NBC/WSJ/Marist Grudgingly Concede Nevada and Colorado Are Close

The worst polling alliance of this cycle comes back for a few more surveys and gives it the old college try to keep Obama close as the race begins slipping away in Colorado.  The Nevada poll skews towards the Democrats but otherwise seems to be a fair poll:

Colorado

  • Dead heat at 48 to 48 with 2% Undecided
  • Party ID: D +1 (Dem 34, Rep: 33, Ind: 32) versus 2008 R +1 (Dem 30, Rep: 31, Ind: 39) and R +9 (Dem: 29, Rep: 38, Ind: 33) in 2004
  • Colorado is trending Democrat but I highly doubt the Obama machine will achieve a 2pp greater margin than 2008.  Probably too many Dems and Reps and not enough Inds
  • Racial demos in the poll: White 77%, Hispanics 16%, Blacks 3%.  This compares to 2008 of White: 81%, Hispanics: 13%, Blacks: 4%.  A 4pp decline in the White vote?  Highly doubtful as well as the sizable rise in Hispanics 3%.
  • Playing with the racial make-up which again is a conscious choice of polling organizations is their latest attempt to make Obama poll far better than reality.
  • Even with the two above advantages heavily weighted towards Obama, he can remains below 50% and can do no better than a tie.
  • Romney’s personal favorability is +1 48 to 47 even after half-a-billion dollars in negative ads

Nevada

  • Obama +3, 50 to 47 with 2% Undecided
  • Party ID is D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33 , Ind 27) versus 2008 of D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 26) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26)
  • Still skewed towards the Democrats record turnout in 2008 when Obama was battling an unarmed opponent who gave up on contesting the state.  Good luck with that one on Nov. 6
  • Racial demos: White 70%, Hispanics 16%, Blacks 7%.  This compares with 2008 of White: 69%, Hispanics 15%, Blacks 10%.  Fairly reasonable break-down.  The key will be whether the enthusiasm gap depresses Hispanic turnout
  • Romney’s personal favorability is +2 48 to 46 even after half-a-billion dollars in negative ads

13 Comments

  1. kyle
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well if these chumps say Colorado is tied…that means Romney must have it locked up…minus an Oct-Nov surprise!! Just give me Ohio and the election is over!!!

  2. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Funny, PPP desperately tries to get out there that Obama’s leading in Colorado, and an hour or so later even NBC/Marist stomp on them.

    Colorado is trending RR heavily now. Conceding a “tie” is probably the closest we’ll get to an admission from some pollsters.

  3. Dan
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    you mean “half a billion”….right?

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      billions, trillions what’s the difference?

      • Dan
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

        true, especially with the printers in the treasury basement working overtime. Weimar are us!

  4. WillBest
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think NV Obama +3 is where it will ultimately end up. I know Republicans have made massive strides in Washoe, and the desert, to the extent it exists will turn up for Romney, but its not going to be enough to beat the Vegas machine.

    Romney is in FL and VA over the weekend which are defensive not offensive plays. I know there are only so many places you can go in Ohio, but I was hoping to see him press WI or NH.

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In Fla., McCain had 300,000 more GOP go to the polls on election day than Obama had Dems, but McCain lost by 200,000 overall. This was because Obama had 340,000 more Dems than Repubs vote early and exit polls indicate he also beat McCain by 170,000 among independents.

      This time it’s Romney by close to the same margin among independents, 300,000+ more Repubs than Dems on election day and currently, 51,000 more GOP than Dems have returned absentee ballots.

      The only reason Romney is going there is because early in person voting starts 10/27 and the Dems have been running their mouths for a long time about how they are going to put up huge numbers over the GOP in early in person voting. If after two days (morning of 10/29) the Dems don’t have close to 100,000 more early in person voters than the GOP, you will see Romney drop Florida off his schedule and begin to scale back and throw resources elsewhere. Until then, he’s smart not to get ahead of himself, as Bush and Rove did in 2000.

  5. housebroken dad
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m waiting and hoping for him to come to WI. I’m there if he ever does.

  6. Posted October 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Game changer new Obama ad: http://www.therightscoop.com/disqusting-new-obama-ad-asks-who-would-you-rather-do-it-with-obama-or-romney/ Allthings, if you thought the BSer comment by Obama was bad, oh boy LOL. This ad is just wrong.

  7. valleyforge
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like GOP is leading the early vote in Colorado, a 9-point flip from 2008.

    http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

    • fab4gal
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Funny thing about here in Colorado, 78% of us vote “by mail” which I translate into voting early. So unlike other states where a huge amount of Republicans will turn out on the day itself to vote, the early voting in my state (CO) is an extremely accurate indicator of how the state is going to go.

  8. Mike
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, my wife and I just went to cast our early vote here in Fayetteville NC…….there were 11 people at that time at the polling place and by looking out to the pamphlet from the Democrats or Republicans. I counted only one OBAMA voter, everybody else had Romney pamphlets……GO ROMNEY / RYAN

    • Posted October 25, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That’s great to hear Mike. Thanks for the on the scene report. You guys owe us one 😉

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