“This must be what momentum looks like” — Des Moines Register

When reporters start write-ups like that you something special is going on:

Cedar Rapids, Ia. – This must be what momentum looks like.

It was a dramatic entrance into Iowa for Mitt Romney on Wednesday – as stirring music played, his campaign airplane touched down at the Eastern Iowa Airport, taxied toward a hangar and parked just 50 feet behind the stage, his campaign motto “Believe in America” visible along its fuselage.

Romney stepped down the jetway to meet a cheering, chanting crowd of more than 3,000 and deliver a high-energy speech that was by turns sharply critical of incumbent President Barack Obama and confidently optimistic about the nation’s future under new leadership.

Namely, him.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, reeled off a litany of troubles facing the country, from debt and deficits to the weak economy.

“But the American people can overcome those challenges if they’re led by leaders who will tell them the truth and lead with integrity and I will.”

Romney’s appearance capped off one of the busier days of the Iowa presidential campaign, and comes amidst a frenzied final push to Election Day. Obama appeared in Davenport Wednesday morning at the start of a two-day trip that will take him to six battleground states. Romney’s rally followed high-profile visits from other national Republicans, including Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus.

The pro-Romney roars at times where deafening inside the sheet metal structure – despite the fact many of the attendees had been in place for hours, and some were turned away at the door per the fire marshal’s warning about the building’s maximum occupancy. (emphasis added)


  1. Brian
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Cedar Rapids? Isn’t that hardcore liberal territory in Iowa?

  2. Jan
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Washoe County, Nevada numbers from today:

    Wednesday, Oct 24 = 8,331
    Dems = 3,310 Reps = 3,541

    Again a nice little lead.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      yep. working on it now. The Democrats are losing turnout to an increasing Other/Independent/NP vote. Makes it all the more important for Romney to start winning the Independents.

      • William Jefferson
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

        Wasn’t he up by 20 points in Rasmussen among indies?

  3. Brian
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For reference: Cedar Rapids is the county seat of Linn County, which went to Clinton 43-34-23 (Bush-Perot) in 92, went to Clinton 55-37 in 96, went to Gore 53-44 in 2000, went to Kerry 55-45 in 2004, and went to Obama 60-39 in 2008.

    So this must be Mitt “minding the gap” in Iowa. Linn County’s the second largest county in the state and Romney won’t win it, but keeping the margin down is one of the keys to carrying Iowa.

  4. Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    FYI-Inside source confirmed a west Florida county obama office is having their volunteers call Ohio. We are working to get some additional intel from other offices around the state. This basically confirms what we already knew, that Obama is giving up on Florida.

    • Brian
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Keeping the staff in Florida maintains the illusion that Obama is competitive there. I am intrigued if Michigan is really as close as this new poll shows. At some point Obama would have to make an entrance into Michigan; or would he refuse in order to keep his supporters from full-scale panic?

      • Brian
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

        He’s already been moving his staff from Michigan into Ohio…

      • Eric
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

        From Obama’s perspective, he has to gamble it all on Ohio. He has to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He has to just hope for the best in PA and MI and do everything possible to hold Ohio. SuperPACs have been doing ad buys in Michigan. Not sure about Pennsylvania, but they should.

      • Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

        I think he realizes that if Michigan goes, he’s done anyways. Same for Pennsylvania. I think PA and MI would come as a package. But his campaign is already talking about his IA, NH, NV, CO, and WI firewall. I think the problem is that he is vulnerable in so many places. Both campaigns will have the best polling available. Obama’s showed how strong he was in 2008. If he had that same data, I doubt he’d be tired. He’d be cocky. Romney clearly is confident right now. The guy is going into Iowa’s liberal bastion. He’s attacking the enemy on his turf.

        Now look at what Romney is doing here in Florida. He’s coming back this weekend to Land’O’Lakes in the Republican stronghold of Pasco County and then going to two places where he can work to enthuse his supports to build a lead – Kissimmee, which is near the Republican leaning parts of Orlando, and Pensacola in GOP leaning Escambia county in the panhandle. The schedule is one where a lead gets widened for a Republican. Obama is here tomorrow in Tampa where he’s trying to drive the younger crowd by appearing in Ybor City.

        Seems like Romney is making more stops and has more energy. Obama looks tired. Of course, Romney is one of those guys that never seems to run out of energy.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:31 am | Permalink

        Romney appears to be doing to Obama what Obama did to McCain 4yrs ago. Force McCain to either fight and defend the 2004 Bush state coalition or hope for the best and bank his hopes on one blue (but really, purple) state…Pennsylvania. Of course, we know what happened; Obama outflanked McCain and the 2004 Bush map crumbled…Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Nebraska 2nd Congressional District…did I forget any? Pretty much a electoral bloodbath. So now we go 4yrs later and Romney, without even strongly trying may be able to compete (in addition to most of the states Obama took from the ’04 Bush map) Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota , Maine 2nd Congressional District and Wisconsin (which nearly flipped in ’04). These are states that haven’t gone for Republicans for President since 1988 at the most recent and even longer for Minnesota. If one of these states were to go, it would be the end of the election because if one goes, others will likely go because they trend more Democratic than the normal swing state. Like 2008, basically if traditionally more partisan states are going purple on your side of the map (and the competition is distorted in that you can’t do the same on the others turf), your campaign is in deep trouble. Like McCain, Obama appears to be having the same problem.

  5. Mark
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Can you do an analysis of Ohio and Iowa like you have on Clark and Washoe counties in Nevada? I am very interested to see raw county/precinct level data on the early vote totals as compared to 2008 and 2004. Bottom line…are we on track to win or lose in OH & IA?

    • TeaPartyPaul
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Its harder in Ohio Mark cause they dont break down according to party…google this “ohio google spreadsheet absentee ballots” and you will see the percentages in each county brokendown by who “voted” in what primary last.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink | Reply


    • Douglas
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      Ohio early vote numbers, both in-person and absentee, are very difficult to interpret. Ohio changed the way the handled absentee ballot requests so comparing 2008 to 2012 is tricky. For in-person voting, Ohio’s party identification is weird (based on the last ballot requested in a primary) so an “independent” could be anything, and even the classification of Democrats and Republicans is unreliable.

      I’ll admit, looking at Ohio’s early vote is great fun, but any analysis is going to be based on opinion and hopes more than anything else.

  6. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Can people provide youtube URL’s for the **best/most effective ads** for Romney — so we can paste them on facebook and elsewhere?

    • Alex
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      This is a good uplifting web ad of the first debate:

  7. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    PPP just released a NV poll. Obama leads 51-47 overall. Romney actually leads 51-46 among those who have yet to vote, but Obama has a huge lead among early voters, who make up 34% of the respondents. According to the NV SOS, 210,000 people have voted so far, in person or by absentee ballot. For PPP’s poll to be true, only about 630,000 people will vote in NV this year. Is that math right?

    Nearly a million total votes were cast in 2008…

    Someone needs to start unskewing these wild early vote claims in polls which are artificially raising obama’s poll numbers.

    Links: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_1024.pdf

    • AussieMarcus
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 12:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      Apparently it’s because “have you already voted?” is a question in the Likely Voter Screen. So all people who already vote (i.e. mostly Dems at this stage) get through and that distorts the result.

      They SHOULD weight it by the actual early vote to date, but that would show Obama losing and we can’t have that can we?

  8. Posted October 25, 2012 at 12:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    i just wont believe MI and PA are “in play” these are outlier, odd polls. Obama wont win by as big of a margin as 08 but he will still win by 2-5 points. At least, if there was fire to the smoke that are these polls you would not see him in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, etc….those will definitely fall if he loses PA and MI. If O thought he was in any real trouble he would be all over those two states because it sure as hell is easier for him to HOLD or turn back a late push in those two blues than save Florida or Virginia….and those two mean more electorally. If he was in danger, he would defend. Because seriously if you are a democrat what would have a bigger impact LOSING PA and MI but winning Florida or Virginia?

    Sorry, don’t buy it. Fun to think of O squirming but I dont buy it for these two states. If they were in danger in anyway, you would also see Romney’s national number much higher than .6% lead.

    • Brian
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      You’re overlooking the fact that Obama is still trying to play up the “inevitability” factor. He and his team believe if they project a sense that his re-election is inevitable, then it will come to pass. That’s why they’ll never admit that they’re doomed in North Carolina, Florida, or Virginia, even as they quietly move staffers out of those states. To signal retreat would be crippling to their sense of inevitability. For Obama to suddenly pop up in Michigan or Pennsylvania or Minnesota and campaign would be the death knell to his Presidency, because then the floodgates REALLY open as the alarms go off and the rats jump ship.

    • Ron
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      Here in PA, Obama may not be behind by 4pts as that one poll showed, but Obama could definitely lose.. Casey is at 46% right now–and Smith keeps hammering away in commercials that Casey supports Obama. The more he does this, the more Smith rises in the polls.

      The biggest problem for Obama here is his war on energy–coal and natural gas. Obama opposes fracking and the coal industry in general. Unemployment is high in this state–and people here see our natural resources as a way out of a financial crisis.

      We just finished electing a GOP governor and senator. Both chambers of the state legislature are Republican. It has a Catholic population that resents Obama’s encroachments on religious liberty. It has a high Jewish population that resents his attitude towards Israel. It has a high senior population that fears and despises Obamacare. Why shouldn’t this state be in play?

      Besides, Romney’s a good fit culturally.

      • Brian
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 3:07 am | Permalink

        I’ve always thought that Romney was the type of Republican that could break through in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Christ, we just elected a moderate GOP Governor (to the point where many slap the “RINO” tag on him) in 2010 who got nearly 60% of the vote statewide.

        If Mitt was actually making a play for places like MI and PA as much as OH/FL/VA/IA/etc, he’d be right there even, I think. He doesn’t *need* them though, so he’s not using a ton of resources.

    • Todd
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 6:59 am | Permalink | Reply

      If nothing else Romney can get a 2 for 1 with ads that crossover. Detroit=Toledo & Pittsburgh = Youngstown

  9. Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Brian, Cedar Rapids is not so liberal as it’s southern neighbors in Johnson County. But i can say honestly, Romney signs are up even in Iowa City. I can’t guarantee a R and R win, but in my nearly 30 years in the area i can say i have never seen republican candidates getting this level of support in Johnson County.

    • Adam
      Posted October 25, 2012 at 6:42 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s great to hear! I’m from CR/IC area, but havent been back during this election cycle. i know how pro Union CR is and that IC is a college town.. I remember the amount of Nader bumpers stickers in 2000. If Romney picks up his numbers vs 2004 in this area, there is no way he doesn’t take the state.

  10. Posted October 25, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    According to Nate SIlver today there is no such thing as Mitt Romney momentum it is made up because he has not continued to gain ground in the majority of the polls. Which on the surface sounds plausible but you have to take into account the country is split roughly 47-47 with 6% up for grabs. Unless a candidate starts flipping the other guys base and hardcores the ceiling is 53%. Romney has been above 50 in Gallup for going on 2 weeks. Ras for quite a few days. But there is no momentum…cause the states haven’t all flipped yet….you know Rommey not leading with D+8 polling. Damnit such a loser

One Trackback

  1. […] The pro-Romney roars at times where deafening inside the sheet metal structure – despite the fact many of the attendees had been in place for hours, and some were turned away at the door per the fire marshal’s warning about the building’s maximum occupancy.”…via Battleground Watch blog […]

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