Clark County Day 5 early voting results have enough in them for every party to spin them to their advantage. The comparative performances by the two major parties were even with the prior day’s results. Democrats cast 14,934 ballots while Republicans cast 9725 ballots resulting in the Republican early vote accounting for 65% of the Democrat early vote for the second straight day. Although this matched the prior day’s comparative performance it was a slight improvement for the Democrats relative to my model. Democrat turnout was +3.4% higher than expected while Republican turnout was -2.3% below expectations. Not a horrible performance but something the GOP needs to meaningfully counteract if they hope to close the Clark County Democrat advantage sufficiently enough to carry the state. Democrat’s aggregate lead in early ballots cast stands at 28,699, which is -9373 less than the 38,072 ballot lead at the same point in 2008.
More interesting though is daily turnout over the last 3-days has held fairly steady but yesterday both party’s % of the overall vote dropped day-over-day. Democrats were down -0.6 percentage points while Republicans were down -0.2pp. These deficits were made-up by the steady increase in the Independent/Other parties which accounted for 19.3%, higher than any level achieved by this segment other than their 2008 peak of 19.5% on the final day of early voting. While the two major parties duke it out with results bouncing up-and-down depending on the day, the Independent/Other group has made a steady march higher in each of the four days of early voting. The Republicans comparative gain on Democrats is a big story thus far in early voting but the rise of he Independents could end up being story of early voting. At this rate, if one candidate can decisively carry this vote it will likely swing the election.
After the new assumptions were added into the model yesterday I think it performed pretty well based on the above results. The one thing I want to constantly tweak is the growth rate of Republican’s % of the Democrat vote because this can have a disproportionate impact on the overall difference. So every day the model will reflect a new growth rate based only on the updated 2012 actual results. This risk with employing such a daily change is the forecasted results will jump around a lot but because that is what is really happening on the ground I’d rather have each day be a fair estimate of where the vote would end up based only on the actual growth rate achieved and my best guestimate on what I think the growth rate will be (I’ll leave that to your state pension managers). In this case it brings the growth rate down since the GOP failed to increase the day-over-day turnout relative to Democrats. The new growth rate is 3.2% versus the 4.2% used yesterday. We see what a sizable impact this change can have on forecasting in that the expected vote margin between the two parties heading into election day is now 56,034 whereas yesterday the model had this number at 40,820.
Note: the inverse applies to my Washoe model where I have been hesitant to change the growth rate because the GOP is killing it up there and the actual growth rate is nearly double what I modeled. In that model the final result is balanced out by an overestimate of Democrat turnout but I’ll be changing the Washoe growth rate and expected turnout after tonight’s data though so we’ll see what happens.
For reference purposes, here are links to each of the previous day’s analysis.
- Day 1: Nevada Early Voting is Starting and Day One Results Are Out
- Day 2: Republican Early Vote Continues to Gain in Clark County, Nevada
- Day 3: Clark County, Nevada Early Voting Day 3
- Day 4: Republicans Continue to Make Waves in Clark County, Nevada Early Voting