Romney +2 in Virginia — Fox News

Mitt Romney has a 2-point lead in the latest Fox News poll of Virginia leading 47 to 45.  That leaves plenty of Undecideds (7%) in a race that was expected to go down to the wire but appears to be trending Romney’s way. Pre-debates this poll had President Obama with a 7-point lead and Independents evenly split at 43 a piece.  Independents now break decidedly for Romney 53 to 31. If that margin holds up through election day Virginia will flip back to red on the electoral map. The party ID is D +5 (Dem 39, Rep 34, Ind 23). This is fairly close to the 2008 turnout of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and far off the 2004 turnout of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).  It looks like they have too many Democrats and far too few Independents which is doubly good for Obama because Romney is dominating the Independent vote.  No wonder there are rumors flying everywhere that he is pulling resources from the state.


  • Foreign policy: Obama leads 49 to 43
  • Protecting medicare: Obama leads 48 to 43
  • Improving the economy: Romney leads 50 to 44
  • Reducing the Federal deficit: Romney leads 53 to 38
  • Obama job approval: tied at 48 to 48
For President Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 47
Other 1
Undecided 7


  1. Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I believe Obama is having a campaign rally with Clinton in VA early next week. Won’t make a difference. All the recent polls show Romney with a small lead in VA. After Monday, it will be very interesting to see if Obama returns to VA. I am guessing he will return to VA. Not returning to VA would be even more damaging to Obama, because it would create the message that Obama is going to lose VA, which could further depress the Obama vote in other, closer states.

  2. Eric
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It doesn’t really matter what Obama does. He’s at the point where McCain was in 2008. McCain frantically campaigned, but it didn’t matter. It’s over. This national nightmare will be over in 12 short days!

    It’s going to be a landslide.

  3. fab4gal
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow…7% undecided? “Undecideds” go for the challenger overwhelmingly, I’ve heard 2/3rds and I’ve heard 80% but either way it’s a very large amount. So with that many saying they’re undecided on top of Romney having a slight lead, it’s game over for Obama in VA.

  4. Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    D+5 is generous for Obama and still at 45%

    Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So very proud of my adopted home state VIRGINIA. Thanks for all of your hard work on this site Keith. I appreciate the rational discussion and the data first approach

  6. Jeff
    Posted October 26, 2012 at 7:54 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney will win 3-0 in my house here in northern Virginia! We’re coming back to red along with our NC neighbors to the south.

  7. ElmerF
    Posted October 28, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink | Reply

    What is the effect of Stupido’s bayonets remark and his denigrating the Navy? would think his vetran’s and current military vote should take a real hit.

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