Obama Ads Going Up in Michigan

Expanding the map … which is of course a sign of weakness in the Romney campaign according to Jim Messina. The final tweet below by Rick Wiley is important because look at what’s happening: Obama playing nothing but defense looking to hold FRINGE Battlegrounds while Romney is on nothing but offense. If you can’t tell which way this election is likely to fall, you’re not playing close attention:

From Mark Halperin:

Both sides have enough money for these end-game ad forays. The real issues remain candidate time/visits, the psy-ops involved here, and the belief of some Republicans that a combination of Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could surprise on Election Day.

113 Comments

  1. Brian
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    • Pete
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nice.

    • Benson
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      well said Good Good

    • kyle
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      lol

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      We need a rec button, haha.

  2. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What are people’s thought about the rumor that the hurricane will help O? My thought is it would be the other way around, but can anyone say?

    • Benson
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It helps the media distract from Libya. Plus it gives them a positive meme about obama instead of what the should be focusing on- the polls that have turned against him.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i went to lunch this afternoon and CNN had Chris Christie giving a presser.

    • wmart
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I hate it, but the storm is great for Obama. Anytime the President gets to look “Presidential” and gets such glowing press a week out from an election it is good for him.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

        Please – how has he looked Presidential? Christie looks Presidential not Obama.

      • Brian
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

        The very fact that it’s being DISCUSSED that the President gets a CHANCE to LOOK PRESIDENTIAL is terrible for Obama. He’s had four years to look Presidential. He has failed. And he’s not doing anything now, he’s sitting in the White House, almost assuredly ANGRY that he has to do his job instead of stumping in front of braindead college schmucks. One token appearence in deep blue New Jersey isn’t going to sway anybody.

      • Pete
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

        The next time Zero looks presidential will be the first time.

      • Guest
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:10 am | Permalink

        You can’t get more Presidential than being the incumbent President… 0_o

    • lotmini
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      the only thing the storm will do is keep away some early voters. It could indirectly freeze the race but that is good for Romney too. By Thursday, both sides will be full speed ahead and panic will reside all over the msm as time has all but run out and RR are still pulling ahead. Dont fear fallout from this storm. It will have no meaningful pull on the race unless obama planned an october surprise this week. In which case, he will have to wait til friday/saturday.

    • stephanie
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Rumor has it that media and some dems are pressing O to push the Election day back, i know its impossible for him to change that and the constitution, however with O he has no regards to law nor constitution, so dont know if he would attempt to do an executive order to achieve this. Also heard rumor that due to Virginia had to close down early voting booths due to Sandy, O might try to extend the early voting day through election day. If these all came true, how and if this will affect Romneys momentum?

      • Brian
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

        It’s a nonstarter. He can’t push Election Day back, and he can’t extend early voting. Any attempt to do so will terminate his Presidency. People are already poised to vote him out; any shenanigans like this would simply create a tidal wave.

        It’s null and void.

      • edtitan77
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

        Lots of these media types think NYC is the center of the world. They wouldn’t dare move the date.

        We voted during a Civil War the show will go on.

      • cbr66
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

        Moving the election back would help Romney. He is the one behind. There is no way they move the election back. If they do I will admit that they are losing.

      • valleyforge
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

        Elections are run by the states. Only states with Democratic governors would even consider moving it. Of the battlegrounds the only ones affected by the storm with D governors are NH and NC, and they are only marginally affected, plus they have huge R majorities in their legislatures meaning it would probably provoke a local political crisis.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tough to tell the impact. Which means it probably doesn’t matter.

  3. DAMIEN
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    you know this is only cause ohio is weak for romney….ya ok

  4. lotmini
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Halerpin made a good point earlier. If Romney ran an ad in NY, no one would care and Obama would not respond. You only respond if its a threat.

    • DAMIEN
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      if romney camp had sense and werent god awful…they would be in oregon..

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

        No, Oregon is not needed. Romney needs to stay in NFC NORTH .

      • wmart
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

        Oregon votes by mail. Nothing can be done about Oregon now.

      • Ryan
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

        Damien is unaware of the Oregon voting process and then calls romneys camp god awful at political strategy. Nice one bro

      • lotmini
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

        if OR is close on election day, RR will win by 7 points in pop vote and get over 300 college votes. They dont need OR and they know that.

      • nvClark
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

        It’s not true that absolutely nothing could be done in Oregon, as of yesterday only 25% of ballots had been returned.
        http://oregonvotes.org/elections/doc/history/nov62012/Ballot_Return_Wksht_G12.pdf

      • edtitan77
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        Oregon is mail in only interesting to note the Dept of Elections there has tied returns by party thus far.

        Folks we could be looking at a landslide

        https://mobile.twitter.com/oregonelections/status/263320102622097408

      • nvClark
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

        Yes but as I read it the returns are tied by percentages (28% each), however the percentages are in reference to the total eligible voter pool for each party. So since there are more registered Dems 28% of their eligible voter pool is significantly larger than the 28% of the republican eligible voter pool. In other words the number of actual ballots returned are not tied.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

        Portland comes in last in Oregon for the tally.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

        That’s okay; I’m voting R in Oregon as soon as my stamps arrive *sighs*. There was finally some polling here released today that showed Obama +6 and +7 in two separate polls. Oregon is certainly legitimate “battleground” territory this year, even if a fringe battleground. This means that Romney should be slaughtering Obama in other areas.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What about CT? Last poll I saw there was O +6 and that was 3 weeks ago or so.

      • lotmini
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

        same as OR…if its close in CT, RR has a landslide every where

    • edtitan77
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It was a great point. The Obama admin can spin it all they like but they wouldn’t spend money if Romney goes into say New York.

      Conversely nothing is preventing Obama from going into say Arizona and testing Romneys strength there. The fact they haven’t yet speaks volumes.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

        And Montana…. that state has been pulling left hard lately, but I haven’t seen any Prez polls there.

      • stephanie
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

        Little confused as to why O even spends money in CA on ad buys?

      • lotmini
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

        the race is being played out on obama territory. RR will win all Mccain states, IN was surrendered by team o before it got started, RR has pushed O out of NC, Fl, VA as a large firewall. Then the firewall was NH, CO, IO, OH, etc…RR leads or has created ties there and has pushed into PA and MN and MI.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        Or the fact that they pulled back in NC. Presidents that do not expand the map have never won re-election under normal circumstances.

      • Jeff
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

        I’m in northern Virginia. I can assure you .. Obama has NOT pulled out of here. Ads fly and mail comes at the same pace daily. If one went by signs in the yard only though, Romney is doing VERY WELL so far…

    • Brad
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Restore our Future is running ads in Portland. I live in the area and saw them last night on NBC during the 8-10 pm hours.

      • PJBRIEN
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

        Jeff, I’m in Loudoun and if the race was won by tearing down Romney signs the Lib’s would be way ahead. 🙂 It is comical to watch the signs come and go near major intersections each day. I agree Obama is working this area hard but still think the R’s will pull this out by 4-5 points on ED. My wife will be going red for the first time!! I told her to be careful she doesn’t pull blue out of habit. (She wrote in HRC in 08)

  5. lotmini
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    remember 08 the talk of MT, ND being in play late with maybe GA and AZ. that was because O was about to wipe Mccain off the map. Guess what it means now that its MN, MI, PA, and maybe OR, CT….

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You hit it right on the nose. Look where they are going, and you get an idea of what is going on. If we are talking about MI, PA, OR, MN this late, it means a 52-48 election or thereabouts for R.

      • lotmini
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

        52-48 today….52.5-47.5 in a few days…maybe as hi as 53-47 by election day

  6. Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So an Obama aide says Romney is playing in MI. Now Obama is playing in MI. If Romney is playing in MI and Obama is playing in MI, that means MICHIGAN IS IN PLAY!

  7. lotmini
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    great point Jeffr….Look at the last 200 years of elections on 270towin…..the president either did a little better (bush in 04), a lot better (reagan reelect), or got beat. i.e carter, Bush 92 etc. If O has lost all the ground that we know he has, he is about to get whipped!

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      But it’s all over now since there’s a storm. Apparently nothing before matters, is what I’m hearing today from people.

      • lotmini
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

        true…it is all over…Thursday, the media will pick up where we left off. RR up 5 or more in gallup, Ras etc…spinning like crazy

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

        Apparently God caused the hurricane so Obama would win. I guess God really wants to reward a president who has a penchant for seeing live babies thrown into dumpsters.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

        Dems are talking up the storm because they’re desperate for an Act of God to save them. I guess it doesn’t cross their minds that the storm was God’s wrath against the Northeast for voting blue.

        I kid, I’m an agnostic, but that’s as plausible a religious narrative as any…

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Two exceptions are Woodrow Wilson in 1916 (he did get 3 million more popular votes, but TR and Taft split a little over 50% in 1912 and the GOP vote to give Wilson a landslide Electoral College victory) and the 3rd and 4th FDR terms.

      Also of note, split Electoral Vote/Popular Vote outcomes have never occurred with an incumbent on the ticket. The first was in 1824 when Jackson won the popular vote but John Quincy Adams won in a vote in the House. Not really even an EV discrepancy on that one, but no incumbent. 1876, 1888, and 2000 all did not have an incumbent running.

      Incumbents also don’t tend to win close elections with three exceptions: Madison in 1812, Wilson in 1916, Bush in 2004. So it happens about every century or so. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen again, but close elections usually favor the challenger. In the modern era it is because the independents break for the challenger. That didn’t really happen in 2004, but polls are consistently showing Romney up by double digit margins with independents. Factor that in with Pew, Gallup, and Rasmussen’s party ID trends and Obama winning looks impossible if those numbers are even close to holding. It also appears that more Democratic support will come off of Obama than GOP support will come off of Romney. So a 10-15 advantage with independents with R+1 turnout (assuming 29% indies – I think reasonable, so 35/36/29 D/R/I) can swing to a seven point Romney advantage. Problem for Obama is that Romney climbs past 50% with that much independent support even when I adjust it for D+5.

      Now, if I lower the amount of indies, I can make things look better for Obama – like if I put the Democrats up to historic highs – over 40%. But even taking them to 38% is taking them with 1 point of their modern high water mark in 2008 – and taking the GOP to one of their low numbers.

      And reality is that if Romney gets to 51%, I don’t see any way he could lose the Electoral Vote. That’s only ever happened in the 1876 election and there were a lot of backroom deals involved in that one.

  8. Tone Loc
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney needs an ad with Lee Iacocca. Stat!

  9. Bob San Diego
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I guess the Dems story would be, “Romney knows he can’t win Ohio so he’s looking elsewhere, and it’s prudent for us to match him tack for tack (like the leader does in sailing).

    • lotmini
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      that is what they r saying but, if you are RR and you know u can not win OH, why spend a “little” in MN, a “little” in PA, and a little in MI…why not pick one and go all in? But if RR is ahead in OH, tied or close, in PA, MN, MI etc, then u expand the map on obama territory and make them fight there too. Exactly what we see!

    • edtitan77
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      To that end Charlie Cook says that private polling from both parties show Obama with clear leads in MI, PA, WI and NV and even money in NC, FL and VA.

      Romney has to lock down these Southern states.
      http://mobile.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/chance-of-split-electoral-popular-vote-very-real-20121030

  10. John
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama camp in full retreat having to defend MN, WI, MI, PA, and his Intrade odds go up today (64 – 38). Proof Intrade has been taken over by ZOMBIES!

    • Todd
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Exactly. It’s like a quarterback’s rumored injury being confirmed by the team doctor yet his team’s odds increase for the Super Bowl?? I can find no valid reason for Romney’s odds decreasing after this news, the Gallup poll votes already cast # & the last two Ohio polls ( Ras & Cincinnati enquirer) showing a lead and a tie?

    • Freddie
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Intrade is pretty useless as a predictor. Ditto many of the UK bookies. Intrade and the bookies can change on a dime and at the last minute. We saw this in 2004 when the phony Kerry exit polls came out. As soon as they were debunked – Bush Intrade and bookie odds soared. Futures markets are usually good predictors but Intrade is useless.

  11. Brad
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in WA but live just across the border from OR, and we get Portland TV. Last night I saw a couple Restore our Future ads during NBC primetime so you should see some sort of report that ad money is being spent here too.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well then, we should be hearing about it in a day or two at the national level.

  12. Brad
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    While I think RR is expanding the map, I no longer think that MI, WI or MN is in play. In looking at ad and campaign movements in 2008, you see that Biden was in Philadelphia the day of the election and McCain was in PA. Though it is interesting that you don’t hear about O placing ads in places like IN, SC or MO – which you should if O was a few points up.

    • lotmini
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      look at it this way: the dam is busting in so many places at the same time. you cant go into Romney states and win so u pick ones u think u c defend. There is no way they send people and money to WI unless they know its close. In 08, team o had the luxury of picking where they wanted to fight. The only real defend was PA. Palin and Mccain went all in there in a desperate attempt. Those states u mentioned are in play. Watch what they do, not say.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

        I heard there are new people doing Star Tribune polling now. If they are anything like the old boss’s, Mitt should be considered ahead in MN. Trib polls usually were like 10% off in favor of Dems. On the other hand, if the new people are accurate, then Mitt is within the margin of error. The state is definitely in play, except with a horribly cheating sec of state. Gotta think Wisconsin is very tight too, if not a slight Mitt lead.

      • Eric
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

        Mason-Dixon did that poll. They are a good pollster. If they lean any direction, it’s a little to the right.

    • Brad
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree that WI close, but let me define my terms better. In play, to me would mean that Mitt has had a discernable lead in a few polls plus he, not Ryan, is campaigning there. So far, it’s more of a strategy to soften things up a bit more to see if they want to send the big guy into any of these states….WI, MI, PA, MN. Plus OH’s still looking iffy and they might be getting desperate with early voting already here and only 7 days left.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

        Though I should say that I agree that it’s definitely advantage RR right now.

      • Brian
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

        You realize Mitt was scheduled to be in a Milwaukee suburb last night and rescheduled it for later this week, right?

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        Brian forgot about that. Good point.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I disagree. I think Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are definitely in play. Polling shows a statistical tie there and Wisconsin has a strong GOTV effort from the Walker recall. Michigan and Minnesota don’t have strong GOTV from either campaign because both took them for granted until now, so momentum will dictate things and it still leans to Romney. I don’t think the storm props up the President much. The jobs report (if it is released) will factor in more heavily.

  13. Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Some see GOP voting tsunami coming http://washingtonexaminer.com/some-see-gop-voting-tsunami-coming/article/2512142#.UJBDfkbCz8B

    • stuckinmass
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      the Romney Tsunami!

  14. TheTorch
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney Campaign strategy is excellent, they are not putting a foot wrong, they are shoring up where they are winning, like Florida with a few more rallies etc. This will leave them time to exploit other opportunities, like rallies in PA, MN or MI. From what I can see they are taking the fight to Obama everywhere. Most importantly they are projecting a positive image and upbeat. Whereas the Obama campaign is in turmoil, they are constantly negative, now I understand they are going back to the old Bain attacks (because that worked so well for them LOL), and they are having to defend territory that they thought was as safe as houses, PA, MN, MI and WI.
    Looks great for Romney, and one other thing, the Campaign Ads, from the Romney camp are terrific, very effective. Obama’s are becoming more and more ridiculous, the Kids Ad (good lord!), and the first time ad (beyond belief!), dreadful stuff. You know it can’t be true, but it is almost if they want to lose this thing!

    • Brad
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Geography is definitely a factor too. It’s easier to make plays in WI, MN, PA, MI when you’re focused on OH and IA than to travel west to OR. I think RR has almost given up in NV, and will only take a trip or two (between them) to CO.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      0bama’s ad strategy only makes sense IMO if he knows record turnout of his base is his only path to victory. Otherwise, it seems pretty nuts to me. He’s trying to fire up the angry left.

  15. Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    a lot of these ads could be just tack for tack…make obama spend money and resources to protect a solid blue state. I have next to zero confidence any of these three states will flip Red on election day. I think this is a tack to make Obama play defense, spend his precious time, money on those areas and less in Florida, Virginia, Iowa, NH, Colorado, Wisconsin and of course OHIO.

    I am in total protect myself cynic mode…i think this is a shell game to keep Obama on the defense and FORCE the media to call these states IN PLAY. That hypes up the momentum, the feeling among Americans that it’s okay, it’s not going to be a surprise if Romnmey wins. Romney MADE the media admit he won the First Debate…now I think he is forcing their hand that they are saying these states are in play. It kills Democrat morale (what;s the point we’re losing Pennsylvania I dont care to go vote) and mkaes Obama look like a major league failed candidate who fell from on high.

    I do not buy in any way, shape or form that these states are in ANY danger of flipping.

    I would LOVE to be wrong, but I don’t see it. I think its round about wrenching to get Ohioans who will vote Romney FIRED UP and those who lean Obama demoralized and defeated.

    • Brad
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah, I tend to agree with this but then consider, if I’m Team O and I have the media more or less at my disposal, why not spend a few hundred thousand in MO, IN or SC and crush this narrative?

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The trends are all there, PA, MN and WI could flip, but it will need resources, which is what Romney is now doing. I also am comfortable with how Ohio is trending Romney’s way. The thing is if party affiliation, like Gallup and Rasmuseen suggests, is as high as say even or R+1 this is a blow out, so anything is possible.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The thing is, though, Romney has been extremely cautious and conservative about triage-ing states. He doesn’t move in unless he’s certain the state is in play, and doesn’t move out until he’s sure the state is 110% in his column (he’s still making certain about FL, for example).

      If he was worried about Ohio, he’d be doing 5 rallies every day for a week there. Moving into MN, PA, MI, Wi is a sign of confidence.

      • edtitan77
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

        I’m becoming concerned about Florida frankly. Although the internals seem to favor Romney. For example in CNN’s latest FL poll he is pulling in 61% of Whites.

        If Romney can get Whites back up to 2004 levels as a percentage of electorate he should be golden.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

        That CNN way oversampled Dems.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        Florida is a lock, I am 100% confident of that. The polling showing it tight is rubbish. If he has has the I4 by 5 or 6 its over.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

        Oh and BTW, remember Obama has his people using Florida offices to ring Ohioans. You dont do that if your close in Florida LOL.

  16. No Tribe
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ” Bill Clinton stumps in Minnesota, hitting Minneapolis at 10:30 am ET and Duluth at 1:00 pm ET”

    That is all you need to know. And, Walter Mondale is campaigning with him. Ha@!

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah, I actually think Mitt should be favored in MN now. I wasn’t buying until the last few days. It will be SUPER close here.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

        What happens if Mitt actually schedules an event in Minnesota? Is it more of an Election Day turnout state as opposed to early voting?

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

        I think so. My mom is working elections out in the rural part of the state. She claims there’s only a move for early voting for seniors.

    • Brad
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Clinton was in OR and WA during the last week in the 08 campaign so I’m not sure how much you can really assign to this.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

        Again, O had 47% on a Star Tribune poll.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, but Mitt was only at 44 himself. Would have like to seen him tied. But it’s still a good poll for RR.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

        There really wasn’t any place for Clinton to help in 08 as Obama was well ahead pretty much everywhere he needed to be and then some so might as well be in those states. Here and now Minnesota has closed and even ABC has moved it from safe to lean Obama so against that perspective it PROBABLY ( I emphasize probably) adds more significance to Clinton’s visit there.

  17. Brad
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher 40m
    Romney takes a one point lead in the WaPo/ABC tracking poll, 49-48. Romney up 7 w/independents. Sample is D+5 (was D+7 in 08, even in 04/10)

    • wmart
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney’s lead with indies keep shrinking dramatically in that poll. He was up 20 just a few days ago.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

        MoE is probably up there for this sub-group but yes, they should be concerned.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

        Obama won Indy’s by 8 in a wave year, Romney is looking like he will win by ~8 this year, it was never going to be 20. D+5 is high.

  18. KN
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any word on Virginia? I know that early voting places have closed there. Am worried we (RR) could lose Virginia if places to vote are not kept open. How are we doing there overall? Any other polls on Ohio? If we have Mccain states, NE Omaha district, IN, NC, FL, VA, OH and CO wrapped up, then let’s breathe a little more easily and focus on getting the Senate. If we also get the Senate, maybe some of us can finally sleep well after 4 long years!!!

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      look for Obama lawsuits by Thursday if they aren’t open by then

    • Brian
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lol, Republicans will crawl over broken glass to vote Obama out, including in Virginia. VA will be red.

      • KN
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

        I have no doubt they will crawl over broken glass, but doesn’t do any good if the place they are crawling to is closed. Virginia and Ohio are giving me heartburn.

      • Brian
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

        Virginia will be fine, you’re worrying for nothing.

    • edtitan77
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Virginia being 20% Black and a more liberal White population in NoVa it’s going to be a nail biter.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

        Romney probably won’t win NoVa per se, just keep the voting in check to preserve the vote down state.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There is no early voting in VA, it is early AB voting under limited circumstances as described by law and you have to swear under oath that the information is correct.

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Way to get the Senate is to bring coattails to Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, Florida, North Dakota, Montana, Arizona, and Indiana. Even in Massachusetts, if Romney keeps loss down to 10-15 points it makes Scott Brown’s job getting enough crossover votes a lot easier than the 25 point blowout in 2008.

  19. Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Latest Poll: 10/30/2012 – Romney winning by 5 points in North Carolina

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/10/30/wralsurveyusa-north-carolina-poll-10302012romney-50-obama-45/

    • Freddie
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama at 45 in NC? He is toast there. I bet on election night it will be closer to 43.

  20. Haus
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Regarding early voting results. This is a good read.

    Gallup: Obama’s Early Vote Advantage Collapses 22-Points Over 2008

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/Gallup-Shows-22-point-drop-in-obama-early-voting-advantage

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And that’s with Dems cannibalizing their Election Day turnout. Just for fun, if that 22-point swing was applied to Election Day as well, Romney would win over 40 states and 400 electoral votes.

  21. TheTorch
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For a laugh! Obama is winning somewhere, and it is a red state…
    http://rt.com/politics/obama-romney-election-us-russia-putin-576/

    • Freddie
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Is that Russia or Madison, Wisconsin? Russia is less communist than Madison.

      Russians must be nostalgic for Stalin.

  22. valleyforge
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Oregon is next. Obama is up 5 or 6 and stuck at 47 according to most recent two polls.

    • Freddie
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama’s “lucky” 47. Stuck at 47 everywhere. I would love to see R/R win Oregon. Beautiful state.

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