret
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

        Easy to miss new comments here but this is a great site. I’m glad I found it about a month ago. 🙂

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Be Not Afraid! First words from JPII! Thanks Margaret – that made my day!

  27. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen shows Mitt ahead 50-47 in CO today.

  28. JGS
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    According to this, we may all get to drink for 10 days before we know who wins Ohio. (And that’s not including any litigation challenges, that’s just based upon the casting of provision ballots on election day, a quirk of Ohio’s new law under which absentee ballots were sent to all registered voters.)

    http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ohio-provisional-ballots-delay/2012/11/01/id/462413

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In 2004, switch 55k votes in Ohio (out of 5 million cast) and Kerry would have won Ohio. Kerry could have asked for a recount, but his election experts looked into it, and decided they couldnt flip 55k votes. You know damn well if Obama loses any state, and is within the recount margin for that state, he is going to call for recounts, and do everything he can to win those recounts.

      • novahockey
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

        Take PA and WI and tell OH to cram it.

      • John
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

        of the 11 states considered Battleground 8 of them (Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada) have Republican governors/administrations in place which should help twart any recount shenanigans. If there are recounts in Florida and Virgina though Romney has probably already lost.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

        Yes, but part of the 2004 story was that Kerry knew that if he contested OH, Bush would have contested WI, where the margin was much, much closer than OH – only 5K votes. One major reason why they didn’t bother (aside from the margin being too big).

    • MichaelG
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is why Romney need to also win Wisconsin, Iowa, and NH in addition to Ohio.

  29. novahockey
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    From the post below: “blogging may be light this afternoon due to some issues away from the blog. I’m still apparently 2-3 days away from getting electricity and heading home so adjustments will crimp into blogging”

    I doff my top hat to you, sir. Above and beyond.

  30. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    BREAKING NEWS! (Kidding) NYC Mayor Bloomberg just endorsed Obama for re-election, no surprise there, a left-leaning liberal lefist pretending to be independant, against all guns, drinking too much soda, don’t smoke anywhere, that’s not independant, that’s a government minded liberal. He states climate change for his endorsement…really??? He is spending $1.5 million on a democrat congressional candidate in FL because the democrat is anti-gun. Just waiting for the so-called Republican Gov. Christie to endorse Obama! (Kidding…doubt he’ll go that far but still wouldn’t be surprised looking at his tweets, he’s firing mad at Republicans going after him on his romance with the President…he is not reliable, gets angered easily so he may be on the borderline of doing something completely damning to himself politically. I hate to keep bashing Christie, I know his state is in real trouble but that does not require him to turn his back on his party! Republicans didn’t cause the hurricane and devastation, nature did that. And no matter who is president, they would be supporting him and NJ in the recovery!

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Christie has destroyed his future with the Republican party.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

        Agreed.
        ~ Brittany

      • Tony
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

        Yep. Hope he loses to Booker by 20 next year.

      • M.White
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

        Reminds me of Colin Powell!

      • stephanie
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

        People wont forget what he did and has been doing for selfish reasons, if he is in anyway thinking about running for the president, he will not get my vote!

    • Svigor
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Awesome. Even the guy who endorsed 0bama wasn’t interested in giving him free press.

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bloomberg is looking for the Feds to pick up the entire tab of cleanup (50b).

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

        NYC is in its own special universe of scummy.

  31. indie
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What do you make of http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/can_romney_win_indies_lose.php ?

    Any thoughts on the argument that Republicans merely shifted to the independent column and were always voting Romney anyway, so the great indie lead isn’t all that?

    • Keith W
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If that was the case then explain how the 2010 mid terms ended with a split party id? That was the Tea Party election and the proponents of what you say above call this the “Tea Party Effect”. It didn’t happen then, so I don’t know why it would happen now when the Tea Party is much quieter…and some say, a non-factor.

  32. Matt
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney’s Harrisburg PA visit – is this confirmed? I have not heard this reported anywhere else but here.

  33. mchlgregg
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Alright, another wacky poll showing Obama ahead in CO!

    New CNN-ORC Colorado poll: Obama 50%, Romney 48% +/- 3.5%. Party ID: D-33%, R-31%, I-35%

    I know devil is in the details but I’m not sure what those details are. Thoughts?

    • JGS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Where is link to actual poll showing voter ID? I could not find. In any event, if this poll is D+2, it’s skewed badly. This compares to 2008 of R +1 (Dem 30, Rep 31, Ind 39) and 2004 R +9 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33). So we’re supposed to believe that Ds are +3 vs. 2008 while Rs have held steady?

      • mchlgregg
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

        no link provided because I got this off of twitter from a John King

  34. JGS
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New CNN poll shows Obama +2 (+1 if you include third-party candidates) in CO. Poll shows Obama +2 with independents. Voter ID and other internals not available (no link to actual poll provided). If Obama gets a majority of independent voters in CO, I’ll be absolutely stunned.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/01/cnn-poll-tight-race-in-rocky-mountain-battleground-2/?hpt=hp_t2

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The enthusiasm for Romney here is HUGE. Rasmussen has had Romney up in CO for quite a while by 3-4 points (yet he won’t take us out the “toss up” category, it’s maddening). There is no way CO is not going to Romney.
      ~ Brittany

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

        Colorado is a toss-up that favors Obama. Rasmussen is just one polling company.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

        I live here, so what do I know right? 😉
        ~ Brittany

    • Tony
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama is making another trip to Wisconsin on Monday. Wow.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

        You are not suggesting he should stop campaigning just because he is ahead, are you?

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

        Live free’s days r numbered…we only have one token troll and that is Peter….

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

        Medicine Man, are you intimidated by opposing views? I am not. Now, if I were here making outlandish comments, insulting people, I’d say that is trolling. Simply making a reasonable counter point is not. If you can’t handle it, you’ve already lost.

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Early voting is R+2 too.

  35. mchlgregg
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Now Rasmussen comes out with a Colorado poll showing Romney 50%, Obama 47%. How can CNN have a 2pt lead for Obama and then Rasmussen have a 3pt lead for Romney? This stuff is so freakin’ confusing.

    • live_free290248
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You have to look at all (I mean all) the polls, “good ones” and “bad ones,” and not just Rasmussen and CNN.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

        Right. What would we do without garbage in our diet. An average of garbage = gold!

      • Neil in NC
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

        Not really live_free. Not all polls are created equal.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      State polls are often more volatile than the national ones, partly because they tend to have smaller sample sizes and partly because pollsters have a lot more practice getting a representative national sample than they do getting ones for individual states. In this case, though, the differences may also be due to different likely voter screens and different weighting of the samples. If the CNN poll has a looser voter screen, for example, that would probably lead to a better result for Obama, since Republican voters do seem to be more enthusiastic.

    • bks
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The obvious answer is that Rasmussen is R+2 (plus margin of error). The last ten polls in CO, ignoring new Ras and new CNN, are Romney +1, Obama +3, Obama +3, Romney +1, Obama +4, Obama +1, Obama +3, Obama +3, Tie, Romney +4. That last entry is an old Rasmussen.

      –bks

    • Brad
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Polls are just snapshots and not an exact science, there is a reason they operate under a MoE.

  36. live_free290248
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama +9 in WI http://www.snc.edu/sri/docs/2012/2012wisconsinsurvey.pdf

    • Tony
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      +10 D sample, and Thompson is beating Baldwin….with only 402 respondents. Garbage poll.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

        Out of the last 53 polls for WI, Romney is ahead 3 times and none since mid August. The mathematician in me says the odds are not in his favor. Think about it.

    • Haus
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This poll is D+10. Absolutely pathetic. Why do people do this garbage? If a poll comes out at D+ whatever, they should explain why they think that is realistic.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      live_free is obviously a lib troll. Yawn…
      ~ Brittany

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

        When the cats away, the mice will play….I’m waiting for a Nate Silver quote….

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

        LOL that will be next. At least it’s funny at this point! 🙂
        ~ Brittany

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

        So, anyone who disagrees with your view is a troll? Exactly what have I said that is not based on reason. Stop the name calling please. I see many different opinions being expressed here, so mine should just be fine. I have insulted no one.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

        Posting polls that are +10 D are an insult to everyone’s intelligence on here. Your agenda is obvious.
        ~ Brittany

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

        You should tell that to real clear politics who published the poll. they are a conservative website.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It is about the movement, not about the first 10 polls in September.

      We are about thoughtful dialogue..not ” He is going to Wisconsin because he is winning”…

      Now your last comment is a little more meat to it, but people on this site may have a differing view when an incumbent that won a state the last time by 14 points has to make a stop this time the day before the election…..(I know, I know, but Nate Silver says….)

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

        Shoring up your votes is not a sign of weakness, but a good strategy of leaving no stone unturned. You are playing to win. Now, as far as movement, Romney got a little bump after Oct. 3rd, but since then WI has moved back slowly into Obama’s column.

    • Haus
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The whole point of this blog is to look at the data. Headlines of polls are garbage, especially this one. If your comments focused on the data then we could have meaningful discussions and all get along. Allthingsgeography (sp?) is a classy example. Look at some of his posts.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

        Yes, I have read many of his comment which in most cases he ends up agreeing with you, and because of that he is loved. If you want someone who will agree with you all the time, then I don’t know what to say.

        Data analysis, that’s why we are here 🙂 I am very comfortable with numbers.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

        So discuss some numbers. Want to talk about Ewbama’s job approval, or how far behind he is with dependents? Or maybe you can explain how he’s going to exceed his 2008 turnout, after 4 years of poor performance? Or maybe you can tell us how Romney’s not going to exceed McCain’s turnout?

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

        Er, independents. He’s obviously got the dependent vote sewn up.

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t see any ratings for SRI. I wouldn’t put too much stock in this poll.

  37. Matt
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    And boom goes the dynamite

    http://www.thedaily.com/article/2012/11/01/110112-news-campaign-penn/

    • JGS
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interesting that, according to this article, is it the southeastern part of the state (presumably Philly suburbs) and not the southwestern part of the state he will be visiting. A pure PA play, not a hybrid western PA/eastern OH play.

    • Tony
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ok, so that’s why Sunday was left blank. No early voting in PA, so it makes sense.

  38. margaret
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Good updated article and analysis from today. Someone looking at early voting patterns in Ohio.

    http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/11/romney-could-sweep-ohio/

  39. Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ABC/WA Post tracking poll now has Obama +1.

  40. C-Bus GOP
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AA6qqNat8e0

  41. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN/NYTimes Poll Data:

    Likely Voters D+5

  42. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ABC/WaPO link:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121031.html

  43. Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    My take:

    After the 12th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 40K raw voter numbers over Republicans; this shrinks to less than 37K when absentees that have been turned-in already are included.

    After ten day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 70K in Clark County. The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 77% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 15%, relative to four years ago. This results in a 67% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting. Absentees are coming in at about 15% of the early votes. At this 67% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 13.6%, or about 62K in Clark County. Assuming that early votes are about 70% of the total vote, and with an 80% turnout, this would give a lead for the Democrats in Clark County at about 75K

    Washoe county continues to trend towards being an overall wash (pun intended) with a less than 1000 vote difference between Republicans and Democrats. The strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties id the only thing that is blunting the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 54K. With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 50K. With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 5%. This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

    All of the above assumes that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 67%, and 115% of the early voters). If the last two days for early voting are decent for the Republicans, the projected raw vote lead of 50K could shrink. This also does not take into account a potential increase in absentee ballots, which don’t have to be in until election day, and would almost certainly benefit the Republicans, which have an edge in absentee ballots in and reported of over 3000 votes. An improvement in the ground game on election day would further narrow the Democrats raw voter lead. At that point, who get what percent of each parties or independents vote starts to really matter.

    More: http://politicalhat.com/?p=423

  44. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Largest newspaper in Nevada endorses Romney today, but that may not be as surprising as to why!
    http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/benghazi-blunder-obama-unworthy-commander-in-chief-176736441.html
    Calling Obama an Unworthy Commander In Chief
    PLEASE READ!
    Also, here is some other good news from this newspaper…
    http://www.lvrj.com/news/gop-shortens-gap-in-early-voting-in-nevada-176871521.html

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      WOW! That’s pretty blunt.

      • M. White
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

        Hey, Neil in NC. I live in NC, too. I live in western NC, where are you?

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