Dead Heat in Wisconsin, 49 to 49 — Rasmussen

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Wisconsin all tied up at 49 and Romney is heading there Monday:

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.   This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama carried Wisconsin by a 56% to 42% margin in 2008.

In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his latest weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%. Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

Among the 90% who say they’ve already made up their minds whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 48%. Romney has a six-point lead over Obama – 50% to 44% – among all voters in the state when they are asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy. When it comes to national security, the candidates are almost tied: 48% trust Obama more, while 47% have more faith in Romney. This shows no change from a week ago and is comparable to voter attitudes nationally.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 49
Other 1
Undecided 2


  1. jvnvch
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “Among the 90% who say they’ve already made up their minds whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 48%.”

    There’s the key.

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Which implies leaners are skewing 3-to-1 for Obama, which seems very unlikely.

      Even better, the 96% “certain to vote” go 51-47 Romney. Which means the 4% not certain to vote are 100% Obama?

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

        In an alternate universe, perhaps.

  2. TheWIZZ
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ryan will be a Factor is pushing R&R OVER the top to a Victory here. 🙂

  3. Tom
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    DNC spokesman says “obama will win Ohio”. Much like when a sports owner says “Coach’s job is safe”. Kiss of death. Mitt-Mentum

  4. zang
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ARG poll of ohio. Obama + 2, +9% Democrat.

  5. zang
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ^^ oops, the Topline is on the website, but link takes you to an old poll

  6. Di
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith – This is such a valuable site for better understanding the conditions on the ground. And I’ve already seen some inklings of this in the comments, but would you see an expanded role for your blog in terms of giving us foot soldiers concrete ideas of how we can offer help in these battleground areas? It would be great to be able to know for instance, where we could make some crucial monetary donations, or what precincts could use help making phone calls or ringing doorbells, driving voters to the polls, etc. in much more actionable terms. For we working folk, we have only two weekends left to jump in in any way we can to help move things our way, and for those of us new to this (as I am), it would help to know the best way to help. I am in a battleground state (Virginia), and in a battleground county (Albemarle) and am planning to hit the pavement this weekend, as well as make phone calls. But, I was thinking in some of these super tight places, if your blog could serve as a clearing house of sorts to get the troops deployed in the smartest ways possible, that would be huge. I’d also like to know which PACs to give money to that would be advertising in these super tight counties to make my dollars count, and since you’re aware of the buys, that is helpful. This is just a thought, and may be in effect what’s happening anyway, but your blog could really help with the ground game. What do you think? Thanks for your great work!

  7. todd
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama pulling troops out of Florida & Virgina in favor of a full press in Ohio. Conceding two important states and the new Benghazi fallout is not a great news cycle for the democrats going into the Sunday talk shows. Even better, they are calling for terrible weather here in Ohio over the next week. Less than helpful in getting low propensity voters out.

  8. Brad
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romeny +21 with indies and losing OH by 2? I don’t think so.

  9. Tom
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup back to R 51 O 46

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Which means the Tuesday polling data that narrowed it was an outlier and the newest data is trending larger to Romney to counter it.

  10. novahockey
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply


    They left our guys out to dry.

    • Rick
      Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Very sad day. This regime must be voted out.

  11. zang
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Data from new arg Ohio poll now posted. Internals are ludicrous. Romney has 20 point lead with indies, trails by 2. What’s going on? Are Republicans just responding to polls less, or do some pollsters have bad call lists?

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Republicans usually respond less to the polls. Yes.

    • Posted October 26, 2012 at 5:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      what was that poll the other day with the statistic they placed more than 35,000 calls to get an 1,100 person response sample….3% answer/response rate. That is what pollsters are seeing across the country. You have a select few pocket of Americans who will answer polls.

  12. Kevin
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just heard that Joe Biden is going to be holding two rallies in Wisconsin in the next few days.

  13. Kevin
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Joe Biden showing himself off to be one of the dumbest Vice Presidents we’ve ever had.

    From his rally in Oshkosh Wisconsin.

    “But you can’t erase what you’ve already done, they’ve voted to extend tax cuts for the very wealthy, giving a $500 trillion dollar tax-cut to 120,000 families.”

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