Strong Monday Early Voting for GOP in Washoe and Clark Counties

Washoe County (thanks to Paul8148 for the data)

A Washoe County win for the GOP casting 2859 ballots versus 2705 for Democrats achieving a net 164 ballot gain. This is huge for the GOP as they needed to reverse the slide in Washoe and they did so with gusto. The overall turnout was below our expectations but that is more concerning for Democrats as questions regarding voter enthusiasm have continued to creep into their early vote results.

Clark County (thanks to vnClark for the data)

The gap in all-important Clark County narrowed dramatically on Monday with Democrats casting 14,113 ballots and Republicans casting Republicans 12,492 — by far the best comparative for Republicans in 2008 or 2008. This performance compressed the % contribution to 42.8% for Democrats and 37.9% for Republicans.  The two day move for Republicans is fantastic news for Team Nevada and bodes well during this big final week of early voting. The turnout was below our model’s expectation but the steep climb from Republicans would give a strong boost to expected growth that we will update after Tuesday’s numbers.

Charts expected later.

19 Comments

  1. mchlgregg
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    Reblogged this on Michael Gregg.

  2. Tom
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:38 am | Permalink | Reply

    These are fantastic numbers for the GOP. Mitt-Mentum

  3. Vadim
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    Look at AB numbers out of PA!!!

    http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/

  4. rcl_in_va
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    Reblogged Clark County Sumday Early Voting Keeps It Interesting

    The tide seems to be turning! Yesterday’s (10/29) Clark County numbers were DEMs 14,113, REPs 12,492 and OTHER 6,352. This is the second day in a row the DEMS have posted a lower ballot count than in ’08 by -945 (+25.5% compared with yesterday). The REPs however increased their ballot count over ’08 by +2,283 (+51% compared with yesterday). At its peak the DEMs ballot count compared with ’08 was +16,760 and is now fallen to +14,264. Over the same period the REPs continued to gain from 23,569 to 26,720.

    Bottom line, the DEMs were up by 59,756 at this point in ’08 and are up only 47,300 now. DEMs are still increasing their lead, but now at a vastly slower pace than ’08. The REPs were only out polled by 1,621 ballots yesterday, and it is unlikely, but not inconceivable, they may actually out poll the DEMs in one or more of the final four early voting days.

    This trend, if it continues, would definitely be the REPs friend.

  5. rcl_in_va
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:47 am | Permalink | Reply

    Reblogged Clark County Sumday Early Voting Keeps It Interesting

    An interesting projection. In Clark County over the final 4 days of ’08 early voting the DEMs increased their ballot count total by 54.9%, REPs, by 69.8% and other by 72.0%. If the final four days this year show the same performance the final early vote count would be DEMs 225,016, REPs 166,318, Other 95,340, Total = 486,675. The final Clatk County DEM lead would be 58,698 ballots (that’s less than it is today folks). Additionally the DEMs have been falling behind ’08 the past two days and REPs outperforming ’08. Maybe the difference will drop to the 40k ballots Keith posted earlier as a target that would introduce the possibility of a state wide REP win. Lots of OTHER ballots too. Wonder how they will go?

  6. JGS
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    There’s a conflict between posts 4 and 5, post 4 says that the Clark County D lead at present is 47,300. Post 5 says that a final D lead of 58,698 would be “less than it is today.” Which is true?

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks, good catch JGS. The Clark County D present lead is 47,300. The projection shows it would grow to 58,698 by end of early voting given same D ballot increase % over the next 4 days as in ’08. The D lead after Monday in ’08 was 59,756. I should have said the final projected early voting D ballot lead is less than the D lead was after only Monday in ’08 (with four days to go). The final D lead in ’08 was 81,965, so if the projection is correct, the final ’12 D lead would be 23,267 fewer ballots than ’08. Hopefully Team Nevada will outperform this.

  7. John
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    Isn’t some of this trend expected due to the moving around of early voting locations we learned about in a posting last week? That posting suggested early voting sites would move to more Rep friendly areas this week and if that’s true an upturn in Rep and downturn in Dem would be expected, right? If location of the polling locations is a factor it must also be compared to 2008 for consistency. Does anyone know where the polling locations were in 2008 and how it compares to this year?

  8. kenberthiaume
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    what were the totals last year vs. this year across the whole state? McCain lost by what, 13.5%? So it’s a big hole to climb out of. HOpefully independents swing over, but I’ve heard many Hispanics register as independents. Also there are something like 5% of the state is registered as members of the “constitution party” or “independence party” or some such. How will they vote? Or will they not vote at all?

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not a lot of total votes in Nevada. Obama won by 120,000 votes. So a gain of 30,000-40,000 is sizeable.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 1:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It is a big hole. According to an earlier post by Keith in ’08 DEM’s won Clark County by 124k votes, and the state by 121k votes. Essentially D’s and R’s fought to a draw in the rest of the state, and Clark county provided the entire margin of victory. If the R’s improve their state wide performance they may still lose to the D’s in Clark, but win in the rest of the state. Clark County was 67% of the state’s total votes in ’08 so improvement by R’s there is very critical. If the hole is too deep in Clark, it would be hard for the rest of the state (only 33% of the vote) to fill it. Washoe County has a lot of votes and that’s why Keith has it on his radar too. Maybe the hole is too deep in NV, but it would be fun to watch a comeback. RCP still has NV a toss up. FiveThirtyEight shows D win probability 80%.

  9. zang
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama returns to Nevada on Thursday, according to this: http://www.lasvegasnvblog.com/2012/10/tickets-available-for-obamas-north-las-vegas-rally-on-thursday/

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 1:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow! Must be still game on in NV!

  10. Posted October 30, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think all of you should keep in mind Nevada is a state not only consisting of Clark county. I just looked at the STATEWIDE NUMBERS from the Secretary of state and 483,873 voters have voted. Using those numbers provided by party breakdow ,if Romney won 95% of Republicans, 10% of Dems, and 60% of Indies he would lead 245,773 to 238,100 which is a 7,673 vote lead. Even if the Indy vote dropped to 55% he would have a slight lead. Keep focused on the statewide numbers as they show Nevada is still very winnable by Romney.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      that is awesome, can you post a link? I can’t find it on their site.

      • JGS
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

        Try this:

        http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500

        This shows that, through yesterday, statewide, Democrats were only up by 34,476 votes, with a total of 86,841 “other” (independents) having voted. If Romney wins 60% of the independents, that would give him 52,105 of those independents vs. 34,736 for the Democrats which would tighten the margin down to 17,107 statewide. And, if as you say Romney got 95% of the R voters and 10% of the D voters, that would tighten things further by an additional 12,511 votes (21,575 = 10% of D early votes gained by Romney, less 9,064 = 5% of R early votes lost to Obama), leaving a paltry margin of only 4,596. There’s a lot of speculation and guesswork built in here obviously, but NV may be in play particularly if Romney does well in the last several days of early voting.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, quite winnable! Can’t wait for tonight’s Clark EV numbers.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      From Day 9 to Day 10 of the total statewide vote, the Democrats raw adbantage in voters SHRANK from ~36K to ~34K. This is VERY good news

  11. Tone Loc
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Finally! Gov. Brian Sandoval in new spot running in Nevada:

    http://www.mittromney.com/forms/mitt-romney-nevada

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