Obama +3 in Minnesota — Minneapolis Star Tribune

BOOM!

Still think @barackobama‘s MSP ad buy is just for WI?Poll out tomorrow has MN within the margin: bit.ly/TN8AM4 #gameon

— Ryan Mahoney (@rcmahoney) October 28, 2012

Minneapolis Star Tribune poll out tomorrow has Obama’s lead there down to 3

Reminder for the newcomers:

Election Night Surprise: Why Minnesota Will Turn Red on November 6 (Oct 19)

77 Comments

  1. Brian
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not familiar with Minnesota newspapers….is this a liberal paper?

    • AJ
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      republicans call this paper the red star up here

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, very very lib paper.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:16 am | Permalink

        “Is this a liberal paper?” Well let’s just say it makes the New York Times look as conservative as the Orange County Register by comparison. If their polls show 0+3 it’s probably a Mitt lead. I remember some VERY skewed polls coming from that paper over the years.

  2. Paul8148
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    they had mondale up 8 over coleman in 2002

  3. Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Star Tribune is aka the Star and Sickle. Yeah Brian..they are. Obama only up 3 in a Strib poll is very bad for him. They always over sample dems.

  4. stephanie
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith,

    The post does not look quite right.. looks like the format is not quite right. Would you mind to check it so the texts would be readable? THanks

  5. Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Mondale may have been up by 8, until the Wellstone memorial/political rally.

    • jeff
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Probably means that Mitt is either tied or sligjtly ahead. I suspect that he will make a campaign visit this week.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

        is it really likely he would try to swing MN? It seems to me that if MN is in play then he would already have enough swing states locked up to win.

  6. WillBest
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That link in the twitter feed is broken. Think they pulled the story? The top related link is to an Obama +8 poll

  7. uncdave
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    you can donate to Romney campaign to expand the map

    Help them out if you can: https://www.mittromney.com/donate/seven-in-seven

    • stephanie
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just donated!

      • Michael
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

        Me too! Go R/R.

  8. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What is the spread?

  9. northstar
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    the Minneapolis paper has a long and documented history of over sampling dems in their Star-Tribune polls

  10. Jim S.
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Vpb Remember the Romney campaign affiliate that said 305 electoral votes? I call it the “NFC North play”

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “I call it the “NFC North play””

      Ha – I like it.

  11. Porchlight
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Closing in. Strib with Obama +3 means it’s probably tied or better for Romney. Kudos to Keith for noticing that Rochester area ad buy a couple of weeks ago.

  12. northstar
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    the Obama +8 poll was a poll that came out yesterday by the St. Cloud University politicalm science deparment

    • Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes…but this is an old poll. Hard to imagine why they would issue it after all this time. Ridiculous.

    • Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      From RCP, the Star Tribune’s previous poll had Obama up 8. Perhaps it was that one?

      The poll itself is from Mason Dixon, I think Keith mentioned had a good reputation (?).

      • Freddie
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

        Mason Dixon has a good polling company. Better than the Star & Sickle. Oddly enough, Russia Today (RT) has some of the most objective TV news and it is on the web and youtube. I cancelled Obama TV after he won because I refuse to support the TV/Hollywood O ba*tards.

        I think the Midwest is hard to poll because of unions. If you get a pollster call and it is really the union checking to see how you vote – you could get fired or beaten up. They do check.

  13. TheTorch
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is well worth reading it is an article at National Review regarding the Party Affilliation that Gallup and Rasmussen are seeing. I have been keeping an eye on this at Rasmussen. If this is anywhere like what it ends up being on Election Day, then this is a blow out… Could we really be looking at an R+1 ?
    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331828/two-polls-have-chicago-terrified-josh-jordan

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Actually they average to R+2. Which, given a 15% Indy advantage for Romney (Obama averages around 40 in national polls) and the usual small R crossover vote advantage, would be a 7 point Romney win. That would be a 14 point flip from 2008 and carry every swing and light blue state with it.

      On November 7th there is going to be some serious fallout in the polling industry one way or the other. Either Gallup and Rasmussen are discredited or the Marists and CNNs of the polling world go back to the drawing board.

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

        Thought R+1 would be the best possible outcome. Seems big win however it comes out.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

        Yes it would average to an R+2. I can hardly believe it could be an R+1, so could not mention +2. LOL. But seriously, if it is anything like this, it will be a stunner. If the internal polling in Chicago, is seeing anything like this, then that would certainly explain the bizzare nature of their campaign lately…

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

        It’s going to be a big win. Races with incumbents, when they break, break very late in the final week. George H.W. Bush was neck-and-neck with Clinton on Gallup until about 3 days out when it broke for Clinton. Same in 1980. Also, same in 1996–Clinton’s lead shrunk from 17 points to 8 points in the final week. People zero in during the final days.

    • spottedreptile
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      R+ ANYTHING is a freaking landslide. It’s starting to feel too good to be true.

    • Matthew Schultz
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What do you think Nate Silver and his fawning acolytes would say about this?

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

        I think they will blame Hurricane Sandy LOL.

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

        Probably increase Obama’s chances to 101%……

      • nvClark
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

        Aww nuts! You’re probably right! I have it in for Nate Silver and as the original poster aptly put it the “fawning” reverence that people have for him despite the fact that his prediction track record extends back as far as… 2008 and pretty much anyone could have seen the writing on the wall then. Seriously, he had one or two good prediction cycles and is portrayed as some kind of infallible oracle now. His edge is popularly portrayed as his use of “Bayesian Analysis” even though Bayes was an 18th century mathematician… (yeah, your statistical models based on well known mathematics which were set forth in the 1700’s are just the breath of fresh air that campaign analysis has been lacking for all these years)… I was hoping this election would be his reality check, but you’re right, it will all be said to be the hurricane’s fault and something he couldn’t have accounted for. I guess I was naive for thinking you can ever really bet against the B.S. machine. B.S. always wins.

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

        nvClark, if Nate Silver doesn’t lose substantial credibility, I’d have two questions for any of his faithful (deliberate word choice) supporters: (1) what classes, books or other materials have you studied on statistics? (2) is there anything that could falsify his model, other than waiting for another election after which multiple factors will have changed?

        I would ask #1 because I honestly think most people who so vigorously tout his model haven’t studied statistics. I took some courses at university and they were difficult (I’m a verbal guy). Even with those courses, and reading about Bayesian probability as applied in both philosophical and historical scholarship, I don’t pretend to know enough to say with a high degree of confidence that Silver is inaccurate (or accurate). But I do know when someone is just cheering for some source because it merely confirms everything he already hoped was true about the world.

        As far as #2, if supporters can’t reasonably tell us when the model could be shown as inaccurate or unhelpful, then of what use is it other than to support wishful thinking?

        I suspect what drives a lot of Silver’s support is the desire to legitimize liberal beliefs through anything that even touches the periphery of “science.” Too bad polling will never occupy a place in the vaunted halls of the hard sciences, and will only ever be an approximation of the present reality. For liberals seeking its support, it is just close enough to science to be an epistemological system of validation, while just vague enough that any apparent failure can be dismissed for one reason or another–sort of like an advanced horoscope.

  14. RhodyKev
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    And with this, I will sleep very very well

  15. No Tribe
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Yea. And Obama just sent out the Minneapolis Star Tribune Endorses President Obama PR. They are not sleeping well tonight.

  16. nvClark
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    too late, my hopes are already up 🙂

  17. Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This wouldn’t quite bring RCP’s average low enough to make Minnesota a “Toss Up”, although if they threw out the older Obama +10 poll it might.

    Imagine seeing MN go Toss Up Grey on RCP maps.

    • nvClark
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      perhaps not, but this is only one poll and there are 10 days to go… the very fact that we are seriously talking about Minnesota, and that purportedly the Romney campaign is buying ads there, is what makes me excited. Perhaps I’m overexuberent but… well… I come back to the fact that we are talking about Minnesota, as opposed to white knuckle or even despondent fixation on Ohio. I’m sure that is not how the Obama campaign would prefer things.

  18. Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hi Keith: This is a great website to get real time info . Minnesota news is really good. However, can you post more info about Ohio If possible ? The commentator above is right on target about despondent fixation on Ohio. Thx

  19. Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    New Ohio poll out, 49-49 Tie with a D+3 sample http://www.cantonrep.com/topstories/x481711871/Obama-Romney-tied-in-Ohio

    • eatdust11
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:47 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s a very good result for Romney.. U of C has been very good in the past… and I think D+3 is a reasonable guess.

  20. Blackcloud
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    New poll shows Ohio tied, 49-49. Indy number is ridiculous, though: MOE is +-10, which is essentially worthless, because of the small sample size. Harry Enten of the Guardian tweeted that this poll has a solid track record, so this is certainly more positive for Romney.

    http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675

    • Blackcloud
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:16 am | Permalink | Reply

      Survey dates 10/18-10/23. So a bit old and before the last debate. But given how static other polling has been in Ohio, it’s unlikely there’d be much of a shift if the dates were later.

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:26 am | Permalink | Reply

      Toss the poll. It only has 10 percent independents.

      • Blackcloud
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:30 am | Permalink

        They pushed indies according to which party they lean toward, apparently. That’s why.

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yep I’ve read some Dem poll nerds that are a little worried about this poll, they think its one of the best Ohio polls record wise. Also Believe it’s D+6.

      • eatdust11
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:48 am | Permalink

        D+6 was the September survey… this one is D+3.. seems like a decent guess.

  21. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:23 am | Permalink | Reply

    MN is definitely gonna be close. Doesn’t mean Mitt will win but it will be honestly close. I do remember that one Bush year when MN was super close, Star Trib had a poll not long before the election showing the Dem up 11 or something ridiculous like that, making it appear nowhere near close.

  22. Jim S.
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Per Josh Jordan(numbers muncher): New PPP tracker out 49R 48O (Romney +1 from yesterday) D+3 Romney is +16(!) with Indy’s. Overall Obama approval at 44 Approve-52 Disapprove.

    I think Benghazi is starting to really hammer on the Approval rating. Interesting times.

    • Brad
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      C’mon. Up 16 w/ indies yet still down? I’m guessing serious R to D cross-overs but that’s just not realistic…as usual with PPP.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:36 am | Permalink

        Yeah it’s PPP so tread lightly, it actually has Romney up one. If Romney is winning Indy’s anything like we are seeing and Obama is at 44% approval that top line doesn’t reflect reality.

      • Brad
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:39 am | Permalink

        Oh and thanks for posting this JimS…will try not to shoot the messenger in the future.

  23. zang
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:38 am | Permalink | Reply

    I hope this storm doesn’t upend things and give Obama a chance to loos “presidential”

    • Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:43 am | Permalink | Reply

      Zang, I have little doubt that Obama will use the storm to his advantage if at all possible. That worries me quite a bit.

      • Pete
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:45 am | Permalink

        The next time Obama looks Presidentisl will be the first time

      • wmart
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 12:48 am | Permalink

        I agree, and this isn’t being talked about as much as I would think on the blogs I frequent. I think the storm really does have the potential to be a huge October Surprise, and Obama could gain a great deal from it-a nice little job approval bump right when he needs it. And the media will make him look great for the last few days before the election. Throw in a decent jobs report coming out right when undecideds make up their minds, and…I am worried sick about it.

      • Pete
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:06 am | Permalink

        Zero wearing a windbreaker on a beach will make voters quickly forget he called his opponent a Bullsh*tter, he’s been lying about Benghazi, that they can’t get jobs, and that he’s foisting Obamacare on them.

      • zang
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:23 am | Permalink

        Other thing is while Obama is on TV 24/7, looking presidential, the media will demand that Romney cease campaigning as it would be crass and uncaring to do so during a crisis

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:39 am | Permalink

        Romney gets the chance to look presidential as well. People already seem to see him as more naturally Presidential than Obama,especially in the last week or two.

        And any naked, clumsy attempt by the Dems to spin this for political advantage will be seen as such and blow up in their face.

    • nvClark
      Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      I am worried that Nate Silver will be able to point to the storm and claim that it was a foil that he was unable to account for in his model and therefore discount his failure, but I am not at all woried that it will benefit Obama. First of all because I don’t think there is anything that Obama can do to really look presidential in the next 10 days other than say “OMG a big storm is coming be careful!” (any president would promise disaster assistance after the fact). But ultimately mostly because if this storm sways any voters whatsoever, or in any significant way depresses Romney turnout disproportionately to Obama turnout at this late moment in the election cycle then this election is not at all what I think it’s shaping up to be, and in that case I would just watch in rapt fascination and humbled “wrongnitude” instead of dissapointment.

      • Pete
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:07 am | Permalink

        Keith: it’s about time the lib concern trolls arrived at your site.

      • wmart
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:13 am | Permalink

        Well, by any rational standard, Obama shouldn’t even be in this race to begin with, so I guess I just don’t trust the American people as much as I used to. I can totally see lots of undecided soccer moms being swayed by how great the media will make Obama looks in the next week (Presidential, caring, kind-unlike the incompetent George W Bush, the last Republican in the office). Any President would do it, but it will suddenly become a great thing because Obama does-he is already cancelling events to make a big show of “monitoring” the storm, and the media will play this up huge.

      • nvClark
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:14 am | Permalink

        I was worried that I was sounding like a cheerleader and you seem to be calling me a “concern troll”, one of us obviously has a disconnect somewhere.

      • Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:21 am | Permalink

        Watch the name calling. If you can’t offer a substantive disagreement think about whether you’re comment furthers the discourse

      • fab4gal
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:28 am | Permalink

        Agreed, I don’t think there’s anything Obama can do at this point to win the election. It’s all too little, too late. He has offended women with his latest ad, Christians (primarily Catholics) with his sudden support of gay marriage, Jews for his snubbing of Israel’s PM and doing nothing to stop Iran from getting a nuke, small business owners…it’s a lot of people. Then there are all of his broken promises and the fact that he got our people killed in Libya and then lied to us about it and now runs away from the issue. I think people have just stopped listening to him at this point, we’ve all had enough.

        I read an article that said something along the lines of “Unless the Obama campaign can dig up some hidden video of Romney actually practicing vampirism or rolling around on piles of money cackling like Uncle Scrooge, there is no stopping the Romney train.”

        ~ Brittany

      • nvClark
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:45 am | Permalink

        You know what I think people hold against him more than any specific promise to any specific demographic?… It’s the hope… He actually succeeded in making people hope again, and then he utterly flopped it and now they feel suckered and duped. It wasn’t just any old campaign promise that most people typically expect in jaded resignation to be thrown to the wayside. He cynically tweaked a lot of people where they lived, in their heart of hearts, and in their still living ‘bedtime-story’, ‘want-the-world-to-be-better’, ‘the good guy wins in the end’, souls… and unfortunately for him, it’s now hangover time, the price is due, and he hasn’t, and can’t, pay. People are not just pissed, they are hurt.

      • Brad
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:56 am | Permalink

        He did give some people free phones though.

      • fab4gal
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:59 am | Permalink

        Very well said, nvClark! I think hangover is the perfect term for it.

        ~ Brittany

      • fab4gal
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 2:01 am | Permalink

        Haha! You mean WE the taxpayers gave people free phones Brad. 😉

        ~ Brittany

      • Dave
        Posted October 28, 2012 at 8:37 am | Permalink

        “anything Obama can do at this point to win the election”

        Buses of somalians guys, Buses of somalians. They’ll try to print votes they way they’ve printed money the last 4 years.

  24. nvClark
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    Clark numbers are out, not as good of a day today, but not still not completely erasing yesterdays gains.

  25. shiv
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:25 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m with you mitt

    Go hard boy, the nation needs you

  26. zang
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 1:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    Still no MN poll at the Star Tribune. I wonder if they spiked it?

  27. MikeN
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 2:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    What MSP ad buy? You mentioned one in Rochester, is there buys elsewhere?

  28. Rick
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 6:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    Star Tribune poll is up….Obama up by 3 points. I talked to a Republican MN State House candidate yesterday who told me that internal polls showed the presidential race in MN to be within the MOE.

    If Obama is underwater in polling here in the deep blue people’s republic of MN….it’s going to be landslide.

    http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/176113071.html

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