Obama +3 in Minnesota, Below 50% — Mason Dixon

Last night while watching a certain 5th ranked team go into Norman and beat up on the 8th ranked team, I teased the Minneapolis star Tribune Poll showing President Obama with a slim 3-point lead in Minnesota.  The results are out with Obama leading 47 to 44 demonstrating there is plenty of good news as well as opportunity for Mitt Romney in Minnesota should he choose to expand the Battleground map:

The party ID is D +5 (Dem 38, Rep 33, Ind 29). This compares to 2008 of D +4 (Dem 40, Rep 36, Ind 25) and 2004 of D + 3 (Dem 38, Rep 35, Ind 27). Minnesota party ID was stable between the prior two elections so this election will be a big test.  Is Minnesota trending Republican so this D +5 is unrealistic or is Minnesota stable like Iowa and D +5 is within a reasonable range?  We won’t know that answer until the election aftermath.

Obama leads with seniors 54 to 40 — this is huge for a couple of reasons.  Every where Romney and Ryan took their medicare and social security message , they lead with seniors by typically 10 points.  This demographic appears under the old Democrat mediscare spell.  Obama leads on these issues 50 to 41. Romney has the money.  Blitz the state on saving medicare and here are the votes you can flip plus Undecideds and turn Minnesaota red

Interesting age make-up in the poll.  Seniors (65+) make-up 26% of those surveyed when they were only 13% in 2008.  Considering Obama leads by 9pts with this group you can see this shade in favor of Obama

Independents favor Obama 43 to 37 with 13% Undecided — Independents in Wisconsin also break for Obama versus everywhere else in the country where they break for Romney.  Must be something in the ice up there

Other highlights:

  • Obama at 47 at this point with 7% Undecided in the election means he’s ripe for the taking.
  • Gender gap: Obama leads with women, 53 to 37; Romney leads with men 51 to 40
  • Romney winning everywhere in the state except the urban centers — Hennepin County (Minneapolis) and Ramsey County (Saint Paul)
  • Youth vote: Obama leads 53 to 36, down from 64 to 34 in 2008
  • Obama base soft support: 6% of Democrats vote for Romney.  Maybe there is more votes to peel off with a visit or two
  • Romney base locked up: Only 1% of Republicans vote for Obama
  • Obama job approval at +4 but below 50% at 48 to 44
  • Right track/wrong track is 43/50
  • The debates killed Obama: Among those influenced by the debates 81% chose Romney and 13% chose Obama
  • The state is split over Obama’s handling of the Benghazi attacks: 36% positive, 36% negative, 23% in the middle


  1. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hm. Expecting a 100% increase in senior turnout? And it only gets you to 47%? Would like to see another poll to confirm how bleak things look for Obama.

  2. Jim S.
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    Given the state has been trending R for a while and the nature of the 2008 election, you have to believe the Party ID split ends up looking like 04′ or maybe even a tad better for Romney. Even in 08′ Republican ID went up. I think Romney’s positive and pragmatic message plays well in the upper Midwest and those undecideds could break decidedly for Romney.

  3. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Some of us in Ramsey county are voting Mitt :p

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