Give both sides credit for consistency, they are battling it out neck and neck in the early vote in Washoe County. For the second straight day the vote differential was essentially even with Democrats again nosing ahead by a handful of votes. On the day Democrats cast 2218 ballots and Republicans cast 2197 ballots, 99% of the Democrats total. There was a -35% drop-off from Thursday in the aggregate vote which did not occur in 2008 so I’m wondering if there was a local event or holiday that decreased the turnout. First snow day in Tahoe? Free garlic fries at Pluto’s? Where’d everybody go? The differential between Democrats and Republicans obviously remains about even but the Independent/Other category remains on the march up another 0.2pp. With each passing day the Independent vote increases in importance especially with Romney racking up gaudy margins among this group around the country.
With even results little changes in the overall picture. I’ll probably apply some major tweaks to the model over the weekend to more accurately reflect this year’s turnout ahead of next week’s ramp-up into the end of early voting. The aggregate differential is 1040 versus 1019 yesterday and -6900 less than the 7940 differential at the same point 4 years ago.