Winning the Battleground News Cycle — Toledo, Ohio

This is on the front page of today’s Toledo Blade. Which campaign do you think these headlines say has better solutions for Toledo? (h/t Greta)

And below the fold:


  1. Jon
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like local media is starting to abandon Obama.

    How long till NYC and DC get off the band wagon?

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      NYC is bitter clinging till the end.

  2. Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Is Toledo GOP country or dem country?

    • Eric
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink | Reply


    • Todd
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Toledo is much like Cleveland..maybe a 60-40 split favoring Dem although recovering economically much more slowly than Cleveland. On the topic of the media, does anyone find it interesting that today seems to be the first day that potential democratic scape goats are being named and CNN is running a piece about Obama losing the “white vote”? Hedging their bets a bit more than before?

      • Dave
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

        I got the same sense too. I sense media more openly presenting both sides the past couple days too. But in the end, there is no escaping their track record. NBC, ABC and CNN should all be branded dem propaganda sites. God knows they’ve given enough free air time to this president (talking points and all). CBS too but to a lesser extent. When you read a well-balanced news report that presents both sides written without subjective judgment and analysis, or slanted to one point of view, as reports should be then it’s like a breath of fresh air.

        There was that article linked to at RCP as well in the NYT about Clinton hurting Obama. Wonder who coughed up that info for the paper?

    • Brian
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lucas County is one of the most liberal spots in Ohio. Obama won it by 31 points, Kerry by 21, Gore by 18, Clinton by 25 and 18, Dukakis by 8. Reagan won it by 1.5 in 1984 and 0.7 in 1980.

  3. Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A clear plurality of Americans feel their lives would improve if Romney is elected. Spread this around.

  4. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

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  5. Eric
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The exit polls are going to be unreliable on election night. Check the story out. They don’t say that specifically, but they are going to be doing phone calls for exit polls. Very unreliable because there is no way to confirm that the person on the phone actually voted. The polls going on now are already over-stating who has really voted early. We aren’t going to be able to trust exit polls on election night. Just something to keep in mind. Wait until the actual results come in.

  6. Bunker It Up
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Liberal lawyer and Democrat I know in Toldeo told me yesterday that Dem sources there see Ohio as too close to call.

  7. Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    again call me a cynic but I think a lot of this boils down to some of the media portraying Obama as all hope lost losing…only for the phoenix rising win on election day story that Americans trust him, believe in him want to give him more time, blah blah blah.

    Sorry dark today

    • Porchlight
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I can relate, but really, think of the high risk involved in that strategy. People want to be associated with a winner. It is very risky to let your candidate be portrayed as a loser, especially an angry one, even if you have an alternate storyline in mind for later. You risk people believing the first story and hitching their wagon to the other guy.

      We saw some of that in the primary with Obama v. Hillary. Once Obama had the winner’s aura, Hillary was old news. That’s why the media are tamping down OH coverage so hard. They know that once it even beigns to look like Romney will take OH, Intrade will go Romney and it will be all over.

    • Ron
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s not the media portraying Obama as losing, it’s himself doing it. He reminds me more of Bob Dole in the closing days of his struggle against Bill Clinton, angrily asking “Where’s the outrage?” He looked nasty as hell in that third debate.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “Romney Victory Effort Raises Over $111.8 Million From Oct. 1 To Oct. 17, 2012”

    Wow. How about that!

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      $169M on hand. They could easily raise another $100M between now and election day. Spend it!

      • NHConservative
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

        That will buy a few ads and put feet on the street.

      • William Jefferson
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

        Fascinating that I got a call from them today, begging for more money! I said “Your press release said you had over 160 million dollars!” The young woman said they needed more for “swing states, like Pennsylvania.”

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

        “Swing states, like Pennsylvania”? Love it.

      • NHConservative
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

        Regarding PA, the RNC called me the other night and also referenced PA. They said they were up by 4 and wanted me to donate $65.00. I obliged.

    • NHConservative
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I thought I was done contributing, but after reading this, I just sent him some more.

      • Dogfish
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

        I know the feeling… I have felt like I have finished making contributions, but then I get another email requesting more and I usually concur.

  9. margaret
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A telling comment from the MSM.

    “. . . this is not ’08,” NBC’s Brian Williams said to Chuck Todd this morning on MSNBC. “These are not the crowds, this is not the candidate; he’s an incumbent looking for reelection. The country has been though a financial shock and we’re in kind of an outdoor park, courtyard, it’s hard to say any of this with clarity, with surety, but last time this could have been 50,000 people and today, I think, we’re pushing 5 (thousand). It’s just a different time, a different campaign. They are slugging it out. It really will be hand-to-hand in the battlegrounds.”

    • novahockey
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      if it’s hand-to-hand, then fix bayonets.

    • mchlgregg
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s funny because once the word got out that Obama’s crowds were low, Luke Russert from MSNBC retweeted this:

      RT: @Ryanobles JUST IN: Official crowd count at @BarackObama #RVA event: 15,000 according to the Richmond FD.

      I guess, desperation comes in many forms! ha ha ha!

      • Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

        i just saw some pics posted on other forums from richmond but It was probably not 15 but over 5,000 probably close to 10,000. So not too much exaggertion

  10. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    How about this one (careful not to have anything in your mouth when you read to the end) from probably the worst pollster out there, Marist:

    One of the great advantage of exit polls is you don’t have to worry about who voted. You don’t have all of these ‘likely voter’ issues that you have now,” said Lee Miringoff, a pollster at Marist College. Gawiser noted how the minds of voters can change, even up until the last possible minute. “It’s a story we want to be able to tell on Election Night and we want to be able to tell it accurately and rapidly,” he said. “I really don’t think it’s much different than any other story we tell.”

  11. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen would have to be terribly wrong here for Obama to win. But you can look at it, and its been strikingly right with ’10, ’08, ’06 and ’04

    It predicts a huge Romney landslide ala what happened in ’10

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Amazing that Ras is weighting his national poll 40/36/24. 40% Democrat!!!

  12. zang
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Check this out, now Obama wants to question polls:

    They’re really pushing back on the notion that they are the underdog. I think they realize that Obama is like an overvalued stock… once the bubble bursts, it won’t be pretty.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Another big tell:

      When the person behind starts talking about the polls being wrong…

      • Todd
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

        maybe it’s working.. The PPP poll in NC that had the candidates tied(really?) now pulls that state away from Romney in RCP and back into toss-up status. Thus -13 from yesterday for Romney.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

        No, it’s baked at this point. People have heard enough of polls saying either candidate is going to win. Among the voters that are in the middle deciding, it’s just a wash. Besides, if there’s one poll that actually does get through, it’s Gallup’s national poll, and Romney has been ahead for over a week straight.

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

        Not only ahead, but at 50 or higher.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        Haha, RCP pulled NC back into toss-up today over…wait for it…a PPP poll. I’m going to remember this election the next time someone puts RCP in my face.

  13. M Timer
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “And on top if that most of the Party ID disparity can be silly explained by prior Rs calling themselves Is (but still voting R). The Tea Party effect, if you will.”


    I responded to a comment you made yesterday on this topic. I am putting this here in hopes that you’ll see it because I would really be interested in your answer.

    Where is the evidence that this “Tea Party effect” exists? I grant you that as conjecture is seems plausible but shouldn’t there be some evidence from the 2010 elections/polls that there are more faux-Independents on the Republican side than on the Democrat side?

    Also, why doesn’t this effect show up in polls that push Independents to disclose their leanings, like Marist does? If this “effect” is anything more than a myth I think we would see artifacts of its existence once Independents are pushed to disclose leaning preference, no? Here are the most recent Marist polls for Battleground states. I show what happens to the party ID once Independents are asked to disclose there leanings…

    Florida – D+4 becomes D+6 (Is drop from 29 to 10%)
    Ohio – D+11 becomes D+7 (Is drop from 29 to 8%)
    Wisconsin – D+5 stays D+5 (Is drop from 40 to 12%)
    New Hampshire – D+0 becomes D+5 (Is drop from 49 to 11%)
    Virginia – D+2 becomes R+1 (Is drop from 40 to 12%)
    Colorado – D+2 becomes D+6 (Is drop from 32 to 9%)
    Nevada – D+7 becomes D+5 (Is drop from 30 to 9%)

    Where are all the Tea Party members disguised as Independents??? I don’t see them showing up in this or any other data (Marist is not the only pollster that does this)…

  14. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Based on the average of the national polls, here’s what we’ve seen in the past few days:

    Oct 22nd–even
    Oct 23rd–+2 Romney
    Oct 24th–+1 Romney

    Conclusion? Well, if you are Nate Silver, it’s that Romney’s momentum has stopped because Obama gained a point after losing two>!>!?

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      his point is yes he has not gained in any state polls since that bump. Both candidate are kind of stuck. Romney did gain in the ABC poll, IBD poll, etc yesterday. He has been at or above 50 in Gallup for close to 2 weeks.

      The issue still lies with the information as we have it and that is as of right now the Average of polls does show a small national win for Romney (their claim back by huge margins in the south) but a loss in the electoral college because he is behin in Ohio, NH, Iowa, Colorado, etc etc ect

      I tend to agree in the sense I will not get my hopes up or be really optimistic until the RCP average for Ohio flips to Romney…same with NH, Iowa, Colorado, NC, VI, etc. This is still, despite the momentum, Obama’s race to lose

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

        Well, I have a slightly different method, that we can look at the last poll number for Obama, and extrapolate from there. That basically, if Obama is less than 49 in any state, it’s probably tied up, less than 48, he’s likely to lose, and less than 47, he’s sure to lose. But that’s 10 days away.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

        Shane, I think Colorado is in the bag, based on the huge GOP advantage. If Obama goes back to the state I’ll reconsider it, but now, this is the current map. Hard to see how to view this as Obama’s to lose:

      • Keith W
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

        It’s virtually a mathematical impossibility that a Republican could win the popular and lose the EC because of how many votes democrats bank in large urban areas. In the 2000 election, Gore won the popular by 550,000 but he ran up a margin of about 3 million in CA and NY. So unless those states trend red or you have a viable 3rd party candidate, it’s just not going to happen.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, WaPost comes out with a Romney +3 poll. Nate Silver once again is the contrary indicator for momentum. Telephone polling for Romney today one of is best days ever.

  15. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    TIPP poll
    This is a 7 day rolling, and could swing over to Romney once the big Obama days fall off. By this weekend, could be +R

    D1 – O+2
    D2 – O+3
    D3 – O+2
    D4 – O+4
    D5 – O+5
    D6 – O+3
    D7 – O+2

    • JP
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Why are the numbers so different?why would they change to R+?

      • Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

        Day 1 – 7 showing Obama’s lead. He is theorizing that by this weekend Romney could perhaps take the lead in this poll.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

        Day 4 and 5 results are big bumps for Obama, and when they fall off (become day 8), if the current days trend remains (which has pushed to Romney thus lowering the average +O lead), then the overall trend will move to Romney. It’s just an extrapolation. One you can use when there is a huge one day movement. A similar thing occurred on Gallup, contra Romney, and is why it went from 6 to 5 to 3 in two days time this week.

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ve officially given up trying to analyse the day by day fluctuations of all tracking polls. so much of it I’d counter intuitive and goes the opposite way to what you’d expect.

      We are probably talking tenths of a % most of the time anyway.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

        Aussie, it only works (the guessing) when there is a big bump day falling off. Even then though, you need to look at the day that fell off before that (seven days before the bump) to know if its just that day, or half the further out day dropping off…. anyway, it is just a guesstimate, not a science.

  16. RhodyKev
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Democrat spin on early voting….

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, you can throw the polling part out the window, lol.

      On the early voter edge, do you see this DNC letter actually refuting this:

      I don’t. In fact, the GOP points out that they are spinning by inflation of the 4/4 voters into the EV process, cannibalizing their voter day population.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

        One thing I would note, is that it’s probably not an absoute that this is happening across the board the same way in every state. From what I’ve read, it’s likely that the GOP has some cannibalization of its own, going on in NC and FL, for example. I think we can assume that the places listed in this GOP memo are the strongest cases for Romney –Ohio, Nevada & Iowa. From the looks of it here in Virginia, which doesn’t rely on EV as much, Obama is doing way better than what happened in ’08.

  17. Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Democrats are banking that their 2008 amazing ground game will get, literally this is their statement today (at least for Ohio) at least as many if not more blacks, hispanics, women and college age voters than they got in 2008….Yet correct me if i am wrong. By this point in 2008 wasn’t Obama at or well above 50% in most of the states he won and had been there for sometime? And that was with the above mentioned record turnout in those groups all voting in record numbers for him.

    Laymen here…but it seems to me to be pretty damn easy to move gazillions of voters that are FIRED UP to vote, proud to vote in an historical election year that it will be to move same said group OR MORE when the candidate is tied or down and polled enthusiasm is way down for him and the cross over over he had in 2008 is not just gone but actually flipped to where his 2008 supporters are stating they will vote for Romney.

    My career is SPIN…but there is a pretty clear line between spinning and outright making sh*t up 🙂

    • fab4gal
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There is absolutely no way there will be a 2008 turnout this year. 2008 Obama was “trendy” and everyone was so caught up in the fact that he is (HALF) black. That novelty is not there anymore and I’ve heard a lot of Dems are royally ticked off that he made all these promises and didn’t fulfill them. Where I live in Colorado, I see Romney signs everywhere and I’ve seen 2 Obama bumper stickers total in this entire year. So again, to say the enthusiasm for Obama is the same now as it was in 2008 is like saying the sky is orange, it’s simply false.

      Plus everyone needs to remember, Ohio had 1.7million early votes last year. This year, only 1.6 mail-in ballots were requested. So right off the bat that’s 100,000 not voting early. The number of people that have already voted early in Ohio is just over 800,000 and they’ve had almost a month to vote early. Democrats dominate early voting and so the fact that early voting itself is way, way down is a huge indicator that Obama is going to lose Ohio.

    • Todd
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here’s my totally unscientific observation- I have a business on Cleveland’s industrial east side with 20 minority employees. In ’08 the obama enthusiasm was off the charts. Signs everywhere and all the employees talked about. This time, ZERO signage anywhere and total apathy about this election. I am by no means suggesting that romney will win cuyahoga county( home of Dennis kucinich & sherrod brown), but it most certainly isn’t ’08 all over again.

      • fab4gal
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

        Exactly!! Here in Colorado, everyone is telling us we’re a toss-up but I have literally only seen 2 Obama bumper stickers in the entire year of 2012 so far. I counted 10 Romney bumper stickers and yard signs alone in the 15 minute drive to my parents’ house from my house.

  18. fab4gal
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    *1.7million early votes LAST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. Sorry!

  19. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In NC, they are throwing in the towel, based on the last three days of Republican turnout overwhelming the D’s lead:

    “Over the first part of the early voting period, (estimated) Obama turnout and (estimated) Romney turnout exceeded 2008 levels by about the same amount. But since Monday, Romney has exceeded McCain’s 2008 daily totals by an average of about 15,000 votes per day, while Obama has exceeded his own 2008 daily totals by an average of about 3,000 votes per day.

    …Any notion that Romney can afford to abandon NC and stop spending time and money in North Carolina is simply laughable. The increase in Republican turnout for Romney is an advantage for Romney, but whether or not it is a decisive advantage depends upon whether or not the increased early GOP turnout spells decreased election day GOP turnout.

    Win or lose, President Obama is forcing Romney to fight tooth and nail for North Carolina – a state which, just 8 years ago, George W. Bush won in a 56-44 landslide over John Kerry, even though Kerry had North Carolina Senator John Edwards on the ticket as VP.”

    • Alex
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      More anecdotal evidence in North Carolina:

      In the four most populous NC counties, based on early votes cast so far, Republicans have increased their vote share compared to same day in 2008. Meanwhile, Democrat vote share is down:

      Mecklenburg County:
      2008 24% R 57% D 19% Other
      2012 27% R 54% D 19% Other
      (+3 R; – 3D; 0 Other)

      Wake County:
      2008: 21% R 59% D 21% Other
      2012: 26% R 51% D 23% Other
      (+5 R; -8 D; +2 Other)

      Forsyth County:
      2008: 29% R 57% D 14% Other
      2012: 34% R 51% D 15% Other
      (+5 R; -6 D; +1 Other)

      Guilford County:
      2008: 26% R 61% D 13% Other
      2012: 30% R 54% D 16% Other
      (+4 R; -7 D; +3 Other)

      These are all counties that Obama won in 2008…
      Wake and Forsyth are also swing counties…

  20. Bunker It Up
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Release from the Romney campaign on the status in Ohio

  21. Bunker It Up
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply Release from the Romney campaign on the status in Ohio Prior link in error

    • fab4gal
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yep. In early voting, less Democrats than 2008 are voting, while more Republicans than 2008 are voting. And independents break for the challenger. Romney is taking Ohio.

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is interesting, and consistent with what a lot of smart people are saying.

      A question: why would Rich Beeson put it out there? Nerves? Need to counter the Halperin interview with Messina et al earlier today?

      Interesting–what’s the strategy here for the release?

      From my point of view it is spot on. Ohio is traditional R turf, and there has not been a large influx of minorities (like FL, NM, AZ) to counter the massive white anti-O vote. Unions are going to R or are going to sit this one out with tepid O enthusiasm, and there are not enough college grads, blacks, and latinos in OH to make up the deficit.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

        The GOP actually put out the first memo this morning with the post on the website about Ohio and the Democrats relying on 4/4 votes. Then the DNC’s now the RNC’s… nice escalation. Def a tit for tat counter going on to establish the meme for EV. I don’t know if the reporters like Halperin are smart enough to get past the bluff the Obama camp has going on here by propping up the numbers of EV with 4/4 Dem voters.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

        This is the 3rd most read article on Politco today:

        Utter garbage, but necessary to debunk.

      • Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        Election day turnout….they need the Republican turnout on election to EXCEED Obama’s. Time to fire up the ground game.

  22. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    sloppy work from Obama campaign: this must come from Biden “Hello Wisconsin, I’m glad to be in Iowa”

    Wisconsin Canvass
    (Out of State Canvass)
    Wisconsin is going to be a critical state this November — and as an Illinois volunteer, that puts YOU in a great position to help change the outcome of the election! Talking with voters in the important battleground state of Wisconsin is the single most effective thing you can do to help reelect President Obama. And it’s fun! Spend the day with like-minded volunteers from all over Chicago as we talk to voters in **Iowa** about why we support President Obama. Canvassers from the 1st, 32nd, and 43rd Wards will meet outside the OFA-IL Field Headquarters, 218 S. Wabash, at 7:00am. We will be on the road to Wisconsin by 7:30am After working 1.5 shifts, we will return to Chicago around 8pm.

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