Romney Path to Victory in Iowa

When media outlets like NBC moved Iowa to lean Obama in mid-September I was beyond dubious.  The race in the Hawkeye state looked air tight to me and I expected it to remain that way through election day.  This intriguing piece indicates Iowa was slipping out of reach for Romney until the first debate. Plenty of interesting nuggets in this great Scott Conroy piece over at Real Clear Politics:

A month ago, as Mitt Romney’s campaign appeared to be foundering on just about every front, even allies of the Republican nominee believed his hopes for recovery to be particularly grim here in Iowa. At the time, he was failing to generate much enthusiasm in his western Iowa stronghold, and President Obama’s vaunted ground game in the state — which had launched him toward the Oval Office in 2008 — was humming along with an efficiency that threatened to put the state out of reach.

Failing to mind the gap

Particularly concerning for the Romney camp was the extent to which its internal polling showed the challenger getting blown out in Obama’s eastern Iowa strongholds of Black Hawk and Linn counties, which encompass the population hubs of Waterloo-Cedar Falls and Cedar Rapids, respectively. Romney did not have to come close to winning in either of those counties, his team had calculated, but in order to have a shot at the Hawkeye State’s six electoral votes, he needed a respectable showing in each.

The debate that changed everything

Just when many Republicans here were about to give up hope, the former Massachusetts governor squared off against Obama in the Oct. 3 debate. Overnight, this traditionally Democratic-leaning swing state became one of his most inviting targets. “A month ago, I could hear the sounds of the Obama train steaming up and leaving the station. He was poised to pull away, which would have had impact up and down the ballot,” said longtime Iowa Republican strategist Bob Haus. “Then, a debate happened and the race was recast in 90 minutes. It’s hard to tell you what an impact it had.”

Minding the gap and then some

Since his commanding performance in Denver, Romney has not only closed the gap somewhat in Black Hawk and Linn counties, he has seen a significant boost in the intensity of support in the dark-red, soon-to-be liquidated 5th Congressional District represented by Steve King. In the 2012 caucuses, Rick Santorum dominated that deeply conservative western section of the state, while Romney struggled to connect with the heavily evangelical and rural population (just as he did in his 2008 caucuses loss to Mike Huckabee). But the Republican nominee now appears to have built a comfortable, double-digit lead over Obama in most of those counties, and his campaign expects turnout there to be sky-high on Nov. 6.

Expanding the Iowa map

Perhaps even more important for Romney, internal polls have shown him closing Obama’s narrow advantage in swing voter-heavy Scott County, where the GOP standard-bearer held a rally Monday in Davenport. In his remarks introducing Romney at that event, Iowa Republican Gov. Terry Branstad noted that he had won the county in each of his five gubernatorial campaigns and suggested that the candidate’s economic message would produce similar results on Tuesday.

Driving the base

Additionally, the Romney campaign believes that it is outperforming its goal in the heavily white, blue-collar counties that dot southeastern Iowa, an encouraging sign for any statewide Republican candidate. “Our state Senate tracking polls are moving [Romney’s] way in swing districts, and the sweep of endorsements over the weekend gives him a sense of momentum,” said Iowa GOP operative Steve Grubbs. “I predict he wins Iowa.”

Reaching new voters

Indeed, The Des Moines Register’s backing of Romney this past weekend came as a surprise to just about everyone in Iowa politics. In spite of the kerfuffle that resulted from the Obama campaign’s original stipulation that the paper’s editorial board interview the president off the record, there was little reason to believe that the state’s most widely circulated newspaper would back a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1972. The endorsement came as a pleasant shock to Iowa Republicans…[D]espite the Register’s reach and the high regard with which its political coverage continues to earn, there is little question that its influence has waned. But taken in combination with endorsements by Iowa’s three other major dailies — The Cedar Rapids Gazette, Quad Cities Times, and Sioux City Journal — Romney’s ability to win over top opinion-makers in the state is emblematic of a remarkable turnaround, especially given the tsunami of positive media coverage Obama enjoyed here four years ago.

Polk County FTW?

Perhaps the area of the state that each campaign will pay closest attention to heading toward Election Day is Polk County — the most populous of Iowa’s 99 counties and home of the capital, Des Moines. Romney strategists believe that the Republican can lose Polk County and still carry the state, but they must keep Obama’s margins down in the capital region. That’s one reason they dispatched Ann Romney to Des Moines on Tuesday evening, where the former first lady of Massachusetts hosted the first Romney rally since the campaign suspended all of its overtly political events in light of the devastation from Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic area. Vice President Joe Biden will be close on her heels when he arrives in Iowa on Thursday for rallies in Muscatine and Fort Dodge.

62 Comments

  1. Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is great news, Keith. But what do you make of articles by both Jay Cost and Sean Trende today suggesting that the conflict between state and national polls is so perplexing that the outcome of the election is not clear. These are two of the best political commentators around.

    • Kevin Paradine
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That both feel the same way we do. Disbelieving such a prevalent case of collusion in the media and amongst pollsters to favor one political party over another, despite all the evidence suggesting so. They will wait until the proof comes before speaking.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Are any of the state polls weighted for likely turnout? Most of the ones I’ve looked at have Dem oversampling, sometimes by large margins. A lot of the demographic information spells big trouble for Obama in them, like support from independents or groups of voters (ie suburban voters) are favoring Romney. But yet the top-line says it’s close and doesn’t seem realistic given what the poll actually says.

      The MSM doesn’t analyze the polls based on internals, they look at the top line and take it as gospel.

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      With OH slipping away, there’s reason to worry.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

        Yes, you and Axelrod should both be very concerned.

        -ZR

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

        Just teasing you Brad. 🙂 Focus concern into GOTV efforts.

        -ZR

      • Mike
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

        Just in case anyone was wondering what happened the last time OH was competitive.

        The Ohio polls released between 10/20 – 10/26 of 2004 were:
        Kerry +1
        Kerry +4
        Bush +4
        Bush +2
        Kerry +6
        Kerry +2
        Kerry +3

        Avg: Kerry +3.1

        The National polls release between 10/27 to 11/2, election day:
        Bush +1
        Bush +3
        Bush +4
        Bush +2
        Bush +1
        Kerry +4
        Bush +2
        Bush +2
        Bush +3
        Bush +6

        Avg: Bush +2

        You can all ask President Kerry what he thought of those OH polls.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

        And one of those two Ohio polls showing Bush ahead was………… Rasmussen!

      • DAMIEN
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

        ya those plus 8 and plus 9 dem samples say ohio is slipping away

    • edtitan77
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They are the best follow both on Twitter. I think if pushed they’d say something is amiss with state polls.

    • JP
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Terrible article IMHO

  2. billyboy
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ok, since this is the most recent post I am jumping on here to share some Nevada Senate polling numbers which I think, if correct, bodes well for Mitt. Heller (R) leads Berkley (D) 46-40 which is consistent with other polls. Interestingly with those who have already cast their ballots it is 47-45 HELLER. In addition on election day it is 48-34 Heller. Among independents it is 48-28 Heller. Now someone smarter than I needs to look at this, the current early voting trend and let us know what this may mean for Romney???? This poll is on th ereview journal website, http://www.lvrj.com

  3. christopher
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just found this tidbit. I’ll leave the analysis to those more capable on this website. But I certainly like the margin and trend. I do know that these three papers are 2,3 and 4 in terms of size in the Florida marketplace…. 6 days and counting.

    A new poll shows Mitt Romney with a seven point lead over President Obama in Florida. The poll by the Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, and Tampa Bay Times shows Romney with 51% percent to Obamas 44% with a 3.5% margin of error.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Isn’t this an Oct 16th poll. If not what is the link

  4. Dabrisha
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    More polls on Florida (Romney +3), VA (Romney +5), and OH (Obama +2) should steady those who were a bit nervous from this mornings CBS/NYT poll. As they say, on CBS, all you c is bs. Your October surprise:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/31/gingrich_networks_may_have_wh_emails_commanding_rescue_team_to_stand_down_on_benghazi.html

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      FL and VA look good. The OH poll doesn’t “steady” me at all, as it appears that state is slipping away and te reason Romney is in WI, MN, MI and PA now is that he’s looking for another (much tougher) path to 270.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

        Brad…i share your concern. I cannot figure out this tack from Romney.
        They are ACTING like a campaign that is pretty damn sure they will win and are moving to expand the map.
        YET, they are still working hard on Virginia and Florida, states that people here have said are done, in the bag.
        AND the of course are not saying with any level of gusto they WILL WIN.

        Obama taking time off the trail to be President in one part worries me in that he feels comfortable enough he can take a few days off to do his job cause it’s locked up and the other part heartens me that he is so desperate for a game changer he decides to go and try to Bill “i feel your pain” Clinton for the storm.

        But at the same time as has been pointed out here many many times…why would you try to make up what is a 2 point disadvantage in a state that has flipped back and fort often (OHIO, with stated internasl showing you tied or up) to try and crack a state like Wisconsin that hasn’t gone R since 84, Minn that hasn’t gone since 1972 and Penn that hasnt gone since 88.

        Maybe they know they have NH, CO and IA but it isn’t enough and maybe Ohio internals have softened and they hope for a miracle to flip a big state.

        this year is maddening. it makes no sense what so ever.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

        “as it appears that state is slipping away.”

        What is this based on? “It appears”–appears based on what?

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

        It was a D+8 poll showing Obama +5. I wouldn’t say Ohio is slipping away. It is certainly close. Obama has been “poisoning the water” for Romney in Ohio for months. That is tough to overcome. I think Romney has NC and FL. VA is likely too. That puts Romney at 248 with CO leaning his way. 257. Obama has to hold all the big states MN, MI, PA, WI, and OH. It seems clear that Obama needs Ohio more than Romney. Romney can get Wisconsin and either NH or Iowa and still win.

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

        Polls William…polls. The only poll to have Romney up in the last several weeks is Rass. and that was only by 2. I don’t disagree that there’s a problem with oversampling, but I disagree that Romney is ahead. Looks like O +1-2 right now.

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

        Tim, w/o OH, RR needs IA and WI. Tall order.

      • Philanthropic_Extortinist
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

        Brad, not true about needing IA and WI. NH is very interesting. With CO, Virginia, NC, and FL all for Romney…and Virgina IS for Romney. Then NH and WI are the next easiest path if OH goes for Obama. With Ryan being from Wisc. and NH Dem enthusiasm down this is a very real scenario to 270+. Additionally, IA is not a tall order by any means. Essential that state is tied and with the newspapers endorsing Romney that can impact the election there. A prominent Dem, Bob Beckel, recently stated that the most influental newspaper in this election was the Des Moines Register.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

        it’s pretty clear to me that they are playing in PA, WI, MI and MN because Obama’s lead is evaporating and they are now close. If those states have gotten that close, how can OH be a lost cause? Doesn’t add up. Romney may not be able to win all those states, but he is forcing the Obama campaign to defend them, and that will make it harder for Obama to eat away at Romney’s lead in the other swing states.

        Obama did not leave the campaign trail out of confidence. He left because he HAS to. Could you imagine if he was campaigning in the aftermath of Sandy? That would destroy him politically.

      • Philanthropic_Extortinist
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

        stuckinmass,

        I agree that the Dems are on the defense big time. To be on defense at this point is dangerous for any campaign. I also believe OH is Romney’s to lose. One theory I have is that the Rep are moving to these other areas not out of necessity but to widen a gap so large that a recount in any state would be pointless.

      • MattWestfall
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

        I suspect another reason for the mutual widening is the vast amount of resources each side has to throw at the race. Several battlegrounds are saturated, so the ammunition has to go somewhere. I thinks its as much a function of supply and demand; the supply has outstripped the current demands so they have pushed into new markets. The question was just ‘where.’ And these states would appear to make most sense.

      • Philanthropic_Extortinist
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

        Great point Matt. From what I hear, OH is past the saturation point (if thats even possible).

      • Dean
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

        Agree. Not a good day.

        However, this is a game changer, perhaps, if it comes to fruition. It’s supposed to be based on today’s PMI

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/grim-preview-fridays-jobs-number

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in FL and it is locked down, but the ad buys lately have all featured Connie Mack’s name tied to Mitt. His appearances have all featured Mack and his stump speeches in FL have all included a mention of the need for a GOP Senate with Romney asking us to elect Mack. I wonder if its the same with Allen. He is here campaigning for GOP Senate which speaks of confidence.

  5. mchlgregg
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Reblogged this on Michael Gregg.

  6. mchlgregg
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey guys, checkout this site: http://www.resurgentrepublic.com

    Lots of really great information regarding the view of the Independent voter.

  7. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Marquette has O +8 in WI

  8. Benson
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here is why the polls are obviously biased- found this tidbit at Ace. Remember ‘absentee voting’ is not ‘early voting do it doesn’y build a lead but does show enthusiasm.

    GOP Routing Democrats in Pennsylvania Absentee-Ballot Returns, 55%-36%
    —Ace

    As far as history: the GOP edged the Democrats in absentee balloting in 2008, but only by 2%, in a 10% loss to Obama.

    Absentee voting is a small slice of the voting pie, and not on the same scale as early voting. For example, in 2008, there were just shy of 300,000 absentee votes cast. So far in this cycle, 115,000 total absentee ballots have been returned.

  9. Benson
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Try again
    Here is why the polls are obviously biased- found this tidbit at Ace. Remember ‘absentee voting’ is not ‘early voting’ so it doesn’t build a lead but does show enthusiasm.

    GOP Routing Democrats in Pennsylvania Absentee-Ballot Returns, 55%-36%
    —Ace

    As far as history: the GOP edged the Democrats in absentee balloting in 2008, but only by 2%, in a 10% loss to Obama.

    Absentee voting is a small slice of the voting pie, and not on the same scale as early voting. For example, in 2008, there were just shy of 300,000 absentee votes cast. So far in this cycle, 115,000 total absentee ballots have been returned.

  10. MattWestfall
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Axelrod says he will shave his mustache on TV if Obama loses one of MI, MN or PA. Frankly one of the best parts of any of those states going to Romney would be never having to see his face on TV again. Just sayin.

    • Loach
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Notice he didn’t make this promise about OH or WI

  11. No Tribe
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The swing counties in Iowa are numberous!

    Iowa:

    Adams

    Allamakee

    Audubon

    Bremer

    Carroll

    Cedar

    Crawford

    Delaware

    Emmett

    Franklin

    Greene

    Hamilton

    Hardin

    Iowa

    Kossuth

    Louisa

    Marshall

    Palo Alto

    Union

    Warren

    Winnebago

    What is the latest on Early Voting out of Iowa, any recent analysis that anyone’s come across?

  12. Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    National Journal Poll O+5…..last line says that based on their likely voter screen in their last poll before election day they predict the Turnout will be essentially same as 2008, D+8 (exact words not me saying this) which compares to 2008’s D+7. Whites will make up 73% of the electorate as opposed to 74% in 2008.

    If that happens then this is the worlds most silent historic turnout ever.

    On a side note…reading about New Jersey, WOW WOW WOW they got walloped by this storm. It is heart breaking to see the devastation. New York will be a least back up its knees late this week and on its feet by early next. New Jersey in some areas may be a very long time. Very sad.

    TO be callous I wonder how much the devastation of Atlantic City and surround areas, Jersey City, etc will impact not just turnout but the overall ability to hold an election?

    • Loach
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hope this is not the beginning of the national polls moving toward the state polls at the end. Needs to be the other way around. Interesting though that their article openly acknowledges that the results hinge on the makeup of the electorate, and references the Pew poll:

      “Other recent polls, such as the Pew Research Center survey released on Monday showing a tied race, have found a narrower, or nonexistent, Democratic identification advantage for 2012. Romney’s prospects, obviously, will increase the more the partisan gap declines. The biggest message from the survey is that even small changes in the electorate’s composition next week could have huge ramifications in a campaign that is dividing the nation so closely.”

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

        Guess we will know in 6 days…but Gallup/Ras their national are close to their state wrap up….the other nationals are matching their states.

        Basically I guess you call this an election where who is projecting or POLLING the correct eventual turnout at the polls? RAS/Gallup with a R+ or the others with the seemingly growing feeling that 2012 will match or exceed 2008 turnout levels?

        Winner take all.

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for pointing out the D+8 model PRA used for the NJ poll. As the turnout will likely be no worse than D+3, this poll is also even or better for Romney.

  13. John
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just noticed that Romney’s lead in RCP just crashed down to 0.2 because a poll by National Journal/Congressional Connection showing Obama +5 nationally was included in the average. It was a small sample poll without explicit party breakout but this statement at the end of the report reveals why the result is what it is:

    “In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).”

    RCP needs to start thinking about its own integrity/reputation. By including every fly-by-night poll in their averages they are degrading the accuracy of their product. If Gallup doesn’t resume polling soontheir latest +5 for Romney will be bumped out of the average and Romney will be down by a couple of points.

  14. Mike
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just in case anyone was wondering what happened the last time OH was competitive.

    The Ohio polls released between 10/20 – 10/26 of 2004 were:
    Kerry +1
    Kerry +4
    Bush +4
    Bush +2
    Kerry +6
    Kerry +2
    Kerry +3

    Avg: Kerry +3.1

    The National polls release between 10/27 to 11/2, election day:
    Bush +1
    Bush +3
    Bush +4
    Bush +2
    Bush +1
    Kerry +4
    Bush +2
    Bush +2
    Bush +3
    Bush +6

    Avg: Bush +2

    You can all ask President Kerry what he thought of those OH polls.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thank you Mike. I would think this alone would stop all the “Oh geee….I don’t know….I hope so….gosh it looks bad…” nail biting. But I know it won’t, sigh.
      ~ Brittany

  15. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    They are trying anything they can to prop Obama up. Nobody actually believes the turnout will be the same as 2008 or even close. None of the respected polls suggest that. Gallup. Rasmussen and Pew find it will be more Republican than Democrat, a good turn around from 2008. But the liberal media need a narrative to keep Obama alive. And they know with Gallup down at this time they can come out with these stupid polls and then say Gallup was just wrong. I just heard Wolf Blitzer on CNN say the images of Obama and Christie will be “POWERFUL” and will help push Obama to reelection. This will be the liberal media narrative until election day. Gallup will be back up soon and Rasmussen is still working. We will know who is right in just 6 days! I sure hope it’s in Romney’s favor. But with all the voting problems I am reading about in Ohio and some of those same problems have happened here in NC so just not sure how it will all shake out in the end! I sure wish the liberal media would STOP making a tragedy into a political narrative. It really makes me sick! I know what they did to Bush and if there was a Republican in there now, they would be going after him nonstop about what a terrible job he was doing!

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Anytime a president can look presidenital it is a good thing for them, especially the week before an election. BUT i am not sure how much this sways last minute voters? We aren’t hearing, like in Katrina, of huge Federal presence in the impacted areas. So far seems to be state stories about how each state is managing.

      In the end it has to be wondered by some evil person like myself….how many people in overwhelming Democrat states like New York and New Jersey won’t be able to nor care to vote in 6 days considering they just lost it all? What will be the impact overall?

      personally i dont buy there are that many undecides. I think most know what way they are leaning….there are very very very few in the ballot booth decision makers

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The good news is….no one watches CNN anymore…so…

  16. John
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It seems hard to believe but I really do sense Obama benefiting from this stupid storm. Maybe I’m paranoid but the majority of polls in must win states the past couple days have been downers and I miss our daily dose of Gallup optimism. Regarding post 14, we are now inside a week from election day and there is only a single Rasmussen poll (pre-storm) that shows Romney with a slight lead in Ohio. I find the arguments and discussions on this blog to be logical and convincing. But at the moment it feels like the whole world is working against us and we are the believers in Santa Claus. Hopefully there will be more uplifting news tomorrow:-(

    • damien
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      well if you get bogus plus 8 and 9 dem samples from that republican stalwarts of new york times,cbs and ppp..you really expect romney to lead?…

  17. Blackcloud
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, the National Journal poll was mentioned above. Maybe it would be instructive to do a post on it and the Pew poll from Monday as an illustration of how much the assumptions used to build the sample determine the results of the poll. Both polls were conducted by the same firm over the same period, yet have dramatically different results because they used different models of the turnout. Pew had no party ID split in its turnout, the NJ poll used 2008 as its turnout model, and had a D+8 split. Result: Pew tied, NJ Obama up 5. In other words, change the model, change the projection. Or maybe it’s really garbage in, garbage out. We’ll know Tuesday.

  18. Benson
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just popped into the Cleveland Plain Dealer and checked the comment threads- pretty confident about election again after seeing the severe distaste for O. 6 more days!

  19. Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Not sure where to put this and it may have already been noted, but bears repeating.

    Early voting in 2008 per Gallup. Of those who planned to vote 21% had voted by Oct 30 and Obama led by 15, 55% to 40%.
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/111673/Interest-High-One-Five-Already-Voted.aspx

    Early voting in 2012 per Gallup. Of those who plan to vote, 15% had already voted by Oct 28 and Romney led by 6, 52% to 46%.
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

    Note – Gallup finds little difference in early voting by gender, race, or household income. Early voting skews slightly toward elderly and those living in the West (since states like OR and WA vote by mail).

    • Blackcloud
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Pew confirms early voting favors Romney so far. They have it at 19% of all voters, same as 2008.

      http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/31/in-deadlocked-race-neither-side-has-ground-game-advantage/

      • Loach
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

        “In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.”

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        I just don’t see how these “little” 25% swings from EV 2008-2012 aren’t effecting the top lines….the implication is that O must win each of these EV states by even more that 2008….I don’t see that happening…

      • John Fisher
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

        displaced — I just think many of these pollsters just are not handling the early voting data very well. Their polling data just does not seem to match what the states have been reporting.

  20. Dorrin82
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think it’s three straight days you’ve been featured on RCP now? You have arrived. 🙂

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