Despite this being a Battleground State blog, I have hammered the national polls when they come out with unrealistic surveys and pass them off as credible. ABC just released its national tracking poll in conjunction with the Washington Post with a party ID of D +4 (Dem 34, Rep 30, Ind 31). In 2008 party ID was D +7 (Dem 39, Rep 32, Ind 29). For my tastes it is still too high since I think the electorate will be D +2 but this is more than acceptable for cuffing the national electorate. With a reasonable balance in party identification ABC finds Mitt Romney leading by 3-points and kissing the all important 50% mark at 50 to 47.
- Romney leads on handling the economy 52 to 43
- Who can better handle foreign affairs? Obama leads by only 1-point 48 to 47
- Who can help the middle-class? Obama only leads by 5-points 50 to 45
The debates effectively killed Obama:
- By a broad 47-10 percent, independents say the debates left them with a better rather than a worse impression of Romney. In the same group, by contrast, just 17 percent say their impression of Obama improved – and 26 percent say it got worse.
- Romney leads with men by 17, 57 to 40 — an 18-point swing from 2008
- Obama leads with women by 15, 56 to 41 — +2 for Obama vs 2008
- Youth vote: Obama leads 61 to 35 — an 8-point swing from 2008
- Seniors: Romney leads 56 to 39 — a 9-point swing from 2008
- White: Romney leads 59 to 38 — a 9-point swing from 2008
- Hispanics: Obama leads 79 to 18, +1 for Obama vs 2008
- Romney leads with Independents by at least 19 points, 57 to 38. Obama won Independents by 8-points in 2008 — a 27-point swing from 2008