Quick and Dirty on the Gravis Poll for Florida with Romney leading by 1

I don’t like the poll for many reasons.  But mostly there are too many contradictions favoring either party.

Party ID is D +9 (Dem 43, Rep 35, Ind 22).  This is absurd for a state that was D +3 in 2008 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and R +4 in 2004 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).

Romney gets 14% of the Democrat vote whereas Obama gets 8% of the GOP vote and Romney leads with Independents by 10.  This should be a 15-point win for Romney

Obama leads among women by 1-point.  If this were true again Romney would win the state by 15 points.

Romney leads with men by 1-point. Under this scenario Obama would carry Florida.

The racial make-up is David Axelrod’s dream scenario where White people en masses don’t vote. This is almost as bad at that SurveyUSA poll. Here the poll’s racial make-up is incredible: 63% White, 20% Hispanics/Cuban, 13% Black, 1% Asian. In 2008 the racial make-up at the ballot box in Florida was: 71% White, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black, 1% Asian. Too few Whites and too many Hispanics.  In my best Dana Carvey impression of George HW Bush, “Not gonna happen…”

It’s great that Romney’s leading in a poll but no matter who was in the lead in this poll it’s value is nil due poll compositions and voter preferences that make little sense.

5 Comments

  1. Jeff
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In the now immortal words of the current president, its a b***s***er poll. As are so many like it.

  2. Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Liberal group FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 45

    A recent Florida poll of likely voters from Project New America and USAction, which appears to be a liberal union-leaning group, shows President Obama holding an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney 47-45%.

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/liberal-group-fl-poll-obama-47-romney-45.html#storylink=cpy

  3. Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I disagree that its value is “nil”

    Even with all these fudge factors weighted in to give O every possible advantage, he’s still behind in FL. Like the PPP poll with 60% women that still couldn’t get O ahead.

    If even these BS polls show RR ahead, that’s fantastic news!

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