Democrats Hold Steady in Clark County Early Voting

Clark County #s are in for Day 6 of early voting in Nevada and Democrats hold serve maintaining a solid lead. Democrats cast 14,969 ballots, a 0.2% day-over-day (dod) increase while Republicans cast 9434 ballots a dod decline of -3.0%.  Independents/Other continue on the march casting 5866 almost exactly equal to the prior day.  Overall the aggregate numbers of ballots cast declined versus Wednesday but both Democrats and Independent increased as a % of the total while Republicans declined.

The trend is most definitely not the friend of Republicans lately. It becomes increasingly important for Team Nevada to reverse this recent slide to keep Clark competitive enough to make up the difference elsewhere. Although it appears Mitt Romney is doing better with Independents, a small victory there won’t be enough if Democrats pull away next week when the turnout increases. As it stands the GOP is still doing dramatically better than 2008. The Democrats aggregate lead is 34234 ballots cast, 9321 fewer than the margin four years ago at this juncture but a redoubled effort will be needed to counter the Harry Reid/Culinary Union/Obama machine.

The Clark Model

The model held up OK with Democrat turnout only +3.6% greater than expected. The reduced performance by Republicans is more concerning as the model is predicated on the steady climb the GOP achieved relative to the Democrats in 2008. Thus far we are seeing stable Democrat performance as expected but a declining representation from the Republicans. This continues to lower the rate of expected growth and may warrant reversing this expectation absent better returns going forward. The new growth rate is 2.2%, down from 3.2% the day before. The model now estimates a Democrat advantage in early ballots cast of 72,467 — still down from the 2008 advantage 83,633 but progressively worse than prior forecasts.

31 Comments

  1. Neil in NC
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks for staying up late to post Keith. I believe our folks will show back up over the weekend. They were working today.

  2. Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    If Democrats keep turning out at 3% above their registration in Clark County, it’ll be over before election day. What people need to remember is that Team Nevada was set up by Romney and many Nevada candidates like Sen. Heller and Rep. Heck because the Clark County GOP (and state GOP) Central Committee is run by people who have outright said they WANT Romney, Heller, &c. to loose.

    That 34K raw vote lead is equal to what the Democrats had after the first full week of voting (including Friday). Things are looking VERY bleak. If things don’t start tightening up to a margin much, much smaller than the Democrats registration, Sen. Dean Heller will be defeated.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:31 am | Permalink | Reply

      My bad, The Democrats lead in Clark County after the first week of early voting was about 45K.

    • Zang
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      Heller has been running ahead of Romney. Brian Sandoval has steered clear of Romney but has been actively supporting Heller. I think we get WI before NV.

    • Brian
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:58 am | Permalink | Reply

      Lemme guess…..Paulbots?

  3. Zang
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Okay, it is late, I’m tired and maybe I’m missing something.. but why examine Clark county in isolation? In taking the state as a whole, Republicans are running behind by just 20,000 votes, which would’t be hard to overcome on election day.

    http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491

    • Yong
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 3:20 am | Permalink | Reply

      Good Point. Say, keith, you should paste his data and update daily. 20k from 24th. Easier to work with by election day, no?

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      you have to go back and read my first posts on Nevada early voting. Clark County will account for 67% of the overall Nevada vote. Washoe will account for 19% of the overall vote. The rest of the state only accounts for 14%. By looking closely at the first two counties we cover 86% of the vote.

      • Jan
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

        Speaking of Washoe County, not a very good day yesterday:

        Thursday, Oct 25 = 8,347
        Dems = 3,432 Reps = 3,396

        Hopefully the Indy’s break to Romney by the margins suggested in today’s polls..

  4. TheShaz
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 7:23 am | Permalink | Reply

    I have to ask. These are REGISTERED DEMOCRATS that voted and REGISTERED REPUBLICANS that voted correct? It assumes all Registered Dems voted for Obama and Registered GOP voted for Romney. No mention of INDEPENDENTS and what percentage of Registered Dems flip over and become Blue Dog Dems or Reagan Democrats.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      that is correct. This is why I don’t like early voting. If you read my first pieces on Nevada early voting I stipulate all of that.

  5. Bunker It Up
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 7:51 am | Permalink | Reply

    General question. I am concerned with Intrade this morning which has Ohio and other states up for Obama. With good polls out for Romney , including Wa/Po yesterday, what would drive these numbers Obama’s way? Keith , any thoughts here? Yes, I realize InTrade is not a poll but it has proved somewhat accurate in the past. Thanks for any feedback.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      the buyers and sellers on Intrade are predominately European. We can’t bet on those markets. Over there Socialism is a legitimate form of government so they cannot understand why Americans do embrace everything about Obama and his policies that bend towards Socialism. Culturally they don’t understand why Americans reflexively recoil at the thought of that type of Government. Over here Socialism is a 4-letter word, over there it is a way of life. Free healthcare? More social welfare? Global warming prevention? Who could be against that? America today is rejecting Obama but the Europeans betting on Intrade only see it through their prism and keep betting incorrectly as to the direction America is choosing.

      • Tom
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:46 am | Permalink

        My wife has a friend who was born in Norway, but became an American citizen about 25 years ago. Her parents still live in Norway. On a visit here to America we were having a conversation about snowmobiles, and her parents mentioned that the Norwegian govt has to give you permission to own one there for various reasons, all “environmental”. Of course some of us informed them that anyone can purchase a snowmobile here, and they were appalled and asked “why does someone even need one?” This is the European attitude that Keith mentions.

      • Keith W
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:19 am | Permalink

        What do you mean we can’t bet on it? In the literal sense? Because I deposited $5k a month ago and have played Romney heavily in NC, VA, OH, FL and Nationally. He wins all of those and I double my money.

      • Jan
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 11:27 am | Permalink

        I agree on that analyss on Europe. Living in the Netherlands, i´ve seen people jump on the Obama bandwagon in ´08 without have a clue about american politics. Since then the Dutch haven´t been informed much apart from some rudimentary liberal coverage of Obamacare, the Tea Party etc. Basically, all the news we´ve got about this election has also been through a liberal media filter. So one cannot blame people over here for having an uninformed skewed image, as only people who are really interested in politcs and tend to be conservative take the trouble to look beyond the stories presented. The media here still firlmy believe Obama having a nice edge. So if Intrade is indeed predominantly European, i´d say it will not be accurate for a while..

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:39 am | Permalink | Reply

      What is with people and Intrade? Did you trust traders when they were bidding up the price of securities based on mortgages?

      • Bunker It Up
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:45 am | Permalink

        Just asking is all. It had been somewhat accurate in the past. I have followed it in the past elections . Thanks for the input- and I did know we can’t bet on it here.

  6. No Tribe
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 7:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/early-vote-update-gop-brings-in-new-voters-democrats-taking-from-e-day-voters/

    Nevada is going to be close. But the above chart shows that the Democrats are using up 4/4 voters to run up the score, and the GOP less so, and finding low propensity voters more.

    http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491

    Washoe county is going Romney, and is one of the 106 counties that matter. R’s have closed to within 1000 votes before election day. The other NV county on the list is Carson City– one of the 106 counties to go for Bush and Obama. It has a large Romney lead at this time.

    I will have to check, or someone else can, about the absentee ballot tally in NV in 2008, but I don’t recall McCain being tied with Obama. 20k-20k, Republicans actually have a small lead.

    The more one looks here, the better it seems.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:16 am | Permalink | Reply

      No Tribe this will be key. If Obama is cannibalizing his voters as that memo suggests Nevada will remain in play regardless of the Clark County early vote margin

  7. Ranjit
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    On election day, it will be different than 2008 ! There will be more republicans and also lot of independents for Romney. Also, the number of democrats will be less and we can overcome the number. In north carolina, when we knock doors, there are lot of Republicans who are adamant to vote only on election day ! Right now, go knock the doors, make phone calls, take someone to the polls, visit your local GOP head quarters and if possible, visit your neighboring battleground state and keep it going !

  8. johnn
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t get why be adamant about voting on election day, you know who you gonna vote for never know what’s gonna happen.

    • Bunker It Up
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 10:31 am | Permalink | Reply

      Tradition to vote on election day. I put on my suit and election tie. I know the local poll workers there. It’s American for me to vote on the actual day. I think may Republicans feel that way in small towns.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 10:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      Because you are standing up with well.. now only 60% of the voters, and saying this is what makes us great. If you duck in after work 2 weeks early it doesn’t give you the same “I am apart of something” feeling.

  9. Medicine Man
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 8:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    Early Rassmussen numbers: Romney holding steady. R 50 O 47. Swing state R 50 O 46

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      Word is Ras actually moved to ~D+6 today to keep it a 3 point race, and Obama had a “good” polling day the day after the third debate, which means tomorrow, assuming a steady day, whould be 50-46 with a D+6 sample. Wow.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 10:00 am | Permalink

        Source? Doesn’t sound plausible. He may change his ID a point or two usually monthly, but it would but towards a R model since enthusiasm is on the republican side.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 10:09 am | Permalink

        Would* This is per Numbers Muncher. Ras seems to be tweaking his models almost daily now to “even out” trends.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 10:16 am | Permalink

        K. Numbers Muncher has more stripes than me. I do have the Rasmussen Premium, but have to do work in between compulsively checking battleground watch..lol.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink

        I’m in the same boat here man, knowing when to check for all the daily trackers etc. If Ras really is having to weight up that high to show a close race when his normal Party I.D tracker is showing something completely different and Indy’s are breaking for Romney by anything like 8%+ we are seeing, maybe I am crazy but nationally I don’t see why this couldn’t be something like a 53R-47O national contest. If Gallup moves toward Romney it would lend itself to this.

  10. rcl_in_va
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Let me say first that I am firmly in the RR camp! I live in VA and see far more RR signs than OB and am hopeful for our state. I’m a nervous Nellie (actually my grandmother’s name) so even 269 wouldbe welcomed news indeed. That said I’ve been looking back at the CC 2008 stats. I see that the DEMs came out of early voting with a 82k ballot advantage, (not 86k). Translating ballots into votes is the trick. Perhaps I’m very wrong, but the country is as divided on party lines asI have ever seen. A working thesis is that the DEM get all the DEM ballots and the REP get all theirs or that the cross over evens out. That leaves the other/independet vote. (which was a lot; 17.4% of ballots!!). If the early voting percentages in CC were the same as the final vote percentages then in early voting 38% of the independents went DEM, 49% went REP and 13% went for Nader, No Vote for Pres, Mickey Mouse, etc. That was surprising to me. Backing the final CC vote percentages into the early voting numbers gives the DEMS a 74k vote advantage at the end of early voting 2008, not an 82k ballot advantage. The hill to climb in Washoe and the rest of the state is less, but it didn’t get done by a long shot. However, step forward to 2012. Independent/other is up to 19.4%. I find it hard to think that the independents will vote in larger numbers DEM to REP than in 2008 (but I do not know a whit about NV; in VA I’ll take your bets). If true then in early voting in CC the independents will add 38% or less to the DEM vote and 49% or more to the REP side. Funny, but that’s the 11% spread I read about earlier today in the 2012 vote.Guess that’s the good news. The bad news is that on election day in CC in 2008 we may have had 10k fewer votes to overcome in early voting than we may have thought, but we still lost by around 50k.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: