More Minnesota Rumblings

But you guys knew that all along

85 Comments

  1. Brad
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is a big deal. By having WI and MN in play, it takes the pressure off of Team Romney to deliver OH. Fighting on three fronts is much better than being forced into a bottleneck of just one.

  2. Adam
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I knew it! I knew it! I knew it!! Do we know where yet? I’m guessing I35, suburbs of Minneapolis, and more Rochester area.

  3. TheWIZZ
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Brad – excellent point !….. Do ads in Mpls/St. Paul TV market bleed over into WI – markets ?

    • Brad
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think they would bleed into W. WI. Though I live in WA…so I’m sure there’s someone more knowledgable on that question than I.

    • Jeff
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, the eastern suburbs of MPLS/St. Paul bleed into WI.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      St Paul is 1 1/2 hours to Eau Claire WI.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes. The major TV stations in Minneapolis, KARE 11, WCCO, KSTP, etc. have Wisconsin viewers. Also, the university of MN has a lot of WI students, or at least did when I was there 4 years ago… I know young people favor O, but Mitt will get some of them too.

  4. dch
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    this is becoming like Chritmas morning times 10

    • wholefoodsrepublican
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      we still have to wrap it up and deliver the votes. each of us can play santa to get out the message and voters!

  5. zang
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I believe more than one pundit has offered the theory that Ohio was essentially poisoned against Romney. Ohio was the state that got the full brunt of Obama’s hundred million + unanswered negative ad assault against Romney over the summer. Other states, which did not get this assault, have been more responsive to Romney’s debate performances. That’s the theory, anyway.

    • Eric
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is just a myth. Over June, July, and August, the Romney campaign and allies spent $34 million on TV ads in Ohio. The Obama campaign and allies spent $31.3 million.

      Relax. We’ve got Ohio. It’s not going to be D+8. This is Ohio we’re talking about here, not New Jersey.

    • wholefoodsrepublican
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      thats a lot of $ blown by obama with negligible results, but then thats obama blowing loads of$ without results.

  6. Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Last night some people around here wondered if Romney was putting up ads in MN as a feint. Well, if it was a feint, Obama wouldn’t bother putting up ads in MN, because Obama knows he is going to win MN. Well, guess what? Obama putting up ads in MN proves something is going on in MN.

  7. cbr66
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This could also mean they don’t think they can win Ohio.

    • Tom
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Actually not the case. They are forcing obama to fight a larger war so he can’t concentrate on stealing Ohio.

    • Brad
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It could mean that, except if that’s the case, you wouldn’t see such a move until the last week of the campaign. With 11 days to go and early vote moving your way in OH, you wouldn’t make this move unless you were really sure the state was within reach. Team Romney has also been really conservative with their ad buys, so this smacks of a real move rather than a head fake or an act of desperation.

      • Brad
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

        ^ I hedged this below.

    • margaret
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They (Romney) are winning OH but it’s very close. This according to “internal” memos.

  8. Eric
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If it’s a small ad buy in Minneapolis then it could be to reach western Wisconsin voters.

  9. allthingsgeography1
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Not good news at all for Obama, but your analysis of the state Keith, plus my own and just watching the state’s evolution over the years (have family there), it’s not a massive surprise. If Obama has to put up ads in Minnesota to try to keep voters from sway against him and into the hands of Mitt Romney, it’s clear as day who’s winning the Red State/Blue State…it’s Romney. Minnesota could very well be the Indiana of 4yrs ago. I bet against Indiana turning blue 4yrs ago and came up wrong…I’m hesitant to say Minnesota will go red in 2012, but I may be wrong on that front too. He’s just getting killed with independent voters and it’s really impacting him in many states, including the less hardened blue states.

  10. Adam
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN is reporting it’s in the Minneapolis market.

    • Adam
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They’re saying it’s on only $30,000. BUT one interesting point from the CNN post…. “American Future Fund, has been on the air recently spending more than $1.5 million criticizing President Obama’s record and touting Romney.”

      • Adam
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink

        MORE, they say it reaches 5% of Wisc.

      • Brad
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

        hmm. $30k is pretty small. Would’ve like to have seen another 0 after that number. Maybe this is just a head fake.

      • Adam
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

        It is a small amount, but it’s also a 4 day buy. Saturday-Tuesday, unless I’m reading it wrong and it means through election day.

  11. beach91
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    GOOD, GOOD news.

  12. Adam
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gay Marriage measure on the ballot will help Romney.

    • AJ
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Latest local news poll show it losing. MN will not go red sadly . I live here.

      • Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

        It wouldn’t be a surprise if everyone thought it would flip 🙂

      • spottedreptile
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

        I would take local news polls with a very large grain of salt. That way you won’t be depressed.

  13. Dave
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It’s nice to see my independent brethern coming along for the ride..I can just claim I did it several months ago for Romney.

  14. Brad
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keep an eye on OR. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Romney go after this state too. High UE rate, lots of indies who have soured on the President after he carried it by ~14% and polls are around 6 to 7 % for O, but it’s relatively cheap to advertise in.

    • zang
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Oregon is vote-by-mail only. Bad state to make a late push for.

      • Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

        It may come to be that Oregon voters voted in large part .. after the 1st debate. If Oregon falls then even Democrats may rethink extended early voting.

      • Brad
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

        Plus you can then sub out NV (which looks more Obama likely right now) for OR, in which both are roughly equivalent in EVs.

    • Brad
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      True, but only 10-20%ish have voted so far. But yeah, you’d need to make that decision in the next few days.

  15. Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It appears the Romney + Republican team is engaged in a highly targeted campaign – meanwhile Obama is taking out $15 million loans to pay for advertising now on CNN and MSNBC in California … hmmm …. which is the best road to victory 😉

  16. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    here at reagan waiting for my flight back to chicago… you wouldnt know its 10 days to the elections. no obama t shirts. no buttons. no obama vests. people have drawn faces. like a wake… what a difference from a similar. flight back several wks ago.

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Great report. Don’t forget to come back and tell us what the folks look like when you land in Chicago. 😉

  17. Kevin
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t want to get hyped up on Minnesota, I mean after all, it’s Minnesota. Many of us were just kids the last time a Republican won Minnesota.

    There’s two schools of thoughts of this. One, Romney’s internal is showing something the rest of us didn’t see coming. Two, Romney is pulling a head fake, and trying to bait Obama into spending time and resource in a state he should have in the bag.

    Either way, it’s making these last 11 days very interesting.

  18. No Tribe
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Biden has come down with the 8th grade name-calling disease that Obama has lately.

    • Blackcloud
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You sure it’s not the other way around?

  19. Eric
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The small ad buy in the Minneapolis market just shows that the move is to reach into rural western Wisconsin. All that shows us is that both campaigns are really focused on Wisconsin. If they are trying to reach that few of voters, then it must be close in WI.

  20. todd
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Question~ by all accounts a pretty positive day for Romney in the national polls and great indy #’s in every state poll, why did his Intrade value free fall nearly 10 pts in the last few hours?

  21. Interested Party
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Watch for a stealth move on PA–this is a head fake. Casey and Smith are tied, with Smith up 3% without leaners. Casey is no better than 46% with 10 days left. Tells you everything you want to know about PA. They can’t move too early on PA, until early next week, when O has shot his wad and has no cash left for ads….

  22. MikeN
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is what annoys me about the campaign. We’ll go into a state if it’s tied? Maybe if they spent some money, they could make it tied!
    How about New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, Connecticut?

    • Dave
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      WA is toast for Romney. O+12 there. Plus they have a gay marrige intiative and pot legalization ballot measures that are doing well so that will bring out all the flaming libs. OR might be in play perhaps…

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

        Oregon is slightly less liberal than Washington, but not by much thanks to dominating Portland/Multnomah County. Oregon is going to be tough territory as well.

    • Brad
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You take what the electorate gives you….plus there’s still 11 days. In a few days, we could be talking about ad buys in Philadelphia which would touch N. NJ.

    • allthingsgeography1
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney ain’t winning those states. In my home state of Washington, It’s hard enough to get a Republican elected Governor (hasn’t been one since the mid-1980s) and our last Republican Senator Slade Gordon fell to Maria Cantwell in 2000. Former state senator Dino Rossi tried to become governor twice and then senator in 2010, but his antagonistic attitude towards Greater Seattle pretty much sent him to the firing squad all three times. Gotta cut the lead in Seattle and King County if you expect Romney to win there…even if the rest of the state goes blood red (which it pretty much did in those three races), that’s what has to be done and that’s a hard take.

      • Dave
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

        WA might get one this year

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

        Maybe…I actually like the Republican candidate, he’s one of the few Republicans I’ve voted for (Rob McKenna as attorney general). Although he’s not as union-friendly and my Mom who’s a local SEIU union representative doesn’t like him worth anything LOL. He’s probably the best chance WA has at getting a Republican governor.

      • zang
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

        You are correct. Dukakis won Washington, in the midst of Bush 41’s 40 state route.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

        And it’s only become rougher ground for Republicans since then. Not to say it isn’t impossible to reverse, but as Seattle has grown, liberalism has become more dominate over conservatism in Washington State. Bush 41 was the last Republican to credibly have a shot on the West Coast.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

        I should also mention, being Attorney General, he’s won by having weak losses in the Seattle Metro Area. He’s basically a Seattle Republican and has some moderate creds. So yeah, he could potentially survive a vote, especially if its a good night for Republicans nationally.

      • damien
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

        lets not get in to dino rossi…i think we know what happened there…”count till i win” christine

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

        Funny…I actually voted for Dino Rossi back in 2004 (my first election, voted Kerry for President). I found the recount mess a bungled pile of crap myself.

      • Dave
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

        Dino had a charisma problem…and Christine came across reasonably bright and informed…

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They may just be waiting, but I agree, you gotta go all out here pretty soon, next monday at the latest. What are they gonna do, end the campaign sitting on $50M?

  23. John
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Those two Univ. of Colorado professors with an election model predicting a Romney win at 320 electoral votes may really be on to something. A month ago that model looked like garbage. An excerpt from their 4 Oct update…

    “Our model predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered.

    Romney, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

    The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.”

    It is surprising that Iowa was predicted by their model to stay with Obama.

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t think their model ever looked like garbage. It was just too early. As Barone has said, this is 1980 in slow motion. Paul Rahe at Ricochet has been saying the same thing for months as well – a big Romney win, not a narrow one.

  24. No Tribe
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It’s like Groundhog day, but instead, it’s every dang poll!

    ARG has Obama up 2 in OH, 49-47. Romney up 21 w/ indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010). D+9 is just not going to happen.— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 26, 2012

  25. Dave
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Reuterts/IPos o+1

  26. Dave
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m sure you all saw this…

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/10/09/romney-will-win-in-landslide-las-vegas-oddsmaker-doubles-down-on-prediction/?intcmp=obinsite

  27. KN
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sorry gang, call me a cynic, but MN is the ONLY state that Reagan never won, not in 1980, not in 1984. The Land of 10000 Taxes does not want to surrender its path to socialism. Let’s focus on Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa and be done with!

    • Utah Libertarian
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, but WHY didn’t Reagan win MN that year? Maybe because it was his opponent’s home state?

      • damien
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

        and he still only lost by 4,000

      • KN
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

        But then according to your logic, Romney would be leading in Taxachussetts/Marxachussetts/Maosechussetts, and yet he’s not…Sorry I’m just being realistic, that’s all.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You need to read this if you haven’t yet:
      http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/19/election-night-surprise-why-minnesota-will-turn-red-on-november-6/

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Focusing only on OH WI IA will only generate stories that Romney is giving up elsewhere. No, I say expand the race esp. where it doesn’t cost much $ to do so. Put your opponent on the run and make him spend to defend territory that shouldn’t by rights even be contested if the other guy were actually winning. Both Obama and Biden are going to WI this weekend because it’s all tied up – and yet a month ago I heard Rs saying Romney shouldn’t bother with WI and should only concentrate on OH, etc….obviously, Team Romney didn’t listen, which is great news.

      • damien
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

        i think rudy in 08 showed people all about going after only one state

    • Dave
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Plus that was like 1980/84…times have probably changed some

    • Dave
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Plus that was like 1980/84…times have probably changed some

  28. Dave
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey, comment not being put in correct section…was for the Regan thread,

  29. Dave
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Need and edit and delete feature here…lol..it was in correct section….dang browser…. 🙂

  30. Rick
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In the Twin Cities, American Future Fund PACS has been running Romney TV ads during prime time over the last week or so. It seems as if this is more than just a passing glance. Obama campaign has radio commercials running.

    I see only a few “Obama-Biden” lawn signs in my deep-blue urban neighborhood. And even fewer signs in the mostly African-American neighborhoods in North Minneapolis. I think that Obama’s support of gay marriage is costing him the enthusiasm if not the votes of this constituency.

    You just get a feeling that something is happening here…and it’s not at all like 2008.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Gallup says Obama’s people will show up like last time. The problem for him is, our people will show up much more than last time, according to Gallup. They say the electorate may be R+3 this year. Yikes. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/26/gallup-2012-electorate-more-republican-than-2004

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

        Both Gallup and Rasmussen suggest a Republican plurality electorate. I may have to revise my forecast for the 2012 Electoral Vote count…

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

        Whatcha thinking Allthings? May not matter now CNN has called Ohio for Obama 😉

    • Kevin
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The far outlying sections of the Minneapolis television market bleed over into parts of Western Wisconsin. They’re not trying to make a run at Minnesota this late in the game.

  31. Freddy
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think Team Romney may or I think should, open up MIch, MN, and MN to go along with OH. I personally think Romney can run the table with IA, MN, MI, WI, PA plus Indiana, Missou, which are already in the bag.

    If it was not for Chicago’s fraud, Romney could carry Illinois. The firewall is crumbling.

    My guess is FL, VA and NC are in the bag and Obama has pretty much given up on those states. He may show up in VA but that is window dressing.

  32. Freddy
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Typo: I think Romney should open up MN, MI and WI to go with OH. If Obama has to defend all of them – he crumbles. Watch next week and this weekend.

  33. hunter
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    RC has Obama at 201 EV. He wins OH (18), PA (20), MI (16), CO (9), NV (6) for a total of 270 EV

    • Jan
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He won’t get CO.. And would be very surprised to see him get OH. Not to forget he’ll probably won’t get 4 votes from Maine. I’ve seen a poll somewhere the congressional race in Maine 2nd is close too (haven’t seen the internals)

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