In Wisconsin, It’s Game On

Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics breaks down Wisconsin which is quickly becoming Battleground central of the 2012 election:

Is Wisconsin the new Ohio? It’s beginning to feel that way. As the presidential race hurtles toward a dramatic conclusion, both campaigns are suddenly locked in an intense battle to win the Badger State and its 10 Electoral College votes.

Polls

A new poll from Rasmussen Reports underscored just how close the contest has become here: President Obama and Mitt Romney were tied at 49 percent each in the poll of likely voters, conducted Thursday. Overall, Obama leads by just 2.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics Average in Wisconsin, down from 6.6 percent two weeks ago.

The cavalry

Obama’s campaign has moved quickly over the last week to try to shore up support in a state the president won overwhelmingly four years ago. In addition to the vice president’s visits Friday, the campaign announced that the president himself will make a campaign stop next week in Green Bay. In another sign of Democrats’ concern over the tightening race in Wisconsin, earlier this week Priorities USA, the super PAC supporting the Obama campaign, bought advertising time in five media markets for the final week of the campaign.

Meeting the challenge

The Romney camp has also mobilized more resources to the state, apparently sensing a shift in momentum. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio stumped for Romney on Thursday in the heavily Republican area of Waukesha, just west of Milwaukee. RNC Chairman and Wisconsin native Reince Priebus barnstormed the state earlier in the week, and Romney is set to hold a “victory rally” in the Milwaukee area on Monday night.

The latest firewall

Along with Ohio and Iowa, Wisconsin represents what is being termed Obama’s “Midwest Firewall.” Ohio remains the focal point, thanks to the electoral math; whichever candidate wins the Buckeye State and its 18 electoral votes has a much easier route to reach the magic number of 270. But with Wisconsin (and Iowa) very much in play, the Romney campaign senses an opportunity to break through Obama’s firewall, and with the state’s 10 electoral votes in its column the Romney brain trust can suddenly see a potential path to the White House despite losing Ohio – something that would be unprecedented for a Republican presidential candidate.

Changing map

Under normal circumstances, the idea that a GOP nominee could lose a more traditionally Republican-leaning state like Ohio but win in historically less favorable territory like Wisconsin and Iowa — states Obama carried in 2008 by 14 and 9.5 percentage points, respectively — would appear to be a long shot. But this year is far from normal. Despite having suffered a decline of roughly four points or more in several other swing states since the first debate in early October, Obama’s lead has slipped less than half of that amount in Ohio. He appears to be “defying gravity” there — in the words of NBC News’ Chuck Todd — thanks in part to his stance on the auto bailout, heavy ad spending, an intense early voting effort, and a local economy performing better than the national average. In Wisconsin, however, it appears the laws of physics still apply. Obama has lost 5.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics Average in Wisconsin since October 3, the day of the first presidential debate.

Republican game changers

[T]he Romney campaign has two additional reasons to believe it can keep the president earthbound there.

  • The first is the choice of Paul Ryan, who represents the state’s 1st Congressional District in the southeastern part of the state and hails from Janesville. Ryan’s status as favorite son, and his ability to appeal to independent voters in the state, is suddenly more important than ever.
  • Second, Republicans believe the political machine they’ve built statewide over the past few years, largely to battle the effort to recall Gov. Scott Walker, will make the difference for Romney on Election Day. That machine, which the Republicans test-drove back on June 5, performed exceedingly well: Walker turned out 1.3 million voters in the recall, more than 205,000 more than he did in his 2010 victory.

Early voting

Early voting started this week in Wisconsin, and Republicans say they got off to a good start. “Republican strongholds like Waukesha and Washington counties over-performed 2008, while Democratic strongholds like Dane County under-performed,” said Rick Wiley, political director for the Republican National Committee and former executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. But given the overwhelming size of Obama’s victory in Wisconsin four years ago, Republicans could out-perform 2008 by a significant amount but still come up on the losing end, especially if Democrats are able to avoid a substantial drop-off in enthusiasm.

63 Comments

  1. Posted October 27, 2012 at 10:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    Michael Barone Predicts That Romney Will Win 2012 Presidential Race http://pjmedia.com/eddriscoll/2012/10/26/barone-predicts-romney-winner/

    • fab4gal
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney is definitely winning. Right now it’s just a matter of by how much. So long as he wins enough that it isn’t contested, I think we’ll all be happy. But, I am predicting a huge sweep of red across the entire US map with Romney getting at least 320 EVs.

  2. Brian
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    Lol @ “defying gravity” in Ohio. It’s easy to “defy gravity” when you have the polls holding you up. Unfortunately for Obama, the pollsters aren’t the ones deciding the outcome.

  3. Eric
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    The methodologies of many of these university and media-run polls are very flawed. Their likely voter screens are too loose. Most have between 80-95% of registered voters actually voting. Normally 65-70% of voters actually vote.

    It can get pretty complicated, but a simple way to imagine the problem is that these poorly run polls are more like registered voter polls than likely voter polls. Professional pollsters do a pretty good job, but media-run outfits are cheap and don’t screen voters like they should. If you make adjustments to the poorly run polls and treat them as RV polls, then their results line up well with professional organizations like Rasmussen, Gallup, Susquehanna, and Mason-Dixon. Rasmussen is actually skewing a bit towards the Democrats because he’s using a D+3 model nationally and applying that to his state results as well.

    Rasmussen’s party ID polling is actually showing a few more Republicans than Democrats out there. Gallup has confirmed this. I bet if Gallup were doing state polling then it would have Romney ahead in Ohio.

    Susquehanna has Romney leading Pennsylvania and Florida. Mason-Dixon has Romney up 7 in Florida and up 13 in Missouri. Media pollsters are junk and should be taken with a grain of salt. Outfits like PPP have an agenda.

    • Tom
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Excellent analysis Eric. This explains why the rcp averages for the states favor osama. This is yet another bit of the body of evidence with all signs pointing to a Romney win. Mitt-Mentum

    • jvnvch
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ve always considered Missouri a bellwether, and these polling results show how strong Romney is there:

      Missouri: Romney vs. Obama Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon Romney 54, Obama 41 Romney +13
      Missouri Senate – Akin vs. McCaskill Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon* McCaskill 45, Akin 43 McCaskill +2
      Missouri Governor – Spence vs. Nixon Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon Nixon 48, Spence 42 Nixon +6

      • Eric
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:16 pm | Permalink

        Missouri isn’t a bellwether anymore. It’s a red state now. States shift over time. McCain actually won Missouri despite losing nationally in 2008. Missouri is even more Republican today than it was in 2008, and it was more Republican in 2008 than it was in 2004. Missouri won’t be within 10 points on election day. Very likely it goes for Romney by 15.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

        McCain won Missouri 49.43 to 49.29. The state was about as purple as it gets in 2008. This poll shows Romney ahead by thirteen. That’s definitely red. And that’s what makes Missouri a bellwether still, in my eyes.

      • zang
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

        States change. New Jersey used to be a bellwether. No more. West Virginia used to be a reliably Democrt state. No more.

      • Eric
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

        When a state is tied but the margin is 7 points nationally, it’s not a purple state. Should Romney win by 7 points this year and Minnesota end up tied, that wouldn’t make Minnesota a purple state either. It’s where the state stands compared to the national vote.

        Good bellwethers right now are Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and Iowa.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

        Apparently we disagree about what makes a state a bellwether. Reliably red or reliably blue states are not bellwethers, in my opinion. Missouri was anything but reliably red last election. I consider any state that voted for Obama last time, such as my home state of Indiana, not to have been a red state, even though we were much more red than the average, by your definition of what makes a state red.

      • Blackcloud
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        A red state swinging decisively red is not a bellwether. Missouri was so reliably red last time out that it went for McCain despite his 7-point national deficit. That’s the antithesis of a bellwether. Eric et al. are correct on this. Missouri is no bellwether, and McCain’s win there confirmed its changing status. Indiana isn’t a bellwether, either, even though it went for Obama. No one thinks it’s going for him this time out, any more than they do Missouri will. States change over time. Just look at the electoral map from 1976 for all the proof you need.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

        Missouri voted for the Democrat two out of the last five elections, and almost made it three out of the last five. It is not a reliably red state, and never has been. This major shift to the right this year is significant, as it is most definitely a bellwether state. You are all free to disagree, of course.

  4. Todd
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Smart advertising move – http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/10/sunday_swing-state_newspapers.html#incart_river_default

  5. Mick
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here in Superior, Wisconsin, I can tell you that democratic enthusiasm appears to be way down in an area (Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Washburn Counties) that rivals Madison and Innercity Milwaukee as far as democratic strongholds are concerned. This is one of the few areas that Barrett actually did better the second time he faced Walker in the recall election (although Walker also got more votes compared to 2010 as well). During the recall, there were recall Walker signs all over the place. Yet, for whatever reasons, there is a drastic drop off in Obama yard signs compared to Obama 2008 and Barrett. There’s quite a few yards with Baldwin and local democratic reps signs, but no Obama signs. I’ve seen quite a few Romney/Ryan Yardsigns in yards that I didn’t expect to see them in. In 2008, I remember there were multiple Obama election offices and people canvassing door to door, now haven’t heard a peep this time around. I recall in 2008 you couldn’t go out in public to eat or do other activities, without overhearing a conversation (mostly positive) about Obama. I haven’t overheard any conversations this time around. During the Walker recall election, my mailbox probably had about two or three pro-Barrett or Anti Walker flyers; this time around it’s about 3-4 anti-Obama pro Romney flyers per day, and haven’t received anything supporting Obama or against Romney. Drive by the UWS campus, and unlike 2008, the students aren’t wearing Obama t-shirts and there isn’t Obama signs hanging in dorm windows. You may recall during the 2010 midterm elections, Congressman Dave Obey (D) who had held his seat since 1969 or so, declined to run, because he knew he didn’t have a chance. Congressman Sean Duffy (R) took the seat and for the first time since the 1960s a Republican Congressman won. I anticipate there is going to be decreased democratic turnout, increased Republican turnout, and there is going to be some democratic crossover vote.

    • fab4gal
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mick, the exact same thing is happening in Colorado. I’m assuming this is what is going on nationwide. In 2008 everywhere you went people were wearing “Barack The Vote” shirts, had bumper stickers and yard signs supporting Obama, everyone was starry-eyed. This year, it’s not even 10% of what it was. Even my moron neighbors across the street have a Romney/Ryan sign and I never expected that. The huge victory for Walker in the recall plus the fact that enthusiasm for Obama is next to 0 tells me Romney will take Wisconsin. Paul Ryan being from there doesn’t hurt either, I’m sure!

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

        Tons of Obama signs in my Memphis neighborhood last election. Now there is 1….Romney signs everywhere.

  6. Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Missouri senate race is likely closer. I live here, and there is a huge reluctance by many people to admit they are voting for Akin. i think that might translate to several points in the polls.

    I’m less confident about Wisconsin. The view from outside is tha there is a lot of fraud up there perpetrated by unions and students, often enough to sway elections in a state that is so evenly divided. Ohio is going to be a nailbiter too. Gotta hope the turnout models are underestimating Republicans.

    • wholefoodsrepublican
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      you convinced me to give $ to akin, cause I am aching to have a republican-run senate. i challenge everyone else to donate in the privacy of their online and < $250.

      ps. keith — perhaps you can do your analysis on the key battleground senate races: MO, WI, FL, PA, MA, CT, MT, ND, NV…when you find the time!

      • fab4gal
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

        I may donate to Akin, too. I thought the freak out over his rape comments were ridiculous. The VP can say the F word and the President can say bullsh*tter to a huge publication, but someone makes one ignorant comment and they act like he murdered a puppy on live TV, give me a break.

  7. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    from chicagoland….

    the local Crain (not Bain) News Alert/blot
    Those early voting figures continue to be reallllly peppy in the Chicago area, particularly in suburban Cook County, with officials predicting they’ll match their numbers from the presidential year of 2008 and its super-heavy turnout.
    With the first week of early voting drawing to an end, County Clerk David Orr’s office reports that 67,280 had voted as of midday Friday. In comparison, 42,800 voted in the first five days of 2008, in which early voting began a week earlier in October, and 63,000 in the second week of ’08, which corresponds to the same week this year. Either way, it’s up, perhaps driven by three very hot congressional races in Chicago’s suburbs.
    When it’s all over, Mr. Orr predicts the combination of early and mail voting will match the 2008 numbers.
    In the city, 64,746 had voted as of Thursday night, with lines at many polling places this morning, according to Board of Elections spokesman Jim Allen. New records have been hit, he added, with totals up 18 to 51 percent, depending on whether you use the first or second week of ’08 as the comparison.
    Mr. Allen attributes the gains to the fact that, unlike in some years, “most (voters) have had their minds made up for quite some time,” so there’s no reason to delay. In Chicago, that would be good for President Barack Obama.
    There are roughly 1.36 million registered voters in the city of Chicago.
    In DuPage County, where you’d think GOP nominee Mitt Romney would do fairly well, figures as of midday Friday were around 24,000, according to Joe Sobecki, deputy executive director of the county election commission.
    Voters are coming out at about or slightly above the same rates as 2008, he added, saying that the county is “on pace” to match its 2008 numbers.
    So much for apathy. Early voting continues all of next week.

    the congressional races alluded to, i think are
    Dold (CD-10, used to be Mark Kirk’s — tight race – heavy Jewish Democrat – Dold is great – got to keep him!),
    Walsh (CD-8, Duckworth’s margin is decreasing she’s at 50% …Walsh – Tea Party Duckworth has ties with Socialist Party and communists – this is Chicago 2012??)
    Biggert (CD-13, another Republican incumbent targeted by Dems and with redrawn district)

    • Dave
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      wholefoodsrepiblican (this handle cracks me up)…10-4 there good buddy — it must feel pretty lonely in there sometimes…:-)

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

        It’s funny, I love that name too. Just came back from Whole Foods myself (stocking up ahead of the storm). I always laugh when the people there chat me up … if they only knew my politics lol

      • Dave
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

        Well if wholefoods knows their customer base, I’d say the #1 rulle for a checkout clerk should be — no politics! it wouldn’t surpirse me in the least if the corporate mantra was “we hire democrat and sell to republicans (or conservative democrats at the least)” — especially when you take a look at where they build their stores.

      • wholefoodsrepublican
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

        and i listen to NPR, have the New Yorker on my iPAD, recycle, attend reform services, and am a university professor.

        i defy my demographic! if only i were gay too.

        interestingly, the CEO of Whole Foods (started in “keep weird” Austin, TX) had a WSJ piece against Obamacare…got tarred by the professional activists — but didnt cut down on the tattooed, body pierced employees or the prius-driving birkenstocks from buying their overpriced granola there.

  8. Mick
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Also, Watch Douglas County, Wisconsin during election night when they’re counting votes. It reports early for the most part, is heavily democratic, and the results typically are counted and reported long before Madison and Milwaukee. In 2000, Kerry 63.2% Bush 32.3% Nader 4.5%. In 2004: Kerry 65.7% Bush 33.5%. In 2008: Obama 65.93 McCain 32.63. Barrett/Walker 2010: Barrett 57% Walker 41%. Walker Recall: Barrett 64.4% Walker 35%.

    As you can see, almost two thirds, one third for the Democrat historically, although I think Obama benefitted from immense groundswell efforts in 2008. Assuming it’s “too close to call” and the networks are publishing real time vote counts, if you see Obama getting less than 66 percent in Douglas County, and depending how much less, you can get a fairly good read how things are going in the “enemies lair”, likely long before Madison and Milwaukeee start reporting in signifcant amounts.

    • Dave
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Unless they (democrats) corral and drag to the polls every college student who would or may be inclined to vote democratic, I don’t see how they match 2008 voter turnout. Bush has been gone for 4 years and so angst has subsided and Obama actually has a track record you can scrutinize (not that college students as a group do that…but still). They’ll be working overtime through their roledex of dead voter rolls to get the turnout they need to win with the “small but discernable” lead Axlerod says they have.

    • wholefoodsrepublican
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      you mean Gore 63.2% in 2000?

      • Mick
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, Gore, my mistake there.

  9. zang
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Colorado early voter numbers. Looks good, but it comes down to which way independents will go.
    http://www.timescall.com/news/ci_21862381/coloradans-early-voting-tops-half-million-mark

    • Dave
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I expect Obama will capture the dead independent vote 2 to 0.

      • Tom
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

        Dave, that sounds about right. How do you expect the felon and terrorist votes to go?

      • fab4gal
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

        We just removed 441 ineligible voters from our voter roles here in CO. Ohio removed half a million. Thankfully Republicans are keeping the reigns on so cheating will be minimal. With all the enthusiasm for Romney, they won’t be able to cheat enough to get what they need – it’d be millions upon millions of dead people voting and they would never get away with that with people actually paying attention to it this year.

  10. Dave
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    All indications are they’ll need to bring those in by a much wider margin 3, perhaps 4 to 0 in order to maintain Axlerod’s “small but discernable” lead.

  11. aanjheni
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Same thing here in Madison, WI. Streets that had oodles of O signs 4 years ago, have a rare one or two. I am talking – Fish Hatchery from Beltine to UW campus, there is ONE sign. On a ten block stretch of East Washington – NO Obama signs and ONE Baldwin sign. Dorm bldgs that are visible along Park St – zero signs in windows.

    • Dave
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How come there are so many people from WA state on this board? I know being a republican in king county is being a fish out of water but wow! And it makes you wonder how he’s up +12 there. Did the birkenstock liberals in Seattle and the youth vote suddenly lose their urge to cheer their guy on. Fortunately for Obama washington is reasonably safe. There’s a ;leaglize gay marrige measure on the ballot, the leaglize pot constituentcy will come out swinging come vote day and that should be enough for O to win. I think the dead can rest easy. Felons might be a little p.o’d since that means no vote for early parole deals.

      • Dave
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

        “UW campus”

        My bad, never mind the WA reference. University of Winsc not U of dub.

      • aanjheni
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

        LOL! I didn’t even think to make a UW distinction. 🙂

  12. Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    According to Real Clear Politics Obama’s lead in WI (2.3%) is greater than Romney’s lead in FL (1.8%) or VA (1.2%). But, hey, what do they know?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, both candidates have scheduled visits to WI this week (announced last week). I don’t see FLA at least on the schedule on the immediate future. It’s all about the MO and where the candidates r going. U have been following these things for a while now Pete…so u know…

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

        Except Romney is in Fla today..LOL.

    • Zang
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Problem with RCP is there are too many garbage polls being released to weigh down the average. Gravis just released a poll for VA showing it a 48-48 tie, with Romney winning independents by a margin of 58 to 31. Those kind of numbers defy credulity.

      • spottedreptile
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

        Isn’t Gravis one guy working out of the back of his truck or something?

    • Buckeye Bob
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Peter,

      In that RCP average in Wisconsin that you’re referring to, they’re including a poll about 10 days old that shows Obama 6 points up, and it’s from the same NBC/Marist folks that had been showing Obama up 5 nationally. Without that poll, Obama is up 1 point with the most recent poll even in Wisconsin.

  13. Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In 2008 RCP average of polls in several BW states seriously underestimated Obama’s vote. And Rasmssen was consistently too pro Rep.

    Examples

    OH: the RCP average was O+2.5, final was O+4.6, Ras was a tie (Ras bias of R+4.6)
    CO: RCP was O+5.5, final O+9, Ras was O+4 (Ras bias of R+5)
    FL: RCP was O+1.8, final was O+2.8, Ras was McCain +1 (Ras bias of R+ 3.8 AND got the winner wrong)
    NV: RCP was O+6.5, final was O+12.5, Ras was O+4 (Ras bias of R+8.5!)

    So much for the idea that polls skew for Dems or that Ras is the most accurate pollster.

    • Zang
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      So what you’re saying is that in 2008, the national polling was accurate, but the state polling was erratic?

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

        In national polls in 2008 Ras also had a R bias but smaller than in these BW states.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, it has to do with a wave election and figuring what proportion of D vs R of the electorate. Even Nate Silver got either NC or Indiana wrong with the Obama internal polls.

      I’m hoping you provide me with the Marist, CNN or Quninnapic data to show me how accurate they were.

    • Zang
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This time in 2004, Kerry was averaging a 2 point lead in Ohio.

    • Mick
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What were the dates of the polls in comparison to the election?

      • Chip Roehrig
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

        Those polls wert the last polls taken by ras within 2 days of the election. PPP was actually one of the closest on the state level. I did the same research a couple of days ago. You can look up all the 2008 polling with a quick internet search. Also remember that Gallup had Bush up 49 to 42 on this date in 2000.

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I doubt these polls were constructed expecting a D+7 electorate after an R+2 electorate in 2004, that’s what happens in a wave. Also, it’s no secret that Rasmussen’s state level polling isn’t quite as accurate as his national, but he did nail the national in 2008, he saw electorate shift in his party ID tracker that see’s a very different picture now then in 2008.

      • Zang
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

        And in 2004, many of the state polls overstated Kerry’s numbers, probably because the electorate became more Republican between 2000 and 2004.

  14. No Tribe
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Updated schedule appearances:

    Obama
    Tue/23rd: Florida, Ohio
    Wed/24th: Iowa, Colorado, Nevada
    Thur/25th: Florida, Virginia, Ohio
    Sat/27th: NH
    Mon/29th: Florida, Ohio, Virginia

    Romney
    Tue/23rd: Nevada, Colorado
    Wed/24th: Nevada, Iowa
    Thur/25th: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
    Fri/26th: Iowa, Ohio
    Sat/27th: Florida
    Sun/28th: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
    Mon/29th: Iowa, Wisconsin
    Tue/30th: Ohio, New Hampshire

    • Posted October 27, 2012 at 5:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Love this. Thank you

    • JGS
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interesting that Obama is spending 3 of his 5 most recent campaign days in Florida, Romney only today. Shows that Romney is confident and Obama is digging hard to try to alter the result. Also interesting that Romney spent 2 days this past week in Nevada, Obama none. Same logic, probably. Obama confident about NV, Romney trying to get some momentum in NV.

    • spottedreptile
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wasn’t the Virginia one cancelled due to Sandy?

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

        I think Romney was scheduled to be in VA tomorrow, and has canceled that and replaced it with OH. Nothing on the schedule for Obama tomorrow – interesting.

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

        Romney is coming back to CO! Whoo! I don’t know when or where though, but it damned well better be bigger than Red Rocks because that was ridiculous, with freeway exits completely closed off and people parking 4 miles away and walking just to be told they couldn’t come in. It needs to be at Coors Field or something this time. I didn’t think he was coming back to CO, but I think because he’s unable to campaign on the east coast due to the hurricane, rather than sitting on his butt waiting it out he’s coming here. 🙂

  15. Mike
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    WOW I just watched Justice with Judge Jennings at Foxnews and she called Obama and his administration LIERS for the cover up of LIBIA where those Americans heroes got massacred. GOD save the United States of America if Obama gets reelected.

  16. Mike
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 9:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Porchlight, Obama is too busy playing Golf tomorrow so he is not to be bather with a petulant election you know…..lol….lol……

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