Release the Kraken: Romney campaign to hit the road with 100 surrogates

There are only 6 days left to campaign and following the Hurricane Sandy pause Team Romney is gearing up for a final push to close out the cycle that would dwarf any prior campaign’s effort.  According to CNN, Team Romney will hit 11-states with all-stars from the GOP’s deep bench, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin:

Mitt Romney and his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, will kick off a four-day tour starting Friday, where they’ll be joined by their wives and 100 surrogates in the final days of the White House race, his campaign announced Wednesday.

The tour starts off with a rally in West Chester, Ohio, the hometown of House Speaker John Boehner. Aside from Boehner, featured guests that day include former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Boehner will depart on his own bus tour in Ohio from Saturday to Monday.

In the four days before Election Day, the surrogates will fan out across eleven battleground states: Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

A campaign source confirmed that Romney will be at the Verizon Center in Manchester, New Hampshire on Monday night, and Kid Rock will perform, as well.

On Wednesday, Romney and Ryan resume the campaign trail after canceling some events due to conditions related to Superstorm Sandy. Romney will travel to Florida for three campaign events, where he’ll appear with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Senate candidate Connie Mack. Ryan, meanwhile, will make stops in Wisconsin.


  1. Bob San Diego
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    “According to CNN, Team Romney will hit 11-states with all-stars from the GOP’s deep bench, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin:”

    Hmmm … North Carolina but no Minnesota.

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      Same thought. But Michigan and PA are there. Of course sending surrogates to NC (or MI/PA) is not the same thing as sending Romney there.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink | Reply


      Do you think there is a ‘November Surprise’ and if so, what impact?

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:09 am | Permalink

        I’m not Keith, but Gingrinch is saying there are more White House e-mails that specifically have the white house ordering no military involvement when the military was actually getting organized to go to Benghazi.

        He says they might come out this week.

      • Freddie
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:15 am | Permalink

        There is an November surprise but it is going for Obama. There is an odd blog that I follow that is almost in code. They have been predicting stuff about Libya and Benghazi/Stevens days in advance. They posted exactly what happened in Libya before anyone.

        They said yesterday and on the 29th that more and more damming stuff would leaked about Benghazi. This morning on Drudge it is all over. I almost fell off my chair. Between now and election day – they will do the slow leak on Obama. It will be just like Carter with Iran but much worse.

        The military and intel people are not happy.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

        whether it happens or not this week the facts remain….Rule #1 For the Commander in Chief you do not throw A) the Military nor B) the CIA under the bus for your mistakes…..they will survive, hunt down the bus, disable it and take it apart piece by piece in front of your eyes and make the world think you did it.

        They do not like being seen as having left a man behind…that it was THEIR call to not go in and not the SEC DEF or CIC that made the call to stand down because “it is not a terrorist attack”

        I predict if Obama wins…and this comes out it will cripple his entire second term before it begins. Think Watergate, Clinton Impeachment, Iran Contra all rolled into one tightly wound pissed GOP controlled House ball.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

        I hope that the damning info comes out before the election. Does us no good if Obama gets re-elected.

    • JR
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      To the Romney campaign: I’m in Charlotte. Please stay away! The GOP has locked down the state and Romney will win easily. We are even about to elect a GOP governor (and one from Charlotte no less which is like lightening striking twice!). And even he ran to the right of his past moderate positions when he was mayor. Dem political scandals abound all across the state.

      Focus your efforts behind the crumbling O firewall up north.

    • jvnvch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:59 am | Permalink | Reply

      Minnesota is a good diversionary tactic for Romney, but the last time it went for the Republican presidential candidate was 1972. The national popular vote that year was Nixon 60.67% to McGovern 37.52%. In Minnesota it was Nixon 51.58%, McGovern 46.07%. Minnesota bleeds blue.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

        Someone here did an analysis of Minnesota and it has been trending more Republican for awhile.

        Romney may not win there, and that may be the last place he tries to use resources, but it’s not as blue as we my remember.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

        Minnesota is one of those states that sometimes seems like it’s within reach of the Republican presidential candidate, but it just always seems to revert to form.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

        MN is a great diversion to get Obama off his game…soften it up for a possible 2nd term re-elect flip

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

        I think if Romney wins the general election this year, he will have a good shot at carrying Minnesota in four years.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

        I don’t understand why Romney doesn’t spend big ad money in MN, MI, PA, ME, and even Oregon. I reckon they have plenty of money available — plus can get more from Romney himself, Adelson, bank credit line, etc. if they need it.

  2. Kramerica
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    If MN goes red then great. I just don’t see the need to go there. It last went to a Republican in 1972. Advertising is more than sufficient.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      Just trying to play head coach here and think about how I would manage resources.

      North Carolina has seemed pretty safe for a while.

  3. Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting that Connie Mack will campaign with Romney in Florida. If Romney is losing Florida, or Romney is unpopular in Florida, Connie Mack wouldn’t be seen anywhere near Romney. Further proof Romney has a solid lead in Florida.

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      With luck Mitt can drag Connie over the finish line. What a terrible campaign he has run!

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:57 am | Permalink

        I wonder if Romney could be so confident that he’s really going to Florida to try and get another Rep senator, not to shore up his own campaign.

      • novahockey
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:06 am | Permalink

        I think that’s part of it. a win + coattails is better than just a win.

      • Freddie
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:17 am | Permalink

        The GOP should have run Allan West against that evil idiot and pretend Gomer Pyle – Bill Nelson. Nelson acts like a good old boy as he goes to see Michael Moore movies. Allan West would have destroyed Bill Nelson. West is too conservative for the RINO GOP.

    • lotmini
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      great point. i think the Romney thoughts are 2 birds with one trip now. Shore up a must win battleground where u r leading and pull some senate seats with u, while your $ opens up new fronts in MN MI PA etc

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:12 am | Permalink | Reply

      Bingo. That’s why he’s in Florida, partly. To try to save Mack.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      good point…how many campaign stops have you seen Obama with any democrat in a battleground…if you have it is kept very quiet

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

        None. They won’t be seen anywhere near him.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am not buying your logic. Romney is in FL for Romney. It’s a bad sign that he is still campaigning there. (I am a huge Romney supporter and expect him to win FL, but wish that he was safe there and could campaign in other states instead.)

  4. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    my fellow sunday morning quarterbacks, as i have said, romney needs to focus on gaining the senate in the last week. he is looking to govern and reform. how can he do it if you have an obstructionist senate… so yes, i think he is going to florida to help mack across the line, likewise nevada, pennsylvania, virginia, wisconsin, ohio… new hampshire might bleed over into massachusetts to help brown… minnesota dem senator will easily coast to victory. so, he is prioritizing as any excellent manager knows. its not enough to elect romney, the senateis critical… montana! north dakota! and hopefully missouri!

    • jeff
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      Im quite nervous about this Sandy thing and its potential to stop Mitts momentum. Any thoughts. I think the media will want to play this out and make Obama to be a hero.

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

        The media will try but it won’t be enough. A few days of lavishly praising the President for doing the bare minimum his job requires won’t make up for four years of the disaster preceding Sandy.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

        Read Keith’s top of the Blog post about HIS PERSONAL LIFE EXPERIENCE right now in NYC….more stories get out like that in the next 48-72 hours as people begin to get hungry, tired, and very very angry. It will not look well for Mr. President

      • NHConservative
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

        He also mentioned there is a lack of FEMA presence….that may blow up on him, especially with Bloomberg. He declined Obama from coming to look at the damages.

      • Mike D.
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

        When the jobs number come out, whether there is improvement or not, we will not hear as much about Sandy.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am really pissed off at Akin for not getting out of the race, but would like to see the Repubs run ads in MO. Could just be pro-Romney ads — on the theory that most Romney voters will support Akin too.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

        I am more pissed that my fellow Missouri supposedly conservative primary voters took the Pit Viper (my pet name for Claire, I unfortunately worked with/around her for a few years) bait and voted for nimrod Akin instead of Brunner. Brunner would have been up 15-20 points on McCaskill by now.

        Akin’s only hope is for those who have stayed quiet or publicly slammed him for his idiocy, will once in the ballot booth color in the oval next to his name. Then emerge and claim they never voted for him

        I knew and worked with Todd for a few years as well. Nice guy but is so insulated to the world (his campaign manager is his wife, his kids are his chief advisors) that he is truly a danger in D.C. I will vote for McCaskill for anything….but I cannot vote for Akin either.

        MO will go large for Romney, republican state senate and house and probably a slew of democrat statewide offices….we are weird like that

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

        i must repost and say NOT vote for McCaskill for anything

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

        Not voting for Akin means that Romney will not be able to implement his agenda on everything from Obamacare to judges to taxes. Harry Reid will control the agenda.

  5. Songandaprayer
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    • Dan
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      is the point that Romney is up in the polls or the dems strength at early voting in PBC? Frankly on the latter it is a local issue and not a concern statewide. fear is a choice.

    • Pete
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:29 pm | Permalink | Reply


    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Pam Beach County along with Dade are two of the democrat strongholds in Florida. While it is troubling the EV/Absentee numbers are not much better than 2008….i am not so much worried about that county as I would be if this was the STATE GOP chairman saying it statewide.

  6. Bob San Diego
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    Gingrinch is also talking about White House involvement with corruption and waste in the solar industry, but it’s hard for me to see how that will resonate with anyone who has been paying attention. I suspect that bullet is already shot.

  7. John
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    A sampling of today’s headlines on the economy:

    Midwest Manufacturing Contracts Again in October –

    UBS to lay off 10,000:

    GM 3Q profits down 14.5% –

    Unemployment in EU reaches a new record high:

    It is hard to imaging that Friday’s jobs report will be very positive.

  8. Brad
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    This looks like a big nothing burger. Both campaigns do this each cycle, so I don’t understand how this is different or special this season.

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama isn’t doing it, as far as I have heard, and it isn’t just because of Sandy. None of the Senate candidates want to be seen with him.

  9. jvnvch
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    Well planned final assault. Romney is a good political strategist.

  10. zang
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Axelrod on TV saying that he will shave his mustache if O loses MN or MI. Also said they may lose the independent vote, but they can win without it.

    Just interesting that O people seem to be out spinning all the time. Seems like a sign of weakness to me.

  11. Bob San Diego
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Axelrod didn’t say he’d shave his mustache if they lost PA, Ohio or the general?

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nice catch.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

        He did include PA.

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

        Oh, okay, good to know – but not OH. Or the general. 😉

  12. Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    On Daily Kos they are saying the unemployment rate will drop to 7.4%. LOL

    • M. White
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t anyone would believe that load of crap at this point because of what happened last month. California not reporting??? They will either have to include California from last month in this report or give a revised report from last month. I seriously doubt the number will 7.4% unless there is a lot of tampering with the numbers. I think so many people would scream foul that they probably won’t try that or I could be wrong, they may try anything at this point. Never say never…they will attempt anything, tampering with numbers regarding unemployment and voting! They will also try to steal this election. I hope it won’t happen. I have said for several weeks now that I am telling myself Obama will win so I won’t be disappointed if he does and will pleasantly surprised if Romney wins. That’s how I keep myself from getting too excited about a big Romney win. It feels like he will win but at this point it’s anybody’s guess not knowing what schemes will be in play especially where it will be close like in Ohio, Va. or Florida and possibly NC. I also think Romney has a chance in PA and MI and will probably win WI with the great ground game Walker’s people have set-up for his recall election. I also think Gingrich is hinting at something that he knows will come out over the weekend over Libya. I also hope that people who are suffering in NYC will speak out about the lowsy job the Feds are doing like they did after Katrina.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

        Fyi, I think that the California under-reporting related to weekly first-time unemployment claims, and that deficit has already been rectified in the subsequent weekly reporting. The monthly jobs and unemployment numbers are contained in a different report.

  13. stuckinmass
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just read on Politico that Romney is eyeing NM too

  14. JimmyB
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just found this site – well i found it about three hours ago and I’ve been reading non stop since. Excellent analysis and even commentary. Nice to find a place that seems to be troll free.

    I sincerely hope that Romney is expanding the map here with this final push. To think of PA or MI turning red next Tuesday almost seems too good to be true. I’m glad I gave up smoking…

    Does anyone think there is hope for any of the MSM to sense the ship is going down and start turning? Could that be a November surprise perhaps?

    Anyway back to reading 🙂

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Welcome, JimmyB. I’ve been reading nonstop since I got here a few weeks ago, too. 🙂 You might be right – what I see is certain MSM reporters/outlets getting religion toward the end and getting realistic about a Romney win. WaPo has made a few small steps in that direction. However, this always happens. They want to at least seem like they know what they’re talking about, so they hedge bets – after being full speed Obama for the four years previous.

  15. zang
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Seems to be a concession they are losing the independents. Only way thy can win is wt huge Dem turnout advantage… Something that Gallup, Ras and Pew do not see.

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Dem turnout would have to be bigger than 2008, since Obama won indies by 8 points. Nobody is seeing that.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

        Be nice if someone interviewing a campaign rep about polls would know that and ask the question.

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

        Sure would!

  16. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    • Pete
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ever notice that the faulty votes are ALWAYS in Obama’s favor?

  17. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:54 pm | Permalink | Reply


  18. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

  19. No Tribe
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Updated schedule appearances:


    Tue/23rd: Florida, Ohio
    Wed/24th: Iowa, Colorado, Nevada
    Thur/25th: Florida, Virginia, Ohio
    Fri/26th: – (DC)
    Sat/27th: New Hampshire
    Sun/28th: – DC
    Mon/29th: Florida, Ohio
    Tue/30th: – (DC)
    Wed/31st: – (DC, New Jersey)
    Thur/1st: Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio
    Fri/2nd: Ohio, Ohio

    Tue/23rd: Nevada, Colorado
    Wed/24th: Nevada, Iowa
    Thur/25th: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
    Fri/26th: Iowa, Ohio
    Sat/27th: Florida
    Sun/28th: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
    Mon/29th: Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin
    Tue/30th: – (Ohio)
    Wed/31st: Florida, Florida, Florida
    Thur/1st: Virginia, Virginia, Virginia
    Fri/2nd: Ohio, Ohio, Wisconsin
    Sat/3rd: Colorado
    Mon/5th: New Hampshire

    Obama is now moving onto tarmac stops starting Thursday. Have you ever seen a more lame final two weeks of campaigning for President as what Obama has pulled down? In fact, the entire month of October. What are they thinking?

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The final PA Susquehanna poll is due out later this week. My guess is R up 4-6? If so, perhaps a brief visit on Sun (PA, OH, WI, MI)?

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

        I’ve got a running conversation with one of the guys from the F&M Pennsylvania poll. He’s been very gracious, and I sense an opportunity to find some stuff out, but I sense I’m getting a little out of my depth. I read his article and he pretty adamantly defends public polls (no surprise) but I’m not sure of the counter arguments.


        Read from the bottom up for chronology. I started with a question about the voter skew. His answer was the 50/37 response.


        I agree that turnout is not likely to be as high as 2008, but that is true for both parties and for independents, I think. Also, we are showing registration here (PA voters must be registered by party one month prior to the election to vote), but the exit polls collect data on party identification which is a bit different. For example, in our just released survey the democrats have a 13 point registration advantage but only a nine point party identification advantage.

        Our approach is based on voters’ self-reported intentions and past behaviors, not on any specific level of turnout. So, in effect, this is based on self-reported levels of excitement.

        Here is something I recently wrote about bias in the public polls that you might be interested in reading.–Not-much-evidence.html

        Best regards,



        On Wed, Oct 31, 2012 at 1:03 PM, wrote:

        The problem is you are projecting a democrat turnout almost as large as 2008.

        Not sure how that’s likely.

        Sure, the loyal dems will come out and vote, but i don’t sense any excitement like there was in 2008.

        Between the lack of excitement on the democratic side and the enthusiasm for Romney (not much for McCain in 2008), I’d expect a turnout percentage closer to 2004 (Dems +3).


        On Oct 31, 2012, at 9:41 AM, Berwood A. Yost wrote:

        > It may be, although in September we saw a slightly larger edge. In Pennsylvania there are about 1.2 million more democrats than republicans, so even with more motivation among republicans they have a lot of ground to make up.
        > Both campaigns have just started advertising again in the state, so who knows how that might affect turnout.


        > On Wed, Oct 31, 2012 at 12:39 PM, wrote:
        > Thanks for your prompt reply.
        > A 6% edge still seems pretty optimistic for the democrats, but I guess you could make a case.


        > On Oct 31, 2012, at 7:28 AM, Berwood A. Yost wrote:
        > > Mr. XXXX:
        > >
        > > The poll does not suggest turnout of 50% democrats to 37% republicans. That is the breakdown of registered voters in the sample which corresponds precisely to the split among republicans and democrats in Pennsylvania.
        > >
        > > The likely voter sample suggests higher proportional turnout among republicans than democrats leading to an estimated six-point advantage among registered democrats.
        > >

      • stuckinmass
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

        The “are the polls biased” question has been addressed here. It isn’t that they are biased, but most polls don’t screen well enough for likely voters. Nobody knows the party turnout on election day, but we do know what it has historically been. So we can see that the party split is out of line with likely turnout. Most pollsters do not weigh for it, nor they do not claim to predict it.

        the problem is when you haven’t screened likely voters well enough, then the polls tend to skew Dem, Not sure why, but probably due to dem constituencies that aren’t reliable voters, like the youth vote.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

        I am not sure if I am correctly understanding today’s WI poll results from Marquette University, but in that poll 100% of the people polled said that they had either voted (10%) or were certain to vote (the other 90%). I think that the correct number based on experience is about 70% — based on what I read somewhere during the past couple days. So here is another example where the likely voter screen was too loose.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

        Bob, Send the guy these two articles.

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “What are they thinking?”


    • Porchlight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thank you so much for these updates!

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      the last few days of a campaign generally do become just touch down, speech, wheels up events. I do not see anything too odd about this.

      basically after reading a Silver column today…as much as I try not to…I cant help but see some truth in what they are saying. Which is the state polls tend to be more predicitve and across the board Obama has his 270 short of some sort of Democrat fall down the stairs turnout that matchs Obama’s first debate performance.

      No one physicially is going to MI/PA/MN which means neither side is TRULY in belief they can flip. Throw some money and surrogates and call it a shot.

      It still boils down to Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, NH and Colorado. Romney needs 4 of the 5 to win basically….we are all BANKING on nearly EVERY POLL in NEARLY every battleground state being wrong. Another oddity buried in all the polls is the weird take away that despite Romney winning many nationals, good state polls here or there, huge independent advantages…the question of who do you THINK will win…those same pollees are almost unanimously saying 50+ to mid to upp 30s% saying OBAMA. So while there is good enthusiasm for Romney there is not a lot of CONFIDENCE he will win.

      Short of polling making some sort of dramatic shift in the next 4 days….I am going to steel myself to the idea of Obama winning re-election by a squeaker and pray that I am pleasantly surprised 6 days from now.

      • PJBRIEN
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

        Nate Silver is a partisan hack. Perhaps one day he will explain how an incumbent can win an election where independents are breaking to the challenger by 10% or greater and Democratic turnout is, at best, on par with the Republicans? For all of his analysis I’ve yet to see him tackle this.

      • Fred S
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

        Obama is consistently below 50% in the national and most state polls. James Carville states that, this late in the game, that should be his final number. My gut tells me that Romney will carry those 4 states in this order of likelihood: VA, CO, OH, NH, IA. I also think he will take WI, with a good shot at PA and MI.

      • Fred S
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

        Oops, I meant to say “those 5 states”

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

        Shane, Romney does not need to win 4 of the 5 states you mention. He only needs to win VA, OH, and NH to reach 270. If he doesn’t win OH, then he needs to win VA and basically 2-3 others from this list: Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, NV, and NH (and PA, MI, MN).

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, thanks for providing this information. Glad to see Romney headed back to Virginia. We must win there. Would like to see quick stops in NV and Iowa as well as Wisconsin. Expect to see Romney and Ryan back in OH on Sunday and Monday next week.

  20. Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup is saying that turnout should be lower than 2008, 2004. Not surprising. Here in Oregon Dem enthusiasm is almost non-existent.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yep. Here in VA it will be. EV looks like a mid-tem so far.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Back in 2008 there was Barack Obama mania here in Oregon. I live in a fairly rural Republican leaning area, but even my small town had an Obama campaign office and there were Obama signs and bumper stickers everywhere. I saw no McCain signs and only a couple bumper stickers. This year, in my area that is reversed. There are Romney/Ryan signs everywhere and tons of R/R bumperstickers too. I haven’t seen any Obama signs and there aren’t Obama volunteers everywhere like in 08′. I think Obama will still win Oregon because of Multnomah and Lane counties, but probably by 4-6% not the 16% blowout he won it by in 2008. I think it is shocking that the last two polls have only shown him at 47%. I think the high number of undecideds are people who supported Obama in 08′ and regret it, but are having a really hard time switching to Romney. I would guess a larger number of undecideds here will ultimately vote for Obama than in other states.

    • zang
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      One concern I would have is if the low turnout comes from unaffiliated voters not showing up.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

        Dems won’t turn out, then non- affiliated voters in that order.

  21. flconservative79
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just wanted to come on here and say that this morning, with great pride and honor, I case my absentee ballot for Mitt Romney and my friend Paul Ryan for President/Vice President in 2012 here in the great state of Florida. Here is to hoping and praying that Ohio goes to R/R next week. If Obama wins reelection I fear we will march so far down the road to European Socialism that the Great American Experiment will have failed. I have to admit that I get scared when I see all these polls in OH showing Obama up. I can’t escape the fact that the Auto Bailout is what is helping Obama in Ohio. I wonder if Romney can score enough I’s and R’s to make up the difference and squeak out a win. At this point, I would take 270 to 269 if it meant Obama lost. Anyone have any updates out of Ohio?

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Last week I cast my FL absentee ballot for Romney Ryan. I was visiting family in Ohio 7-10 days ago and saw very few yard signs for any candidates. I saw a few more for Obama-Biden in my Mom’s upscale neighborhood which was surprising. (My Mom is a very partisan Democrat and has been going back to the Kennedy days and before.)

  22. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    early voted in chicago yesterday (i doublechecked the touchscreen and paper copy). uncontrolled experiment — but it was not as busy as it was in 2008…and not as bouncy hopey changey smilling among the election officers.

    even in chicago — i see NO ONE wearing an Obama shirt/button/bumper sticker on computer. A handful of cars with stickers — and almost as many Romney.

    if enthusiasm is way done in Chicago — how can it be higher elsewhere?

    there was more excitement in boston with dukakis running for president….

    or maybe it’s just my imagination running away from me.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in Chicago about three miles north of downtown (near Depaul University) and have not seen any political yard or window signs this year. Four years ago and eight years ago there was a lot of Democrat energy against the Republicans — mostly anti-Bush and anti-war. Now I don’t see any energy in any direction (but Obama will still win Illinois by a big margin).

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