Enthusiasm for Romney in Marion, Ohio? You Betcha!

79 Comments

  1. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney won the election in October. If this storm was in another week Obama would be president again. By that time everything will be working again

  2. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    so going by these polls the election is basically over

  3. drsnsatx
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Going to be interesting to see how R+4.3 would impact Senate races. Has to pull Senate to R majority.

    • fab4gal
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I hope Republicans take back the Senate just to see the look on Harry Reid’s face. And then I will point and laugh. After the last 4 years, I think I am entitled to be childish for a few minutes. 😉
      ~ Brittany

      • stephanie
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

        I am totally with you on that one!

  4. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    the guy from unskewed polling is right?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think he is the Nate Silver version (as a cheerleader) to the GOP. A touch too simplistic to me.

  5. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    so mitt is raising this money to put the senators over the line?

  6. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    so this storm is awesome for mitt it freezes his gains toward the east coast?

  7. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ohio, virginia, new hampshire,

  8. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 9:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    who is more honest unskewed or nate?

  9. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    well unskewed only has mitt at 301 electoral votes

  10. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    he goes overboard in the popular vote sometimes

  11. Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    When all else fails, unskewed makes you feel good, but … We will find out soon.

  12. TheTorch
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ok get ready guys! PPP has a poll out for Florida showing Obama up 1 and wait for it, D+5.
    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
    This tells you everything you need to know about this polling outfit. Absolutely Hillarious! They are on a mission to save Obama and Nate Silver!

  13. drsnsatx
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Have campaigns announced where R and O will be in last 48 hours yet?

  14. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    just add the polls by 4 in romney’s favor

  15. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It does make me feel good you are darn tootin :-p unskewed. So Romney might like this the tighter people see it the more his workers work and the more electoral votes he gets. That’s why he made all his businesses successes. He’s a penny pusher. I hate him. I mean I love him muhahaah :p

  16. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    that’s why in the videos it said that he counted paper clips 🙂

  17. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    the man is insane I’m just glad he is on our team 🙂

    • jeff
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mason Dixon as well as Suffolk have already stated that FL is a lock for RR. Who are you going to believe PPP or them?

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

        Who are you going to believe? In 2008 Obama won OH by 4.6. PPP predicted Obama would win by 2. Mason Dixon? They predicted Mccain would win by 2!

        And that’s what you guys rely on??

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

      • AussieMarcus
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

        Is that the knockout punch, is it Peter? That’s the best you’ve got?

        ONE poll from 2008 is proof that PPP is biased to the Right??

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

        Aussie,

        In this case I’m simply pointing out that PPP had a better record than Mason Dixon.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

        From one single poll 4 years ago?

        OK, I guess in your mind that counters the litany of comical pro-Dem polls PPP has churned out this year.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

        You want more polls showing PPP better than Mason Dixon? Here goes. And they show he was better than Ras as well AND had a GOP bias:

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html
        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html
        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

        Ok, the last one had PPP better than Ras, but the same as MD. But it also shows GOP bias.

        Need more? Should be clear by now that you guys live off myths.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

        Peter, I’m trying really hard not to ban you but you aren’t making it easy. I welcome differences of opinion but you are constantly antagonistic rather than actually exchanging ideas. The issue with PPP wasn’t theri accuracy in 2008 (as I recall they did OK) but it was their behavior since then. They have been caught countless times doing push polling and other advocacy polling and passing it off as credible polling.

        If you are going to only come here to pick fights and antagonize people I am going to ask you to leave. Please decide on your own whether you want to contribute to the site or simply want to antagonize people.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

        This is your site, I can leave if you want. I am simply pointing out facts. This idea that PPP has a terrible pro D record while Ras calls elections OK is simply a myth. I provided the numbers.

        If you want to make this a conservative rallying website then I’ll leave. On the other hand if you want debate on the numbers I will gladly provide it.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

        Peter, I stand by what I wrote. If I wanted you banned, I would ban you. I am asking you to weigh your comments more towards the reasoned end and less towards the in-your-face antagonism.

        The tactics of PPP in open contravention towards objective polling over the last four years make them a highly suspect organization. Full stop.

        That they built a decent reputation and then destroyed it with their push polling and advocacy efforts over the last four years. If you want to debate that be my guest. But citing four year old polls when the criticism is of everything they have done since then fails to address the critique.

        And to be clear, I have no interest in discussing PPP. I have my views and run my site in accordance with those views. If you and other wants to debate PPP in the comments section, have at it. But try to do it without the antagonism. That’s all.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

        Well, the good news is that in just a few days a lot of theories and a lot of pollsters will be tested and we will have a better idea who had the better model.

      • Posted October 29, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink

        Keith, Peter does serve a valuable function by showing us what the Left thinks.

        They really believe this stuff: that D+10 turnouts are perfectly valid, that whole swathes of people have abandoned the Republican party since 2010, that Obama will lose the popular vote by 3-4% but win the EC easily, that Gallup/Ras/M-D/AP/Battleground/SUSA are all tools of the Right Wing Hate Machine, that PPP and Intrade and Nate Silver are gospel truth.

        Go to any left-wing US site like Kos or HuffPo, their posts are full of this stuff.

    • Brad
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Peter pull up PPP from 2004, then we talk.

  18. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    how about north carolina and virginia

  19. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    they gave him north carolina, virginia and florida, so all he needs to do is win one more state and it is over

  20. stephanie
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What do you guys think about the notion that Romney will win the popular votes but lose the electorate votes?

    • Matthew Schultz
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Rather unlikely. The candidates have to come very close in the popular vote for that to occur. Romney is too far ahead for that situation to be probable.

      It’s interesting, of course. It’s sort of like an electoral college tie–political junkies salivate over the idea just because it would be such an incredible phenomenon. But everyone knows it is highly unlikely!

  21. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Lies anything over 2.5 popular vote is impossible.

  22. Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    one question – all of us are pretty convinced by a) the consistent (and growing) national lead that romney has; b) the huge edge he has with indies across all polls and c) what looks to be a huge shift in turnout (from D+7 to possibly R +3 according to rasmussen) — yet none of these three points seem to even be on the radar of the MSM/liberal analysts. are we all just suffering from a mass delusion or do they truly think that it will be a D +4-7 advantage in the swing states on election day?

    • jeff
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Gallup and apparently Rasmussen see a R+1 election.

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      mass delusion. No such consistent and growing lead in the polls, only in your imagination. Check RCP

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

        great, i come to a site looking for analysis from a conservative perspective and get a response from a democratic troll. and i check RCP, thanks. romney’s lead is consistent and obama’s approval rating is declining noticeably.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

        RCP’s average is only as good as the polls they put in and there are many garbage polls, like the CNN/ORC Ohio poll. I have yet to see a poll that adequately represents likely Ohio turnout based on history of R+2 or better.

      • Kevin
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

        Well said broohaha9. I guess some people can’t find a hobby and are starving for attention.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

        You need to read more carefully. The RCP EC map based on latest poll averages has Obama at 290 and Romney has NEVER been ahead of Obama in that calculation. And Obama’s advantage has been rising since Oct 22:

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups_race_changes.html#previous_changes

        RCP’s popular vote average is at R+ 0.9%, hardly a large lead.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

        Actually assuming Battleground has Romney up 5 and they drop off the week old polls, RCP’s average will give a major boost to Romney.

        Apart from the IPSOS tracker, all the “good” poll for Obama are the old ones. Drop them out and Romney’s average goes up from 0.8 to about 2.5%, assuming Ras and Gallup stay around 3-4%.

        And this time last week, wasn’t Obama up about 0.3%?

        -0.3, 0.8, ~2%….gee looks like a growing movement to me.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

        It was R+1.3 on Oct 13, so it depends on the starting date.

        The key one though is the EC vote, that’s what elects the prez. And there Romney has never been ahead and Obama’s margin is rising this past week.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

        Correct me if I’m wrong, Peter, but didn’t GWB squeak out the narrowest, tightest, most contested possible EC victory when he lost the vote by 0.4% or something?

        And you guys are thinking Obama loses the pop vote by 5-10 times that margin, and wins the EC?

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

        Peter, why do you think the RCP averages are accurate?

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

        Aussie, 5-10 times? Doubt Obama wins EC if he loses PV by 5%. Then again I see no evidence Romney is up by 5.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

        Matthew,

        Historical evidence. Not perfect but pretty good.

      • Shane kovac
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

        Actually, Peter Romney did lead the RCP EC count as it stands for about. 3-5 days last week. Then they put NH back in lean Obama.

        Yes Obama leads the EC math as it stands but even you have to admit Obama is not running like the leader and as Carville said if Dems are defending MN and PA and WI they are in deep trouble.

        Anything can happen but Obama sure at least looks and acts like the underdog

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

        Shane,

        That’s not correct. See here the history of RCP EC vote count:

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups_race_changes.html#previous_changes

        Note that Romney has never been ahead and that Obama’s lead is now growing.

        Also note that for all the criticism you guys pour on 538 their EC numbers are very similar to the RCP EC count.

      • Pete
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

        Basing your premise of your argument on a flawed polling avg that is comprised of many partisan and laughable polls is not a good place to be. Fact is larger samples (which any statistician will tell you is the reliable method) favor Romney.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

        Pete,

        Where did that come from? Saw in twitter that conservatives are now waging a war on the Central Limit Theorem, thought it was a joke. Guess not.

    • AC
      Posted October 29, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In my opinion, one of the main objectives of this website is to show that many polls are wrong — because the pollsters overestimate Democrat turnout per what happened in 2008 as opposed to 2000, 2004, and 2010. If we wanted to take the polls at face value, we would just look at RCP or one of the Dem-leaning websites. We come here because we believe that Keith’s analysis is the correct one. So, Peter Palco, stop pointing to biased polls and EV counts based on the biased polls. That entirely misses the point.

  23. Pete
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith:

    No matter how this election turns out, you an your site is a winner. I know I’ll be a loyal follower going forward.

    I remember the days commenting here when there were maybe a couple of comments per post. To see 155+ is great to see.

    Congrats man!

    • ed
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree….I remember those days of scant comments. I’m more of a political/legal philosophy debater, and love sitting back and watching the number crunchers demolish polls I instinctively know are crazy but lack the statistical competence to refute. This site has taken flight and I couldn’t be happier.

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks Pete

  24. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    the problem is florida is not a lock romney is only winning by two

    • jeff
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in Florida. Believe me RR is ahead by at least 5 or 6. Even in Miami Dade which ovetwhemingly favored Obama in 2008 I see abput 10 RR signs for every Obama. Its a lock.

    • stephanie
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      New poll came out today has Romney up by 5, and he has 10 points lead on the very important i-4 corrdor

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney leads the I-4 corrodior by 5 points

  25. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    oh ya I saw that he nailed it then sorry about that 🙂

  26. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    how about NC

    • jeff
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Add Colorado. RR is trouncing Obama in early voting.

  27. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    go to this page it’s honest I am surprised even though it is a fan site for mit

  28. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://mittromneycentral.com/

  29. Kyle F
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hillbilly. Welcome to the grown up table. Now please use proper spelling and grammar!

  30. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    sorry about that kyle :).

  31. HillBilly
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m just a hilbilly Bill + Hill = Hillbilly hahah

  32. Shane kovac
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Short of the RCP jumping over +2 Romney, and anyone who thinks it’s wrapped up is in for a massive heartbreak on Nov 7.

    For us all to just assume 99% of all polls are wrong is dangerous. Whether we like it or not mathematically Obama is winning right now in the EC

    I know I won’t can’t assume anything until someone on tv says the 45th POTUS us Mitt Romney

    • Posted October 29, 2012 at 12:09 am | Permalink | Reply

      Obama is winning the EC if he gets a turnout better than 2008.

      Anything other scenario, not so much.

  33. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 29, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting read from a guy in Cuyahoga county: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2951687/posts

    I’m in Franklin county. I don’t know what the numbers will be. But I do know Obama support is WAY DOWN here vs. 2008. If the Obama supporters are out there they are quiet right now. The Romney supporters (like myself) grow more militant by the day. Where I live (Northeast suburb of Columbus) had a lot of visible Obama support in 2008 (counting yard signs, car stickers, talking to people). This year – probably 10:1 Romney to Obama signs, at least. Probably was 1:1 McCain/Obama, if not slightly more to Obama. And I would call my area more left than the average Columbus burb. The most left-leaning burbs you saw Obama:McCain 3:1, now you’re seeing Romney:Obama 3:2 or so. A huge swing.

    The Dems right now are QUIET. And you know how loud and out the left likes to be. The Romney supporters are FIRED UP – easily more fired up than we were for Bush in 2004.

    KEEP PRESSING!!!!!!

  34. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 29, 2012 at 12:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    One other thing I didn’t address earlier: Kasich’s comments on Meet the Press are interesting. He is not a typical spin politician. Really the most honest talking politician I have ever heard of. When he said Romney will carry Ohio that actually means something.

  35. Ron
    Posted October 29, 2012 at 1:27 am | Permalink | Reply

    Let me summarize things: While I don’t think it’s “all wrapped up,” neither are we in bad shape. We’re definitely on the right course. Look at what’s already obvious. Obama’s losing a chunk of the kid vote. He’s losing a chunk of the Catholics, a chunk of the Jews, a chunk of the Poles–and OH is loaded with each demographic. He’s losing seniors. He’s losing the white male vote. He’s losing the Independents. He’s losing the suburban vote. He’s lost the debate cycle. He’s struggling with an enthusiasm gap.

    So where are these record-breaking Dem numbers supposed to be coming from? More early voters who otherwise wouldn’t vote? More blacks and Hispanics? More college kids? I don’t think so. Even women are getting turned off by the latest ads. His early vote is down considerably. Enthusiasm for Mitt is sky-high compared to what McCain experienced. Benghazi is percolating and beginning to smell bad. WI, MI, MN and PA are adding to Obama’s woes. In fact the only major asset besides money that he has is the media. That’s it.

    And as if all this were not positive enough for us, the trend is our friend Mitt’s considerably ahead in some widely respected national polls. So I’m completely confident we’re doing just fine, regardless of this or that poll or the gussed-up poll averages on rcp–which more and more seems arbitrarily determined. Common sense alone should tell us all this. We see the crowds for Mitt and Paul, we smell the sweat coming from the Obama camp, we sense their desperation.

    Yes, it’s not over till it’s over. But it’s still a good place to be. Things are coming together for our side. The idea that we might win the popular vote and lose the EC seems increasingly like a pipe dream of the left. They only wish. Ain’t gonna happen.

    • Ron
      Posted October 29, 2012 at 1:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      Oh, I forgot to mention Obama’s job approval–which tanked to somewhere about 47% recently. That’s his final number I suspect–nationally and in OH.

  36. jvnvch
    Posted October 29, 2012 at 9:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    Battleground Poll projection: Romney 52, Obama 47

    “The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.”

    Basically the same projection I’ve been making for two years, which is 52-47 or 53-46, Romney.

  37. NMVM
    Posted October 29, 2012 at 9:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    new rasmussen:

    Ohio: R 50, O 48 (1 other, 1 undecided); sample RDI 38,38,24
    R does slip 1 point on the daily tracker to R 49, O 47

    Keith – First post but I’ve been reading this site for months. Great work all around. Pretty much the only way my friends and I can keep sane these days.

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