Obama +5 in Pennsylvania — Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports checks in on Pennsylvania and sees President Obama with some daylight but by no means out of reach.  The President has a 5-point lead, 51 to 46:

President Obama still earns over 50% of the vote in Pennsylvania. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows the president with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 46
Other 1
Undecided 2

37 Comments

  1. Jeff
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney/Obama #’s backwards in the chart. 😉

    • allthingsgeography1
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I was about to say…getting a bit of yourself there Keith? 😉

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

        *ahead of yourself

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I step away from the computer for a bit and look what happens. Sorry about that.

  2. zang
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It is 48% to 45% WITHOUT leaners. So it is definitely within reach. 55% of the sample is female, and 0 leads by 12% among females….

  3. Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I dont pay to see Ras internals, but someone mentioned on another website that in this new Ras PA poll, of those certain to vote, it’s tied at 47/47. We know that Obama’s support is squishy in the upper-middle class areas of Philly and elsewhere. Hmmm. Intriguing. Obama dominated upper-middle class PA voting in 2008.

  4. Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    according to twitter, the sample size was D+6

  5. Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ”Ras PA poll has O+5, 51-46. Sample is D+6 (was D+7 in 08, D+3 in 2010). Romney’s only chance is win big w/ indys and get to 2010 turnout.”

    • damien
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      well romney’s people have been saying it will be d plus 3 election…

  6. Brian
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Independents are 46-46 in this poll, FYI.

  7. Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    PA and MI is not oing to fall…ALL focus must be on Ohio, minor Colorado and NH and Virginia

    • Ron
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t be too sure. There was Brown, Christie, McDonnell, Walker–all spurts of unexpected energy in the final days that startled the Dems. Then there was 2010. This may yet be that sort of election.

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I disagree. Ras’s last PA poll had Obama at 51-45 without leaners. This poll? 48-45% without leaners. Obama is seeing softening in support and it was from 2 groups: white men and “other” men. They are getting second thoughts.

    • Bunker It Up
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree with Shane on the PA chances. Went to college there and there are 1,000,000 more registerd Democrats. Ohio is a must.

    • Kevin
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The deciding factor in Pennsylvania will be the Western part of the state since they have the most to lose with the shale oil boom, and the coal industry. If voters in Western Pennsylvania come out big, and vote their wallet, then there’s a good, or better than good chance it could flip to Romney.

  8. zang
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney may well win PA, but I don’t see how he does that without also winning Ohio. And if he wins Ohio, he wins the election. In other words, PA would be “icing on the cake.”

    • WillBest
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Barone had an article that said Obama has lost the affluent suburban vote. Ohio has less affluent suburbs as a % of the population than MI or PA. Thats why Romney is gaining less ground in Ohio.

    • Ron
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree. But I also think there were some surprising elections in the past few years. People haven’t changed that much in terms of wanting to send a message. 2010 was a protest. So was Brown and Christie and Walker. People still resent Obamacare. They’re still up in arms about the bailouts. They still resent the stimulus rip-off. The Tea Party is still alive and kicking. I don’t think the polls are picking up on this intensity. And for most of the media till the first debate it was 2008 redux.

  9. No Tribe
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The ultimate irony would be Romney taking Pennsylvania and losing Ohio. At this point, with so much cash, Romney should be airing ads nationally to further boost his polling and create more momentum.

    • Ron
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      At this point I think the calculation is that the less said the better in PA. Obama carpet-bombed this state with negativity up till the conventions. They would do so again if Romney began advertising–so it’d be a wash in terms of making progress. Better to use the money to shore up his gains elsewhere. Nothing is fixed in stone yet. Obama’s still within striking distance in places like OH and VA.

    • Ron
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah, nationally would be the way to go.

  10. Interested Party
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If R is this close in PA he’s winning OH and IA. PA will be close, but will not matter. Use the PA numbers to gauge OH support.

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      you cannot mathmatically make that assumption. He could be within 1/2 point in PA and still lose both PA and Ohio. You have to look at all 50 states as independent little countries. How Iowa votes will not necessarily be the way Nebraska, Missouri or Wisconsin votes. The way Pennsylvania votes may not be the way Ohio or Michigan votes.

      At this point…if on election night they call Pennsylvania for Romney, it is over you will not have to wait for Ohio. But losing Pennsylvania also won’t necessarily mean he will win or lose Ohio.

      • SR
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

        I have followed your posts and you are the most pessimistic Romney supporter over here…if you are one, that is.

      • zang
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

        States are like ripples in an ocean, not independent countries.

      • Interested Party
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

        States may be like independent countries, but segments of their populations are similar. There are a lot of voters in IA and OH like those in PA, especially those in Western PA. I live in Western PA, and I think that Romney will take it by at least 7-10 points here. We are getting the Rothfus-Critz ads non-stop right now, and the entire focus by Rothfus is on tying Critz to Obama. If Obama was in such great shape, why run those ads?

        Also, any state within 2-2.5 points for O in the RCP average right now should be considered tied or weak Romney–Obama is the incumbent, not the challenger, and he will not get the undecided vote. Yes, there is a lot larger undecided vote in the polls than anyone is letting on. Nobody will admit to a desire to toss our first black president, but it’s there.

  11. Kent Ostby
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    1) Count me a skeptic on PA. I pinned some hopes on that during the Bush runs and was always disappointed.

    Maybe it will be close enough for Smith to win the Senate seat over a boring Casey.

    2) I have to believe that Romney is ahead in OH given the polls and horrible polling ID numbers, but when you’ve been to war as long as i have on these things, you don’t take stuff for granted.

    We have to keep pushing in NH, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada in case OH doesn’t come through.

    • Ron
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bush was too evangelical and too much the cowboy, not a good cultural fit in PA. Neither was McCain who was perceived as clueless on the economy. Both lost the fiscally conservative/culturally liberal Philly suburbs–swing counties. In the clash between Philadelphia and the rest of the state, the suburbs were the determinants. Recently the suburbs went for GOP candidate Corbett and he took the governorship. On top of all this, PA Democrats, strongly pro-Clinton, still bear a lot of residual resentment of how Hillary was treated by Obama in ’08. So PA is doable. If the vote in Philly is down sufficiently and Romney takes the suburbs, we could win the state. That said, I think Romney’s campaign is right to hold off really engaging here. Let the chips fall where they may.

      • Interested Party
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

        Agree. Romney is the best fit for PA since Bush 41.

  12. Posted October 25, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I ask this in all seriousness…in 2008 I had moved out of politics and into a corporate job and well knew from the moment McCain won we lost. So I haven’t closely followed polling since after the 2004 election when I was pleasantly surprised Bush won re-election.

    My question for my fellow polling nerds….were the polls in 2004 and 2008 all over the freaking map like they have been this year? ie two respected polls show the Republican up 3 and two respected polls show the Democrat up 3 as well?

    We have seen since the first debate Romney leading, albeit small, in the RCP average nationally yet no where near an electoral lead….were the state polls in 04 aqnd 08 the same? IS THIS REALLY A WEIRD YEAR for polling or is this like Peter Palco said before par for the course. You see weirdness when your candidate loses?

    • zang
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I followed 2004 closely. Too closely. The national polls mostly gave Bush a small, but very consistent lead. Some outliers were Fox and Zogby, which put Kerry ahead.

      The state polls were all over the map, and there was speculation then that Bush would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. My own read is that state polls are simply less reliable than national polls. Not sure why,.

      • Interested Party
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

        Hmmm. Doesn’t that sound familiar this year? O could lose the popular vote but win the EC?

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 5:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interested: I posted this earlier…if Rommey is up RCP average by 2 or more points it would be hard to imagine he loses the election even in the college. Bush lost the popular vote by a scant margin. It would be odd with Romney not carrying the population centers like NYC, Miami, Chicago, LA, etc that he would win nationally by a nice margin but lose in the college. Possible but hard to imagine. If the race on election day is a point or under than by all means it could very seriously happen.

  13. Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    2004 was D+2. 2008 was D+6. Something that was also fascinating in 2008 was that Obama over-polled in the primary and in the general, from what I can see.

    We also saw D+5 in 2006, close to the D+7 we saw in 2008. I would not be surprised if the D+2 of 2010 ends up mirroring the turnout in PA. Another interesting note is that 15% of Democrats voted for Bush in PA in 2004. Pennsylvania seems to have a lot of crossover voters. I could very well see the SW of the state go GOP like it largely did in 2010 and that could help to swing the state. From what I could find from 2002, it appears the party with some momentum from the off-year election gets a bit of a boost in the Presidential year, so trends indicate that D+0 or D+1 are in the realm of possibility here. We also have seen polls that show much more Democratic crossover for Romney than visa versa. Bush lost the Keystone state by under 150,000 votes in 2004 with coal mining country supporting Kerry. A swing in and around Pittsburgh could make up for much of that.

  14. Brian
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It looks like nationally the race will end up being R+2.5-4.0 points based on Romney’s RCP average and assuming he gets about 70% of the undecided votes. Unless the election is within 0.5 points then you will see a discrepancy between the electoral college and the national vote – it is extremely rare. Personally, I think Romney will win VA, NC, FL, NH, OH or Wisconsin, and Colorado, thus, winning the election. At least that’s what I’m hoping. If it ends up being a wave then PA, MI, and Minnesota are possibilities. IA and NV worry me. I hope Romney takes PA but that’s always been such a teaser state as we lost it in 2004 by 2.5 points and 2000 as well.

  15. Posted October 25, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You mean Romney winning by 2.5-4% or Rpublicans turning out ahead of Dems at that rate? If it’s R+4 nationally then this would be a massive blowout.

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