Breaking Down the Campaign Travel Math

Jame Dupree of the Atlanta Journal Constitution breaks down the final campaign stops for both candidates and looks for insights based on where they are going and maybe more importantly where they are not. This is a time to sure up your base support to make sure the people you need to show up remain engaged.  At the same time you will push the envelope only within the context of 270 electoral votes not 300 so the fringe Battlegrounds absence is less surprising:

The President’s schedule over the next four days will take him to Ohio on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, twice to Wisconsin and Colorado and once to Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida. Meanwhile, Romney’s schedule has him making stops in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and twice in New Hampshire; both men still have a few holes left to fill in their schedule before Election Day.

The first thing that jumped out at me was the President is spread fairly thinly across 8 states while Romney is comparatively focused on 6 states. Does that mean the President is vulnerable in more areas so he has to play defense across the country?  Or does that mean Romney has fewer paths to victory?  We’ll see.  Here’s Dupree:

Ohio is getting the most attention by far of any state, as the President will be there Friday, Saturday and Sunday; Romney will be there at least on Friday. Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin will also get visits from each candidate. Romney will stop Saturday in New Hampshire and is scheduled to hold a final rally the night before the elections in Manchester next Monday, as the four Electoral Votes in the Granite State are getting a lot of attention from both sides.

No surprise Ohio has both campaign’s full attention. The incredible investment by Obama in Ohio shows they know they lose without the state and the internals don’t match the farcical public polls. To be honest that level of investment seems to indicate they may actually be losing the state at this juncture. New Hampshire getting two visits from Romney in interesting.  Romney must see some favorable movement in those four electoral votes to give him reason to double down in these final days.

Maybe more telling the Battlegrounds where they are not going:

As of now, Romney may not be going back to Florida, the largest swing state prize – the President is slated to make only one stop in the Sunshine State, Fort Lauderdale on Sunday; South Florida was where Mr. Obama ran up big margins in 2008 against John McCain.

Clearly Romney is comfortable in Florida to leave it off the schedule. This is a big deal. His campaign did some chest thumping about a double-digit win and while that seemed a bit high to be I’d expect a solid win in the state for Romney.

Also, Romney at this point is not going to Nevada, a state that seems to be leaning towards the Democrats again this year, despite its swing state status.

This one is interesting.  Romney doesn’t need the state but he certainly invested in the state.  Obama is playing defense there which is smart.  Early voting is not nearly as strong for Obama a they had hoped but he still seems to have the edge overall in the state. Senator Dean Heller is running a great campaign for re-election there against a deeply unethical opponent  and his margin of victory may help drag Romney across the finish line in the Silver State.

Not on the travel log for either Romney or Obama right now are states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and/or Minnesota – all of which have been mentioned a lot in recent days as possible pickups for Republicans.

For any student of campaigns, these should come as no surprise.  Neither campaign needs them to get to 270 so while they may fall to either campaign in a late breaking wave, campaign resources are focused at this juncture on 270 and 270 only.  No matter whether your number is 271 or 351, they still call you President all the same.  It’s smart campaign strategy.

This is the schedule – subject to change – for each candidate in coming days:

Thursday November 1
Obama: Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado
Romney: Virginia

Friday November 2
Obama: Ohio
Romney: Wisconsin, Ohio

Saturday November 3
Obama: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia
Romney: New Hamphshire, Colorado

Sunday November 4
Obama: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Colorado
Romney: n/a

Monday November 5
Obama: n/a
Romney: final rally in New Hampshire

Expect changes and additions to this schedule as we get closer to Election Day.

UPDATE: kostby in the comment section did the analysis I should have.  I’m trying to get on those Marist polls (who doesn’t enjoy a good game of “whack-a-poll” on the morining?) but if you look at kostby’s analysis within the Karl Rove 3-2-1 context you have to feel really good about his chances. 3: Indiana (done), North Carolina (done), Virginia (virtually done). 2: Florida (done) and Ohio (all the marbles). 1: Colorado (strongest play), New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin all better bets than Nevada. You have to like Romney’s chances looking at the travel schedule with that context.  Thanks to kostby for inspiring the additional analysis.

I look at Romney’s schedule like this.

He needs NC, FL, VA, Ohio + one of Colorado, NH, WI, or Iowa. NC and FL are in the bag. So you hit VA once even though the polling is good. The one last visit gets you local TV coverage and excites your campaign workers. Ohio is the whole enchilada so you hit it hard even IF you are winning. Then you hit Wisconsin because you can win it to improve your mandate, but also because it is key to alternate paths if Ohio doesn’t work out.

Assuming NC, Fl, and VA are already in the bag for Romney then you have these alternatives to win:

Alternative 1 — Ohio + any one of CO, NH, IA, WI
Alternative 2 — WI + CO + either NH or IA
Alternative 3 — CO, NH, IA, and NV

I’m starting to feel like it’s going to be: OH, CO, WI, IA, NH as well. That would put Romney at 295.

64 Comments

  1. Barf
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:15 am | Permalink | Reply

    Keith,

    Are you going to keep the blog up after the election? You may get an offer from Fox News. Best of luck to you.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      My focus is on November 6. Anything other than winning is a distraction. Thanks for the compliments though.

      • GLENN
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

        I would love some insight from Keith or anyone else on this site as to why there aren’t as many R-leaning polls out there to offset all these damn D-leaning polls??? This happens every election!! I think that Keith should start his own polling firm. I would be willing to make a financial contribution to help him set up such an operation. Who’s with me?????

  2. kostby
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:19 am | Permalink | Reply

    I look at Romney’s schedule like this.

    He needs NC, FL, VA, Ohio + one of Colorado, NH, WI, or Iowa. NC and FL are in the bag. So you hit VA once even though the polling is good. The one last visit gets you local TV coverage and excites your campaign workers. Ohio is the whole enchilada so you hit it hard even IF you are winning. Then you hit Wisconsin because you can win it to improve your mandate, but also because it is key to alternate paths if Ohio doesn’t work out.

    Assuming NC, Fl, and VA are already in the bag for Romney then you have these alternatives to win:

    Alternative 1 — Ohio + any one of CO, NH, IA, WI
    Alternative 2 — WI + CO + either NH or IA
    Alternative 3 — CO, NH, IA, and NV

    I’m starting to feel like it’s going to be: OH, CO, WI, IA, NH as well. That would put Romney at 295.

    Still can’t see Michigan happening, but could see 322 (ME-2, NV, PA plus the 295 above).

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:59 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s close to where I am:

      FL, VA, CO gets to 257. The EV’s that go next in order to Romney:

      New Hampshire – 4
      Wisconsin – 10
      Iowa – 6
      Ohio – 18

      It’s among those, in a close election, that Romney is going to get the remaining 13 EV’s. I think it will be a mix of NH/WI/IA before Ohio. The others (starting with all the above and 295):

      ME02 – 1
      Pennsylvania – 20
      Nevada – 6
      Michigan – 16

      EV top is 338 (not very likely)

      The most likely scenario is that 3 out of 4 of IA, NH, WI, OH to win.

  3. Benson
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    I had the misfortune of checking into MSNBC while they were talking about the polls. I know- I know. Anyways, Mark Halperin said that many “republican insiders” not affiliated with the campaign see Romney spending time and money in PA and WI and MN as a sign that he knows he is going to lose and is throwing a hail mary. Ironically I hear many Democrats close to Obama’s campaign saying this – but when i hear a supposed insider saying republicans feel this way it gave me pause. My take is that Halperin is peddling snake oil- but the fact that so many lefties are willing to stick their necks out so far with the narrative gives me pause. Not to mention if Obama loses they are so far in the tank that they go down with the ship.

    • kostby
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      Still hard to see how Romney loses OH while winning Indies by 7 to 12 points

      • ed
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:38 am | Permalink

        I agree, the 250,000 net loss in Dem early voting, the surge in independents and the loss of the youth vote…all this is based on actual early voting. Now that hard data combined with the fact that the GOP will will Nov. 6th voting, I’m really confident here.

    • valleyforge
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:44 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’ll believe Michael Barone’s opinion informed by decades of data crunching and clear-headed insight that this reads weakness for Obama before I believe hearsay from Mark Halperin. Actually, I’ll believe the Easter Bunny sneezes rainbows before I believe Mr. Mark “CW” Halperin.

      • ed
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink

        Believe it or not, Halperin appears to be highly esteemed on this blog. I have not had a chance to read too much of his stuff, but I heretofore had classified him as a Juan Williams type of character. I’ll have to rethink my bias.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      Who knows who these Republican “insiders” are? At the very least, it fits the MSNBC template regarding Romney is losing at he is throwing a Hail Mary. Maybe the insider is Colin Powell.

    • NMVM
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      I would simply point out that when MSNBCers quote “republican insiders not affiliated with the campaign” on these issues, they are often talking about former McCain/Palin campaign strategists. Not surprising that they would see this as a hail mary because:

      1) They don’t have access to the campaigns internals, so they can only go off of public polls
      2) This is the strategy they tried, and it was a hail mary in that case

      P.S. These insiders were totally right about Benghazi too. Romney was clearly wrong to criticize the President, right? How did that one turn out?

    • edtitan77
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think Halperin is being truthful just like Dems have a problem with nervous nellies the GOP does too. Boston has run a good campaign despite catching zero breaks from the fourth estate and negativity from fellow Conservatives.

      Romney will win.

    • Chris
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:38 am | Permalink | Reply

      There’s no doubt there are “Republican insiders” saying that to Halperin, but I wouldn’t pay them any mind. For one thing, Romney has cash to burn, and with the swing states inundated already it makes sense to expand the map regardless of how it looks in Ohio. Secondly, there’s nothing wrong with searching for alternate paths to victory when the state this whole thing hinges on is, at best, tied…that’s not a sign he knows he’s losing, it’s just smart politics. Lastly, notice which campaign is expanding the map. In ’08, Obama at this point was going into Indiana and North Carolina and Virginia, while both sides duked it out in Missouri and McCain basically camped out in PA. Today, however, we see that neither Indiana or Missouri are even being contested, as they’ve been firmly in Romney’s column this whole cycle. NC is a good bet to go Romney, as is VA and FL and, frankly, CO, while OH, IA, and NH are up for grabs. It’s Obama playing defense, here…if they thought Romney was losing, why bother to pour resources into MN, WI, PA, etc? You’d see Obama try to pick off McCain states IF any looked like possibilities, but it’s telling that NONE do, where as Romney does have options in bluish areas.

      I’m not one of those predicting a landslide or anything close to it…if Romney wins, I think it’ll be with just a little more than 270. But, I’d rather be in the position of expanding the map then defending ever shrinking territory.

      • pjbrien
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink

        Whenever you hear Republican insider or elite from Halperin it really just means Steve Schmidt or Michael Steele whispered something in his ear.Hardly anything to get worried about.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      These “insiders” are living in the past. Remember, R has a gazillion $$$$ and needs to spend them before Tuesday (with the exception of some withheld for ballot challenges). Why not expand the map. I suspect many of these “insiders” are jealous former McCain campaigners.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      interesting considering just the other day it was Halperin that said Chicago is clearly worried about MI, PA and MN…so which is it Marky Mark?

    • tmcvei
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am new to this blog and I am wondering what everyone feels about the 538 polling analysis web site. It seems to very objective and thorough. It does not seem to be a left leaning polling site but it puts forth a pretty strong case for why Obama is winning. Has anyone shot holes in the way they analyze the polls?

  4. Matt
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    New NBC poll has Obama +3 w/ DRI of 33/28/37… No way Republicans only get 28% to the polls. The recall was 35-R to 34-D. WI is AT LEAST tied.

    • Benson
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:43 am | Permalink | Reply

      NBCs new polls moniker should be NBC+7D

    • Guest
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      All the WI polls are contradictory.

      We can agree that Obama has a tiny lead with indies there. We can also agree that turnout will not be D+5.

      In truth, yeah, a slight tilt towards Obama, easily solved with a strategic use of messaging and surrogates. I wonder if agriculture, education, healthcare and welfare may not be hidden issues here.

    • Guest
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:52 am | Permalink | Reply

      In any case, I think Marquette is, erm, a bit weird.

      Even NBC shows a smaller Obama lead…

    • Mick
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink | Reply

      There is no way turnout is going to be anywhere near D+5 in Wisconsin. The last PPP poll in the Walker recall election (the mother of democrat elections because democrats were stark raving mad) only a few months ago was D+3, and PPP was off by three against Walker. It’s going to be D+1 at most, maybe Even. Vice President Joe Biden is campaigning in the Superior Middle School Cafeteria on Friday in Superior, Wisconsin, a place where you can put (D) on your name and get 66 percent of the vote sleep walking. You heard me right, a school cafeteria. Their internals must be horrible in Wisconsin, which was the inconvienient truth that one of the surrogates spouted off mistakingly at a Wisconsin campaign event about early voting. These polls are just propaganda and spin aimed at improving Democratic band wagon turnout and demoralizing conservatives. Wisconsin will go for R/R, you can bet on it.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:52 am | Permalink | Reply

      The early voting tells the tale here. The Ds are in trouble in WI and they know it. Why send O to Milwaukee? To try to boost his margins there, which he desperately needs. Looks like the ring suburbs are going heavily R, and the Dane county margin won’t be enough by itself.

      I think this is going R this year. Cool.

  5. Jerry
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    This is the best blog out there I look at few but Ireally enjoy this one the best!!!! I think 295 EV’s for Romney sounds about right with a 3 to 4 point win in the popular vote!!!!

  6. Rick
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:43 am | Permalink | Reply

    No headliners to Minnesota….I still feel that Minnesota is in play. Lots of TV/radio ads from Romney super-PACS and the Obama campaign.

    There seems to be little enthusiasm for Obama’s re-election here in the Twin Cities. From the anecdotal perspective, I see few Obama bumper stickers and few lawn signs during my commutes. Amazingly, there are few Obama lawn signs in the North Minneapolis African-American neighborhoods….this could be due to the gay marriage initiative on the ballot.

    It could go either way here next week.

    • Philanthropic_Extortinist
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:27 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’d love to agree with you but this state is more hipster than a chinese neck tattoo. For some reason, there is a huge liberal rich contingency that aligns with the “grassroots, bicycle, co-op community” types, and you know that the local media eats it all up. Honestly, if this state had a nonbias media it would go Rep in a heart beat.

      • Rick
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:53 am | Permalink

        Agree. I live with them here in the peoples republic. But the 2008 intensity is just gone.

      • AJ
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 11:12 am | Permalink

        Rick i live here too. Obama will win by 5 instead of 10. Too many hipsters here in MN.

  7. No Tribe
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:46 am | Permalink | Reply

    So here’s what my last 40 events, guessing, were for Romney:
    http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/10/romney-crowd-in-sidney-ohio-is-obama-size-according-to-jeff-zeleny-of-the-new-york-times/#comment-8962

    And here are the updated schedule appearances:

    Obama

    Tue/23rd: Florida, Ohio
    Wed/24th: Iowa, Colorado, Nevada
    Thur/25th: Florida, Virginia, Ohio
    Fri/26th: – (DC)
    Sat/27th: New Hampshire
    Sun/28th: – (DC)
    Mon/29th: Florida, Ohio
    Tue/30th: – (DC)
    Wed/31st: – (DC, New Jersey)
    Thur/1st: Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio
    Fri/2nd: Ohio, Ohio
    Sat/3rd: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia
    Sun/4th: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Colorado
    Mon/5th:

    Romney
    Tue/23rd: Nevada, Colorado
    Wed/24th: Nevada, Iowa
    Thur/25th: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
    Fri/26th: Iowa, Ohio
    Sat/27th: Florida, Florida, Florida
    Sun/28th: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
    Mon/29th: Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin
    Tue/30th: – (Ohio)
    Wed/31st: Florida, Florida, Florida
    Thur/1st: Virginia, Virginia, Virginia
    Fri/2nd: Wisconsin, Ohio, Ohio
    Sat/3rd: New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Colorado
    Sun/4th:
    Mon/5th: New Hampshire

    Romney just squeezed in that Iowa tarmac event on the 3rd. But here’s a look at the predicted/actual thus far:

    Ohio-13/11
    Virginia-8/3
    Florida-6/6
    Iowa-4/4
    Colorado-3/3
    Nevada-2/2
    Wisconsin-2/2
    New Hampshire 1/2
    Pennsylvania-1/0

    I expected the last minute NH stop, but not 2! The state am off on is Virginia. What a surprise that NoVA has weakened for Obama with turnout expectations lowered. I would love to see the Romney PA stop still happen. He will likely be back in Ohio on the 4th and the 5th. Probably Virginia too.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      This looks like the following to me. O is going all out to win Ohio, hoping that WI and NH stay blue. R thinks he has a decent chance there, but just in case he’s going for NH and WI as insurance. Both camps believe that R has CO,VA, NC, FL at this point. R is wiiling to concede NV. R thinks he has Iowa based on the early voting returns as well.

      Look where they are going in each state to get an even better idea of their plans. The idea now is to drive up margins in key counties.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink

        PS–speaking of key counties, the power will likely be out in a significant portion of Cuyahoga county in OH until Monday. This has got to hurt O.

  8. valleyforge
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    I heard that double-digit win remark about Florida. I think the spokesman was referring to independents, not the state overall. No one has won Florida by more than 5.5 points since 1988 when it was part of the Reagan-Bush solid south so such a boast now would be ludicrous.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:03 am | Permalink | Reply

      The Romney spokesman clarified that he saw a double digit win when it came to turnout on election day itself. This is possible. The GOP has very strong turnout on election day every cycle. Obama carried Florida last time due only to their massive early voting/absentee voting push.

    • John
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      The write up I read about the conference call yesterday where the “double digit” remark came from clarified and said it was for election day margin, not total votes. Makes sense in that context based on history.

  9. valleyforge
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 8:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not quite seeing any desperate non-stop 96-hour blitzes of the battlegrounds a la Dole in 1996 from either side. But Obama’s hectic schedule comes closest, trying to stay at the top of the local news cycle in as many states as possible each day. Plus he already did his 48-hour non-stop blitz last week.

  10. kyle
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Pretty scary. After 4 years of the diaster of this administration and it comes down to my home state of Ohio!! Wisconsin is the back up plan if we lose. I feel preety confident in Colorado and New Hampshire. Not so much for Wisconsin. Its gonna be Ohio or bust!!

  11. boaz parson
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    Totally non-subject-matter related to this topic. I want a new legislation that requires any incumbent president to pay for his use of AirForce One whenever it is been used for his campaign visits according to the prorated measure by percentage allocated to his campaign activities when he mixes it with his presidential duties..

  12. jvnvch
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    I like to keep it simple, when possible. I think it’s clear that Romney is going to do at least five points better than McCain did in 2008, and President Obama at least five points worse than he did, meaning Romney will win all the states and the district that McCain lost by less than ten points last time. Those are North Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. That’s enough to put Romney over the top. Anything else will be gravy.

  13. John
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    In senate news it appears candidate Deb Fisher here in Nebraska may be close to fumbling the ball. Polls over the summer and early fall showed her up double digits but a recent statewide pole by the Omaha World-Herald shows her holding a slim 3-point lead over Bob Kerry who was secretly bribed by Harry Reid to even run. Kerry’s relentless negative ads agains Fischer are working and they said on the radio this morning that Karl Rove’s PAC will be buying $500,000 of radio/TV during the remaining 5 days. Rove is reportedly really pissed about it because he wants to be spending those dollars in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. not in Nebraska where the Republican senate gain was supposedly in the bag. Eventhough Nebraska is one of the top most Republican states in the country for some reason the state has a love affair with Kerry. Hard to figure out as he was a very reliable vote for the Democrat agenda when he was in the senate before.

    • petep
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      Bob Kerrey has the benefit of beingone of the more reasonable democrats out there, which supplies him a good shot back to the Senate.

      I thought he would do well, but he wad really rusty for awhile. I hope we pull this out.

    • Loach
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The same OWH poll by Wiese in 2010 had Lee Terry (R) up on Tom White (D) in NE2 by only 5 points. He won by 20. Fischer’s internal polls show her up by 12-15 points. If Nebraskans vote Cosmic Bob back into office then this state is dumber than I ever imagined. A vote for Kerrey is a vote for Obamacare.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      this one was bound to tighten…I went to school in Omaha and have several friends in politics. The state tends to send more Republicans to federal office but is one of those where local politics tend to be democratic. My guess is this is the lack of R spending and tons of D spending with an old, common name….Omaha, Lincoln have probably tightened considerbly. 3 points thought 4 days out…is a fairly large margin for even Bob to over come considering a finite number of voters.

  14. Kramerica
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:27 am | Permalink | Reply

    I read this today. I don’t know what to make of it exactly, but it sounds a lot like us (Romney supporters) this election. thoughts?? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/31/67270/-Kerry-Will-Win-Big

    • Dan
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:43 am | Permalink | Reply

      It is all about data not emotion. A few days ago someone in the comments published the picture of Ohio polls in 2004, including RCP average, in the last two weeks vs 2012,,,historic data. Rove’s comments last night…data based. I see no data in this old “dailytrotsky” piece. As others have said… thanks Keith for allowing a place where data can be shared.

      • Kramerica
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:45 am | Permalink

        Dan, I think you are right, but the article gave me pause.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:28 am | Permalink

        Right, our arguments are based a bunch of data points.

        Right now, the Dem’s arguments are based on the top-lines of polls they like (never looking inside), fivethirtyeight (which is based on those same polls) and intrade, which I’m sure is based on those polls. It’s gospel

        Enthusisasm gap favoring republicans? meaningless
        the fact that some ‘safe’ blue states are now so close according to those polls that they are in play? Desperate bluff by Romney camp
        University of Colorado model that has been right every time since 1980 showing a decisive Romney win? So what? Fivethirtyeight was right in 2008, therefore infallible
        Gallup, the most respected pollster in the country showing a big Romney lead? must be an outlier

    • Jim S.
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      Not really, the article is saying “Kerry is going to win, look at the polling!”. What we are saying here is that the polling this election season is highly suspect and making assumptions about the electorate this year based on 2008 and some questionable LV screening. The key question this election is how do you think the Dem and GOP bases will perform relative to 2008, and where does it look like the indies will go?

      • Kramerica
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink

        I have been reading a lot about the 1980 and 2004 elections. There are so many similarities with both of those elections to this election. The question is: is this 1980 or 2004??

      • NMVM
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:09 am | Permalink

        I’ll take either. Republicans won both 🙂

        But seriously, so key differences:

        1980: Carter was much more unpopular, and there were many more undecideds to pick off. Much better conditions for a late breaking landslide.
        2004: Bush was in a much more solid position in 2004 than Obama is in this cycle. He started from a slightly higher support level, and was able to fend off a late charge from Kerry. I don’t buy for a second that Kerry was up in Ohio 1-2 weeks out and that Bush made the comeback (the story you get from RCP 2004 averages). Let’s also not forget that Bush 2004 did marginally better than Bush 2000 in both popular vote and EC. I don’t think anyone is even entertaining that possibility this time around (except maybe PPP).

  15. stuckinmass
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    With all the ‘terrible’ polls that have been discussed since yesterday, I haven’t seen The Franklin & Marshall PA poll mentioned. Romney down 4 with a D+13 advantage and winning independents by 16%?

    I thought I read that PA has a 6pt Dem registration advantage, and with the enthusiasm gap the actual results will be closer.

    • exe
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      Here’s the F&M poll:
      https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct12_1.pdf

      The D+13 weighting is of RV, not LV. I remember looking yesterday to see the LV split and thought it was reasonable to 2008, but I can’t seem to find it right now. Plus PA has a low share of independents (10%) and undecided (10%)…with the way Independents have been breaking for Romney, and the propensity for undecideds to break for challenger, this low share poses a problem for RR in PA.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 11:47 am | Permalink

        I had an e-mail exchange with one of the pollsters of that poll.

        It was Dems +6 LV.

        He said they do their LV screen and if it comes out D+6, that’s what they go with.

  16. ed
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    Maybe its too early, well yes, it is too early but, what a President Romney and GOP congress need to do, is break up the 9th circuit and appoint textualist judges. Looks like Romney will have his chance to appoint 2 S. Ct. justices. This very important agenda can’t get lost in the obvious serious economic issues Romney will be addressing.

  17. John
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen is late again today (likley storm related) but the statement below was on their Presidential tracking page yesterday. After three days of this increased sample size the MOE should drop below 2.0 making it the most precise (and possibly most accurate) national poll of any available..

    “For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we will conduct 1,000 survey interviews per night.”

  18. Jim S.
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    Some early voting(Absentee I believe) numbers from Dave Wasserman at cook politcal report.

    VA. VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today’s new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off ’08 pace

    VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama ’08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain ’08 (statewide down 9.2%)

    VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in ’08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in ’08)

    VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O…in Kerry ’04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. ’08 (only -1.7% in Bush)

    VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..

  19. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    Wanted to update this…Carl Cameron (Fox News) traveling with Romney just said that Romney WILL visit PA over the weekend. Also, I have seen some intersting articles about PA, saying Romney has a strong chance of winning PA. Democrats are saying Dem. voters are not enthused in the state and Republicans are!
    Here is a great article, please read!
    http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-debate-pennsylvanias-play-211555800.html

  20. Tall Guy
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 12:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OK. I shouldn’t indulge but I come here to amuse myself with the stunningly bad logic you guys use.

    Obama is fighting hard in Ohio because the campaign knows that he is losing…..

    I’ve heard spin but this is just fucking ridiculous. If you have a one run lead in the end of a baseball game, do you want your closer out there throwing heat or should he just toss the ball over the plate because hey we’re winning and winners are supposed to sit on a small lead in the end of the game?

    You can look at a schedule that says Obama is working harder than Romney is and somehow manage to spin that into a good thing for Romney. I’m stunned at how bad your logic is.

    • lotmini
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 12:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      logic: Romney not going back to FL, why? He must win it. Logic says, Romney feels really good bout FL. Logic: if O is well ahead in IO, NV, WI, PA, MN,MI, NH AND CO,
      HE DOESNT EVEN NEED VA OR OHIO TO WIN why spend 4 days in OH and VA? Because he loves to work hard. Golf hard, party hard yes…work hard? He has to be in OH and Va because he needs atleast one or he cant win. Logical.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      on the surface you are right…if you are winning you play defense in sports

      But let’s look at this in a war referrence as it is probably closer to politics, so you have your defense line and an oncoming attacking force.
      They are trying to break through your line and take your castle. Now your castle has a few openings (iowa, NH, CO, NV, WI, PA, MN, MI) and one major large gate (Ohio).

      Scenario 1 …you put all your forces into one column and defend that main gate because you outnumber your foes and you have more and better weapons and all the other gates are secure and unpenetrable. because How would you classify this?
      Well I would say if your outnumber opposing force is hitting you straight up the gut into your fiercest warriors they are deep doo-doo. You will lose a few but the likley outcome is you slaughter them.

      Scenario 2….Your attackers are 1-1 with your forces. They have equal weapons and equal forces. Instead of coming up the main gate and only the main gate. They are instead attacking all 8 of your gates with a equalized forces…your castle is in severe danger of falling if they crack through more than 3 of those lines/gates. You as the defender have to have your general running across and back and forth to all 8 gates to keep the soldiers spirits up and fighting…but the attackers just keep coming and they seemingly seem to be gaining a few extra fighters as they advance.
      How would you clasify this?
      I would say while you still do have the castle and the odds are if you can repel the force you keep the castle. But you are in a precarious position that you must defend 8 openings and can only lose three or you lose your entire castle.

  21. Tall Guy
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nobody ever said Obama was well ahead anywhere.

    I think he knows its a close game and I think he knows that he needs to work hard to win. It should be obvious that whether you are winning a close game or losing a close game, you better play hard until the end.

    What I really don’t get is your logic which appears to be “Only losers play hard in close games”. I am literally scratching my head as to how any adult could conceivably think such a thing.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Do you have head lice?

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think the point is that Obama is fighting on turf that no one thought was close even a couple of weeks ago.

      The places that were considered close a couple of weeks ago (NC. FL) are being virtually abandoned by Obama.

      It’s not that he’s fighting hard, it’s *where* he is fighting hard that’s the story.

  22. M. White
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 2:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We’ve got huge problems in OHIO, NC, and NV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    http://twitchy.com/2012/11/01/whoa-voting-machines-in-ohio-nc-nev-switching-romney-votes-to-votes-for-obama/
    Machines defaulting to Obama, no matter how many times people select Romney!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: