The power is out in Manhattan for me but it is only annoying. Please keep those less fortunate in your prayers As the power outage is causing many problems for those that live closer to the water.
Tune into the Late Debate with Jack and Ben (10pmThe ET) for our chat on Minnesota turning red this year!
Battleground Watch 
70 Comments
You do realise that if Minn DOESN’T turn red, there’ll be an army of GOP faithful coming after you with pitchforks!
Hey! he’s on right now I think! You can access the feed online live! http://tunein.com/program/?ProgramId=20495&StationId=32579
just clicke the play button at the top near the “Neal Boortz Show on News Talk AM 1130” and it will open the live feed in a popup winodw. It’s definitely Keith, they just mentioned the website.
You can find the station on Iheartradio which is FM quality.
iheartradio http://www.iheart.com/#/live/1213/
Listening to you live Keith. You’re doing great!
Tell me about it! He’s doing simply awesome.
Agreed. Impressive.
We’re listening now Keith!!!
Call back in buddy. You got dropped.
What’s the number to call in to the show? They just said it but I wasn’t able to write it down fast enough.
~ Brittany
I haven’t heard them mention it.
651-989-5855
Dems = 2,705 Reps = 2,859 washoe
Good lookin out Paul!
Keith is back!
Too bad I can’t listen to it from outside the US.
You can if you use the hotSpot trick from Anchorfree, which gives you a temporary USA ip address!
No point now though because he has finished!
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/29/Gallup-Shock-Romney-Up-7-with-early-voters
Look at these numbers!!!!
I wonder if there is any comparison to 08 available?..and also volume of votes…
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/Early-Voting-Now-11-Could-Reach-30.aspx
Oh – Great! Now we’ll get all the wacko’s posting!!! 😉
You did super Keith!
The Gallup numbers for early voting are stunning. If that is anywhere near correct. WOW.
Heard the radio interview…… Excellent!!!
Has anyone else seen this?
Romeny 52-45 in EV
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/29/Gallup-Shock-Romney-Up-7-with-early-voters
Yes, see above…
Looks like I found the data from 08..see above. You have to read between the lines, but Obama was up in 08 also in early voting…funny how that is….when enthusiasm plus indies gives you the lead and a lead in early votes also…
Thanks for all the compliments. Those guys were great hosts. I’m doing everything off my DROID so no posts until tomorrow when I’ll switch to a part of Manhattan with electricity. Paul Thx for the Washoe #s. We’re turning the tide! Keep fighting the good fight everyone and please keep those more affected by these storms in your prayers.
Thx for letting us know..heading to bed.
Stay safe Keith
Also meant to thank everyone who put the links up. Super helpful. You rock!
Ohio Governor predicts comfortable Romney victory on Election Night:
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/28/14757523-ohio-gov-predicts-romney-win-as-auto-politics-dominate?lite
This is very positive…not only did he predict a win he qualified it as ‘comfortable’
“Comfortable” says about 2-3 points to me.
Blast! I was listening to that station earlier today. Had no idea this was happening.
That station is awesome, they have it on 103.5 FM Minneapolis too.
http://www.lasvegasnvblog.com/2012/10/tickets-available-for-obamas-north-las-vegas-rally-on-thursday/
According to this, Obama returns to NV later this week. Color me surprised.
looks like nev waschoe totals out looks like the GOP gained 154 today
My mother-in-law lives in Minneapolis. She just told my wife that a lot of her lib friends believe Romney is going to win the Election anyway, so they’re voting for Romney because of a bet with their male friends who swear they will shave their heads and go to work in a dress the day after the Election if MN goes red. I heard the radio guys mention something similar after Keith’s interview. After all, this is the state that elected Jesse “The Body” Ventura governor (the former pro wrestler who had a shaved head and also wore a dress a time or two back in the day). Stranger things have happened…….. We’ll see!
I weighty reason for cross dressing if I have every heard one! Lib women for Romney in Minn, I would have never thought it in my wildest dreams!
While on the one hand it bothers me that women vote based on wanting to see their male friends humiliate themselves, rather than voting on the fact that Obama has almost destroyed this country in 4 years….this is genuinely funny. And hey, I’ll never complain about more votes for Romney!
~ Brittany
I’ll tell you what. If liberals will vote for Romney if I shave my head and wear a dress the day after the election, I’ll do it. Please. Pass the word.
Hey All –
Here is a reminder of why so many people just can’t believe the BS answers we’re getting from PBO, Panetta et al. Listen close around 7:40.
http://www.pilotsofamerica.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42816%3E
This isn’t movie hype. It’s our way. It’s the way of the US Military. At least the US Military that I grew up around. Perhaps not the US Military of PBO. Seven more days!
Neil
Awesome day in Clark County! Since Keith is without electricity and said he won’t be posting anything for a while I hope he doesn’t mind if I post the actual numbers… they are Dem 14113, Rep 12492, and Other 6352. That leaves Dems down 3.1% day over day, Reps Up 4.1% day over day, and ‘Others’ down 1.0% day over day. This is all in the context of yesterday being a good day in it’s own right for Reps to have an even better day over day comparison from!
This would explain why Obama is returning to Nevada….
I guess he had better! There’s only 4 days left of early voting but the current Dem vs Rep turnout lead is 47300 and if we have another day tomorrow that is even a little like today then it’s more than possible that the Reps trendline will rise to cross the falling Dem trendline, causing that lead to actually *decrease*. And all that is without even considering the ‘Others’ category and how they might break for the challenger etc. or how election day turnout typically favors Reps.) This is the only significantly Democratic county in Nevada (Washoe is only a couple thousand votes lead this year which pales in comparison to 47000) so unless Obama creates an unbeatable gap here that the rest of the state’s counties and election day turnout can’t overcome then Romney will take Ohio… and all Romney needs is Ohio and Nevada and he’s over 270. (assuming he takes FL, NC, and VA). I hate to be too optimistic but it seems to me that the pertinent question to consider is rapidly ceasing to be whether Romney will win this election, but rather by how much he will win it.
Definitely good news. I was beginning to fear that the Democrat hoardes would be enough to sweep Heller out. But if trends from the past couple of days keep up, Romney has a real shot at this state. I can’t believe people in such a recession racked state would want more of the same.
I crunched the numbers from the “Other Counties”: Republicans have a 10,950 advantage in early voting, and a 501 returned absentee/mail in ballot advantage, for a combined 11,451. These numbers do not include Mondays results. I wonder how this compares to 2008? For an area only representing 14 percent or so of the voting population, it looks like they are currently poised to erase 25 percent or so of Clark County’s voter id advantage at this point. Not bad.
Thanks for posting!
Please get the information out nvClark. I am all about getting the numbers to the public rather than anything proprietary to my posts. I have far less access than normal to my resources so please comment away with the data. Thank you!
Just to be clear, all the percentages listed above are the increase or decrease in percentage of each individual count to the respective days total count (as opposed to day over day increase or decrease of the respective days individual count to individual count)
nvclark, i too live in Clark County and see more Obama bumpers than Mitts so the numbers over the last 2 days are encouraging but we have a LONG WAY TO GO
I found this article very informative. Why the high cost of polling leads to the skewed poll results that we’ve been seeing: http://race42012.com/2012/10/29/some-thoughts-on-polling/#comments
If it is indeed so expensive to conduct polls it is even more amazing just how many polling entities exist out there (nothing against Elon University, but really?). It would seem to make sense for poll consumers in the mdeida to aggregate resources and do really in-depth polling say once a week using huge samples (a la Gallup but bigger) so MOE is small and party affiliation takes care of itself through large sample size. Hopefully after many/most of the polls bomb on Nov 6th the worst of the bunch will be forced out of existence. The daily tracking polls are just noise for the most part unless like Rasmussen and Gallup they are aggregated into very large samples through averaging.
I’ve been hitting this issue with the polls pretty hard. It’s not some crazy conspiracy theory, and it’s not new either. This occurs every election cycle. Polls always lean Democrat compared to the election results (except for 2008). Not every poll though, just the cheap media ones that don’t screen their voter pools properly. They end up getting a poll that isn’t really a LV poll or a RV poll, but some hybrid mixed poll. You have to dig into the internals to really find out what’s going on. Everyone needs to read that article linked to.
Here’s another interesting article. Very detailed analysis by Dan McLaughlin at redstate. http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/
Right now, RPC has Obama at 237 EV’s. Everyone is talking about OH but if Obama takes VA (13), NV (6) and NH (4), that would give him 270. What can anybody tell me about Romney’s prospects in VA?
Virginia is tight. It’s closer than Florida. Romney can win without Virginia if necessary though, but I see Virginia going to Romney. If Obama were to win Virginia then Romney wins by taking Ohio and either Iowa, Nevada or Wisconsin. Should Romney win Iowa but lose NH, WI, NV, PA, then he’s at 268 to 270 for Obama. But a win in the 2nd district of Maine ties it up at 269 where Romney would win in the House.
Romney’s currently ahead in Virginia though along with Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio. Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania are tossups. I have Nevada, Minnesota, and Michigan as leaning slightly to Obama right now.
Florida’s going to Romney. Even the most favorable Dem samples in Florida polls only give Obama a very narrow lead in Florida.
Eric, Were’nt you telling me just a few days ago that Virginia was in the bag for Romney — that he was up 6 or 8 points, and I was foolish to worry about it? Or am I confusing you with another person? Thanks. Chuck
FWIW, Suffolk pulled out of VA, NC and FL a couple of weeks ago, saying they’re wrapped up for Romney and no need to poll further. There are a couple of polls giving O a lead there but they are mostly garbage as I read them – PPP etc.
Sorry…..That would give Obama 260. But I still have the same question about Romney’s prospects in VA.
Regards to VA – I can tell you from being on the ground in Loudoun County (Obama carried in 2008 54-45, a 11,000 vote advantage) that enthusiasm for Romney is off the charts. Loudoun has traditionally been a Republican leaning county and from all indications we are headed back that way.
In looking at most of the credible polls out of Virgina and Fla, it probably has tightened a bit, but Romney is around 50 in most of these polls….AND not really taking in account tthe probable turnout/ enthusiasm advantage for Romney. That was the reason in ’08 people never saw NC and IN going his way. I know I have parts of me that likes to fret, but again, he has hit 50… Brings down my nervousness..
Yes, the magic 50 is reassuring. Thanks pjobrien for the ground report – very helpful.
Sorry, pjbrien not pjobrien…
we prefer a strong 51.5%… if it aint close they cant cheat!
Actually, pjobrien is also correct. 🙂
Here’s the link in case you missed it.
http://www.twincitiesnewstalk.com/player/?station=KTCN-AM&program_name=podcast&program_id=latedebate.xml&mid=22580025
Keith, I just listened to your interview on KTCN…..and you were brilliant. From your mouth to God’s ear. I’m so thankful I found your website. I go into the first thing in the morning and multi-times during the day for updates. Keep up the good work.
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