Quick and Dirty on the Gravis Poll for Florida with Romney leading by 1

I don’t like the poll for many reasons.  But mostly there are too many contradictions favoring either party.

Party ID is D +9 (Dem 43, Rep 35, Ind 22).  This is absurd for a state that was D +3 in 2008 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and R +4 in 2004 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).

Romney gets 14% of the Democrat vote whereas Obama gets 8% of the GOP vote and Romney leads with Independents by 10.  This should be a 15-point win for Romney

Obama leads among women by 1-point.  If this were true again Romney would win the state by 15 points.

Romney leads with men by 1-point. Under this scenario Obama would carry Florida.

The racial make-up is David Axelrod’s dream scenario where White people en masses don’t vote. This is almost as bad at that SurveyUSA poll. Here the poll’s racial make-up is incredible: 63% White, 20% Hispanics/Cuban, 13% Black, 1% Asian. In 2008 the racial make-up at the ballot box in Florida was: 71% White, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black, 1% Asian. Too few Whites and too many Hispanics.  In my best Dana Carvey impression of George HW Bush, “Not gonna happen…”

It’s great that Romney’s leading in a poll but no matter who was in the lead in this poll it’s value is nil due poll compositions and voter preferences that make little sense.


  1. Jeff
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In the now immortal words of the current president, its a b***s***er poll. As are so many like it.

  2. Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Liberal group FL poll: Obama 47-Romney 45

    A recent Florida poll of likely voters from Project New America and USAction, which appears to be a liberal union-leaning group, shows President Obama holding an inside-the-error-margin lead over Mitt Romney 47-45%.


  3. Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I disagree that its value is “nil”

    Even with all these fudge factors weighted in to give O every possible advantage, he’s still behind in FL. Like the PPP poll with 60% women that still couldn’t get O ahead.

    If even these BS polls show RR ahead, that’s fantastic news!

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