Another strong poll for Romney in Florida. The party ID was D +1 (Dem 40, Rep 39, Ind 21). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29). In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). The split seems OK but there are likely too few Independents. Of concern in the poll is Romney support with 21% of African-Americans. That’s simply not going to happen.
Florida and its important 29 electoral votes are all but in the Romney camp, according to Sunshine State News poll of likely voters taken mostly following the third and final presidential debate. But the parties still have a big challenge ahead in their ground games. Early voting begins Saturday in Florida. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pushed above the 50 percent mark in the poll conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24 by Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service. Of 1,001 likely Florida voters, 51 percent were ready to vote for Romney to 46 percent for President Obama. Only 12 percent said the recent debates had any sway on their opinion, with 40 percent of those individuals saying they switched from Obama to Romney and just 22 percent going the other way.
Meanwhile, the state, as of Thursday morning, had already received 1.05 million absentee ballots back from voters, of which 468,417 are from registered Republicans and 414,343 from registered Democrats, according to the Division of Elections. According to the VSS poll results, in which 50 percent of those contacted labeled themselves conservative and the rest evenly split as liberal or moderate, Romney is winning the argument about jobs creation by a 2-1 margin, and even on international issues by a 51 percent to 44 percent margin. Romney has a 15 percentage-point margin with men, with Obama having a 5 percentage-point edge with women voters. While Obama continues to win with young and black voters, he is underperforming from his 2008 victory with suburban, women and Hispanic voters. The poll also suggests that Obama may be losing some support in the black community, as 21 percent of the respondents identifying themselves as African-American plan to vote for Romney. Lee noted that while some polls using “live” pollsters have pushed Obama numbers above 90 percent among black voters, those using automated polls have shown a more diverse outcome. “This would suggest perhaps Obama won’t be on track to get 95 percent of the black vote this time, but only 90 percent or even less.”