Obama +7 in Minnesota — KTSP/SurveyUSA

Don’t have the cross-tabs yet but this was the firm that had a D +9 poll two weeks ago with Obama leading by 10. The 2008 party ID was D +4 and in 2004 it was D +3. As soon as the details are released I’ll be certain to break down these results.

From Tom Hauser, Chief Political Reporter for KSTP-TV, St. Paul / Minneapolis:

KSTP/SurveyUSA: Obama 50% Romney 43% Other/undecided 7%. Obama had 50% to 40% lead two weeks ago. Margin of error +/-4.2

Party ID

This poll was D +7 (Dem 37, Rep 30, Ind 28). This compares to 2008 of D +4 (Dem 40, Rep 36, Ind 25) and 2004 of D + 3 (Dem 38, Rep 35, Ind 27).

Independents

Tied 41-41 among independents.

When you adjust for the unrealistically high Democrat turnout and an even split among Independents, this race is highly competitive, consistent with the actions of both campaigns sending top surrogates to the state and putting ad dollars to work.  This is going to be a fun state to watch on election night.

199 Comments

  1. Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Right, because the Democratic turnout will be *bigger* than it was in 2008. Hey I get it! Apparently all you have to do is say something enough, and it will come true. Okay here goes *ahem* I’m a multi-millionaire! I’m a multi-millionaire! I’m a multi-millionaire!

    ….Damn.

    ~ Brittany

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wait, Undecideds 7%? Does that seem extremely high to anyone else?
      ~ Brittany

    • stuckinmass
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      May I borrow $1000? 😉

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

        LOL!

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t think we need to be overconfident, or get comfortable, but does anyone else see a Romney landslide coming? It isn’t over until the last votes are re-counted- by hand, three times- but I’d say it’s not looking good for Barry. I just don’t understand why someone in the Obama Campai…er, um, the press– doesn’t want to at least suggest a Romney “upset” so they have SOME credibility left after the election…

      • Ron
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

        I see it. Where are all these Obama voters supposed to come from in OH? Or in WI and PA for that matter? Much of his base is alienated–Catholics, Jews, college kids. The Blacks and Hispanics are not too thrilled with him either. That leaves the media–which is doing what it can to buoy him up with bogus polls and whatever else might slow Mitt’s momentum. Meanwhile Romney is cleaning his clock in early voting–and in the polls that count. Obama’s problem is the white voter. He’s lost a huge chunk of it. He’s not gonna get it back either. His job approvals were dismal in all the swing states for a long long time. People are salivating with eagerness to kick him out of office. They would have done it in 2010 if they had the chance. This time they won’t fail.

      • AC
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

        Fyi, Print your own Mitt signs. http://mittsigns.com/

  2. Beb
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Still worth throwing Some bait on the hook… As there is a chance.

  3. Pete
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Together with that undefensible Ohio poll earlier, Survey USA’s basically saying they’re going down with this sinking ship.

    • wmart
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I get very nervous about this “every poll is wrong” stuff. They could all be wrong…or maybe it really isn’t going well for us.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:39 pm | Permalink

        Well wmart, ask yourself this. Do you really think the Democrats will turn out in the same – if not bigger – numbers than 2008? That’s what all these polls are assuming.
        ~ Brittany

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

        wmart’s point, is valid. Even if this poll is D+2, RR still down significantly.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

        “or maybe it really isn’t going well for us.”

        We’re just spectators, bub. What are you going to do if “it really isn’t going well for us”? Not vote?

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

        For Minnesota, yes I agree this isn’t a good poll for Romney. But wmart is implying that really all these polls (Ohio for example) with D+9 and such are accurate and we’re being delusional in saying they’re all wrong.
        ~ Brittany

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

        Now if you want a nutty poll…

        NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher 2h
        New SurveyUSA Ohio poll has Obama up 3, 48-45. Romney up 11 (!) w/ independents. Sample is D+6 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010).

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

        Yea, I was going to blog that poll (still might) but wanted to focus on the Minnesota release. The Ohio poll is bunk for all the reasons @NumbersMuncher says. If you take his tweet and overlay it on his excellent dissection of Ohio that ran on “The Corner” you get a very different view of Ohio’s prospects. It’s a tight race but Romney is doing fine and this poll isn’t worth much beyond a PR boost for Romney.

      • Pete
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

        Brad, thanks. This is the junk poll I was referring to earlier.

  4. zang
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting… so you could say Mason Dixon was wrong and Surveyusa was right… except, would Axelrod really send Clinton to campaign in MN and start running ads there, without doing their own internal poll first?

  5. Pete
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think even Carville said that if the Dems are defending MN PA and/or MI they’re done.

  6. WillBest
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    BS. Obama wouldn’t spend money in any state he was consistently polling +7 in a week before the election. At best MN is Obama+4 right now

  7. zang
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It will be interesting to see what SurveyUSA’s final poll of Ohio will be. Here are its two last polls for Ohio in 2004. Notice the sudden flip in their very last “we were accurate!” poll:

    http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OH041026pressen.pdf

    http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OH041101pressen.pdf

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      zang, thank you, I was wondering exactly this question, “When are they out of nowhere going to suddenly show the true numbers?”
      ~ Brittany

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

        I think last-minute corrections like this pour some cold water on the idea that, at bottom, for some of these polls at least, bias doesn’t come into it.

        I totally buy the argument that the poll skewing is due to oversampling some demographics, weak voter screens, etc. But if they correct at T-1, then this explanation goes up in smoke.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thank you. That is ridiculous that an INCUMBENT suddenly makes up 5 points!!!! He was always ahead.

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I love their justifications for why the shift happened; church goers turned to the incumbent in the last week….ha.

    • cbr66
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You could say the same for Ras in 2008.

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow, those two headlines juxtaposed read almost like parody.

  8. edtitan77
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not impressed with SurveyUSA. If you look at their internals in some of their polls they don’t make sense. One Ohio poll they had about 22% of Blacks voting for Romney. If that is even remotely true Ohio would be lean Romney. Yet in the poll Obama is up.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Internals aren’t always going to make sense because the subsample is statistically insignificant. If you only interview 60 Blacks the MoE is like +/-15% at 95%

    • cbr66
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      At least they show their internals for free. Transparency counts for something.

  9. Brad
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Not a good poll for RR.

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This poll is +3 for Romney compared to the last one, will have to wait and see on the weighting but still most likely way D over sampled. Obama camp sending surrogates and ad-funds to defend the state. Remember we are talking about MN here, most likely we don’t win it but if team O is spending time/resources there it speaks to something.

  10. Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The problem is Sandy has thrown monkey wrench into everything…Obama will surely get a bump..all polls up until today are now worthless…unfortunately.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Troll.

      • PJBRIEN
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

        Indeed.

      • Evan3457
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

        Moby troll, to be precise.

      • Terry
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

        Dems are so desperate… they have to hope a hurricane will save them… Nothing will stop the republican storm on Nov. 6th.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

        Terry called it. Dems want Hand of God to come down from Heaven and save them.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yep, Sandy changed everything. Now oranges are white, so we have to change the name. Apples grow in the ground and pineapples grow on trees now, too.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Far from it. Obama should get some favorable press for his handling of this disaster, but it is KILLING his early voting effort. The mechanics of their early voting is to drive out low propensity voters to his rallies which are still well attended. And then post rally usher them to the voting booth. Without Obama on the stump, there are no rallies near what he turns out to drive up their flagging early vote totals.

      Obama is playing this the best he can but beyond a certain glow that he’ll receive for competently handling this disaster, he needs votes and every day he’s off the trail means fewer in his bank which is the only way he won some states in 2008.

      • zang
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

        I hope you’re right, but think you’re wrong. He’s playing the storm game tomorrow with Chris Christie. He hasn’t had such good coverage in a long time.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

        Keith is absolutely right. He will get some good press, but the early voting is crucial for them and this does upset that. Also Obama as I said somewhere else, is overplaying his hand as usual, he has already got slapped down by Bloomberg, and denied a visit to Newyork for a photo op. So now he has New Jersey with Governor Christie. He will milk it for all its worth, but at the end of the day, it is fine line between being presidential and being opportunistic, he needs to be very careful with this. Does not matter what the media does with this, it is what the voters think…

      • margaret
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

        Republicans are the broken-glass voters this year. There are anecdotes for large waits for early voting in very R-dominated counties and states already. I don’t see Democrats, who seemed unenthusiastic this election before the storm, going out of their way through Hurricane Sandy damage to vote. Bad weather and obstacles keep them at home, resulting in a bad impact on voting on the Dem side.

      • zang
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

        Interesting that Bloomberg slapped him down but Christie is playing right into his hands.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

        Well Christie likes to make everything about Christie, he probably is thinking about his future election prospects. He said that he wont play politics or something to that effect when discussing this on Fox, but actually I think that is exactly what he is doing.
        I may be being uncharitable with that statement, but that is my gut feeling.

      • Todd
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

        Have to agree with Keith. Here in Cleveland every other street is closed, half the city is without power and unless covered in gore tex, you don’t want to be outside. Twice as hard to get out low propensity voters. They lost at least 3 days.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

        If voters were really as dumb as some are suggesting on this point, 0bama has this election all sewn up, storm or no storm; the media will tell them what to do, and having no memory beyond a few days, they’ll have no reason to disagree.

      • edtitan77
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

        It should be noted Christies prospects are slim if Romney is elected. He can run in 2020 but presumably Ryan would be the front runner for nomination.

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

        At the risk of sounding provincial, I am in Texas and if it weren’t for constant Facebook updates from my many friends and family in CT, NYC and all over the Northeast – really, people are not as enthralled by this storm as the NYC and DC-based media would like to believe. Urban northeast libs didn’t appear to care much when Bastrop, TX was on fire (and Obama denied help) or during the ice storms in KY or during the many devastating floods in the Midwest over the years (to name but a few “flyover country” examples). So on a personal level there is sympathy for the people in Sandy’s path, of course, but given that most of the affected area seems to be digging out okay, I’m just betting most Americans aren’t all that engaged in the political drama right now.

    • Ron
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sandy won’t change anything. Historically, the midterm elections of the House usually predict the outcome of presidential races–unless the president involved made a mid-course correction. Michael Barone points this out:

      ” In 1998, the popular vote for the House was 49 percent to 48 percent Republican. In
      2000, the popular vote for president was 48 percent to 48 percent Democratic.

      In 2002, the popular vote for the House was 51 percent to 46 percent Republican. In 2004, the popular vote for president was 51 percent to 48 percent Republican.

      In 2006, the popular vote for the House was 53 percent to 45 percent Democratic. In 2008, the popular vote for president was 53 percent to 46 percent Democratic.”

      In 2010 the House went Republican 52-45%–exactly the ration Gallup reported in the early voting so far. It’s also close to what Battleground Poll predicts will be the end result for 2012. It’s close to what Rasmussen is reporting with his swing states poll.

      Besides, most of the mess from Sandy has affected coastal blue states like NJ and NY and not inland states like PA, NC and VA which suffered consequences no worse than outages and inconveniences that can happen with ordinary summer storms. OH and WI are not that much affected either.

      • Eric
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

        I’ve been repeating this to people too. It’s why I’m telling people it’s a 4-6 point margin, with upside for more. BTW, Wayne Allyn Root predicts a 5-7 point win and Dick Morris has it 4-8 points. Even Pat Caddell, the Democratic pollster for Carter says Romney is ahead in Ohio.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

        Historically, the midterm elections of the House usually predict the outcome of presidential races–unless the president involved made a mid-course correction.

        So, what’s the opposite of a “course correction”? Doubling down is the best I can come up with.

      • Interested Party
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

        The power is out in Cleveland? Wow. Not that I think it matters in the end, but that will suppress Cuyahoga–enormously.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:51 am | Permalink

        Looking at previous mid-term elections, this seems like a recent trend (basically since 1998). Not certain as to why, although I believe Gallup had a poll a couple months ago showing people increasingly in favor of one-party government (Congress and the President having the same Party) So maybe people’s House votes in mid-terms are increasingly reflecting what they also want matched in the White House 2yrs later.

  11. Brian
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Lol, a poll showing Obama ahead (in a state he SHOULD be ahead in) which almost assuredly oversamples democrats, yet Obama felt spooked enough to send his #1 surrogate in to perform triage, and the doom-n-gloomers are still out of the woodwork saying how this is an awful poll for Romney and Ryan.

    Jesus Christ.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Oh but Brian, didn’t you know, the only reason Romney is going into these “solid blue” states is because he’s sooo desperate to get any states he can because he sees he is losing everywhere else. And did I mention the earth is flat, too? 😉
      ~ Brittany

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The downside to the popularity of the blog seems to be the concern trolls coming out of the woodwork.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

        Yup. “Brad” is one; “wmart” another. Welcome to the board! How are things in Chicago?

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

        What? I’m a concern troll now? LOL. Things in WA are just fine. I like RRs chances, though I’m little worried about OH and not quite buying the landslide meme developing here, but that makes me a concern troll? To do what, to get the dozen or so hardcore Mitt-fans who make up 80% of comments not to vote in who-knows-where for a candidate I can’t stand? C’mon.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

        I didn’t mean to single you out Brad, I think everyone is a bit nervous/skeptical to some degree but some of the constant “I’m worried” posts get old on here from some posters. Of course you’re concerned, that’s why we are here lol. Tomorrow is a big day because I think the Ras October Party-ID is coming out.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

        Jim, we’re good my reply was for WJ.

  12. kenberthiaume
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    there was an article on rcp about an “undertow” election whereby dems are just too indifferent to wait in line for a status quo they don’t really like. Maybe that’s what happened to carter in 1980. Anyway, if an incumbent is only up a few points in a state like MN, maybe that’s cause for concern for him. Romney’s people are most likely going to show up. Saying you’ll vote obama is just a default option.

    • Ron
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      See my above comment. It tallies with the “undertow” theory. Michael Barone first pointed out the correlation between midterm House elections and presidential results. They are usually close percentage-wise. In 2010 the House went Republican 52-45%. That’s what Gallup is reporting for the early vote tally so far. Ditto for Battleground Poll prediction.

  13. Blackcloud
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I got your stupid poll right here. CBS/NYT has Obama up one nationally with likely voters. The catch. N = 563 for likely voters, with a total MOE of 8. What kind of horse manure is that?

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542662/poll-storm-puts-close-race-on-pause/?pageNum=1&tag=page

    • JGS
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And D+5 voter ID weighting (even higher than that among registered voters).

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      that’s funny. nice catch. worthless poll at MoE +/-8

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

        LOL that’s great. Race dead heat!*………………………….*MoE: +/- Landslide.

    • Brad
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Isn’t CBS Nate Silver’s top poll? Well, it is now. /sarc

  14. Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    William, I am hardly a troll, just a realist.. and a certified anti obama.. i just have a s ense that obama will come thru this smelling like a rose..The indies will switch to him, I am afraid.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      John, thank you for your assurance.

    • Chris
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Why would indies switch to Obama suddenly because of Sandy? One reason they’ve left the reservation in the first place is his lack of leadership over the last 4 years…taking phone calls and putting in photo ops while touring disaster areas isn’t going to change that.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

        Totally agree. People are not suddenly going to forget that they’re unemployed or can’t afford Christmas this year just because he did his job for a few days.
        ~ Brittany

      • PJBRIEN
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

        I get the whole Benghazi off the front pages thing…that seems material. Mitt was on a real roll leading up to Sandy but we’re now back to a more neutral/freeze standing. I’m still not seeing Sandy as a game changing event. Obama is Obama and a Red Cross appearance or a NJ photo opp with Christie will not change things much,

    • beach91
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You need to turn off the TV bro. They are slanting your point of view and having the desired negative effect on you.

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mow. Bee.

      Or, maybe not. Who is to say?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      John:

      I understand to a point. Part of me always looks for reasons to fret. Obama does have a leadership deficient to these Indies…but the bottom line is that it is in the realm of the economy…and this natural disaster isn’t going to help that..

    • Ron
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I doubt it. There’s a cultural factor also at work in this election. Midwesterners like Romney and Ryan play well in that part of the country. Romney’s a heavyweight candidate–unlike old campaign lightweights like Dole and McCain. He was formidable in the debates. He was formidable raising money. He is formidable as a strategist. Obama is
      facing a tough competitor–and the whole country knows it and feels it. Romney’s a leader, somebody who’s accomplished something with his life, an impressive guy in terms of his capabilities, especially regarding the economy–but also in terms of working with the opposition. I think most of the country has therefore already made its decision based on what it perceives is the essential difference between these two men. One of them is impressive, the other looks clueless–flailing not unlike McCain in the last weeks before the election. Look at the Des Moines Register. It’s typical of what most sensible Americans outside the liberal plantation are thinking. It’s not a conservative paper–but it’s a sensible one.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tell us why you want to vote for Romney, and why you want 0bama to lose.

      I’ll even make my motivations clear: 0 trolls cannot say anything both sensible and positive for Romney, and at the same time say both sensible and negative things for the zero. With the reverse being true too, of course.

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here’s another one to chew on.

      If R was down, don’t you think it would be all Benghazi, all the time? Of course it would, just like O is all abortion, all the time right now.

      R’s polling says they are up, they are going to win, and they are in final push mode.

      O is trying to use Sandy as his October surprise to his advantage, but unfortunately it won’t work.

      PS–Trump’s deadline for O to release his passport and college records is tomorrow at 5 PM. Lest you forget, that is the real October surprise–payback for Bush’s DUI release, 12 years later.

    • Ron
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 1:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      People are onto Obama. Remember how he toured after Obamacare passed, trying to convince the public it was a wonderful deal? The numbers against the health plan plunged even further after he was done. He lectures rather than dialogues. His answers sound like snow jobs rather than honest responses. He’s way over-exposed at this point. People are sick of him. Seeing him in NJ with Christie “acting presidential” isn’t going to change any minds.

  15. Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New poll shows Obama only up 6..in Oregon..polling the magical 47%.

  16. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Turn Minny red……… or very close at least. No chance O wins by 7. That’s almost hysterical.

  17. John
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In other highly skewed SurveyUSA polls released today the internals are as follows: Ohio D+6 (shows Obama up 3), Florida D+5 (show a tie). Romney wins independents by 11 in Ohio and 5 in Florida.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i wrote about that ohio poll in another thread. If you do the numbers it’s obama by .6. You have to make the number D+9 to get obama by 3. Also those who votedin 2008 voted obama by 9, whereas he only won by 4.6.

  18. Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    William…what good does it do to be Pollyanish?

    • Brad
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      John the only way to deal with guys like William is to ignore him.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There’s no middle ground between moaning that “all polls up until today are worthless” and being “Pollyanish”?

    • Dave
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Pollyanish?”

      Ah ,there are plenty of them on here get used to it.

  19. Ben
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, question. I heard on Fox News twice tonight that Ohio early voting is at record levels but your data has it down from 2008. Curious where the discrepancy is.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think you’re mistaken. I barely touch Ohio early voting. If I wrote anything I was quoting someone else.

      • Ben
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

        Thanks.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      maybe they have a lot of absentee ballots out (still 600K I think), but as of 10/27 they had 1M votes or 17% of the total vote from 2008 as early /absentee ballots having voted. In 2008 it was 30% total.

  20. zang
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    SurveyUSA has Romney up +5 in NC. A 7 point swing from their most recent poll.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ah, could it be the “Oh look, the tide just *suddenly happened* to turn!” is starting with the polls?
      ~ Brittany

      • wmart
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

        Since they still have Obama up in Ohio, it doesn’t appear so.

  21. David
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.wral.com/wral-news-poll–romney-edges-ahead-in-nc-as-election-nears/11717803/

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am cracking up at this: “We’ve seen so much volatility in this race, so you can move from a deadlocked race to a 5 percentage point race over a matter of days,”
      ~ Brittany

      • zang
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

        The polling doesn’t make sense. They can talk about individual state contests all they want.. but in past presidential election history, states move together. So jumping to a big lead in NC, but remaining static in OH does not make sense.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

        Neither does D+6 in OH.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

        “We’ve seen so much volatility in this race, so you can move from a deadlocked race to a 5 percentage point race over a matter of days,”

        You sure can if your PPP!

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

        Sounds right to me Brittany, if you create the volatility you can make the numbers say whatever you want them to say…be it deadlocked in a tie or a runaway lead!

      • Eric
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

        They probably just applied a tighter likely voter screen in the last poll to get the best accuracy.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

        It really makes no sense at all. What’s there to be “volatile” about? If you’re for 0bama in October 2012, you’re for him regardless. If you’re looking to vote him out after 4 years, what’s going to change your mind at this point? Everybody wants to fight the last war. It’s a totally natural human response. But this is soooo not 2008. The zero has a substantial record now. Voting for the “first black candidate to run for re-election on a horrible record!” isn’t blowing anybody’s skirt up.

  22. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dear concern trolls-

    If the voters REALLY had doubts about Romney’s ability to be presidential during a storm crisis, he wouldn’t have the support he has today.

    The storm does not help anybody.
    It can hurt candidates in the following ways:

    1. Obama – if FEMA or some other government agencies messes up he could be blamed. Also if he appears to “milk it” or politicize his role in the storm too much he loses points.
    2. Romney – if he tries to “overplay” his hand by forcing his way into storm areas and gets in the way of rescue results he looks bad. Also if he tries to over-insert himself into the relief efforts (i.e. John McCain suspending his campaign to “fix” the Lehman Bros. collapse)

    I agree with Keith that the storm overall hurts Obama more because it gets in the way of his early voting efforts.

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agree with all those comments C-Bus and I have nothing else to add!

  23. Eric
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This election comes down to whether you believe the polls from Rasmussen, Pew, and Gallup showing the electorate to be very close to even parity among the parties. (EVEN from Pew, R+3 from Rasmussen, R+1 from Gallup)

    They have been right in past elections, much more so that the media polls that were wrong in 4 out of the past 5 elections. It comes down to who do you believe is right?

    Because there are 3 basic variables affecting the margin of victory or defeat between Romney and Obama.

    1. The ratio of crossover votes from the other party. This is how Bush won in 2004. More Democrats voted for Bush than Republicans voted for Kerry. Historically, Republicans ALWAYS win this metric. McCain got a higher % of Democrats voting for him than Obama did Republicans voting for him. ADVANTAGE ROMNEY

    2. The margin among independents. Every national poll shows Romney leading with independents. The average margin among 10 national polls is 9 points. ADVANTAGE ROMNEY

    3. The composition of the electorate. This comes down to do you believe Rasmussen, Gallup, and Pew are telling the truth? All say the same thing. All have been correct in the past, especially Pew and Rasmussen. Gallup has been very close too.

    Once you realize that Obama needs a D+5 turnout or higher to maybe eek out a win, then the conclusion is unavoidable.

    The only polls showing Obama doing well are those with horrible likely voter screens (and even those aren’t that good for Obama), those done by Democratic pollsters spewing propaganda, or those done via Internet polls such as Zogby and Reuters.

    If I was a drinker, I’d be purchasing the champagne about now. Alas, I have to settle for comedy television on MSNBC and laughing so much that it hurts. I’m going to be laughing at them even before the results start coming in, but I’ll try to stay focused enough to attempt to project results for states to you guys (first time doing this so not sure how that will go).

    Anyways, try not to get stressed out about stuff. All through the day next Tuesday we’re going to be fed a steady dose of lies and propaganda. The exit polls are being done now by calling people at home and asking them if they voted. Don’t believe them!! This is your warning on those exit polls! Even the first results coming in might not be good because the counties are going to slam you with a ton of early votes. Don’t believe me? http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/farewell-to-pre.php

    Stay calm and be patient. Wait for the results to come in. Enjoy some popcorn and laugh at the misery on MSNBC with me. I know most of you don’t have the confidence to start laughing at them before the results come in like I do, but give it a try. It’ll be even better when they see exit polls that make them believe things aren’t so bad. The exit polls will likely so a close, tied race, just like they did in Wisconsin in June. How did that turn out?

    So, just sit back and enjoy the ride! This is a historic time! Be happy you’re here to witness it!

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Can I have your autograph?

      • Eric
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

        Wouldn’t be worth anything.

    • Ron
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Then there’s this: Obama is still under 50% even in polls that struggle to show him ahead.

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Eric, these have basically been my thoughts for about a week now and you broke it down better then I could of. This should be headlining the site lol.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If I were Nate Silver or one of these prognosticators/diviners/whatever-mancers, I’d seriously consider averaging ALL of these crappy polls into one score, and then averaging it with Gallup/Rasmussen/the other good pollsters.

    • Dean
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think I just read a post from the most confident man in America 🙂

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

        The Dos Equis of poll watchers!

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Great post! Thoroughly enjoyed it. I’d like to be buying that champagne right now, but my inner self wants to protect its ego. I want to have it both ways; ie. I was right, it was close, but RR lost, or I’m absolutely delighted I was wrong and RR won going away. I think we all play these head games with ourselves. (PS: I’m not a phych major but an engineer; go figure).

    • Colvinus
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You have inspired me, sir. I’m really hoping Romney ends up getting to that magical 10+ advantage in independents comes election day. Then maybe my little song can become a meme.

      I noticed a lot of classic rock references in this website, so consider this my contribution. You guys can guess the song.

      Win the I’s, with that double digit
      Big surprise, with that double digit
      O, when R gets through to D, it’s always new to D
      That double digit gets the best of D

  24. John
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Larry Sabato (I don’t know anything about him but he seemed arrogant) on the O’Reilly show tonight basically flushed Gallup down the toilet saying they totally blew the Bush/Gore election and had a “24 point swing within a week’s time”. Is this guy credible? I always thought Gallup was a good polling organization because they use the largest sample of any.

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Alan Colmes on Orielly just said Obama is going to win. Look at Nate Silver!!
      LOL

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

        Like I said above, they think if they just say something it will come true. I feel like asking them if you need an invitation to visit their world because they clearly don’t live on this one.
        ~ Brittany

    • Eric
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sabato is one of those guys who always believes the polls. He was saying in 2010 that Republicans might not win the House. Republicans winning the House was never in doubt. The doubt was the margin. He’s way too deferential to incumbents. Beltway guy I think.

    • zang
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Gallup has been pretty atrocious in past elections, to be honest. But their skew has usually been in favor of Democrats. They had Obama winning by 11, rather than the actual 7, and had Bush and Kerry tied in their final poll.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I like Larry most of the time. Problem is that he is a little correct and a little incorrect. Data on their website shows that on Oct 30, 2000 it showed B 47, G 44 LV, Nov 6th B 47, G 45 so he is wrong on that point,

      Now looking back on Oct 25th, it was like B 53, G 39, so by Nov 6th, it did tighten up, but it the popular vote was pretty much even. The cavat to it is that their was the October surprise with the Bush DUI which shaved a point or two off of Bush.

      I believe Larry has called it for Obama since the summer, so it serves his best interest to stay with his predictions. It is also good for business that things remain tight..

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Two of the bigger victims this cycle are going to be Larry Sabato and Nate Silver. I’m not sure how they will be taken seriously going forward. How can you be a supposed “political expert” when you don’t talk about party ID shifts? I just don’t get Sabato.

  25. John fisher
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Thank God got for the internals. How else would we know how screwed up these polls are.

    • Yong
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I would like to know internals back in 2008 or 2004 and compare these pollsters today.

    • Ron
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 2:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      Actually we don’t even need the polls. It was clear before the election season got going that Obama was in trouble. His job approvals were hovering around 45-48%. The economy was faltering. Unemployment was at record highs. He had defied the public by passing healthcare. He was clearly warned he was in trouble by a disastrous midterm election. Instead of listening to the public, he doubled down.

      His only path forward was to demonize the opposition and to spin a myth of his own inevitability. The media and their pollsters helped him concoct this. That’s what came crashing down on Oct 3. All he’s got now is his record. The public has found its champion–and it will vote him into office on Nov. 6. The rest is a Kabuki dance in which the players go through the conventional motions. But it was really over a long while ago.

  26. Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The American people are very fickle. Obama looking presidential will help him with indies

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sure, with a few…but they are with Romney because of the future direction of the economy…looking presidential, whatever benefit, its like a nitrous buzz…temporary..

    • Svigor
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Right, definite 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 bump for 0.

      If voters were stupid enough to make this an issue in substantial numbers, no one would be voting for Romney. They’d just follow the MSM’s lead.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

        Here is just one example. Both my parents work in the aerospace industry – Dad has been unemployed for 13 months, Mum (who is a registered Independent) had to take a job in Texas and has been down there for a year just to keep their heads above water, and now she’s extremely worried with these budget cuts to military and defense that she won’t have a job soon, either. Trust me – they don’t give a sh** about a stupid storm.
        ~ Brittany

    • C-Bus GOP
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Look concern troll – you mean to tell me that despite the fact that Independents have basically abandoned Obama since 2009 and despite the fact that Romney has polled well with Indies since he clinched the nomination – the indies are going to shift back to Obama now 6 days before the election because they saw him tour the Jersey shore wearing a windbreaker jacket looking at wreckage?

      I know I shouldn’t feed trolls like you, but honestly R would not have garnered 50-51% of the national vote over the past week if there was any doubt as to how he could handle a storm crisis.

      Now go back to democratic underground where you belong and chat about how awesome D+8 polls in Ohio are.

      • AJ
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

        I guess im not cool. What is a concern troll?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Like I said John, (if you are just not a concerned troll 😉 )… he will get a bump on his job approval, just like the Detroit Tigers would agree that the Giants did a great job in the World Series, but they are not going to vote for them.

      This will not depress the Republican voter (which will ultimately drive the results in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Florida). Second, when he has double digit leads with Indies in most polls. if he loses a few, it won’t make the ultimate difference…

      But fret if you must…some of us somehow enjoy it..

    • Ron
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nothing will erase the bad impression Obama made during the debates. “Looking presidential” is not the same as being presidential–and the sad truth has been apparent for some time that Obama is not good presidential material. Many sensed this before the debates but the debates removed all doubt.

  27. Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I will gladly eat lots of crow the night of Nov. 6

    • Svigor
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t do that. Just tell us why you want Romney to win and the 0 to lose. Unless you’re constitutionally incapable…

  28. allthingsgeography1
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For anyone who’s interested, I just wrote an extensive post on my prediction of who will win the US Presidential Election on my blog. It definitely appears Minnesota is competitive and will be into Election Day. Absolutely no big surprise. For whatever reason that state is becoming more red as time passes and it’s showing up in this poll.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      allthingsgeography1, I’ve said it before but I have a great deal of respect for you. Bravo on the blog post, very detailed and objective.
      ~ Brittany

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

        I appreciate the positive commentary. Thanks 🙂

      • Svigor
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

        He definitely seems like a dispassionate Dem, that rarest of critters. I almost kinda wish he’d troll some…

        Just kidding. But I don’t want it to seem like I just like hearing from him because he’s been saying an 0bama loss seems likely. But maybe I do, hard to remove one’s own biases.

    • zang
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Very interesting read. I am among those (a minority here) who think things have been completely upended by the storm. The ultimate October Surprise. Obama was turning off independents in droves with his negative campaigning, but now he gets to play “president.” I still believe Romney has the upper hand, just based on how the campaigns have been behaving.

      • wmart
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

        I basically agree with all that. I want one really good poll out of Ohio besides Rasmussen.

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nice analysis man, that takes alot to lay out a convincing arguement like that even if you dislike the results. Political discourse in this country would be much more pleasant, if anything, if more people on both sides were like you.

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

        Agreed!
        ~ Brittany

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

        Thanks. I’m a bit of a science guy, so I’ve learned to be a bit dispassionate about results, even if they disagree with what I want or expect. It’s hard to do, but it’s just the name of the game.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nice write up…nice looking site also. Surprised you didn’t add anything about the EC or battleground states (if I were a BO supporter, I would comeback at you on)…or maybe you wanted to keep it short and sweet? Cause it is..

      Thanks again for being a part of this site/blog. I have a feeling even if we didn’t agree on who is going to win, you would be a great guy to agree to disagree with…

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

        I kind of alluded to it in the whole “State of the Electoral War”…while Obama seems to have a top line edge in Ohio, Romney is playing offense in the Blue State map. It’s really telling and that was why I made it a major point in my piece.

    • zang
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I remember back in the days when you would have dispassionate liberals like David Brinkley who would give no bull thoughtful analysis. To be clear, there are plenty of bomb throwers among the conservative ranks.

    • Ron
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Read it. You are a ruthlessly honest guy.

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Good article on your blog, good points made, and totally agree with your comment about looking past the headline figures with polls, that is so important, the internals are where it is at.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thank you for the blog post. I think it’s good to stay as objective as possible, no matter which way we might lean when it comes to a candidate or party. We may be on different sides, but we see similar trends. I saw the writing on the wall back in 2008 as well and figured we’d see high levels of turnout for the Democrats with a heavy independent swing to Obama. Great analysis.

      One thing I’ve noticed is that I’ve never seen the GOP base so charged up, not even in 2004 – at least not down here in Florida and we’ve been a pretty swingy swing state. It’s far form scientific, but I drive a lot around the Tampa Bay area (a very swingy part of a very swingy state) and have counted yard signs and bumper stickers since 2004. Obama had the high water mark in 2008 before this year and way out paced John McCain, but McCain had his fair share. I also look at the big signs that get put up at businesses – over a dozen for Romney this year whereas I only saw three Obama signs last time and none for McCain. No big Obama signs. I had to stop counting the Romney yardsigns when it got to 1,000. Last time I counted just over 400 Obama signs and about 180 for McCain. Same area this time. Over 1,000 for Romney and 15 for Obama. Seriously, 15. If people are supporting him, they don’t want anyone to know publicly. Not as big of a bumper sticker advantage because people are doing less of that, but still well over 150 more.

      So I can believe the R+2 or even R+3 when you couple it with a depressed Democratic turnout. There’ve been a few outliers, but the polls have consistently shown Romney with a 10-20 point independent advantage for the most part. The Republican part of the electorate would crawl over broken glass because they do truly think the future of the country is at stake. That may be an oversell, but it creates a strong sense of urgency that the other side doesn’t have. This could be close and I think President Obama’s only hope is in a close election. I think Romney is the only one who has the opportunity to bust the race wide open.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

        ” This could be close and I think President Obama’s only hope is in a close election. I think Romney is the only one who has the opportunity to bust the race wide open.” Agreed. Hopefully I’ll gladly eat crow on November 7th and Obama will have his 2nd term. LOL. But I prefer to write what I see. A close race I think would favor Obama. Romney trying to expand the map is a good strategy to try to prevent that from happening.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Very brave to go out on a limb like that and put it all on the line! Kudos.

    • J
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Allthingsgeography,
      Nice analysis.thanks for sharing.

    • NHConservative
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How do I find your blog?

      • Colvinus
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

        Just click on his name.

        Also, I want to add my kudos to allthingsgeography. Very level-headed and sober analysis. I admire your ability to so dispassionately predict that your guy will love based on your own view of the facts. I am not sure I would be able to do that if I were in your shoes (though I hope I would).

  29. Ben
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ironically trolls and Nate silver fans used to cite the importance of the incumbent crossing the 50% line as proof of reelection as Obama inched towards it. But when he topped out at only 47% we learned about new unproven theories about electoral college paths and early voting advantages. Dems now trail there so we have to trust +6 models? Pulease.

    • zang
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Haha, yup. I remember 2004 well. CBS and NY Times would have blaring headlines “IN THE DANGER ZONE” to discuss a poll number where Bush led, but was below 50%

    • Svigor
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I wouldn’t mind some links backing that up. I only recently even heard of the guy (I don’t watch TV. At all. I regard it as an open sewer), and have taken a visceral dislike to him based solely on his obnoxious cultists.

  30. zang
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One other odd thing that pollsters do. The new CBS poll has it 48/47 among likely voters. They then have a series of questions on job approval, candidate attributes etc. If you look closely, you will see the “issues” questions are among all respondents (i.e., adults, not even registered voters). What’s the point of that?It is misleading as to what VOTERS actually think and care about.

    Link to CBS poll data:

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, they don’t want to waste the interview once they find out that the person one the line isn’t a likely voter.

  31. Interested Party
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s another thing to chew on. In poll after poll, voters reject OCare by 54%. That likely will be Romney’s upper limit. O’s upper limit appears to be 47-48% (his approval rating, and his poll average). That’s near where this is going to end up.

    As I write this in a suburb of Western PA, I just saw two back to back ads: (1) “The New Normal” by American Crossroads; and (2) an ad by PA showing that you will be asked (but not required) for your ID.

    Wow.

  32. JGS
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Doug Schoen on Hannity just says that Christie’s fawning over Obama’s performance vis-a-vis Sandy is “inexplicable” for a Republican governor one week before the election. Agree, and if anything has me concerned, it’s this.

    • Ben
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Saw it and agree. He is getting used at the detriment of the election for POTUS. Stand down Christie

      • JGS
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

        He can’t stand down now, he’s committed. Am worried about his heaping more praise tomorrow.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think we, who follow this to a degree the normal voter doesn’t, are overly sensitive to the “overt” mistakes or benefits of what someone says or does. Is this on the same level as killing OBL? No, how about getting the unemployment level under 8%..I would say not really…Again, there is a lot of BO supporters hoping that him making a few phone calls and holding some telecons and doing what is expected is on the same level as the first debate (and I would disagree). People are NOT going to forget what the past 4 years are about because of what they see on TV over the past 24 hours or the next 3-4 days….sorry

      • lotmini
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

        agree…plus, notice how the liberals are really trying to make a big deal about Romney holding the food/donation drive event. They should b careful there. any normal person would like what Romney is doing for the victims. If the liberals on tv keep it up, it may backfire. Remember the funeral in MN during the wellstone race. Dems used it for politics and it blew up on em.

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

        Yeah what else was Romney going to do? I mean sure it’s not a huge amount of stuff they brought together but what else was he supposed to do?

        1. If he campaigns he looks heartless and cold.
        2. If he over-inserts himself (i.e. tours the areas hit and gets in the way of rescue crews) he looks bad
        3. If he does nothing he looks heartless and cold

        By Friday we’ll all be talking about the jobs number (whether good or bad).

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

        Attacking Romney for holding a food drive will not be received well. How well do attacks of politicians helping out at a soup kitchen go? We all know there is some degree of political calculation, but I think people have learned a lot of Romney and his charity that they may think its genuine. Doing it in Ohio may help him there.

    • C-Bus GOP
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It is over the top, I agree. However, Schoen himself is being a concern troll.

      Christie is an R governor in a blue state that was the hardest hit state of all by Sandy. He is thinking about getting resources for his own state, and he is thinking about his own re-election.

      He is not throwing Romney under the bus.

      If Christie politicized this and somehow was perceived as not getting aid to his state fast enough or not getting enough aid – he would be villified and may not survive re-election. Remember he was elected during a wave election himself into a hostile non-conservative environment.

      If anyone claims that they were going to vote for Romney but saw Christie praising Obama (for giving him $) and figured it was a negative endorsement of Romney- then they weren’t really going to vote for Romney anyway.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

        I think 24 hours of quiet is tough on political junkies a week out of an election. No polling from going on for a few days to ease our fears.

        By Friday, this will be (the fears) since both Romney and BO will be back on the trail. OFA is doing polling now to see how it is helping BO, but like Keith said, he needs to get on the trail to GOTV because a 52-48 loss doesn’t look that much better than a 53-47

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

        I’m not too worried about Christie at this point.

        Also I don’t think this whole situation helps Obama. His reaction in comparison to Isaac back in September may not look so good. When poor black people in Louisiana were affected, Obama turned away. When rich white people in New York were he went to their aid. I don’t buy this at all, but there’s perception. There’s also a cynical view that he’s only doing this because the election is so close and can’t get away with not doing it.

        Meanwhile, Romney is collecting food and supplies in Ohio, the most important state in this election so far. They got some of the storm, but nothing compared to what Jersey, NYC, and Eastern PA got. I’m not sure a lot of people outside of these heavily Democratic areas are paying that much attention other than casual. They saw the storm, but no one I talked to today said anything about the President. The biggest reason why they would is because he hasn’t done his job well with these situations in the past. Someone asked on the radio today why he didn’t cut through all the red tape on the economy like he demanded today of FEMA. Why didn’t he cut through the red tape when Benghazi happened? Is it only when he needs to be re-elected that he acts like a President? That may be how many people that are inclined to not vote for him will see this.

        Doing well handling a disaster over a brief span of a few days does not mean you can turn around an economy that you have failed to turn around for four years. The damage has been done by his policies and inaction of the past.

    • Dave
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Seems like I’m not the only one worried about Christie’s ramblings. He hit the airwaves pretty early to start praising Obama. Republicans just can’t seem to control what they say. Just when indies are making up their mind, if a natural disaster wasn’t bad enough, republicans don’t need to reinforce the notion that the president in his estimation is performing remarkably. Amazing that all Obama has to do is throw some cash around, send out some resuce assistance, and even republicans lose all control. Even if Christie is just doing his job, he doesn’t need to get lavish with the praise. Not now. Have some restraint man. A simple thank you will do. It’s not like Obama is doing anything that any other president wouldn’t do. It’s just that Christie is just doing a real good job making it look that way. What’s Obama going to do withold assistance? Again, even is Christie is doing his job (asking for assistance is one thing, endlessly thanking the president one week before an election is entirely another), there’s zero upside for republicans in this and potentially a whole lot of downside.

      • JGS
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

        And there’s huge political downside for Christie. If it is a close election and Romney loses by a razor-thin margin in a single state, a lot of Republicans are going to blame Christie, and they are not going to forget come 2016. I still think it is Romney’s election to lose at this point, but I totally agree with the sentiments expressed by Dave here. Christie does not need to go out of his way to praise Obama, there’s a big difference between being appreciative for the support and heaping lavish praise on the President who, let’s face it, is trying to use this storm to his own political advantage here to change the subject away from Benghazi, Romney’s momentum, Obama’s losing in states he should be winning in, etc.

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not worried. People expect the President to be involved–changes no minds. What is does do is keep Obama out of Ohio for another 24 hours, which is another 24 hours lost to early voting. Combine that with the power outages currently in Cuyahoga county and I’d say the O strategy in Ohio is taking a bit hit.

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      One more thing. The election trajectory is set. This is now about turning out your base. The undecideds are still going to break 2:1 for Romney, and there are a lot of undecideds in these state polls. Even in Ohio, 10% say they could change their vote. I think Schoen and Cadell are thinking a bit too aggressively on this one.

    • rcl_in_va
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t you think Christie cleared his comments with the RR campaign first? FWIW I think right or wrong the comments were in keeping with RR campaign strategy. Ok, now everybody beat me up on being naive,but I’m not worried either.

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

        This seems like a tougher issue on the RR campaign for the following reason:

        1. No campaigning meant not much of R on TV
        2. Storm response meant more O on TV “looking presidential” and lots and lots of Christie on TV blabbing these comments.
        3. Christie has done a lot of stumping for RR and did the keynote address at the RNC so it seems to play worse than if you had for example the governor of Arkansas making these comments.

        Yeah he was over the top. But Christie is:

        1. An emotional guy
        2. Soon to be running for re-election in a very blue state. If he fouls up the emergency response and is seen to be playing politics with this, he’s toast. He’s drumming up the “bipartisanship” because of where he is. He is thinking about himself first and the RR ticket second. He basically said just this to be honest.

        Keep in mind:

        1. The news cycle of the day inflated this a bit
        2. Schoen and Caddell are dems themselves and bascially concern trolls on fox with this
        3. Ultimately Christie is just a surrogate and we will have forgotten all about this in 3 days. Surrogates can do you only so much good and only so much harm. Just like Bubba campaigning for O – yeah he draws decent crowds, but does he actually help O all that much? At the end of the day, Bubba is not running for office O is.

        Yeah it will sting a bit to see Christie and O tommorow walking up and down the Jersey Shore like they are BFF’s. But honestly I’d rather have O on the Jersey shore than in Ohio or anywhere else in a battleground state. Once everybody is back on the trail this is all out the window and forgotten about.

      • Dave
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

        If RR OK’d the comments then they know more than most. NJ is lost for RR. NY is lost for RR. VA, NC and the perceptions of undecideds in other states watching the nightly news is the main concern. If there’s a cushion they see then easier to accept. But all we here see are a couple polls showing Romney leads and a lot of polls, skewed or not, showing a tight race. Anybody that hasn’t made their mind up at this point is wishy washy. Their psychology is. They’re having a hard time between the two candidates otherwise they would have made up their minds. In a normal environment without images of suffering, rescue, death and a president doing what can to help and a republican governor praising his every move, they break 2:1. In this environment, it’s a crap shoot unless there’s a cushion. And the there are the other races. Whether it’s cause to worry over is up for debate, but there is no upside to heaping praise and potentially significant downside among the wishy washy undecideds that will make up their minds at the last minute. I just don’t see the point with limited upside. But if the race is truly over, then hey, why not. Kudos to the president for working in bipartisan fashion with a GOP governor who has been one of your staunchest critics. Always nice to see the president doing the right thing.

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

        Heck, maybe RR told Christie to get all buddy buddy with O and get him out on the beach – knowing no one will care in 3 days anyway and doing this mainly to keep him out of the battleground states?

      • JGS
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

        I’m wondering (and so is Hannity) why Christie didn’t invite Romney to tour the damage as well, to be even-handed and avoid politicizing the event. After all, if Romney does win, the clean-up effort in New Jersey is going to continue into Romney’s presidency, so this would have made a lot of sense.

    • Ron
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Christie probably wants and needs fed cooperation and money. A lot of his appeal in NJ crosses party lines.

  33. Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    https://twitter.com/ToddKincannon/statuses/263390576253222913

    Someone claiming to have a source that states the Romney campaign says both Oregon and Washington state are in the swing category. It is true that it appears Washington may elect a Republican governor for the first time in a 30 years. That could help. I don’t suspect Washington is truly in play, but it appears Obama can’t open up a lead there either. I really do think Oregon is in play. Apparently there have been some SuperPAC ads out in both states for Romney.

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The guy who tweeted this is a campaign lawyer who has served on the Republican National Committee and he’s verified, so I’d say his info is legit. He’s based in South Carolina.

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Whoa, talk about a full court press. I had heard about the Romney “death star”, he runs a sound campaign and then UNLEASHES the funds right at the end. http://static.ddmcdn.com/gif/death-star-1.jpg

      • Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

        I’m not sure he’ll put money into those states, though buying time in Spokane might not be too bad if it gives him a shot.

      • wmart
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

        That’s why the storm is so inconvenient. I think the ad buys would have greater force without something else, and Obama getting great free media attention, blunting the impact.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

        PACs are already putting money in OR, so….

      • Colvinus
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

        “It was I who allowed you to try to assassinate my character all summer long. It is quite safe from your pitiful campaign… an entire legion of my finest debate performances awaits it! Oh… I’m afraid the turnout machine will be QUITE operational, when the election arrives…”

    • Dave
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      WA in play? Maybe but there’s some strong headwinds republicans have to fight. The gay marrige and pot initiative will bring all the extreme libs out of the woodwork. They’re super gungho about those two measures which likely makes up for any lack of enthusiasm for the president. And while they’re there, might as well vote for Obama too. Romney may not win WA but even if he comes close, that could be a positive harbinger for OR.

      • Brad
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

        OR might be in play. WA is not. I live in WA, work in OR, fwiw.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

        I agree…I’m originally from Seattle and I’ve said before and say it again…Republican for President in Washington State is a HARD HARD sell. Not IMPOSSIBLE, but hard.I wouldn’t bet money on it unless the election is a total blowout for Romney (I’m talking like 375+ electoral votes for Romney). Oregon is a bit less liberal and might be an easier sell, but still tough as well. Margins for Governor are typically smaller than for President. If it’s close in the Governor’s election (which it is…I’ve voted for Rob McKenna, the Republican, for Attorney General before), then Romney will lose Washington, in my opinion.

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      A couple weeks ago PPP, of all people, did a Washington state poll that showed Obama up only by 5, 50-45. They were floored. I think they did it for a paying client, too, so it had to be on the up-and-up.

    • Guest
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:02 am | Permalink | Reply

      That seems like a horrible idea.

      MN, MI, PA, WI, and NV, Of course. Maybe even NM and OR. But WA would be a horrible waste of money. And even OR is every Chicago politician’s second heaven.

  34. GV
    Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Off-topic question: How accurate is Gallup’s unemployment survey usually? They have the rate at 7.1% as of now! The only thing that worries me right now about the election is another drop on Friday that could drive some undecideds to Obama

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They had it at 10.1% in September’s survey released early this month. But remember, they don’t seasonally adjust and we’re entering the Christmas hiring season for retailers. I believe their number historically tends to drop at this point while the Labor Dept’s adjusts and does not. Their adjusted number is at 7.7% – though this still doesn’t compensate for the season.

      They also noted an uptick in part time workers, so the underemployment number stayed high. So the surge is based mostly on more part timers in the workforce.

      • GV
        Posted October 30, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

        Thanks Jeff!

      • Guest
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:03 am | Permalink

        Part-time workers in a part-time Presidency…

    • Posted October 30, 2012 at 11:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Additionally, I don’t think the downturn that was so drastic near an election actually helped Obama, especially if people aren’t feeling it. It made it feel rigged even though it wasn’t. I think the Labor Dept will be concerned about any number dropping too much and may compensate for higher part-time employment.

  35. MikeN
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    No 2010 exit poll in Minnesota for comparison, but Dems won the governor’s race by .5%.
    2004 to 2008 gain was minimal, from D+3 to D+4. This is probably because Minnesota is the highest turnout state, so they don’t have as many new voters. But you would expect more of a boost than that, so perhaps a Republican swing is in progress there. Compared to other states, you could have expected D+14 in 2008. So we could maybe say R+10 in 2012 if the national electorate is even. R+1 is perhaps the upper end of what’s achievable.

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