I don’t like the poll for many reasons. But mostly there are too many contradictions favoring either party.
Party ID is D +9 (Dem 43, Rep 35, Ind 22). This is absurd for a state that was D +3 in 2008 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and R +4 in 2004 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).
Romney gets 14% of the Democrat vote whereas Obama gets 8% of the GOP vote and Romney leads with Independents by 10. This should be a 15-point win for Romney
Obama leads among women by 1-point. If this were true again Romney would win the state by 15 points.
Romney leads with men by 1-point. Under this scenario Obama would carry Florida.
The racial make-up is David Axelrod’s dream scenario where White people en masses don’t vote. This is almost as bad at that SurveyUSA poll. Here the poll’s racial make-up is incredible: 63% White, 20% Hispanics/Cuban, 13% Black, 1% Asian. In 2008 the racial make-up at the ballot box in Florida was: 71% White, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black, 1% Asian. Too few Whites and too many Hispanics. In my best Dana Carvey impression of George HW Bush, “Not gonna happen…”
It’s great that Romney’s leading in a poll but no matter who was in the lead in this poll it’s value is nil due poll compositions and voter preferences that make little sense.