Mason-Dixon Polling Director: “Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida”

These are the types of polls I love.  If the I-4 corridor is going to decide the outcome in Florida, why not do a poll of just the I-4 corridor?  Well the Tampa bay Times did just that and Mitt Romney leads by 6 points in this all-important part of the state:

It has been a fundamental rule of Florida politics for decades: Statewide campaigns are won and lost on the I-4 corridor. Today that celebrated swing-voter swath stretching from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach is poised to deliver Florida’s 29 electoral votes to Mitt Romney. An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the Interstate 4 corridor finds Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

“Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. “Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney’s going to win Florida.” “Being that this is I-4, the Florida battleground, the region of the state that usually tells you how it’s going to come out, for Romney to be up 6 points right now … they should be able to call Florida as soon as the polls close in Pensacola if they do their exit polling right,” Coker said.

The Oct. 22-24 survey focused only on voters in the I-4 corridor, but Tampa Bay on the western end has an uncanny knack for almost exactly matching Florida’s statewide results. Four years ago Obama beat John McCain in Florida and Tampa Bay — defined as Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Polk and Citrus counties — by the same margin, 51 percent to 48 percent.

Today? The poll shows Romney leading Tampa Bay 50 percent to 46 percent.

As the blogfather says, read the whole thing.


  1. petep
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    Is the fat lady singing?

  2. beach91
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    Makes me proud to live in Pinellas county! Go Romney/Ryan!!!

  3. Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:15 am | Permalink | Reply

    A remarkable source as Adam Smith makes his DEM leanings no secret. Its important to note that the FL Panhandle – where voters secured Bush’s 2000 victory despite the media calling the state for Gore over an hour before polls closed (we’re on central time) – will deliver a huge amount to Romney and perhaps even enough to elevate Connie Mack over Bill Nelson

  4. petep
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    So, will O cancel his planned Florida stops, or does he just want some golf time before the election?

  5. Dan
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    I guess the Suffolk representative who claimed two weeks ago that Florida, North Carolina and Virginia were already in Romney’s column knew what he was talking about.

    • Todd
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink | Reply

      …and Suffolk called Ohio tied and trending Romney about a week ago. So far they have looked very competent.

      • ed
        Posted October 29, 2012 at 12:23 am | Permalink

        As I recall he came under severe criticism for this conclusion. Also, his bona fides were scrutinized and he apparently had some very bad calls in previous elections. But this time maybe he got it right. This sorta reminds me of my days day trading, where your claim to being a market wizard was as good as your last trade.

  6. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    So how do we interpret Obama’s recent visits there? Desperation? Head feints?

  7. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    things i’d like to accomplish in my final days of my presidency:
    concert with Jay-Z and Beyoncé in Rose Garden
    take Michelle and kids to ski in the Swiss Alps for Christmas
    attend a movie premiere with Eva Longoria
    do some 1 on 1 with michael jordan in white house gym
    put my chicago home on the market so i can
    buy a beach home in caracas where i can write my presidential memoirs
    go clubbing with ahmadinejad
    commission a commission to design a new 50$ bill, replacing that republican grant with me
    guest host for david letterman
    pardon eric holder
    pardon me

  8. Freddie
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:08 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney up +6 in the I-4 Corridor? It’s over. I-4 runs from Tampa through Lakeland to Orlando over to Daytona. It is the swing pat of the state.

    Romney will probably win Dade County, will lose Broward County but it will be much closer than 2008 and may win Palm Beach County. It is possible that Romney could win Broward.

  9. Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    Well the October Surprise is on our doorstep, in the name of Sandy. Could change ther whole dynamic of virginia, penn, Ohio..this storm will impact the entire NE well intil election day…I can see major flooding in the ohio valley

    • Brad
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t think Sandy is going to have a big affect on the election. Making it harder for NJ, PA and E. OH to vote only helps Romney, not the President.

      • John
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink

        This will be a big, bad storm but unless they are foolish and don’t heed warnings nobody should be killed or badly injured unless it is a feak accident. I would not be surprised if the President uses his bully pulpit to do an address to the nation Monday evening pre-landfall or Tuesday after landfall? He will go out of his way to point out all the great and essential things big government does for us in times of crisis.

    • ElmerF
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:26 am | Permalink | Reply

      Republicans and Independents are going to crawl over broken glass, or swim to the polls, to vote for Romney. For Obozo, not so much.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:29 am | Permalink

        seems to be a thing with you calling Obama names. Keep the name calling out of your comments

  10. Medicine Man
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I can’t see the last Mason-Dixon poll in Ohio. I wonder why? Sure would like to get one from these guys and get their read.

  11. Patrick
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just finished a 100 mile bike through Brevard County in FL, KSC to Melborne and back. It was mainly through residential areas and while this is a conservative area what surprised me was I did not see even 1 Obama yard sign just plenty for Romney and Mack.

  12. Posted October 28, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Allow me to echo some of the sentiments from this post. I live in Madeira Beach and my brother lives in Largo–both in Pinellas County. I took the backstreets one day last week from his place to mine–about a 15 min./10 mile drive. I didn’t see one–not one–Obama sign. But I saw at least 20 Romney signs of various sizes and designs. There was even one intersection where there were a bunch of political signs from various candidates–not one Obama sign, though. What it means? I don’t know. But, it can’t be good for Obama and Company.

  13. Posted October 28, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One more thing, on another recent thread, one of the Dem posters here correctly asserted that Mason-Dixon was off on a few of its predictions in 2008. However, they did also nail a couple of the final numbers. And one of those states was Florida. So, I think we would be correct to take this M-D guy seriously.

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