Romney +2 in New Hampshire — Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports hits New Hampshire finding Romney leading by 2-points, 50 to 48:

The presidential race in New Hampshire remains neck-and-neck, with Mitt Romney stretching to a two-point lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 50
Other 1
Undecided 1

17 Comments

  1. Keith W
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    The magic 50% mark…bad news for Mr. Obama.

  2. Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    You have the graph showing Obama ahead by 2 pts, instead of Romney. Did I misunderstand? 🙂

  3. gravis
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    fix the chart. you’ve got the wrong guy with 50

  4. Dogfish
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:15 am | Permalink | Reply

    The Democrats have to be seeing that everything is trending in Romney’s direction. I would say that their panic level is starting to elevate and that the rats will soon start looking for ways to leave the ship.

    Also, the Intrade odds for ‘Obama Wins’ are dropping like Sherman going through Georgia.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:47 am | Permalink | Reply

      They have pockets where their heads are completely dived into the sand. Ran across one today for laughs, called http://votamatic.org/ that has masses of data, and the kid looks like an aspiring political scientist. I feel bad for him, as he’s throwing away his career. Says Obama by 332 to 206. And then you have comments there like this:

      “Super pleased to see stream of sensible, data-driven campaign commentary this AM. No call for superstition to mute honest analysis.”

      I think what’s happening is that we have a bunch of very young kids that got into politics with the Obama wave, whom have savvy statistical skills. But they don’t understand national electoral politics beyond the one model they have the stats for and in which their hero won. They have no sense beyond their computer.

      • margaret
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

        As opposed to Jay Cost, who I followed back in the 2004 election days. He had the real smarts and wisdom to parlay his knowledge into a career as a respected election number cruncher, author and analyst. He has credibility, which Nate Silver is rapidly losing.

  5. NHConservative
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:20 am | Permalink | Reply

    There are tons of Romney signs everywhere in Hillsborough County especially at homes and businesses (who have the large ones) You only see the Obama signs on state roads where the volunteers are putting them…maybe a couple of token signs at homes, that’s it.

  6. JGS
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:20 am | Permalink | Reply

    Your table is wrong — you put the 50 next to Obama’s name and the 48 next to Romney’s name. (Or at least this is how it looks on my Blackberry.)

  7. cbr66
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    Just a thought, In 2008 Rasmussen had Obama up 4 on 10-23. UNH had Obama up by 15. Obama won by 10. You might want to split the difference in these polls. I doubt Romney is up by 2.

  8. housebroken dad
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    This is HUGE because Romney hasn’t been to NH in weeks if not months. Obama’s made two recent stops there if I recall. Very nice indeed.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:49 am | Permalink | Reply

      iirc, Romney’s last time was in the first week of Sept, the same time Obama came. And yes, this Sat Obama is headed back to NH.

  9. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen will soon release a NV poll showing 0 up by 2.

  10. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “President Obama still receives 50% of the vote in Nevada’s tight presidential race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. Nevada remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. A week ago, the president had a 50% to 47% advantage in Nevada. Obama drew 50% support in surveys from March through July in the state but slipped to 47% last month against Romney’s 45%. The latest numbers represent the highest level of support yet for Romney in the Silver State. The incumbent currently holds a 51% to 47% edge among the 35% of Nevada voters who say they have already voted. Of the 97% of Nevada voters who are certain they will vote in this year’s election, the candidates are tied at 49% apiece.”

  11. Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in Massachusetts but have many friends and Colleagues who live in New Hampshire. I visit New Hampshire at least 2 times a month. There is no way Obama carries that state this time around. Its the greater Manchester area that makes the race close enough to talk about. The rest of the state won’t pick up the phone. I say on Nov 7th it’s Romney over Obama 52% or better to 47% or less, the libertarian guy might pull 2% . New Hampshire folks are a funny lot, the long time natives and not the Massachusetts transplants. They are a leave me the “bleep” alone fiscal conservatives to the hilt types who live by the states moto, live free or die. They never stick their noses into your business and don’t want yours in theirs. But if you’re in trouble like hurt hiking or fishing, have a kid that went missing or need a helping hand, these folks are the first in line to help. Then they go home without ever asking for a dime!!!!

  12. AussieMar us
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Really, leave out that comical O+9 poll and Romney would a small but consistent lead in NH.

    All other pollsters have it tied or R up 1-2 pts

  13. Posted October 24, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The FACTS are as of this second…the averages on RCP, the accepted standard, are Obama still has the electoral math. So don’t be pushing those wagons in front of your horses yet.

    Until and ONLY UNTIL the RCP average shows Romney ahead in Ohio can the comments of “it looks like he will win” can be accurately made. Momentum cannot overcome what the math says at this point.

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