Gravis Marketing has another poll where President Obama leads marginally 50 to 49 in Nevada but is getting slaughtered with Independents. I don’t know what to say about this poll. It’s all over the place.
In 2008 Obama won Nevada Independents by 13-points and carried the state by 12-points. In the Gravis poll we have a 48-point swing towards Romney among Independents and this poll is trying to argue Obama would have to win among the pure partisan Democrats and Republicans by 14-points under the 2008 level of Independents? I’m so incredulous I can’t even come up with an absurd enough Kate Upton scenario to reflect the ridiculousness of this poll. It does raise the specter of one important factor in the Nevada election. If Mitt Romney is leading with Independents by sizable margins (not even counting this wacky 35-point lead), then that Clark County Democrat advantage is greatly mitigated by both the increase in the Independent vote we are seeing as well as the dramatic swing in Independent support to Romney from Obama.
Party ID is D +9 (Dem 45, Rep 36, Ind 19) versus 2008 of D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 26) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). A greater party turnout advantage than 2008 when McCain conceded the state and Obama was campaigning unopposed down the stretch? Not happening. Look at the Independent total: 19%? It’s probably the largest growing segment in Nevada after two straight elections where it was 26%.
Nevada is a diverse state but not nearly the make-up Gravis is using in this poll.
- In 2008 the racial make-up of the Nevada vote was: White 69%, Hispanics 15%, Blacks 10%
- In the Gravis poll the racial make-up is: White 63%, Hispanics 20%, Blacks 13%
Maybe this will fly in David Axelrod’s delusional demographic make-ups but not in the 2012 actual turnout. The 6pp drop in White vote and 5pp increase in Hispanic vote simply isn’t happening. In the most generous reasonable scenario Hispanic turnout MAY reach 18%. I highly doubt that based on the steep drop-off in enthusiasm among this voting bloc, but it’s at least I the discussion. I have seen n one other than Gravis Marketing and SurveyUSA making up steep drops in the White vote for this election. As I have shown many times the White turnout in 2008 nationally was artificially low based on nearly 2 million White voters staying home. This year they are both motivated and enthusiastic so drop-offs like that are leftist fantasy turnouts.