[This was supposed to go up yesterday but never made it. Sorry]
Any reader of this blog knows I’ll blog polls whether they be good or bad for Mitt Romney with the noted exception of PPP who does advocacy and push polling rendering them not a credible organization. But when a polls internals are so ludicrous, I won’t waste my time or your time. This rant is actually quicker than blogging the poll (if you can believe it).
First Obama leads by 3 in Ohio. It’s a close race so that’s more than possible. But look at these internals:
- Mitt Romney gets 22% of the African-American vote
- Barack Obama gets 70% of the African-American vote
Ohio is 80%+ White but come on. With those %s there is a zero percent chance Obama is leading with support levels like that. Additionally the idea that Mitt Romney is getting 22% of the African-American vote is metaphysically impossible.
The poll says 26% of those surveyed already voted which compares to 8% who have actually voted. Since Democrats tend to vote early and all voters who said they voted make it through the likely voter screen, you are guaranteed to over sample Democrats.
This is a waste of time to think this poll is remotely reflective of the electorate in Ohio today.