Who Says Pennsylvania is in Play? The Obama Campaign

29 Comments

  1. Brad
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:20 am | Permalink | Reply

    They’re clearly worried about the trend in PA if they’re sending Biden.

  2. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:23 am | Permalink | Reply

    This will bring out the crowds, “Scranton native,” lol.

  3. John
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hah – Gaffe-O-Matic to the rescue. This may be what seals it for Romney-Ryan. Hopefully Good ‘ol Joe, forgetting what state he is in, give a Go Ohio State cheer. After yesterday’s game that would cement it!

  4. Shane kovac
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    George Stephanopolis just said on ABC This Week that both campaigns are running ads in Minnesota to hit Wisconsin because people in Wisconsin are tired of seeing ads in their state. That is how off the reservation they have gone.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:39 am | Permalink | Reply

      “Heck, Mabel, ANOTHER Obama ad! But…this one is being beamed in from Minny, so I guess it’s okay.” What a joke.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

        lmao! exactly that reasoning makes no sense!

  5. Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama just canceled two campaign events because of Sandy and now they are sending Biden into PA where the Sandy is supposed to hit.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It makes no sense. Other than to cancel it.

  6. Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    This election is all over. Romney will be elected President. The moment that Obama and Biden had to set foot in MN and now PA is the white flag.

    • jeff
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      October surprises:

      1. Sandyo
      2. Phoney jobs report under 7% unemployment.

      3. Military strike somewhere in Mideast

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

        If the unemployment rate gets below 7 somehow, I will crap my pants.

      • wholefoodsrepublican
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

        dont see how sandy will help obama — it’s hitting his northeast. those are his states…
        impossible to get from “7.8” to 6.9999% –
        military may put some wrenches into obama’s desperate attempt. too little too late too lame
        will undecideds really flip for these?
        dont think chicago people have anything to play.
        the oct surprise happened on 9/11/12

      • Shane kovac
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

        Disagree with the October surprise was the First Debate

        But it still isn’t over until it’s over. Ohio doesn’t even count absentees until the 16th

        Obama by the numbers STILL has the electoral advantage as it stands now. Remember, “they” wont are right to a degree we are banking on almost all the battleground state polls being wrong

  7. Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Western Wi is served by the Minneapolis TV market, it is very possible those that live in western Wi have not seen many ads.

  8. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    To quote James Carville: When democrats have to start defending Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…..”they’re toast!”

  9. Eric
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney up by about 5% nationally right now. This thing is over.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think probably closer to 3-4. If I were Vegas, the over/under would be 5 points at this time.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

        Actually 0.9% according to RCP, but why let facts get in the way?

  10. Eric
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    There’s a lot of confusion because of the polls out there. The thing to remember is that not every poll is equal. There are 5 different types of polls out there. They are measuring different things and they are all correct at the same time. Once you know what kind of poll you’re looking at, then you’ll come a long way in understanding the state of the race.

    The 5 types of polls are:

    1. Junk polls – these are polls with just awful demographics. Maybe they didn’t weight the poll for demographics. Maybe they are just incompetent. Pollsters like Gravis and Zogby are in this group of polls.

    2. Agenda-driven polls – these are polls put out there to create news. They are propaganda. Many internal polls that are released by the campaign fall in there (though not all of them). This is also where polls from PPP belong.

    3. Party-weighted polls – these are polls that weight their results to a pre-determined party ID. IBD/TIPP weights their polls to a 2008 turnout. Rasmussen weights their polls to a turnout model in-between 2008 and 2004 (even though Rasmussen is saying the electorate is more Republican than 2004). You have to understand what weighting they are using and evaludate whether those assumptions are valid.

    4. Low-quality cheap polls – these are polls done primarily by media and university organizations. The top priority for them is keeping the costs down, not accuracy. These polls don’t screen for likely voters very well if at all. They are basically registered voter polls. Most of the polls we see fall in this category.

    5 High-quality professional polls – these are the polls that really measure likely voters. They are expensive to conduct and usually come from organizations that do this for a living. Organizations like Gallup and Mason-Dixon are in this group. Also it’s common that some obscure local pollster for a given state may fall in this category (you really have to dig into the poll to know for sure though).

    Junk polls need to be thrown away. Agenda-driven polls should be ignored. Party-weighted polls need to be reweighted to reflect what the turnout will really be like. Cheap polls should be evaluated as hybrids of registered voter and likely voter polls. These polls have leaned Democratic in the 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2010 elections. They were actually right in 2008. Generally add 3-5 points to the Republican’s margin to get a more accurate read of the race with these polls. High-quality professional polls should be read as is.

    Once you do this, you’ll see the real state of the race and that is a lead for Romney of around 4-5%.

    • John
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Excellent summary. Why then does RCP include types 1, 2 and 4 in their averages and why aren’t there any republican leaning polls to counter PPP? Media pundits are defering to the RCP averages as an authoritative source on where the race stands but if “Junk”, “Agenda”, and “Cheap” polls comprise the bulk of the averages how can it be? Doesn’t averaging junk result in junk that’s just a little smoother? On the surface, it looks like the RCP method has auto-bias built into it and those that view it as Gospel are getting fooled.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

        To stay above the fray. The more you exclude, the more you have to defend why and that takes more staff and is time consuming and expensive. I believe they may need some tweeking after this election regarding weighting of samples at the very least.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        I would guess to appear neutral. If they start favoring one polling organization over others. Partisans who don’t like those polls start attacking them as biased.
        So instead they end up with a method nobody can attack them, but a number that isn’t very meaningful

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Oh, another poll expert that tells me how good Mason Dixon is! Too bad MD had McCain wining OH, and then Obama won by almost 5 points! And MD had O+3 in VA in 2008, final was O+6.3. They had Obama up by 5 in CO. Final result? Obama by 9! Notice a trend?

      Really, do any of you that post all this even bother to look at any facts?

  11. Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    They need to work on the teleprompter – Biden was having trouble and stumbling all over his words on the stump yesterday & was so angry he appeared to becoming unhinged and one wonders if Jill Biden is going to have to call for the medics at one of these things. Also look for a “binder” (really!) to be tucked in the lectern for him to wave and demagoge.

  12. PeterJ
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama is the hopey-changey guy and Biden is the base consolidator. If Biden is going to PA it is to try to solidify the democrat base, not persuade undecideds who aren’t really dem leaners anyway.

  13. Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sigh. This has already been debunked. Biden did same in 2008. Remember 2008, when they won PA by more than 10 points?

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sorry buddy, I live in Philly and travel throughout the suburbs extensively each day. The suburbs resemble Tennessee or Wyoming in their 3:1, 4:1 or even 5:1 average by political signage. I was in corporate tax, but started my own independent contracting company and interact with a number of former Obama voters who have turned on him, some of whom are registered democrats. Whether it will be enough to cancel out Philadelphia’s inner city, I don’t know. But I can assure you that this will not be anything close to a 10% Obama win.

  14. Interested Party
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I was polled two days ago by Susquehanna. Their poll will likely come out in the next day or so. I suspect that R will be leading by 3-4 points in PA. Complain all you want about them, they got it right in 04 and 08.

    Obama is an incumbent trying to run a campaign like a challenger. If he was the challenger, then I could possibly believe a lot of this spin. He’s the incumbent, and if he’s consistently under 50% by 3-4 points anywhere going into the last week, he’s going to lose. Expect 75% of the undecided vote to go to Romney. That is a fact, backed up by the last 50 years of presidential electoral politics.

    Spin that there just aren’t a lot of undecideds. Spin that the hidden Latino vote will materialize out of nowhere. Spin that college campuses will go nuts for O. Please do so, and I hope you’re with the Obama campaign believing this.

    Personally, I doubt that is what they believe. I think they know they’ve lost, and at this point they are trying to protect the Senate to keep the legacy of OCare alive, since they know if the Senate goes R, OCare is repealed January 21st. They need Casey in PA, Barrett in WI, Kaine in VA, and Brown in OH to make that happen.

    Look where they go in the next 5 days. That will tell the story.

    This one is R 52-48 with about 300-320 EV.

  15. Guest
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Peter Palco reminds me of a very active troll on many Conservative blog. One who predicted that Walker would lose, and trumpets every chance to mock Romney and movement Conservatives. The most common tool being LSM polls.

    Greg? Gumbahandpokey? Or just a distant relative?

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