Clark County #s are in for Day 6 of early voting in Nevada and Democrats hold serve maintaining a solid lead. Democrats cast 14,969 ballots, a 0.2% day-over-day (dod) increase while Republicans cast 9434 ballots a dod decline of -3.0%. Independents/Other continue on the march casting 5866 almost exactly equal to the prior day. Overall the aggregate numbers of ballots cast declined versus Wednesday but both Democrats and Independent increased as a % of the total while Republicans declined.
The trend is most definitely not the friend of Republicans lately. It becomes increasingly important for Team Nevada to reverse this recent slide to keep Clark competitive enough to make up the difference elsewhere. Although it appears Mitt Romney is doing better with Independents, a small victory there won’t be enough if Democrats pull away next week when the turnout increases. As it stands the GOP is still doing dramatically better than 2008. The Democrats aggregate lead is 34234 ballots cast, 9321 fewer than the margin four years ago at this juncture but a redoubled effort will be needed to counter the Harry Reid/Culinary Union/Obama machine.
The Clark Model
The model held up OK with Democrat turnout only +3.6% greater than expected. The reduced performance by Republicans is more concerning as the model is predicated on the steady climb the GOP achieved relative to the Democrats in 2008. Thus far we are seeing stable Democrat performance as expected but a declining representation from the Republicans. This continues to lower the rate of expected growth and may warrant reversing this expectation absent better returns going forward. The new growth rate is 2.2%, down from 3.2% the day before. The model now estimates a Democrat advantage in early ballots cast of 72,467 — still down from the 2008 advantage 83,633 but progressively worse than prior forecasts.