Obama +1 in Nevada, Trails by 35 Among Independents — Gravis Marketing

Gravis Marketing has another poll where President Obama leads marginally 50 to 49 in Nevada but is getting slaughtered with Independents.  I don’t know what to say about this poll. It’s all over the place.

Independents

In 2008 Obama won Nevada Independents by 13-points and carried the state by 12-points. In the Gravis poll we have a 48-point swing towards Romney among Independents and this poll is trying to argue Obama would have to win among the pure partisan Democrats and Republicans by 14-points under the 2008 level of Independents?  I’m so incredulous I can’t even come up with an absurd enough Kate Upton scenario to reflect the ridiculousness of this poll.  It does raise the specter of one important factor in the Nevada election. If Mitt Romney is leading with Independents by sizable margins (not even counting this wacky 35-point lead), then that Clark County Democrat advantage is greatly mitigated by both the increase in the Independent vote we are seeing as well as the dramatic swing in Independent support to Romney from Obama.

Party ID

Party ID is D +9 (Dem 45, Rep 36, Ind 19) versus 2008 of D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 26) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). A greater party turnout advantage than 2008 when McCain conceded the state and Obama was campaigning unopposed down the stretch?  Not happening.  Look at the Independent total: 19%?  It’s probably the largest growing segment in Nevada after two straight elections where it was 26%.

Racial Demographics

Nevada is a diverse state but not nearly the make-up Gravis is using in this poll.

  • In 2008 the racial make-up of the Nevada vote was: White 69%, Hispanics 15%, Blacks 10%
  • In the Gravis poll the racial make-up is: White 63%, Hispanics 20%, Blacks 13%

Maybe this will fly in David Axelrod’s delusional demographic make-ups but not in the 2012 actual turnout. The 6pp drop in White vote and 5pp increase in Hispanic vote simply isn’t happening.  In the most generous reasonable scenario Hispanic turnout MAY reach 18%.  I highly doubt that based on the steep drop-off in enthusiasm among this voting bloc, but it’s at least I the discussion.  I have seen n one other than Gravis Marketing and SurveyUSA making up steep drops in the White vote for this election.  As I have shown many times the White turnout in 2008 nationally was artificially low based on nearly 2 million White voters staying home.  This year they are both motivated and enthusiastic so drop-offs like that are leftist fantasy turnouts.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 49
Undecided 2

38 Comments

  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:32 am | Permalink | Reply

    Yea, that’s what we need. A Nevada lead. And send us one from Ohio too.

  2. Eric
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    This poll prompted me to move Nevada from leaning towards Obama over to tossup status.

    I think Gravis is just a poor polling firm. Their numbers have been all over the map.

  3. Dogfish
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen just released a poll that shows Romney & Obama tied in Wisconsin at 49-49.

    This is big news for Romney. With all the recent Republican victories in Wisconsin (Republicans winning the legislature, Walker winning, Beating the Recall) one has to think that Wisconsin will go to Romney…. this is the first reputable poll that I have seen that shows Romney tied.

    Everything continues to move in Romney’s direction.

    • Eric
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      The internals in that WI poll have Romney leading with voters who are certain to vote and who are already decided and won’t change their minds. Those are 3 and 4 point leads in Wisconsin.

      Plus, Romney already leads in Iowa, so that’s more than enough to put him over the top without even considering Ohio where Romney also happens to lead. Minnesota is probably really close too.

  4. damien
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup is projecting 36R 35D 29I turnout in 2012
    NATIONWIDE

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      Rasmussen:
      RDI
      37 – 34 – 29
      About the same thing. Wait and see for the Oct spread.

      I really don’t get whatever argument is to be made that ,’12 wouldn’t follow the ’10 wave. Democrats just seem to have excised it from happening.

      • damien
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink

        what i dont get is how romney is ahead only three if rasmussen uses that model

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:56 am | Permalink

        Ras doesn’t use that in his national poll. He does a massive 15,000 a month survey to find out partisan ID and then uses a totally different, arbitrary D+5 or so to weight his national poll.

  5. No Tribe
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    Evangelical support for Romney is pretty high, should match Bush’s ’04 high with undecideds:
    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-evangelicals-20121026,0,7781678.story

    “As of early October, Romney was ahead of President Obama among white evangelical Protestants, 73% to 21%, according to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. That is the same percentage that Republican John McCain captured among white evangelicals in 2008, but below the 79% that President George W. Bush, a self-described born-again Christian, received in 2004.”

    Am sure it’s bumped up since then, and the 6% undecided favor Romney.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:39 am | Permalink | Reply

      No Tribe, you dig up the most interesting stuff. Either you are independently wealthy or on SSI 😉

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:50 am | Permalink

        The former 🙂 I told Keith, when I first started posting here, that I really was glad I’d found an outlet to come to where the lead blogger was really into it, and super analytical. Each cycle there’s someplace like this on the web.

        I really detest Obama, and I voted for him in ’08, can’t wait to see him get beat up. But that said, I call it as I see it.

  6. Neil in NC
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:39 am | Permalink | Reply

    Keith –

    What do we know about Gravis Marketing. This numbers are pretty wacky. Anybody know who these guys are? I don’t think there’s a “polling firm” credential out there. These guys may just be opportunists during an election that is flowing with cash.

    Neil

    • Dogfish
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink | Reply

      Neil, I was wondering the same thing. Based upon the work they have produced, it appears they are working out of a pull-behind trailer located in a shopping center parking lot somewhere.

      Definitely a low budget operation.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:57 am | Permalink

        Actually, I think that’s pretty close to what I read. A home address… one dude. the liberals freaked out on him about 2-3 weeks ago and dug into the personal of it and all. Funny thing is, Tom Jenson started out the same way a few years ago. It’s pretty cheap to do this type of polling.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink | Reply

      It’s a fly-by-night firm. Could be legit (as in not made up numbers), but they are not a firm to stick your neck out for in terms of credibility. It’s so cheap to do IRV polling, like $3-400 a poll, that anyone can basically do it if they set up the servers with the data.

  7. Dogfish
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:39 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen moves the Pennsylvania Senate race to ‘toss-up’ status as Casey continues to lose ground.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      Unless something throws Smith for a loop, this is over. Casey’s is the classic incumbent caught flat-footed.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    It’s mind boggling that liberals are still writing, even today, that Romney has no momentum. Mark Blumenthal, Nate Silver. They are focusing on crappy partisan polls by Mark Mellman and Lisa Graves instead of Rasmussen and Gallup. btw, Steve McMahon, another partisan pollster, who runs Purple Strategies, is going to release some polls today that favor Obama in the battleground states.

  9. No Tribe
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink | Reply

    Anyone following the House races?
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-republicans-will-hold-the-house/

    I have been in-line where they are right now. A 1-5 seat gain for the Democrats. I could be flipping that to 1-5 seat gain for the Republicans by next week.

    • Eric
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I haven’t looked at it too closely, but I have expected for a while that Republicans would gain a handful of seats largely due to re-districting and some Democratic incumbents retiring and being replaced by Republicans, especially ones that narrowly won in 2010.

    • Dogfish
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tribe, agree. Everything I see is that the numbers will be small (one way or the other)

  10. zang
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gravis strikes me as a fly by night operation.

    It is clear that Mitt is winning the popular vote .. So issue is, will there be an electoral college split? The closest we’ve come to having a split with a 3% lead was 1916. Wilson won the popular vote 49-46. The deciding state was CA, which he won by only 1100 votes.

  11. damien
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    keith seems to take every chance to mention kate upton…the man does have great taste :o)

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He has good taste. She has curves, and bones are for dogs.

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Settling a vital issue…the odds of Romney winning independents in Nevada by 35% and still losing the state to Obama are about the same as Kate Upton offering to go away for the weekend with Keith…

      …and Keith turning her down to spend the weekend doing macrame.

  12. Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    TCJ Research Romney 49 Obama 46 in Wisconsin. http://tcjresearch.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/tcj-research-wisconsin-mitt-romney-49-barack-obama-46-1019-1021/ (34% Democrat, 36% Republican, 30% Unaffiliated/Other)
    Romney leads with Indies by 2 and wins crossover votes by 2.5.

  13. indy
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Who is TCJ Research, never heard of them.

    • Blackcloud
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They also have a poll showing Romney up three in Ohio. I’d never heard of them before, either. I get the feeling that this is the election that will have everyone applying Gresham’s law to polling.

      http://tcjresearch.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/tcj-research-ohio-mitt-romney-50-barack-obama-47-1019-1021/

      • Blackcloud
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

        “TCJ Research is a Republican-backed polling group that launched in 2010. We gained notoriety (unoffiicially) as the most accurate House pollster of the midterm, with our 7 House polls trending to the Republicans by a slim margin of 1.2 points, on average.”

        http://tcjresearch.wordpress.com/about-2/

    • zang
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Never heard of them, but why isn’t RCP including them? They include PPP and every ridiculous community college that pukes out a poll.

  14. billyboy
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, yesterdays washoe county early voting D-3432, R-3396.

    • Brad
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bad day for Rs. You get the feeling that NV is slipping away…not that Romeny absolutely needs NV.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      yes, trying to work on them

  15. MikeN
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That’s still a 7% margin of error for the independents, so 95% chance of being 61-39 to 75-25.

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