CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac Survey Narnia, Find Obama Leading

We’re six days out from the finish line so there’s not much time left for the press to get in their final push for their preferred candidate. Lucky for the Left there is the wonderfully incompetent trio of CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac to rush into the fray and magically find polls with Obama winning just close enough that when it flips on election day they can shout “Margin of Error!” and head back into their cocoon.

The economy remains the paramount issue in this election with ~50% saying it is the top priority and ~20% saying it is the #2 priority across all three states polled.  No other topic is even close.  Despite this the lead questions in the survey were “which candidate cares about the needs and problems of people like you?”, “who cares about the middle class?” and “who cares and understands the needs and problems of women in the workplace?”  I’m not making this up. These are straight out of Obama stump speeches. For the uninitiated, polling is as much art as it is science and question order greatly affects responses of those surveyed.  PPP does this in a very biased way all the time which which is among the countless reasons I will never blog them. In the Q-poll, even in their pro-Obama wave of questions, when they get to whether candidate X is a strong leader, Obama still solidly lags Romney polling at ~56% while Romney polls ~64 across the 3 states.

After 9 straight ostensibly pro-Obama questions, they ask about the economy which again is the TOP issue in everyone’s book and happens to be THE issue in every Romney stump speech.  With 9 questions ramping up good feelings about Obama, Romney barely leads on this issue in Florida and Virginia and trails by one in Ohio.  Well done Quinnipiac. Now, if you’ll just survey far more Democrats than have ever shown up at the polls in these state the Death Star may finally be fully operational and Obama can pull out an election that he is almost assuredly losing right now.  On to the states!

Florida: The Lion

  • Obama leads +1 at 48 to 47 with 3% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 5
  • Party ID wasD +7 (Dem 37, Rep 30, Ind 29). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29). In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). Good show Quinnipiac!  In a state with a GOP governor and massive increases in congressional delegations, popular GOP Senator, and strong state house swings to the GOP since 2008, you found Democrat strength equal to 2008 while Republican flight since 2004 continues unabated. You found the Democrat identification advantage in your survey more than doubles the advantage they enjoyed in 2008 despite a nearly net 300,000 swing towards Republicans in voter registrations. Your Florida poll is unassailable…at least in Narnia.
  • Obama job approval +1 at 49/48 … if Quinnipiac surveyed only Dade County and even there I’d double check the numbers

Ohio: The Witch

  • Obama leads +5, 50 – 45 with 4% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 6
  • The party ID was D +8 (Dem 37, Rep 29, Ind 30). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  There is no chance the Democrat turnout advantage will meet Obama’s 2008 best in a generation turnout which we write as D +8 based on the CNN party ID generally used.  This is even though the actual 2008 party ID was really only D +5 making this D +8 that much more implausible. How many statistics on changes in enthusiasm favoring Republicans, unrealistic Democrat demographic assumptions and elimination of Obama’s early vote advantage do you need to see before they start polling an electorate dissimilar to 2008 when their dream candidate fulfilled their liberal inner guilt and healed a nation or whatever BS they were peddling at the time? Quinnipiac is not going to let silly facts get in the way of its mission to buck up the Lefties and turn this contest into a horse-race. One more piece to the puzzle before the Death Star is complete.
  • Obama job approval +3 at 50/47 — Can you imagine what it would be if they surveyed Ohio?

Virginia: The Wardrobe

  • Obama leads by 2, 49 – 47 with 3% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 21
  • The party ID is D +8 (Dem 35, Rep 27, Ind 35). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Who knew the blue wave continues so far South of the DC Beltway?  Certainly not Virginia and certainly not Governor Creigh Deeds. Just because Virginia flipped its state delegation dramatically in favor of Republicans doesn’t mean the voters turned their back on Democrats, it’s just there must have been a good TV rerun of Martin Sheen spouting non-sensical liberal tripe on the Left Wing that distracted Democrats from voting.  Good thing Quinnipiac found these ultra-micro-targeted hidden Democrats only Project Narwhal knows about because otherwise, without those gnomes (Step 1: Call random #s only in Fairfax County, Step 2: ???, Step 3: Obama wins!) I’m not sure we’d have a fully operational Death Star. Come November 6, we’ll see how well those gnomes delivered for this survey of a fantasy electorate.
  • Obama job approval flat at 49/49 — Really?  49% with a D +8 turnout in a state closer to even D/R?  Suuuuuuuure.


  1. Tom
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    You nailed it with the headline, these pollsters are in a fantasy world. I’m going to add to this my own thoughts. They want an RCP average that shows osama in the lead, I know that sounds far out conspiracy theory, but I truly believe it. I’ve heard many democrat analysts on tv mentioning the RCP average when defending an obama victory. Therefore these pollsters are doing whatever it takes to make that average in favor of obama. Those party ID’s are laughable. Continuing to gather all the hard evidence, the objective evidence, and the anecdotal evidence points to a mini-landslide for Romney. Mitt-Mentum

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink | Reply


      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

        You know maybe in another year that would sound like some crazy conspiracy theory, but not this year. I really wish RCP would set the bar higher on which polls they include, I have written them about this numerous times.

    • Johnny Ranger
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Eric K, totally, totally, TOTALLY agree. I’d even be OK if they excluded Ras as to conservative

      • ryno
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

        Ras. turned out to be the most accurate(almost perfect)poll in 2008. And you say they are a conservative leaning poll? The problem is, polls that are considered “conservative leanig” are just being honest with the numbers! Go figure! Didnt Axelrod recently scold Gallup for not using these fantasy numbers that these left leaning polls are using? Face it, Democrats try to manipulate polls, politics, military and jobs numbers and for some reason that considered “OK”, or at least expected. Isnt it about time the adults in this country were running our government?

    • Larry
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tom, if that was the case, they’d include far more polls as Nate Silver does which he then discounts for accuracy based upon their previous polls. He notes that he’s been far more accurate than RCP.

    • Greg
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I know! Even FoxNews is in on the game. They claimed today that the race was even – nationally. I don’t know who they’re talking to. Maybe Obamatons are the only idiots who answer their phones to unknown callers!

    • Veronica
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “that shows osama in the lead”
      Listen, as much as you may dislike Obama, he still is the President and we shouldn’t disrespect any president of the USA by calling them by the name of an Al Qaeda terrorist.

  2. Medicine Man
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    Concerned troll commence!

  3. Benson
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:00 am | Permalink | Reply

    You can tell which poll is the most cooked when MNBC leads with it the next day. Quinnyfake was their beacon of hope today. And they never discuss metrixes and sample sizes within the polls so why not poll at +20?

  4. allthingsgeography1
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:00 am | Permalink | Reply

    Nice to know Obama has Narnia’s electoral votes in the bag on Election Day…lol.

    • lotmini
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:47 am | Permalink | Reply

      word is, RR just bought ad time in Narnia and the indies there are breaking his way there too….landslide includes narnia too…p.s. just heard clinton is headed to narnia thursday

      • cowbob1979
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink


  5. Stoneule
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama would surely win the Telmarine vote….

    • wholefoodsrepublican
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:27 am | Permalink | Reply

      and the Submarine vote (from the 3rd debate)!

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I was thinking Obama would be most popular among the Calormen.

  6. Jeff
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Its like continuing to promise a kid a cookie, but never actually giving it to him. After a while, the kid stops believing he’s going to get the cookie. Even a young kid will figure it out eventually. Why Democrats continue to believe these polls, with heavily cooked sampling, well .. I guess they’ll find out the truth next Tuesday. Hopefully, they’ll be able to get all the sand washed off from having their heads buried for so long.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      for the same reason we keep being told and telling ourselves ALL the polls are wrong and our guy is going to win. It is electile disfunction in which both sides believe what they want to believe.

      Either Romney truly believes they are winning big and are going to run up the score. Or they know they are going to lose and are going out in a blae of glory but movinginto PA/MI/MN.

      Both sides are bi-polar. Obama talks, looks like the underdog but yet is comfortable enought to take 2-3 days off the trail.
      Romney looks, acts, sounds like the winning candidate….yet he is stil hammering VI, FL and is pretty much behind in EVERY poll in Ohio, MI. PA. MN and even into Iowa and NH.

      I cannot get an accurate read on these people.

      • Donald Blackton
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

        exactly. Either Gallup and Rasmussen are dead wrong or the other guys are.

      • trickamsterdam
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

        Obama feels comfortable taking off because the shots on TV of him looking Presidential are better than any campaign stop. In fact, I’m a bit worried about it…Sally may save him from himself (e.g., rating about Romnesia). I always felt Obama was one of the luckiest politicians I’d ever seen when you study his career…think of Howard Deans’ bizarre decision to strip FL and MI of all their delegates in the 2008 primaries, or the Stock Market crash when McCain was leading. I suspect O will get a bounce out of this…that said, this cake is likely baked w/ few undecideds and he may receive less donations from rich and deep blue NYC and NJ, so maybe it’s a push. Also people (not hit by Sally) may have largely moved on from the shock by next Tuesday, and be focused on the economy again. Anyway, I have little doubt Romney will win the popular vote by more than two…if he does the electoral college is almost assuredly won by him too (chances over 99% according to statisticians).

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

        Well said Shane….I read news and articles and it is an up and down roller coaster ride. Tuesday cannot come soon enough….One side is completely wrong..I feel like the analysis done here is on point…but I read some other places today and found everyone agreeing and nodding their heads to the COMPLETELY opposite beat. Anecdotal-ly i feel like EVERYTHING is going Romney and on a lot of levels following logic, IE winning independents should indicate a Romney lead but then…i read…and…AHHHHH 5 more days on this roller coaster,,,Tuesday should be fun!

      • Tom
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

        Electile disfunction. That was great. I am reading way too much commentary about way too many polls and needed the laugh you provided. The Romney camp sounds persuasive to me and the numbers seem to point that way. BUT when I see the gamblers and traders with money on Obama at 2:1 odds, it makes me think I am believing what I want to be true instead of what will actually happen. Are they betting dead voters in Cleveland will tip the election to Obama? Dems will really turn out +5 over Republicans? What gives?

  7. Medicine Man
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not sure what would be worse. Seeing all these types of polls ( ignorance is bliss regarding the modeling) and being surprised on election night ( something similar to the Roberts decision last summer ) or picking these things apart and still losing…..I’m thinking the former..

    • allthingsgeography1
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah, I would rather know what I’m looking at now and not be surprised on Election Night (unless it’s a pleasant surprise). I remember the depression after Kerry lost in 2004…don’t want to repeat that nonsense. Much better informed politico this time around.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:14 am | Permalink

        I tell you, the Roberts reversal was devastating. I guess that is why I’m a realist when it comes to this stuff. I knew in my head (maybe not in my heart) when Dole, and McCain were toast and somewhat Bush 1. It is a defense mechanism.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink

        Funny thing about the ObamaCare decision. I’m generally in favor of universal healthcare at the federal level, although had reservations about the law, namely that it wasn’t bipartisan (which would mean it’s death at some point) and that the individual mandate might be unconstitutional. I was rather surprised as well with the decision by Roberts.

      • Tom
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:21 am | Permalink

        allthingsgeography1, I’m curious why you think it’s fair/just for me to pay for your healthcare? I’ve never heard a good explanation for this.

      • Philanthropic_Extortinist
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:49 am | Permalink

        When it comes to Obamacare, the part that concerned me the most was the fact that the entire act hadn’t been completed. It was ramrodded through without it being finished. Some stipulations cited to be completed at a later date…scary thought! In addition, only free market health care creates innovation. The only reason univerasal healthcare is even remotely feesable for Europe, etc. is the fact that we pioneer health practice and they simply pilfer ideas. Without innovation, universal healthcare becomes stagnant health practice.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

        This makes me wonder if there will be a slew of heart attacks on election night that the Dems blame on Romney, lol.

  8. Tony
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink | Reply


  9. John
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    It would unsurprising if these pollsters using outragious party weightings hold the majority of Obama positions on Intrade. If so they stand to loose millions and will cook the books trying to disuade Romney supporters from showing up on Tuesday.

    • M. White
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:13 am | Permalink | Reply

      I agree…I think they are trying to suppress the vote for Romney. They think if they show these polls enough and they make headlines then Romney supporters will say there is no need to vote because Obama is winning.

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

        The risk there is that Obama supporters might decide that there is no need to vote because Obama is winning.

    • Dogfish
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      The Intrade thing is especially puzzling to me.

      There is no logic in the world that could hold the number where it is now…. even a blind man can see that everything is moving in Romney’s direction and that he is the likely winner.

      I have to conclude that it is being manipulated to show a knowingly false conclusion… if you think about it, some slug like Soros could take huge positions and the resultant loss would not be of concern to him.

      Someone the other day posed that at this point in the 2004 election cycle, Kerry was at 90% on Intrade…. maybe Democrats/Liberals are as slow financially as they are politically.

      • Congress Works For Us
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:50 am | Permalink

        1) Gamblers are not know to be smart with their money.

        2) They are mainly not political people, so they don’t look at internals; they look at the headlines.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think the more plausible explanation is “polling as advertising.” Which is why I keep wondering how much volume these sites are carrying. I mean, the campaigns have spent billions combined, right? So how much is it worth to just “buy” Intrade outright and use it as advertising/false prognostication?

  10. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:10 am | Permalink | Reply

    Either the state polls are wrong or the national polls are wrong. I read this article this morning
    It is very informative. There is no way Romney can be leading in the national polls like he is and not win the election. Most of these state polls are way over sampling Democrats which I still don’t understand at this point when Gallup releases a poll last week about the electoral makeup and it suggests that it will be Republican than Democrat. Most of these state polls are using unrealistic numbers by weighing Democrats so heavily. I don’t think anyone believes Democrats will turn out like they did 2008 and these polls are assuming a much larger Democrat turnout. Either they want to be wrong on election day or they could care less if keeps Obama on the lead up until the election. I tend to trust Gallup and Rasmussen. No one can predict the outcome for Election Day, it’s impossible to know exactly what people are going to do but I do know the Obama campaign as been out saying for weeks now that they are winning early voting but Gallup finds Romney is winning early voting by 52-46. I am still not sure why these polling agencies are weighting democrats so heavily, maybe wishful thinking or Gallup is wrong and I highly doubt it. Rasmussen had Romney up +2 in it’s Ohio poll even with more Democrats in the poll not as much as the others. But if you just look at the crowds and were the momentum is then you have to think that Romney is going to win.

    • Chris
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’m with you…I really, truly don’t know what to think at this point. The numbers simply don’t make any sense. In ’08, at least they consistently showed the same thing (an Obama lead). This year, however, we’re getting Gallup showing Romney hitting 50% or above for 15 straight days (until the tracking was suspended) and a more Republican electorate, yet the state polls are stubbornly within the margin of error with electorates that resemble ’08, DESPITE Romney’s big leads with indies.

      • Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:04 am | Permalink

        Gallup’s RV tracking poll had the race tied or within a point the whole time their LV model projected a 6 or 7 point Romney win. Even if turnout is lower nationwide than 2008 (a big if), the degree of disengagement will vary by state. The swing states being barraged by the campaigns are likely to have comparable or higher turnout which is why the state poll numbers are closer to national RV models than LV screens. This benefits the President.

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      If Romney wins there will a polling shake-up. One cause of skew may be that Democrats are more likely to respond to the surveys. Only 9% of those called finish the survey. Another cause is weak Likely Voter filters. Gallup and Rasmussen both have proven LV screens, and Rasmussen weights by party to eliminate the response bias. Other pollsters bend over backwards to be accurate by weighting cell-phone users but when it comes to LV screens or partisan weights are suddenly willing to let the chips fall where they may.

      • Chris
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:35 am | Permalink

        That’s an excellent point about the likely voter screens. In most polls I’ve seen, Romney has clear leads among those certain to vote, yet overall the samples seem to be of registered voters.

    • Loach
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      Agree that’s a really good article by Trende. And I agree with his conclusions. Either the state polls are wrong or the national ones are. Let’s hope it’s the state polls (I suspect it is, but will of course have nagging doubts until November 6 (or 7).

      • Anonymous Conservative
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

        In 2008, the national polls were spot-on. The average of the national polls was 52.1 to 44.5, compared to the actual results which were 52.9 to 45.6.

        However, the state polls were often wrong by a couple of points. In Indiana, the RCP average was McCain 47.8 Obama 46.4, but Obama won 50.0 to 48.9. That’s a difference of 2.5 points. In Virginia, Obama picked up an extra 1.9 points compared to the RCP average. In Nevada, Obama picked up an extra 6 points. In Iowa, McCain picked up 5.8 points compared to his RCP average. So if one set of polls is wrong, I think it will be the state polls.

  11. Guest
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:15 am | Permalink | Reply

    Nah, not Narnia.

    Mordor, Ithilien, and Mirkwood.

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      Calormen, if you want to stay in the Narnia world.

  12. Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:19 am | Permalink | Reply

    New VA poll Romney and Allen
    Roanoke College Poll:Late deciders push Romney to narrow lead over Obama in Va.; Allen overtakes Kaine in Va. Senate race

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      Need to calculate the DRI splits but a top like of 49-44 with the incumbent at 44% is not “narrow”. The likely voter screen could very well finally be a “fair” DRI for Romney if you believe this is going to be an R+(x) electorate.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:26 am | Permalink


      • Congress Works For Us
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:52 am | Permalink

        The Narnia Virginia poll is D+8; the Roanoke poll is D+4.

        Incidentally, both polls show Romney winning Independents by 20+ points (N: +21, R: +26).

  13. Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:20 am | Permalink | Reply

    Should have posted both up in VA +5

  14. jvnvch
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:23 am | Permalink | Reply

    It’s getting awfully close to election day for this silliness to still be going on. Desperate times call for desperate measures, I suppose.

  15. Tina
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:25 am | Permalink | Reply

    There is a Roanoke poll of VA showing Romney up 5. I have not found the link yet, it was mentioned at another site.

  16. Tina
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    Whoops, sorry, it has already been posted, I did not see #12 and #13.

  17. JR
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    South Park reference. Well done sir.

  18. JAF
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:39 am | Permalink | Reply

    an investment of 16,000 dollars totally buys up the available market on Intrade questions. i used to play on there back in 2008.. you literally can move the numbers with a few hundred dollars buying up shares..

    they just go off of the polls, you will see a huge swing on election day when the numbers start coming in

    • Dogfish
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      JAF… $16,000 moves the market? Wow, I am surprised… I thought the amounts they were handling were much larger.

      I understand much better now how easily this can be manipulated.

      Great info, thanks for sharing

      • Donald
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

        Actually Dogfish, to clarify what JAF said…just a few hundred dollars will “move” the market but $16000 will actually allow you to own every contract. It’s very thinly traded…especially since U.S. citizens can’t legally participate anymore. Soros and his ilk buy contracts for Obama to continue it looking like he is winning. It’s a very very small “campaign donation” to them.

    • margaret
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Since InTrade is now used for propaganda purposes, Soros would find it so easy to manipulate with his pocket change.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

        Soros? If that’s true, I have a Dem friend down the block who would find it so easy to manipulate!

        Soros’ third favorite dog finds that easy to manipulate at that price point.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thank you, someone finally answered my question! If that is even remotely in the ballpark, I am going to go and laugh, and laugh, and laugh in Dem faces for a WEEK after the election. I am going to make it a point to do so long after I stop having fun at it.

  19. valleyforge
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    Quinnipiac had Obama +9 in Florida in mid-September. I’ll take an 8-point improvement.

    In VA they show 3 points movement to Romney since their immediate post-Denver poll, also good news since that was a previous high point for Romney.

    In Ohio they show no movement since one week ago. Which is about what all pollsters show.

    They may skew Democratic, but at least they do so consistently so the movement tells us something.

  20. scott smith
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    Be careful what you say about imaginary voters given the Dems history with them. If they keep it close, November 6 will be Halleween as liberals will rise from the grave and leap tall borders in a single bound to vote. I’d try to lol but thats the real reaaon they don’t want votee i.d.

    • Dogfish
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:15 am | Permalink | Reply

      Scott, I agree.

      The key questions that the Democrats will have in each state that it looks like the have lost will be….’how close is it?’.

      If the margin is very small, they will see an opportunity to create false/fraudulent votes and the dead will rise.

  21. M.White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:22 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am sitting here watching Fox News and Carl Cameron is with Romney in Florida. Cameron decides to use the CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac Survey Narnia, Find Obama Leading polls to describe the race as it stands now. What is wrong with these people, even Fox promoting these stupid polls. WTH! I have increasingly become to even doubt Fox at times especially during the day. Megyn Kelly is probably the most fair and I really like her. But again, why is Fox promoting these stupid polls? Also, the Tampa Bay Times which is a liberal newspaper told the other day that Romney is leading in the all important I-4 corridor 52-46. Also, the reporter stated that long lines are being seen in Republican leaning counties at polling stations. I think Romney has FL, NC, and VA locked up. I live in NC and in the county I live in more Republicans are now registered in my county for the first time in history and this took place in the last month. I do live in a small county but if that ‘s the trend in NC then Romney will win NC. Also, early voting has been heavy here in NC and it’s because of Republicans which is also surprising. I am just not sure if these pollsters are really seeing the undertow in this election. Most of these pollsters are not out and about in these states, they are sitting behind a desk making calls with heavily weighted Democrats. I even Mark Halperin on MSNBC the other day saying the crowds for Romney in Ohio were exceeding Obama’s crowd from 2008, that’s huge coming from a liberal but he has been on the ground and recently he has been slowly starting to say that Romney may win. He tweeted some pictures from Romney events with huge crowds. I think some of these reporters on the ground see the momentum but the hosts of lots of these shows are not on the ground and putting their faith and hope in these stupid polls. On election night they may very surprised and break down in tears. Still not sure what this storm will bring, maybe voters change their minds, just not sure. I hope people are not all of a sudden blinded by this fake compassion Obama is showing. Also, the liberal media is just happy with glee to show all the video and pictures of Gov. Christie and Obama today as they tour NJ. Bloomberg in NYC said for him not to come because he knows without saying it, that is a political photo op. I don’t any president Repub. or Demo. should be visiting these areas this soon. It caused terrible disruption to relief efforts. I think they should wait a few day until things calm down but it is election time!

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:30 am | Permalink | Reply

      Networks need a horse-race to drive up viewership, keep their jobs. I don’t blame them for that. Just be aware of it and adjust accordingly.

      • xfmrman
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

        If FOX, MSNBC, CNN, etc. did not have a close race or Sandy to keep eyes on the tube for the 24hr cycle, how could they sell ad time to the candidates?

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      right or wrong (poll quality) in the journalism world anything with the New York Times’ name is considered Gold Standard. Even at Fox News, in that game you challenge the integrity of the Grey Lady at your own peril.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

        sorry for a double but the other issue is to the news media Chris Christie is what a republican should be….Pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-gay marriage with slight fiscal conservatism that still allows for HUGE government spending.

      • commonlogic
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

        NYT, Gold Standard? Not anymore by a long shot.

  22. brains9308
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    By every measure these numbers are insanely off. In every other poll voter ID is in a virtual dead heat. Even if you do believe their voter ID numbers, they still don’t mesh with the poll results. This poll clearly oversampled DEMs. Romney leads among independents in all three states–in Virginia he is favored by 21 %, yet overall he lags Obama by 2%? Who did the math on this, a 4 year old?

    • Tom
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have seen next to no polls with party ID in a “virtual dead heat.” In fact they are 99% oversampling dems. Rasmussen is even running D+4 on his national numbers. Which poll(s) are you referring to?

  23. Linda Heileman
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply


  24. Tom
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Please people just usen a little common sense. Does anyone, I mean ANYONE, believe that obama is going to have greater support than he had in his historic 2008 election-of course not. At best we are looking at an even split in dems and GOP. So when you see Romney up by 8-15% with Indies you know he is going to win BIG. I predicted one year ago that obama would lose any state that he won by 8% or less in 2008. I didn’t even think Wisconsin, which he won by 14% would also be in play. Romney will win national vote 52-47% with 1% going to “others” and electoral of 330-208.

  25. John
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink | Reply
    Party Affiliation:
    Democrats 41%
    Republicans 36%

    Democrats +5, not far from Quinnipiac’s results.

    • commonlogic
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not close. In 2008 is was only 3%.

      • Biff Malibu
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

        Registered voters does not equal likely voters, especially with the large enthusiasm gap between D’s & R’s.

    • SteveinCH
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      But in 2008, it was D+6 so registration is more republican than it was in 2008. So registration moves 1 point to the Republicans and the electorate moves 4 points to the Democrats? Versus 2008? Are you remotely serious?

      • AdamWA
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

        Moreover that’s registered voters not likely voters. I don’t think many people (except maybe Obama and Axelrod) think that the Democratic electorate is as likely to vote this year as they were in 2008. I don’t see any way they gain share over an election when Republicans were demoralized and stayed home. I think it’s pretty clear the Obama camp is hoping that Romney’s religious beliefs cause a whole bunch of Republicans to stay home and that just doesn’t look like it’s happening. I think Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats this year, but let’s give the Times the benefit of the doubt and say it’s even there. Their poll is still too heavily weighted to Obama enough so to give Romney a victory.
        We’ll see though.

  26. Phillip
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Philanthropic_Extortinist. “In addition, only free market health care creates innovation. The only reason univerasal healthcare is even remotely feesable for Europe, etc. is the fact that we pioneer health practice and they simply pilfer ideas.”
    Pure BS. Let me remind you of a few medical innovations that were “pilfered” by the US from other countries:

    X-Rays, Wilhelm Röntgen, Germany
    Radium, Marie Curie, France
    Heart transplant, Christiaan Barnard, South Africa
    Penicillin (first antibiotic), Alexander Fleming, Scotland
    Aspirin, France, Germany
    Caeserean Section, India, China, Africa
    Angiography, Egas Moniz, Portugal
    etc., etc., etc. Perhaps you should read a little medical history. A little modesty also goes a long way.


    • hugo
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink | Reply


      Those innovations you are listing are ANCIENT HISTORY!! What century are you living in?. Europe probably didn’t even have socialized medicine back then. I believe Philanthropic_Extortionist is referring to current history, like the last 10-20 years!

    • Renfield
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, before Europe became socialist it did indeed make mighty contributions. How about in the past 50 years?

  27. John Smith
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Might as well just say it now: when Obama wins the 2012 Election for POTUS (as he well should); you can all just claim conspiracy and say it was the fault of the “MSM”, the crooked pollsters, the stupid gullible voters (voters be damned), all the millions of fraudulent votes cast for President Obama and no doubt you’ll all turn on Romney too, saying he ran such an awful campaign (which he has).

    • hugo
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      We shall see come election day whether or not you are correct or just engaging in wishful thinking………..

    • josh
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      at least the objection to the dem +8 stuff is based on something scientific and historically based. it might turn out to be wrong in this instance of course, who knows, but it’s based on something real. the people who say that others are engaged in it because it offends their political hopes of what might be, are just wishing it away because they’re doing exactly what they accuse the skeptics of doing.

  28. Goldwaterite
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Clearly, the most recent CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, VA & FL oversampled Dems by +8%, +8% & +7%, respectively. [Now we know the demographics within Narnia :D] The Dems & their media serfs are desperate to maintain the narrative which can be condensed as: popular vote to Romney, electoral vote to Obama. Not likely.
    In the event of a Romney victory, their post-election spin will blame the defeat on:
    1) racism
    2) minority voter suppression
    3) GOP PAC money

    I guarantee it.

  29. Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    And yet another prominent listing on the RCP page! You da man this week, Keith! I know I, for one, find your work to be intelligent and sincere. You’re clearly a partisan, but you have your facts in a row. Truth is truth. And now everyone who watches RCP will have to look it in the eye. Nice job.

  30. Anonymous 977381
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sweet! I love it! Thank you for writing this.

  31. Andrew
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m amazed people are still pushing this “skewed polls” line of argument when almost every pollster I’ve read on this subject has said party ID is the wrong metric to look at. Gallup for instance devoted an entire column last month to debunking this idea.

    The key point Gallup made, which seems to be lost here, is that party ID can’t be reliably compared between polls, let alone with exit polls from 4 or 8 years ago. The results will vary depending on the wording and order of the questions, and people are more likely to associate themselves with a political party after they just voted. So obsessively comparing the party ID in every phone poll to exit poll numbers from 2008 or 2004 and dismissing them when they are a few points different just isn’t a reliable way to analyze a poll’s accuracy.

    The second point they make is that party ID fluctuates with each candidate’s level of support. Somewhat unsurprisingly, if more people responding to a poll support Obama, more of them tend to call themselves Democrats. The party ID is one of the findings of the poll, not a predetermined value. And finally, since most pollsters don’t weight by party ID, what do you suggest they do differently? If they get a poll that is a couple points more Democratic than the 2004 exits, should they redo the poll? What if they get more Democrats the second time too?

    That’s why this idea of “oversampling Democrats,” as though pollsters are deliberately inflating Democratic numbers, is so silly. What mechanism does everyone think they use to do that? Really curious why you think Gallup, Quinnipiac, and other pollsters who have written about party ID issue are wrong and you are right, and how you think these pollsters should modify their approach.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here is what stuckinmass wrote earlier today on another battlegroundwatch discussion topic. “The “are the polls biased” question has been addressed here. It isn’t that they are biased, but most polls don’t screen well enough for likely voters. Nobody knows the party turnout on election day, but we do know what it has historically been. So we can see that the party split is out of line with likely turnout. Most pollsters do not weigh for it, nor they do not claim to predict it. The problem is when you haven’t screened likely voters well enough, then the polls tend to skew Dem, Not sure why, but probably due to dem constituencies that aren’t reliable voters, like the youth vote.”

      • Andrew
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

        If this was really true about likely voter screens being off, then wouldn’t we expect to see it in past elections, with the poll averages consistently skewed a few points more Democratic than the actual results? In 2008, the state polls actually underestimated Obama’s margins in most states. In 2004, you didn’t see polls repeatedly calling states for Kerry that he didn’t win. I don’t see any evidence based on past elections where similar methodologies were used that polls have any kind of systematic Democratic bias, so it would be strange to see it showing up this year for the first time.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here is what I say. Read these two articles.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      just seems weird that nationally, the electorate is less democratic, but in swing states it’s more democratic. Independents might change their “which party to you identify with” but most other people don’t. At least according to Gallup and Rasmussen (who nailed the party ID last election) it’s more republican.

      The response rate on these polls is 10% or so. If Republicans are simply less likely to answer the phone, then that biases the whole poll. It becomes worthless.

      One parameter I like to look at is “who did you vote for last time”. In one surveyUSA poll, the people in Ohio who HAD voted last time voted Obama by 11. He won by 4.5. Now it’s not exactly the same population, maybe all the republicans died or moved out of state since the last election, but it does seem to be giving him some extra juice. That SurveyUSA poll, incidentally, had him up by 3. So in a poll of people who put him up by 11 (along with some new voters), he’s up by 3 this time. That doesn’t sound that encouraging when he won by only 4.5 last time.

    • AdamWA
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What metric do they use to inflate Demo numbers? I don’t know what metric they use, but it’s pretty clear where the bias lies when you can find the raw numbers in a poll and they take 20 response from Republicans and toss them out and create out of thin air about 60 responses for Democrats. I can’t remember what poll I was looking at that did that, but that’s how they do it. If they think the electorate is more democratic than then their sample they assign extra responses (split 95-4-1 usually since that the way the democrats are falling) to the democrats. Likewise they may take away responses from Republicans (split 4-95-1 usually) from that group. It adds up to “OVERSAMPLING” democrats because of the pollsters bias towards what the electorate looks like.

  32. Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why are these pollsters allowed to get by with D+8 sampling even after Gallup came out with a huge survey with small error margin indicating the electorate in 2012 is somewhere between R+1 and R+3?

    What is the point in producing a fantasy like poll such as that? Do they want to drive more republicans to the polls so it winds up R+5 instead? If Gallup is right, these guys are setting themselves up for the biggest disappointment of their lives on election night.

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think you mean to ask why does Gallup getaway with showing an R+3 electorate and a Romney lead in early voting when all other polls and public records indicate something contrary. It may have something to do with the fact that Obama’s administration is going after Gallup for overbilling its clients. Or it may simply be a continuation of Gallup’s legendary inaccuracies.

  33. player
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Regular on RCP.. you have now ARRIVED, Keith!

    • tecumseh75
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Im glad they found him. This is one of my favorite sites now.

  34. MLf
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Christie is PRO-LIFE. I’m not sure of his position on gay marriage but he is 2nd amendment strong (not that I care). Just get the facts right.

  35. tecumseh75
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    When I see polls like this, with false data, that is easily picked apart, I start worrying about election rigging. They are oversampling dems. Why? Even the most biased polls, which is everyone except Gallup and Rasmussen, has to worry about reliability. If their turnout models bomb, they will be out of a job. I believe the figures in this article, are correct. Im just concerned that people who sank with the Titanic, the Sinaloa drug cartel and president of Mexico will end up voting in this election. Know what im saying?

  36. bflat879
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Once upon a time, the theory was that, in the last days the polls would want to look credible. Apparently, Quinnipiac and the New York Times don’t care about credibility. For those who believe Barack Obama is ahead, what has he done to put him ahead? What has Mitt Romney done to put him behind?

  37. Ted
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The previous poster nailed it here. What these leftist pollsters like Quinnipiac and PPP are doing is playing games with the RCP polling averages to try and sway public opinion. It also allows them to make the phony argument that their polls were in line with the RCP averages when in fact it was they who skewed that average in the first place! The real shame is that RCP gives any credibility to polls like this anyway.

    After Obama and his sad sack party get trounced next Tuesday, I look forward to some of these polling companies going bankrupt due to having no credibilty………not that they had any in the first place.

  38. Donna Brubeck
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Forget the polls. You can structure a poll to achieve any result you want. Tweaking the likely voter screen, weighting for party ID, question phrasing, question order, etc. Don’t look to the polls or listen to the pundits. To really understand the state of the race compare campaign strategies, where the principals and surrogates are traveling and where they are spending precious ad dollars. Obama campaign has gone even more profoundly negative in the last few weeks, sending principals and first-tier surrogates to states that were considered a lock for them four weeks ago and as the race winds down is increasing ad buys in states that Obama carried by good margins in 2008. This race isn’t 1980 or 2000. It’s 1992.

    Obama is losing. He and his team know it.

    And if you insist on considering the polls, ask any incumbent President how comfortable they’d feel polling 47-48% nationally one week before the election.

    • Goldwaterite
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      One of the more cogent statements I’ve seen in several days. Dems are campaigning in Pennsylvania & Frankenland (MN). That says a great deal.
      As an amusing diversion 6 days out, here’s Joan Walsh’s [Salon] declaration earlier today:
      “With reliable polls in Ohio and Wisconsin Wednesday showing Obama with solid leads there, Romney has almost no path to victory on Tuesday. Polls today also showed him [Obama] holding smaller leads in the swing states of Virginia, Florida and Nevada, and tied in North Carolina.” As the Church Lady once said: “Now isn’t that special?”

    • Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      Romney is having trouble because every year that goes by, the electorate includes more AA’s and Latinos. This is the GOP’s last chance to win a presidential election.

  39. Brent Reid
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Folks…you say Rasmussen isn’t biased? Really? In 2008, Rasmussen had Ohio TIED…one day before Election Day. Obama won Ohio by 4.6 points. Floridain 2008? Rasmussen had McCain up 1 point the day before Election Day. Final? Obama bt 2 points.

  40. Kyle
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Polls are only useful to tell you whether or not a race is close. I would have been shocked to see McCain win in 2008 after reading the polls in the final week. This year I won’t be shocked to see either candidate win.

  41. Elithium11
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:28 am | Permalink | Reply

    Let me get this straight…when the polls say repubs are up they’re the work of geniuses and when polls say democrats are up they are the work of idiots? Right, that’s groundbreaking. Next…

  42. Posted November 1, 2012 at 10:43 am | Permalink | Reply

    You can tell that they’re “wonderfully incompetent” because the writer disagrees with them. If the writer agreed, they’d be “cutting edge” and “trenchant”

    • Neil
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No. You can tell they’re “wonderfully incompetent” by their likely voter screens. In all three states, they’re assuming 95 percent of registered voters will turn out for the election. That’s not going to happen. Even in the “high participation election” of 2008, only 70 percent of registered voters turned out. The less reliable the likely voter screen, the more the sample skews Democratic.

      None of this means Romney is really in the lead, but it does reveal a fatal flaw in the poll’s methodology.

  43. DAO
    Posted November 1, 2012 at 7:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One reason many polls are varied is because they don’t have the money to do a proper likely voter screen. So, if you can’t afford to make 35,000 calls to get 1,500 responses, you loosen the criteria for likely voter. If you loosen the criteria for likely voter this will be reflected in the percent of voting age population. You have to go into the internals to see if it is even reported.
    Gallup has a %VAP of about 56%
    Which was the 2008 turnout.
    If the polls have %VAP of 70+, then you are really closer to a poll of registered voters

  44. Brett Dunham
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 12:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The election will undoubtedly be close. I assume that all the female commenters on this blog lean toward Romney and that they favor Federal and/or State Government intrusion into all decisions affecting their reproduction decisions. I myself am pro-life but I am not in favor of Federal or State regulations telling me if, when, or under what circumstances I can have an abortion. My physical, emotional, personal, and financial circumstances are my own personal business and I certainly dont need or want any Republican (or any other Senator or Congressman) telling my that if I get raped that “that whole thing will shut down” and I wont get pregnant; and I dont need any Senator telling me what “God intended to happen”.

    This year I’m voting for me. Therefore I’m voting for Obama. First and foremost, I want to control decisions about my body and my health.

    I doubt that any of the polls ask such questions of women. Women who want to go back to the days of being forced to live a life of “barefoot and pregnant” will vote for Romney/Ryan; and they will reap what they sow.

6 Trackbacks

  1. By DMN: THE NEWS TONIGHT WEDNESDAY « dmnewsi on October 31, 2012 at 5:00 pm

    […] Kraushaar, National Journal Swing State Polls Break for the President – Joan Walsh, Salon CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Survey Narnia, Find Obama Up – Keith Backer, BW Obama’s Been a Great President. Yes, Great – Jonathan Chait, […]

  2. By Obama Now Leading in All National Polls - Page 10 on October 31, 2012 at 5:32 pm

    […] […]

  3. […] No doubt Obama is sinking and the 2010 insurgent vote is still out there. And if you think the last round of polls were indicative of an Obama resurgence, suggest you read this insightful post by Bob Krumm […]

  4. […] Watch has a good write-up as […]

  5. By 2010 Does Too Matter | All Things Political Today on November 5, 2012 at 5:15 am

    […] media outlets is so oversampled with Democrats that it’s almost useless. As an example the CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac polls (how’s that for a trifecta of left-leaning organizations) have oversampled Florida by D+7 […]

  6. […]… […]

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