Romney +5 in Virginia, Romney +26 with Independents — Roanoke College

In the latest poll of Virginia from Roanoke College, Mitt Romney leads by 5-points, 49 to 44 with 5% Undecided. Among the Undecided, 27% are leaning towards Romney and 9% towards Obama.  The party ID is D +4 (Dem 35, Rep 31, Ind 30). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Maybe a shade towards the Democrats but at least it is between the past two elections.

Interesting how Roanoke has a similar lead among Independents as Quinnipiac, but a 7-point swing towards Romney.  Did they not get the memo to cheerlead their lungs out for Obama? Oh wait, Roanoke isn’t party to the DC cocktail circuit so they will have to rely on their reputation which makes the play it straight and this is an awful poll for the President.

From the at the cross-tabs:

  • Each side locks down its base with ~95% support
  • Romney leads with Independents by +26 which explains the lead in the poll
  • Obama support among Whites is an awful 33%
  • Obama support among Blacks is 89%, approximately the historical norm for a Democrat but well-off his lofty 2008 levels of ~96%
  • Obama leads by only 1-point among women 48 to 47
  • Romney leads among men 52 to 39
  • Obama job approval is at 44%
  • Third party candidates get 4% of the vote but when pressed to pick Obama or Romney, Obama leads 56 to 37 among these voters
  • Obama is viewed favorably 48 to 46
  • Romney is viewed favorably 49 to 39


  1. Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:47 am | Permalink | Reply

    Heard somewhere that telephone contacts in the campaign say undecided appear to be breaking to Romney 3:1. So if all of that 5% did vote we could expect near 4% to tack on to Romney and 1% to Obama. That 27-9 breakdown also indicates the 3:1 ratio. Have to wonder how many will not vote.

  2. jvnvch
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    Seems about right.

  3. Kent Ostby
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    We keep seeing big leads among indies. If Romney gets +10% on Indies nationwide, it’s going to be a big night and you might just get MN.

  4. stuckinmass
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am not seeing a lot of focus on VA, unlike OH, FL and other states. Does that mean internally the Romney camp is pretty confident about the state?

  5. kenberthiaume
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:01 am | Permalink | Reply

    last roanoke poll was late september and had obama up 8.

    So it’s not like they lead to the right.

  6. Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    VA has been over for 3 weeks. Romney will only lose NoVA by 4-6 percent.

  7. Brad
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    I want these numbers in OH next Monday. Then it’s party time.

  8. Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    This could change some votes in Ohio. .Malkin: The Obama Layoff Bomb
    Last week, Ohio-based auto parts manufacturer Dana Holding Corp. warned employees of potential layoffs amid “looming concern” about the economy. President and CEO Roger Wood specifically mentioned the walloping burden of “increasing taxes on small businesses” and the need to “offset increased costs that are placed on us through new laws and regulations.”

    Case in point: Obamacare. The mandate will cost Dana Holding Corp., which employs some 24,500 workers, “approximately $24 million over the next six years in additional U.S. health care expenses.

    • Guest
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      All across the nation, the CBO, I believe, has estimated that up to 800,000 jobs will be lost. Another 700,000 with the expiration of the Bush tax rates on higher income earners. And then who knows what can happen with all the debt?

  9. Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    If I was there it would scare the heck out of me. Like a shot across the bow as to who you should vote for.

  10. Pete
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    It seems that Suffolk Poll guy was right when he declared the race in VA and pulled out of VA weeks ago.

    • Guest
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink | Reply

      Certainly, a 20-point lead with Independents ought to be enough.

      And unfortunately for Obama, Hurricane Sandy is unlikely to change that enough.

    • John
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:27 am | Permalink | Reply

      On O’Reilly last night the Suffolk pollster (can’t recall his name) said they ceased polling in VA, NC, FL when it became evident the incumbent had plateaued and unable to move above 47% in any poll they had taken in those states. He said that was enough indication to them that Obama could not win those states but caveated at the end that if Obama started drawing 49 consistently in other polls they may go back. That isn’t happening except in a few of the highly stacked polls like CBS/NYT/Quinn and PPP. In fact, it appears Obama is close to the 47% level in just about every battleground state.

      • edtitan77
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink

        Oh the irony if Obama ends up at 47% but also scary for the future. We will always have the specter of being governed by the Left hanging over our heads if only a few more people are suckered by their empty promises.

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

        If the Republican party moves away from social issues and toward economic issues–in emphasis–they will win more votes in future elections. They just have to consistently show the crushing debt burden of blue states–NY, CA, IL–and how fiscal conservative policies are more sustainable and even necessary to maintain some measure of social programs.

  11. William Jefferson
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting that they also employ a “more stringent screen” and Romney’s lead skyrockets to 13 points.

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s good news, because I’m not sure I like this one:

      Who did you vote for in 2008? Obama 48, McCain 48. Might be oversampling McCain voters, because he lost by almost 6 points in 2008.

      • valleyforge
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink

        Responses on who you last voted for are notoriously inaccurate. Usually there’s a winner bias but in this case some people may want to avoid admitting they voted for Obama last time.

      • kenberthiaume
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink

        wow that’s a bit skewed then. There are a lot of republicans who stayed home last time (I hope), but still 6 points is a lot to spot him with amongst people who have voted before.

      • Dan
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink

        less enthusiasm for the prez would cause that 48-48 score, especially with a “more stringent screen”, correct?

      • cbr66
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:56 am | Permalink

        One other item with this poll which should cause some alarm for RR supporters is that only 16% of those polled said they usually vote for Democrats and 37% said they usually vote for Republicans. It is also about a week old which is the case with most of these college polls.

      • kenberthiaume
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:06 am | Permalink

        cbr66, I’m not sure, but that MAY be in regards to people who are “unsure” only. Otherwise it doesn’t make much sense. Most people are pretty partisan for one thing. All the other questions around it are contingent upon a specific answer to the #12, “who would you vote for?”.

  12. Michel Daoud
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    This makes me feel a heck of a lot better regarding Virginia. After all those idiotic polls that came out the last couple days, it scared me.

    Now we just need to shore up Ohio…still feel very uneasy about this state.

    • Guest
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      Unleash Paul Ryan!

      In Wisconsin too. And Minnesota.

  13. KN
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    My one question – could Sandy and for that matter, Chris Christie’s latest praise of Obama swing Virginia back to the blue? I hope not, but wanted to find some opinion…

    • Chris
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink | Reply

      I doubt it. It’s hard to believe Hurricane Sandy is erasing the past 4 years.

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      Feel free to read every thread from yesterday. This was discussed to death.

      • KN
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:25 am | Permalink

        Thanks WJ.

  14. Tom
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Dear Leader is in a boatload of trouble. Mitt-Mentum

  15. NHConservative
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen just put out his monthly Party ID for October. R+1.

      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      Excellent – if I remember correctly that is similar to September – maybe a point less?

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      Why doesn’t he use that in his daily tracking poll then? Or will he starting tomorrow? I thought I read his tracking poll was D+4.

      • UncleFred
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

        Rasmussen uses a 21 day moving average of party ID, calculated every day. I’m relying on memory here, but I think he takes that and adds D+3 to it (not sure and will seek a link to verify). So if the 21 day average is R+1 he’s using a D+2 sample.

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:33 am | Permalink | Reply

      Link? He still has September up on his website, nothing on Twitter. If so, Ras, Pew, and Gallup are in agreement that it’s going to be an ~R+1 electorate.

      • NHConservative
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:52 am | Permalink

        They are tweeting about it…let me see if I can get the actual link.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:41 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’mnot seeing this NHConservative. Care to provide a link?

      • NHConservative
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

        Shoot, it was not an actual confirmation, just a hypothetical with someone posting applying it to a garbage poll that came out today. He did post his National poll today with R 49% and O “47%”.

  16. David Tosaw
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    The Roanoke poll shows Romney winning conservatives 87-9. This number is similar to what Bush received in 2000 & 2004. However, Democrats in 2006 & 2008 were able to peel off 25 to 30 % of the conservative vote in many places. This accounts for their ability to win in some unexpected places (like IN, VA, NC, FL, etc.) It was not just in the presidential race, but also in Senate and House races. Since then, Democrats have gone out of their way to be extremely arrogant and hostile towards conservatives and their values. What Democrats seem to have forgotten is that they were only elected with some conservative support in the first place. I don’t really know what the relative level of Republican turnout will be. However, the conservative turnout is going to be huge and important. In a few days, Team Obama will receive a very painful lesson on this concept.

  17. Tony
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:22 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney is in Virginia all day tomorrow, just to be safe.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:47 am | Permalink | Reply

      Do you know if he will appear with Allen at all?

  18. Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I have done a good bit of work on the early vote in Virginia. As you know there is NO voter registration. I gave Gov Romney the average of the Mc Cain and the Bush vote per district. The result: Obama is ahead by 2000 votes or so. Before you go screaming into your coffee- let´s try to put that into perspective. It was difficult to get the data [ for me at least from Spain] but google took me to a nice Democrat site where a guy had data on Arlington County from 2008. Obama outperformed his final tally by about 7% in the early voting. This would point to a win for Gov Romney by about 6%. Given what I have seen both in Nevada and North Carolina as the votes come in this would NOT surprise me in the least. Everywhere you look in the battleground states there is a swing from about 7% to 13% to the Republican party. What is it? To my simplistic way of thinking it´s just that the Republicans´hearts are in it more this year!!

  19. Wild Bill
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    has anyone heard any info regarding the jobs report thsi Friday? Since the basically cheated the numbers by excluding Cali last time.. will it jump up all else equal? I dont have any confidence that O camp will not be able to somehow cheat it again.. but dont we usually have leaks 2 days before? If umeployement goes UP, especially over 8%.. We are going to see a massive shift in Oh and Iowa towards romney in the polls as the pollers try to protect their pathetically low reputations..

    I dont hope for more americans to be unemployed, but I do hope that the number somewhat reflects the crippling effect this President has had on our economy and companies who aren’t hiring/going out of business.

  20. bks
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Today’s national polls: Obama +1, Obama +1, Obama +1, Tie, Tie (ABC, PPP, Purple Strategies, Rasmussen, Reuters)


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