Another Solid Washoe Early Voting Win for Republicans

For the second straight day during the most important time of early voting, Republicans notch another victory expanding on yesterday’s win.  In Tuesday early voting Republicans cast 3700 ballots versus Democrats 3360, a 340 ballot margin. Aggregate ballots cast were 120% the 2012 weekday reflecting the expected week 2 turnout, unlike Monday.

Other than the odd spike on Sunday (the lowest turnout day of 2012), the contest has been largely evenly matched after the typical strong start by the Democrats.  Early voting has been a back and forth battle in Washoe County but during the most important time period Republicans have greatly stepped up their game. The Independent/Other turnout remains an important segment in the 2012 early voting and remains the great unknown whether they will fall to Romney or Obama. The strong reversal in Republican fortunes the last two days show has increased the growth rate of Republican turnout versus Democrat turnout to 3.2% versus the models 2% heading into this week.We are working without our models for now (I’d ask for a Hurricane Sandy exemption) but between the turnout below expectations thus far and the increased growth rate, Republicans are poised to meaningfully turn the tides on Democrats in Washoe early voting this year. The gains of the last two days continue to eat into the Democrats ballot advantage that stands as 1117 ballots.

 

 

66 Comments

  1. Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    Franklin and Marshall — Pennsylvania

    Obama 48
    Romney 44

    5 point swing to Romney since this pollster found Obama up 9 in late September

    http://images.lancasteronline.com/local_old/767700/october_2012_franklin_and_marshall_college_poll_.pdf

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      Correction, 7 point swing. Obama was up 50-39 in September

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:33 am | Permalink | Reply

      Boom? Wow, this is pretty big too. First a solid MI poll now PA?

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      Party affiliation: 40/29/30 without asking indies to “lean”

      I see no D+11 for PA exit polls going back to 2004.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      Check out the DRI:

      50D/37R/12I

      D+13

      And they could only get Obama to a 4 point lead AND couldn’t get him to 50%?

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:39 am | Permalink

        Looking at the DRI, either PA is tied or Romney is up a little. I’ve never seen a DRI in PA like that.

      • William Jefferson
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:40 am | Permalink

        That questions asks what people are “registered.” I believe the standard way pollsters guage party affiliation is to ask “regardless of how you are registered, what do you consider yourself.” That’s where I got my numbers. In any event, it’s a hard thumb on the scales for Obama.

      • Vadim
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:11 am | Permalink

        2008 exit polls had 44/37/18. We would expect 2012 to be better which would imply that Mitt is ahead. Plus the undecided vote will break his way as well….

      • Rick
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:13 am | Permalink

        Obama is barely ahead when you poll PA democrats.

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      Whoa! +16 with Indies!

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:40 am | Permalink

        Brad, I don’t know if that is a good indie sample. There were only 105 indie voters in that sample.

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:41 am | Permalink

        Yeah, caught that after I posted, and 105 before the likely voter screen.

  2. KN
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    This is awesome! Isn’t Washoe the bellwether county for NV? Where are the charts that show comparison to 2008? I’d written off NV a few days ago, but Keith, do you think it’s back in play and if so, you think Romney has a good chance of getting it? Esp. with Dean Heller poised to win the Senate seat…

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      No one has won Nevada statewide without winning Washoe since 1998 when Harry Reid won by around 500 votes STATEWIDE. Of course, there is always the caveat that Clark County is has a greater share of the states population then before… but still…

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:29 am | Permalink

        The only thing we have to worry about here in NV are the Unions SEIU! They were in charge of servicing the voting machines in 2010. They Bus the SEIU to the polls everyday during early voting. There is a huge ground swell here for Romney! Last weekend the Mormons bused in 350 gop women from Ca GOP women’s groups for the weekend to walk to GOTV! We have 2 victory offices here in Henderson and they stay busy on the phones and door knocking too! Our ground game is strong here, but we still have the damn SEIU to contend with. I am just praying we turn back red this time!

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      NV is in play. Clark Co should be good today. However the early voting sites which are mobile move to Democrat friendly areas tomorrow so expect a steep reversal tomorrow but hopefully the GOP can keep it somewhat respectable and rebound strongly Thursday and Friday.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:54 am | Permalink

        For clarification, are the sites on Thursday and Friday friendly to the Democrats like they will be on Wednesday?

  3. Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    The Democrats statewide lead on day 10 (Monday) actually decreased from the previous day. With Washoe hopefully trending towards the GOP, it will be interesting to see if the Democrats statewide lead decreases further, or at least is about stalled.

    My take here: http://politicalhat.com/?p=402

    • Dean
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      Awesome work.

  4. AC
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    When is Romney going to run his 30-minute infomercial on network TV?

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      At this rate, look for it in California.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:49 am | Permalink

        I am assuming that it will run nationwide, but maybe it will only run in the swing states.

    • wmart
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      Has it been confirmed that he is actually doing one? i thought it was proposed, and then the Romney/Ryan campaign shot the idea down.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:52 am | Permalink

        Yeah, maybe they ditched it. If so, I think that’s a big mistake. Romney needs to pull out all the stops, take out a credit line, spend his own fortune, etc. He and all of us will feel like crap if he ends up losing this election by one state.

  5. JN
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink | Reply

    Keith you sure democrats have a 1117 lead on the 28 it was like 428 then yesterday GOP plus 100 we maybe tied or up in washoe without inde

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      there are differences in the way #s are counted. I only focus on “in person” early voting and not absentees.

  6. Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:47 am | Permalink | Reply

    Notice the upward movement on Washoe that started on the 28th. October 28, 1980 was the Carter-Reagan debate. There’s always something about that date late in the election season. Then we get these polls out of MI and PA that are incredibly encouraging for Romney. It’s a good night 🙂

  7. JN
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    My bad looked at that one day spike you are right good job man love your site

  8. Blackcloud
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Franklin and Marshall is actually O 49 – 45 R likely voters. 48-44 is registered voters.

  9. jm
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    Does anyone have Clark county #s?

    • JN
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      been waiting for clark also

    • nvClark
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      Clark county were pretty bad today. Rep 13014 Dem 10097 Other 6029, percentage of total vote trendlines diverged almost (but not quite) as much as they converged yesterday.

      • NS
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:30 am | Permalink

        Why you say 3k plus is bad. Was it supposed to be a big republican day today?

      • Jan
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:45 am | Permalink

        Why would it be pretty bad? They follow the trend set out and the daily lead is much smaller than the projection. Wouldn’t say it was all that bad..

      • nvClark
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:52 am | Permalink

        I guess just bad based on my hopes, I was almost hoping their trendlines would cross today. Shows how good I am at predictions. hehe 🙂

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      Just got the same numbers as nvClark (fixed Rep & Dem swap) and to me it was a very disappointing day indeed. For the first time Rep total was less than in 2008 (10,097 vs 10,629). Some consolation in that Dem was also less than ’08, by even a greater amount (13,014 vs 15,370). However, Dem ballot count dropped only 7.8% from yesterday, and the Rep ballot count dropped a whopping 19.2%.Dems increased their ballot lead from 47,300 to 50,217. Mama said there’d be days like this.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:34 am | Permalink

        Please remember that all those Dems that are voting are not all voting obama. Only the SEIU people! We had between 6-10k people at the rally last week and the library was on the premises and a lot of people were holding places in line while people went to vote, until we could get in to see Romney/Ryan.

  10. billyboy
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    do you mean 13014 dems and 10097 reps?

    • nvClark
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:49 am | Permalink | Reply

      yep, I did mean that, sorry, I’m drinking atm.

  11. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:46 am | Permalink | Reply

    Again, the “other” voters are the key if you’re interested in early voting. If they are going heavily one way or the other, that shifts the numbers.

    • Jan
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      Randomly looking at a recent poll Romney’s trend under independents doesn’t seem very off from other polls nationwide:

      “Romney was edging out Obama among independents by five points in August before the two parties’ nominating conventions. He expanded his lead to eight points (47-39) after the first debate. The new poll shows Romney with an 18-point lead over Obama among independent voters, or 52 percent to 34 percent.” (SurveyUSA…)

      If that holds to be true, narrowing margins during early voting and a better performance on november 6th bring Nevada certainly within reach I’d say.

  12. AC
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    The jobs report number released on Friday morning is going to be a huge event. I hope and pray that the unemployment rate goes up to 8.0% or higher. If Romney wins, the economy is going to explode. I know that I will open up my wallet.

    • Mike
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      That is an awful thing to hope for! We all here want Romney to win, but hoping to see more of our fellow Americans being unemployed is cruel…one might say almost trollish.

      • nvClark
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:13 am | Permalink

        I don’t really agree with his sentiment per se but what is the number now? like 7.8 or 7.9%, hoping that the published number will go up a tenth of a percent in order to elect someone that he clearly thinks will ultimately rectify the problem and ultimately bring the number permanently down hardly demonstrates the insensitivity that you are accusing him of. He could even argue that you are being pennywise and pound foolish in that by hoping the number stays down you might give Obama cover which in a close election might allow him to win and continue what presumably you think (or else why would you be here) are the disasterous economic policies that have at least exacerbated the unemployment problem. Ease up dude. I don’t think AC is wishing ill on anyone except Obama.

      • zang
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:15 am | Permalink

        No. Just hoping the number reflects the reality rather than have the number go down from people being so despondent, they do not even look for work

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:16 am | Permalink

        Uhhh, no. The last job report was bogus. The newest one will correct the inflated job creation figures. Plus, in general the only reason that the unemployment number has been decreasing during the past couple years is that people 1) have stopped looking for work, 2) have taken part-time jobs when they want full-time jobs, 3) have settled for jobs for which they are over-qualified, and 4) have applied for Social Security Disability as a way to pay the bills.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:00 am | Permalink

        “Uhhh, no. The last job report was bogus. The newest one will correct the inflated job creation figures. ”

        I have an expectation level of zero this will happen.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:39 am | Permalink

        Bob in San Diego: Want to make a gentleman’s bet on this? I bet that last month’s employment figures will be revised down.

      • bsmith
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:06 am | Permalink

        Eventually, after enough people give up looking for work, early retire, go on disability or stoop to McDonald’s, Obama will get us to below 5%. Who are these people that would vote based on 7.7 or 8 as some kind of meaningful #?

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

        There is nothing wrong with hoping for the reality….the people are ALREADY out of work its simply creative accounting to include or not…

  13. AC
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks Zang!

  14. zang
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    Republicans won the nv early vote today (statewide) per Ralston. Crushing margins from rural areas. http://ralstonreports.com/blog/day-10-republicans-have-most-robust-day-yet-clark-still-trail-48000-voters#.UJDSNJG9KSN

  15. Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    Here is my STATEWIDE approximation. I had to extrapolate the non Clark/ Washoe numbers from Tuesday as I couldn´t find them. Total vote statewide until Tuesday night including absentee ballots: 527253. Democrats: 233641. Rep: 197962. Others: 95650. 44.31% for Dems as against 37.5% for the Reps. I see the same pattern in early voting when I look at North Carolina and Virginia. Obama goes off at a great gallop and the Reps cut into his lead the closer you get to poll day. Governor Romney will take N.C. by about 8% in my opinion Virginia looked a little bit of a toss up a couple of days ago but I have seen a big slowdown in votes in Obama counties and a pickup in votes in Romney counties [ a bit like Nevada] I am now predicting a Romney win by 3% in Virginia. You may [ or may not!!] be interested in my view on the registration numbers and early votes in Ohio?. I am aware of the tag that just comes from the last primary you voted in etc. That´s all fine and dandy. What if I said to you that there was a very strong correlation between early turnout as a % of early turnout four years ago and the degree of the swing in registrations to Republicans per county? It is early days yet and I am waiting for that excellent site by the United States Election Project to update but the first signs in Ohio are VERY favourable to Gov. Romney.
    Ok- – I am a left leaning [ in Usa terms anyhow!!] Irishman living in Spain. I am right leaning on fiscal issues. I love politics and find the USA elections fascinating. I feel Gov Romney will just fail in Nevada but NOT by much- it could be miles closer than people are thinking. I threw in that personal stuff to show I am not biased in favour of one candidate over the other.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      I hope that you are right as regards NC and VA. Assuming that Romney wins FL, he will need just need OH and one other state; or WI, CO, and one other state. Thanks for your input.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:05 am | Permalink

        I have had a VERY close look at Ohio. I am predicting an 8% swing to the Republicans for a win for Gov Romney of about 3.5%. I won´t bore people with my methods in Ohio. Suffice to say its about eagerness to vote per county plus takeup of early vote option vis a vis 4 years ago. I will have a decent shot at saying how the early vote WENT by about Sunday night. Of course, the Republicans will win big on the day. It´s the same pattern everywhere I look—– Romney voters cutting into the lead and or taking the lead as we go forward . It´s as if Obama were using up his BEST prospects early or something of that nature

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:52 am | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for the interesting post. Would like to play with the NV state wide numbers. My state wide source, http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html, has the same %D and %R, but lower ballot counts through Tue 10/30. Can you post a link to the NV state wide numbers you are using? What is it; about 5pm there now?

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nevermind the request for the link, I found the data. For early voting only through 10/30 it appears Clark has contributed 71% of the ballots and the rest of the state 29%. Dems lead Reps 48% to 33% in Clark, and trail Reps in the rest of the state 36% to 46%. In Clark Dems have a 50,217 ballot advantage. In the rest of the state they trail by 12,286 ballots, giving the Dem’s a 37,931 overall statewide advantage. It would be interesting to know how that compares with ’08, but I do not. However FWIW, I do know in ’08 that at this point in Clark the Dems advantage was about 65k, or 15k greater than it is today.

      • JGS
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

        Here’s what I see, through yesterday.

        http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500

        Statewide, and combining results of early voting and absentee voting, a total of 235,514 D ballots have been returned, vs. a total of 200,678 R ballots, for a difference of 34,836. A total of 96,872 “Other” (independent) ballots have been returned, and if NV polling data suggesting that Romney is getting 60% of independents is at all accurate, it would stand to reason that he would have 19,374 more votes from those “Other” ballots (20% of 96,872) than Obama, thereby narrowing the margin further to 15,462. If Romney gets 10% of D ballots, and Obama gets 5% of R ballots (neither outside the realm of possibility), that would mean that Romney gets an additional 23,551 votes from the D ballots, Obama gets an additional 10,034 votes from the R ballots, for a net difference in favor of Romney of an additional 13,517 votes, thereby further narrowing the margin (on these assumptions) from 15,462 down to 1,945. That puts a lot of pressure on the next few days of early voting and absentee ballots, as well as turnout of R/D/I voters on election day.

      • rcl_in_va
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

        Yep. all very reasonable. I think Obama coming to NV tomorrow says a lot. It’s very close.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Even better yet!! I noticed at http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2503 (Week 2 Early Voting Turnout) that many counties have blank entries for yesterday 10/30. Most of these are very strongly Rep (2x to 3X Dem). The week two totals on the link you provided (thanks) are also absent these ballots. FWIW could be about another +1,500 Rep.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Another look and the blanks were filled in at 11:45am (20 minutes ago NV time).

  16. Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Florida is interesting. Dem supporters are crowing but it´s a little early. I would like to see how voting goes today, tomorrow and Friday

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      I hope that Romney has no problems in FL. We are all expecting him to win that state.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:23 am | Permalink

        I had a closer look at Florida. If early voting follows a similar pattern— Dems jumping out of gate and Reps getting going a few days later Romney should win handily. Why do I say that? Because Dems in early voting are just bettering their statewide registration by a tenth of a percent or so vis a vis the Reps. Once you know a bit about early voting patterns it DOESN´T look like good news for Obama.

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