Clark County Day 7 Early Vote: Republicans Strike Back

The Clark County early vote story continues to drive intrigue in Nevada.  The Obama campaign would love to put the state out of reach but Team Nevada answered the challenge on Friday with the Republican’s best turnout relative to the total early vote of any day over the last two elections.  Democrats cast 13,862 ballots versus Republicans  who cast 10,161. The Republican’s relative percentage of the Democrat’s vote was 73% — also its best performance over the two elections. Next week will be the big test for both parties but after a few days of nominal declines the GOP turned things around with gusto.  The key will be to continue closing the gap and maintain a rate of growth relative to Democrats that keeps them within striking distance statewide. Independents held their ground reminding both parties there is a sizable chunk of the electorate that can meaningfully alter the outcome of the election while the rest of us focus on party performance. Anecdotal, a Gravis Marketing survey released yesterday had Mitt Romney up 35-points with Independents in Nevada.   Just sayin …

The Clark County model

After a couple days of largely flat to sagging growth, Republicans shot up well past the model’s expectation at 73% versus the model’s 65%.  We won’t change any growth rate until after Sunday’s #s but if they can continue to rise over the weekend, they should be in great shape heading into next week. As a small hint if we adjusted the model to reflect the current growth rate it would shave over 10k off Democrats final margin from yesterday. The weekday average for Democrat turnout was 14,818 only 2.5% greater than our estimate of 14,446.  We will likely use the weekday average as the basis for our estimate of the expected ramp up in turnout next week as that reflects actual 2012 enthusiasm.

The current lead for Democrats in ballots cast stands at 37,935, down -10,366 compared to the same point in 2008. Interestingly when you look at the Republicans dramatically improved early voting pace at Day 9 in 2008 the GOP hit turnout of 211,151 and trailed by 56,298.  This year the GOP hit 211351 on Day 7 and trial by just 37935.  So they have shaved as much 18,363 off the Democrats margin through their dramatically improved performance.

Finally, as I wrote in the Washoe write-up earlier, from my source out west :

Just wanted to update you on Clark’s numbers. We should start seeing movement towards [the GOP] next week. The thing the press doesn’t pick up on is that most of the early vote locations are mobile so they move from supermarket to supermarket, community center to community center for a 1,2 or 3 day period. Starting today and next week we start getting locations in our strong areas so the results should narrow.

Something to keep an eye on going forward.

25 Comments

  1. Chuck L
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thank you for all your great analysis. Battleground is now one of ten or so election websites that I visit many times each day. Do you have internals for today’s CNN poll in Ohio? Are you an ND grad? I graduated from there in 1986.

    • Posted October 27, 2012 at 8:16 am | Permalink | Reply

      The only internals were the link I provided which weren’t much at all. Nothing really to dig into.

      And good to have a fellow Domer on board. Been a fund season so far. Going to be tough in Norman tonight, ND is a -12 point dog. But as the song goes, what though the odds be great or small ….

      Thanks for visiting and Go Irish!

  2. Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    What a difference a day makes, hey!

  3. Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am in TN and also visit your site many times a day. Keep up the good work.

  4. Christopher
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    Excellent analysis. I have been monitoring this site for the last few weeks and there are few peers vis a vis both the relative breath and depth of critical thought. I am in deep blue California, as a renegade conservative, so this site is much appreciated. FYI – even here we see a depressed Obama climate. Only one bumper sticker in three weeks of state wide travel. Simply perceptive I realize but noticeable. This compares with hundreds in 2008 – no kidding. I think voter turnout and enthusiasm will be in the mode of 2004 presidential and 2010 midterms. Keep up the good work!

    • Christopher
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:59 am | Permalink | Reply

      Quick clarification. That would be D turnout model for 2004 and R + 1 for 2010. Thanks again!

  5. Posted October 27, 2012 at 4:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    More kudos, too! There was some report today that while Obama is pulling back people from other states that the Republicans may be pulling back from Nevada, too, and I was interested to see the numbers. My guess is that not only do areas matter + days of the week, too. I’m also struck that Heller is polling so well and wonder if there are discerning Democrats in the mix that are voting for Romney but won’t “admit” it to pollsters but have no such inhibition about saying Heller. GOTV + GO R&R GO! 🙂

  6. hunter
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    You are doing great work in Nevada and I visit your website many times a day. I believe at the end of the day Romney is going to carry both Wisconsin and Iowa because of the demographics that are favorable to him. RCP has Obama at 201EV. PA (20), OH (18), MI (16), CO (9) and NV (6) would give Obama 270. So not only is Nevada key to Romney’s winning in November, but COLORADO is also. Why should I feel confident that CO will flip from blue to red in November? What numbers are you or anybody else seeing out of CO?

    • Dogfish
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      Hunter, no way Obama takes Colorado.

      RCP is including polling by PPP (which is a Democrat polling firm) and their polls consistently over-sample Democrats.

      If you look at the Rasmussen poll, it has Romney +4 at 50-46. Obama’s inability to hit 50% is a very significant indicator… for an incumbent that almost always spells DOOM.

      Romney takes Colorado.

    • Commonsenseobserver
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 7:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      Now, of course, CO indies, like WI ones, tend to be weird.
      But that’s why we have this campaign until Nov 6, rather than just cancelling it on the basis of polls.

    • Buckeye Bob
      Posted October 27, 2012 at 12:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I noticed that too about RCP suddenly having stats from an outfit called Purple Stratgies. I have not been able to find anything about them or any track record. What I have seen is they favor Obama in all their state polls. Likewise, the Kos group PPP has gone off the rails with their polls skewing wildly towards Obama versus the other polls. Remember PPP is the group that did a quick poll in the Missouri race after the Akin rape comments showing Akin in good shape. At the time, Rasmussen was showing Akin down, and Akin used the poll to show he could still win, so he wasn’t going to drop out. PPP is the most blatant pollster in manipulating numbers–had the Missouri poll +15R or so. By using the PPP continued outlier polls, the RCP poll of polls are skewed towards Obama. You have to check daily which polls RCP is using. It appears they switched Obama to North Carolina based on the latest PPP poll. That defies logic–I would say with an almost cetainty Indiana and North Carolina are the two states that are going definitely going to flip back to red this election. We’ll see in 10 days or so, but neither RCP or PPP are reliable indicators of the election trends.

  7. Dogfish
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    Same here…. I visit your site many times a day and enjoy/value your analysis, write-up’s and opinions. Thanks

  8. Posted October 27, 2012 at 7:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks for all your work. Hottest topic in my work place.

  9. TheWIZZ
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 8:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    Has anyone seen the Poll #’s from some group called Purple Strategies ??? Always pro=Dem/Obama results . All of a sudden RCP is placing the Purple Polls in their polling averages and then this skews the R & R numbers DOWN rather than trending UP in Voter polls just In SWING States. YOu can visit their web site by clicking on web links off RCP.

    • Posted October 27, 2012 at 8:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s where Nate Silver gets it right and wrong. He weights the importance of polls, though based on his own political lens. He doesn’t like Rasmussen, so he often will lessen its impact. But we ultimately have to look at which polls work – and even then it pays to be skeptical. I’ve found a fairly consistent trend over the past several cycles – that most polls under-represent the Republican vote, at least when GOP voters are interested. 2006 and 2008 were a bit different, but they were more of a wave. We have so often heard that we need low turnout for the GOP to win, yet that has not proven true. There are a lot of discouraged conservatives that don’t often vote. Many came out in 2004 to help Bush win. I expect something similar, except this time Romney has the independents by a wide margin and Democrats are actually more likely to see a lower turnout.

      Both Gallup and Rasmussen indicate that R+2 is very possible nationally. Rasmussen still weights in favor of Democrats slightly because, I think, he’s hedging. But R+2 and a 10 point or more lead with independents will mean a blowout – something in the 7-8 point range.

  10. John
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 8:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’ve only become intensely interested in this stuff recently and was wondering how RCP determines which polls do and do not get included in their averages, and why there are never or at best rarely any Rep leaning polls with (R) after them to help counter the (D) polls? Do republican pollsters not share their results or aren’t there any? The implicit bias resulting from this does seem to tilt the RCP averages quite a bit for the swing states.

  11. JGS
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 3:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2501

    The above chart seems to show Democrats up 29,899 in early voting, but down 586 in absentee ballots, for a total lead in favor of Democrats of 29,313. Those are statewide figures. In Clark County, the chart shows Democrats up 37,936 in early voting, and up an additional 1,850 in absentee ballots, for a total lead in Clark County of 39,786. This means that in the rest of the state, Republicans are up 8,037 in early voting, and up an additional 2,436 in absentee ballots, or a total Republican lead outside of Clark County of 10,473 votes. I am not sure how this compares to 2008, but the post above suggests that it is a smaller lead in favor of the Democrats by more than 10,000 votes measured at the same time before the election, and with the trend potentially being our friend if the next week is similar to the last week of absentee voting in 2008.

  12. Mike
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 5:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, the Democrats made the board of election to place a mobile voting place in the FSU at Fayetteville NC for a homecoming day. FSU is 97% black university………they are desperately…….what I am not understand is how the Board of election targets a single group……….

  13. rcl_in_va
    Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Earlier I mentioned a glitch in the 10/20/08 EV data (hope I’m wrong). If I’m right, the DEM to REP EV advantage in ’08 for the first 7 days was 43,648, Current DEM to REP EV advantage is 37,935. So the CC REP’s are 5,713 ballots ahead of where they were in 08, not 10,366 ahead of that pace.I have no absentee data.

    • Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      can u tell me where you are getting your 2008 #s?

      • rcl_in_va
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

        Did you get my link earlier? http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/Depts/election/Pages/ElectionHistory.aspx It’s just that one day 10/20/2008. Everything else is spreadsheet arithmetic.

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

        I must have missed it. Thanks for the link

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

        I’ll have to look into it. I have one eagle eyed observer in Nevada who checks on my models every day and he never said anything about my # being wrong so I’m assuming he would have said something. I’ll run it by him again. Thanks for the heads-up

      • rcl_in_va
        Posted October 27, 2012 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

        Take a look at the 2008 model you blogged way back on 10/21 at 12:15pm “Did the Dems …”. The data shown for 10/20/08 are pretty clearly not reasonable. That’s what jumped out at me when I started hacking a few spreadsheets on this stuff. Other than that I’ve used the 2008 data in your blog as is.

      • Posted October 27, 2012 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

        I see the jump, but early voting is such a new phenomenon anything is possible in my eyes

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