Inside the Romney Campaign on Ohio

Byron York goes behind the scenes with Team Romney to get their sense of where things stand in Ohio and offers some intriguing insights:

Ohio is its own unique campaign

On one hand, Ohioans have seen a different campaign from Americans in most other states.  People in Ohio have been subjected to an unprecedented amount of campaigning, both from the candidates in person and especially in the form campaign advertising.  And its been going on quite a while.  So it is to be expected that there might be some differences between polls in Ohio and polls nationally, which also reflect areas with far less active campaigning.

Ohio polls will align National polls

On the other hand, Team Romney believes there is a fairly close relationship between the national polls and the polls in Ohio. Romney aides are highly skeptical of any results from Ohio that are several points out of line with the national polls.  For example, if Romney is up two nationally, they would find it very hard to believe a poll that shows him down by five in Ohio — to them, that seven-point gap just seems too big. Further, they believe that the national and state numbers ultimately move together, and that if national numbers move, the state numbers will eventually move, too.  They concede that intense campaigning in individual states can change perhaps two or three points, but they believe there is still a fundamental relationship between national and state poll numbers.  They discount the possibility of conflicting popular vote/Electoral College results as extremely remote.

Independents will decide the outcome

Finally, of course, there is the question of who is really ahead in Ohio.  Going back over the last 15 polls in the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the state, Obama led in 12 and three were tied.  None showed Romney leading, so it’s safe to say Obama is leading in Ohio.  Yet Team Romney views the race as closer than the 2.3 percent Obama margin in the RealClearPolitics average would indicate.  And not only is it closer than 2.3 percent, they say, there is also the issue of Romney’s lead among independents in several polls.  In past Ohio elections, they argue, the candidate who won independents also won the election. Obama, John Kasich, Ted Strickland, Rob Portman — they’re all winning candidates who fit that pattern.  So watch the independents, Team Romney argues, in hopes the race will eventually line up their way.

42 Comments

  1. Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am sitting in Africa now and just saw a report 10 minutes ago on CNN International. Warren and Lordsburg which is 15 minutes apart. GM Lordsburg got the bailout and is doing good but the workers from Delphi got the shaft in Warren which is GM’s big parts supplier. They were also in bankruptcy in 2009 and non-union. The retire’s lost up to 50% of the pension, all their health care and all their insurance. Most voted for O in 08 but with a show of hands not a single one lifted their hand to revote for O. All switched to Romney. I have a feeling there are a lot other non-union small business through Ohio that feel the same. Was happy to find this site as I am a news and political junky. No unbiased TV news over here.

  2. Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio just released their poll. OHIO a tie. Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon Minn. O +3. Wow great news.

  3. Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    Columbus dispatch

    Romney closes Obama’s lead to split Ohio

    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/10/28/romney-closes-obamas-lead-to-split-ohio.html

  4. Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    Cincinnati enquirer

    Ohio Poll: Romney, Obama Tied Among Likely Voters

    http://www.13wmaz.com/news/article/201906/175/Ohio-Poll-Romney-Obama-Tied-Among-Likely-Voters

  5. Medicine Man
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    I will be honest, the last line of the York piece doesn’t instill confidence. With that said, this latest poll lines up well with expectations.

  6. Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Should have mentioned this is the Star’s second tie poll. Just released today.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      Link?

  7. John
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    Pack it up folks, the nation’s newspaper of record has just endorsed Barack Obama http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/opinion/sunday/barack-obama-for-president.html (it reads more like a bitter rant about Republicans than a positive statement about Obama). Of course, upon closer inspection the NYT hasn’t endorsed a Republican since Dwight D. Eisenhower (1956), puting the Des Moine Register’s 40 year gap to shame.

    • Dave
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:47 am | Permalink | Reply

      0 = +23 in NY according to the lastest poll. You don’t think all those wall street and hedge fund types appreciate the money flowing from washington the last 4 years? The average NY has voted dem on recent record is +3-10% according to wiki. This is well above that. They know not to bite the hand that has fed them.

  8. LM
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research conducted the poll and they were the most accurate Ohio poll in 2008. And while it shows downward momentum for Obama since it was last done in September (at 51% then vs 49% now), doesn’t it make you nervous that Ohio is tied at a high 49% level now – so late in the game with Romney not having any margin in the state? The survey is D+3 which seems okay, Independents seem a bit low at 10% and Obama has a slight 2% lead with them.

    This survey makes me nervous – if Ohio is tight, then Romney does not have this election in the bag.

  9. Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:19 am | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t have the link it just popped up on the new Realclear poll for today about 30 minutes ago.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:22 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think it is the same poll. There is only one recently tie poll out of Ohio. Unless I’m misreading your post.

  10. Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    My bad I got this mixed up with another poll I was looking at.

  11. Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    You are right it is the 18th – 23rd poll but was posted to Realclear this am. My internet is so slow here in Nigeria I forget what I am doing at times between the page downloads.

  12. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    Quick facts on the dispatch poll:
    R49 O49
    D47 R44 I10 (D+3)

    Independents break for R but can’t find the #

    Enthusiasm: very enthusiastic R58 D 48

    Overall good poll for R. Good R turnout = Obama loss

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      Indies was something like 46/44 O but the MOE was plus/minus 10. Over sampling of Dems/repubs and under sampling of Indies from 08 does make it look favorable. Looks like GOTV and a good results. Romney sees this to and his schedule reflects it.

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:01 am | Permalink

        Hard to believe with so few indies in a D+3 poll that R could be losing the independents am still tied. Means a lot of D’s are crossing over.

        Bottom line: If R gets out the vote and gives Ohio a R+2 margin for example, R wins. And I think R will win independents in Ohio as he is nationally

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:50 am | Permalink | Reply

      More internals for you. http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675

    • Tbowflyer
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I=10? No way. National polls show Indies somewhere around 1/3 of the electorate so you UNSKEW the poll it shows Romney up. Yeah, I see the pol says Indies 46-44 but that’s an Indie at only 10. Someone hacked the poll to keep it interesting – Romney will take Ohio.

  13. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:47 am | Permalink | Reply

    Love the headline with this poll: “Obama slips, still has lead”…..um you have it tied? Unless of course they consulted Nate “Baghdad Bob” Silver about their headline choice

  14. zang
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    This 49 to 49 poll was done on behalf of numerous newspapers throughout ohio, so it will be big news within the state today.

  15. zang
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:51 am | Permalink | Reply

    Read this article again. It doesn’t look like York is talking to high level people in the Romney campaign. Mid-level folks really. Romney’s campaign has been run pretty tight, unlike McCain with the constant leaks.

  16. LM
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hey Keith and others, any thoughts on my comments above on the just released Ohio poll:

    University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research conducted the poll and they were the most accurate Ohio poll in 2008. And while it shows downward momentum for Obama since it was last done in September (at 51% then vs 49% now), doesn’t it make you nervous that Ohio is tied at a high 49% level now – so late in the game with Romney not having any margin in the state? The survey is D+3 which seems okay, Independents seem a bit low at 10% and Obama has a slight 2% lead with them.

    This survey makes me nervous – if Ohio is tight, then Romney does not have this election in the bag.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      Not Keith, but I’m not sure anybody though Ohio was in the bag. I believe their is confidence in GOTV and lack of enthusiasm on the other side. Rassmussen had it tied also last week. The one think in this poll that I see that gets O up to 49 is that it is D 47. In 2008, it was between D 37-39…so that will inflate his numbers.

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      Anyone saying Romney has this race in the bag isn’t being realistic. Am I extremely optimistic on Romney’s chances? Yes. But 10 days is an eternity in politics. ANYTHING can happen. However all signs point to Romney pulling away down the stretch.

      Don’t get too excited or too despondent over any one poll. Every one of these polls has a margin of error bw 3-4 points. Is it close in Ohio? Absolutely. But issues like Romney’s huge lead with Independents plus his campaign neutralizing Obama’s early vote advantage point to good news on Nov 6 IF they keep it up.

      Keep fighting!

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:35 am | Permalink

        Do you have comment on how, if at all, the hurricane will affect voter turnout, whether directly, due to poor weather, or indirectly, with respect to national perception of candidates and their reactions to the storm?

  17. TheTorch
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think Byron York is to downbeat about Ohio in particular, I think he is in a media bubble like most of them and they just cannot see what is happening. If Romney is leading with independents and with the early voting looking good for Romney, then Romney will win. I also just came across this article it pretty much reflects how I see the Obama Campaign in these last days, it is indeed a re-run of something we have seen before… http://weeklystandard.com/articles/george-herbert-walker-obama_657916.html

    • C-Bus GOP
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      Agree I don’t think York really understands Ohio – he is in the bubble.

      BTW this poll was landline/cell with 19,5% response rate.

      Prev Ohio newspaper poll R led independents 54-25. LOTS of variability here. If R carries a few independents even with a D+3 sample (which I think he will) then O loses.

      Interesting that this poll and the Time poll on Friday both cut the D lean in the sample sizes and have shown huge flips to O on Ohio independents when no other polling is showing this……almost as if they just do not want to admit an R lead……hmmmm

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:19 am | Permalink

        I think the thing is the Obama Campaign and the media cannot admit Ohio has Romney leading, and some of the pollsters are doing their level best to ensure it does not show that! Think about it – if the Obama campaign is effectively now all about Ohio and nothing else, then a few polls which show a Romney lead undermines the narrative. They have to show Ohio is tight or with an O lead, otherwise the whole thing crumbles for them… The DNC is already spinning the Early Voting in Ohio, which shows they know what is really happening. The media can continue the pretense that it is tight or leaning Obama, and people like Byron York are in the bubble so they just go along with it. The next few days are going to be fascinating…

  18. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    The more I think about it, I think the main issue with this poll is under sampling of I’s. a bigger I sample (like 25-30%) may have shown are more R trend. There are more than 10% I’s here in OH.

  19. jeff
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    Republicans historically underpoll their actual results. The final Ohio election results closely match the national results. I believe RR will garner at least 52% and so the Ohio result will be very close to that. Remember in 2004 how Kerry was supposedly surging in Ohio? For some reason Ohio polls are almost always bias against Republican presidential candidates and underestimate strength. Most importantly Obama has largely lost his edge in the absentee ballots whose large margins made the difference in propelling him to victory

    • Fred S
      Posted October 29, 2012 at 8:58 am | Permalink | Reply

      Karl Rove was on Fox talking about absentees in Ohio. He said that the Dems were eating into their Election Day turnout. He said that 72% of EV Dems voted in 3 or 4 of last 4 elections, but only 48% of Reps did. He said that the EV is aimed to get out those in your base who are not regular voters. He thinks that this plus the fact that overall EV is much closer than 2008 are a good sign for Reps.

  20. jvnvch
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    It makes no sense that states all over the country have moved at least five points to the right, often double that, or even more, compared to 2008, but Ohio won’t move right by at least five this year. Makes no sense. Romney will take Ohio.

  21. Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hurricane Sandy is the October surprise…How voters percieve Obamas response to this thing will affect the election…Look for Ohio river flooding…massive flooding in penn, Virginai will suffer

    • JGS
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agree with this post, it will be an attempt to contrast Obama’s response on Sandy to Bush’s response on Katrina. But as a poster in another thread pointed out, the correct comparison should be Obama’s response to Sandy (including canceling a campaign appearance in CO) to Obama’s response to Benghazi (goes off to campaign the very next day in Las Vegas and then Colorado). I think the criticism over the latter is animating his response to Sandy — AND, he knows that he is behind and is desperate to try to change the narrative about Romney’s momentum and the decline in Obama’s favorability ratings, and to get the press talking about anything besides this and Benghazi. And he must know that Sandy is going to have impacts into PA and OH late next week just days before the election.

      • wmart
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

        The problem is that the average swing voter doesn’t know anything about Benghazi, so there is nothing for them to contrast Obama’s performance with. It will just be images of Obama looking and sounding Presidential in the last week, right when the undecideds make up their minds. It’s very bad news for us.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Guys, I wouldn’t project so much regarding Obama looking/sounding Presidential for the Indies. I would be worried if both were at 45 but Romney is probably north of 49. It really is about the economy. Footage of him touring a disaster scene may have the undecideds break 1/1 instead of 2/1 for Romney, but R’s lead is baked in.
      Finally, this would be more of an issue if Romney had an issue of not seeming Presidential, but that has been smashed after 10/3.

  22. Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    exactly JGS, Obama will pull out all the stops to save the day for those impacted by Sandy, may just work too. Our dumb luck. So many swing states affected.

  23. n cox
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey guys i don’t have television so I am kinda unsure how the national media is talking about Benghazi. I go to Foxnews.com and its one of the headlines but i go to other lsm sites and see nothing about it. Are the other news organizations even discussing it?

  24. M. White
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 4:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Add the Cincinnati Enquirer to the Ohio newspaper endorsement list. They endorsed him this morning. First time endorsing a Republican since 1972. This is the 2nd largest newspaper in Ohio.

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 5:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I thought I checked that paper and it didn’t endorse Obama in 2008. I’ll check again

One Trackback

  1. […] Read the whole story at BattlegroundWatch […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: