Romney Rally in Minnesota? May be in the works . . .

Tom Hauser is the Chief Political Reporter for KSTP-TV, St. Paul / Minneapolis

50 Comments

  1. Brian
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    All depends on what the internals say. Campaigns never make decisions based solely on what the public polls say. They’re not “eyeing” Minnesota after the Strib poll; that’d be absurd.

  2. petep
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Absolutely amazing! But Nate Silver will say that Minn is safe for O….

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I would like a T-shirt after the election, something like this:

      A map of all the red and blue states, with
      52% Romney: 302
      47% Obama: 233

      and underneath it says:
      “But Nate Silver says…”

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

        But by the time you get the t-shirt nobody will understand and have to ask you, “who’s nate silver?” ROFLMAO

      • AC
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

        That is pretty funny! I hope (actually fervently pray) you’re right.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

        Same here. He should change his name to “pseudo-intellectual libtard security blanket.” They should change “Xanax” to “Nate Silver.” Buncha blind ’em with ‘science’ appeal to authority BS if you ask me.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I mean, what exactly is so complex about election prognostication that you have to use Rube Goldberg math to explain yourself? Like even 5% of Silver’s fans understand what he’s even talking about, lol.

  3. Zang
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    They have to be careful to not be blown off course based on a poll which could be an outlier. I remember back to 2000, when Bush was campaigning in California and New Jersey in the final week of the campaign. (Granted, the DUI story had a big last minute impact)

  4. Zang
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Supposedly, the Battleground poll to be released tomorrow will have Romney up by 5 nationally. I have not been able to confirm this, so take this with a grain of salt. Supposedly Brit Hume said this.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      TIPP is very likely to flip over to Romney tomorrow too. Dropped one of the major Obama days today and moved to Romney +1…. if WaPost hadn’t moved from D+4 to D+6 today, Romney would have been up 2 there. Wave is coming. Starts Monday.

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Brit Hume did remark on that BG poll this morning on Fox this morning.

  5. Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well, he’s pretty much wrapped Florida up, so diverting any time he would have spent here to Minnesota is not a bad idea. It’s looking like Romney’s got Florida by 6-8 points and has played strong here. From what I’ve read too, it looks like Romney has got all of Minnesota except Minneapolis/St. Paul, so an appearance in that area to draw support would be an idea to help mind the gap down there.

    • jeff
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Of course the MSM and the liberal cohorts will spin this as RR giving up on Ohio and desperately seeking other electoral avenues.

    • Brian
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That kind of sounds like Illinois, which would be a bright shade of red if not for that pesky Chicago…

    • AC
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It would be great if Romney could leave Florida and focus more on WI, MN, IA, and NH. I am also thinking that time spent in NH could help Senator Brown in MA. Of course time spent in WI will help Tommy Thompson. I would also like to see the Republicans and their SuperPacs direct a couple million dollars toward ME-02. Romney could help the Repub Congressional candidate and pick up the one electoral vote; plus he would be helping the Repub Senatorial candidate.

      • AC
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

        Here is an interesting link regarding ME-02. I haven’t seen much reporting on this district. Last night I made a small donation to Kevin Raye. I would like to see him get some publicity — similar to what Scott Brown got prior to his election victory.
        http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/27/redstate-interview-kevin-raye-r-cand-me-02/

      • Jon
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

        Brown is a lost cause, and I say with knowing Scott for 15 years. Nice man and all, but MA has dumbest smart people in the Nation similar to Seattle.

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

        I spent a good deal of my youth in MA. People just vote (D) because they’ve always voted (D). There isn’t a lot of thought put into it.

  6. Eric
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m tired of people treating the Real Clear Politics average as the gospel truth. It’s just not the case. It’s wrong more often than it’s right.

    • Kevin
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed. They put up polls from far left organizations that over sample Dems by 5 to 8 percentage points more than Republicans, and take them at face value.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Check out Nate Silver’s cult headquar- er, blog. There it is well-known fact that RCP is run by right-wingers. But then, so is the press, and Gallup…

  7. Brian
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Also, after the Coleman/Franken Senate race, I don’t trust Minnesota to hold legitimate elections.

    • AC
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Coleman won that election. I am not sure why he didn’t contest the 1000+ felon votes. I didn’t read John Fund’s book, but Coleman may have needed to raise that issue early in the post-election wrangling and failed to do so.

      • Kevin
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

        That was a George Soros special. The Secretary of State Project help elect Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie in 2006. Ritchie turned out to be the deciding factor in getting Al Franken a Senate seat through the miracle of “misplaced ballots”.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Poll update:

    1st Tier
    R+4: 51/46 – Gallup
    R+3: 50/46 – Rasmussen
    R+1: 49/48 – WaPost
    0+1: 44/45 – TIPP

    2nd Tier (internet and partisan
    R+1: 46/47 – PPP
    O+3: 46/49 – IPSOS
    O+7: 44 /51 – RAND

    Romney takes his biggest lead ever at one-day tracking of the polls, 48.5 – 46.25, a 2.25% lead. Remarkable. He’s at 1, .04, and .9 lead on the three aggregates. I include RAND for us to get a good laugh.

    • Zang
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ipsos is an internet poll. Rand is the biggest joke of all because it isn’t even a random sample. It could best be described as a focus group that had been selected many months ago.

    • AC
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I would feel better if those margins were widening a bit in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls. For the past few days they have teetered back and forth at their current levels.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

        IT’s not going to widen much at all. Obama is going to get is 47%

      • AC
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, OK, but +5 (52-47 or 51-46) feels much better to me than +3.5.
        p.s. Go Irish! Big win yesterday against a quality team.

      • Jon
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

        Obama is fairly stable around 47-48 and won’t get more than that.

        With Third party leeching off 1% national, then you will get Romney at 51 win and O at 48. The real questions how much does 3rd party take from the battleground

      • Svigor
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:02 pm | Permalink

        The real question is how to counter this wagging the dog on the part of pollsters.

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

        A good way to get more people to question pollsters and their methodology is to e-mail people at major news outlets asking for more discussion of polls. People read those e-mails. I even received a direct e-mail reply from the host of a Fox News show to one of my suggestions–and seemed to agree to try it.

  9. Eric
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    IBD/TIPP weighs their polls to a 2008 turnout model. Gallup has moved between a 3 point lead and a 7 point lead. Rasmussen uses a 3 day rolling average. Fridays and Saturdays have been the worst days for Romney on the Rasmussen tracker going back months. Right now it’s Thursday through Saturday on there. Watch for a bump up in Rasmussen in a couple of days.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      TIPP will change their model. They will not stay down in the mid 40’s. They regularly move in line the last couple of days.

  10. Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Friends in Minnesota should grab their friends and family and go, go, go – and pray that iwhen they get there it will be all the better if they are turned away because of overflow! GO R&R GO!

  11. Kevin
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I would think they would make a one day, three campaign stop in Wisconsin before they would go to Minnesota.

    • Brian
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well that’s already happening, Romney’s holding a rally outside Milwaukee tomorrow.

  12. Shane kovac
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why does Silver value RAND do much? I would think a stats guy wouldn’t use a poll that us essentially a focus group in which the same group of what 3500 are polled every few weeks. It’s the same 10000 people for the whole campaign but he sees it as uber important

    • Svigor
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I keep asking myself the same thing. Silver seems to care NOT AT ALL for transparency, preferring the Rube Goldberg leader of the messianic cult role instead.

      Otherwise, he’d just chuck the RAND stuff altogether, instead of “correcting for it” according to some opaque process, as stated by his cultists.

  13. Zang
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Far fetched? yes.. but in light of the new MN poll, here’s a path to victory without either Ohio or Virginia: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VRM

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hah nice, I love putting together oddball maps. If MN and WI go Romney you don’t need NH either in that scenario. Or if you win NH, you could lose IA and pick off ME2 and have a 269-269 tie. But alas, if MN and WI go for Romney I don’t think you have to worry about OH let alone VA.

      • Zang
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

        This does make me wonder if Romney made a mistake of playing on a too narrow of a playing field. Far more states were contested in 2000 and 2004 when candidates were using public financing. Something to be said for the idea that when one state becomes so saturated with campaigning, after all while, any further campaigning has no positive effect.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

        I don’t think so. Winning FL+CO+OH+VA was and is always going to be the challenge of this election. Mitt is now expanding the field at the right time IMO, check out the new “Expand the Map” fundraising campaign.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

        Ever played Axis & Allies? Perfect board game(s; there have been a couple of sequels) for people who dig playing with electoral scenarios.

  14. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Would love to go if a rally is held, but I’m so very broke.

    • dbergan
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The rallies are free!

  15. Kevin
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Romney makes a move on Minnesota, he’ll have plenty of money to do it with. He raised $118.5 million in the first half of the month, compared to Obama raising $90.5 million during the same time.

    • Kevin
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Correction, Romney raised $111.8 million, not $118.5 million. Still, that’s a lot of bucks.

  16. Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney hasn’t moved into a state unless he’s 100% sure it’s up for grabs, and hasn’t moved out of a state unless he’s 100% sure he’s got it sealed up.

    If he starts moving into MN, WI, MI, PA in the last week instead of OH or CO, he knows he’s won.

  17. Philanthropic_Extortinist
    Posted October 29, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, love this site! You know it’s good since I checked this site more than my fantasy football teams’ score on Sunday afternoon. I live up here in MN and this is an odd state in regards to politics. Think about this, we have Michelle Bachman and Keith Ellison. This state is all over the map politically. We(Minnesotans) tend to elect higher offices for Dems and lower offices to Reps. Our house is R majority and we have a firewall D governor in Dayton(I’m convinced he’s an alien btw). Our media coverage in this state is comparable to MSDNC, but there is absolutely no visible support for Obama, except for the occasional Prius Obama bumper sticker. If Mitt comes here it will really shake things up and a last minute push would serve him well. Having said that, he needs to try to lock up Wisc first, that state seems more ripe for the picking.

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