Obama +2 in Nevada — Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports shows a tight race in Nevada with Obama leading by 2-points, 50 to 48:

President Obama still receives 50% of the vote in Nevada’s tight presidential race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. Nevada remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. A week ago, the president had a 50% to 47% advantage in Nevada. Obama drew 50% support in surveys from March through July in the state but slipped to 47% last month against Romney’s 45%. The latest numbers represent the highest level of support yet for Romney in the Silver State. The incumbent currently holds a 51% to 47% edge among the 35% of Nevada voters who say they have already voted. Of the 97% of Nevada voters who are certain they will vote in this year’s election, the candidates are tied at 49% apiece.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 1

(h/t: Zang)

31 Comments

  1. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Has 35% indeed already voted? It seems like the early voter claims in these polls are way oer inflated. Id like to see a pollster to ask the early voter question in a state that has no early voting and see what that reveals.

  2. Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am skeptical of most pollsters when they cover Nevada. They got the 2010 race very wrong, and are likely doing the same again. Mark Mellman, who was one of the only pollsters to call Nevada right in 2010, is showing Obama with a 8 point lead. With a 25,000 vote lead so far in early voting (and with early voting probably going to be 70%+ of the vote), things are looking bleak for Romney and Heller

    • zang
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Suffolk got NV right, and they concur with Ras that it is a 2 point race.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Is it just 2010? I seem to recall polls being off in Nevada much before that time. More off than on. Tough place to poll. Bunch of people who are outside the regular lifestyle.

  3. Brian
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    FWIW…this poll has Romney blowing Obama away with independents.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t know if I am going to make it to election day.

      • Utah Libertarian
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

        I say this about 10 times every day. I understand.

  4. valleyforge
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Trailing 51-47 in early voting? I’ll take it.

    Through Day 4, 210,500 early or absentee votes have been cast (~22% of 2008 turnout)

    46.67% Democrat, 36.78% Republican, a 10-point gap.

    If you assume the crossover vote cancels out, that means Republicans are winning Independents by 32 points. In reality that margin is almost certainly smaller and Republicans have an equivalent advantage on the crossover vote. But even if Rasmussen’s early vote internal is off a few points the trendline is very favorable.

    • housebroken dad
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Right.
      Approx 98k votes for D
      Approx 77k votes for R
      Approx 35k votes no party

      According to Ras, Romney is leading 60/40 among Indys so 21k votes for R & 14k votes for D.
      So new tallies would be:
      Approx 112k votes for D
      Approx 98k votes for R

      He’s about 14k votes behind right now.

  5. Kevin
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In order for Romney to win Nevada, he has to win by at least 3 or 4 points since SEIU is contracted out to run the voting machines.

    • Dave
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yup I’d (somewhat) concur with this, facetiousness or not. The insane media bias this election, greater than I can ever remember it being, for one candidate quite possibly underscores the intentions of the e stablishment. Disney, Comcast/GE, Time Warner and Viacom all have benefited tremendously under Obama though economic initiatives of his administration. Europe has benefited from Us assistance to prop up the Euro (in the form of $$$ and bond-buying assistance) and god knows what else (countries?). Romney has all but threatened to stop this largeese and take away the punch bowl. There is much $$$ on the line for Europe, the corporations, wall street, not to mention personal reputations of Obama and Bernanke. EXecutives continue to pour money into Obamas campaign at a furious pace. Why?

      With such a rediculoius bias on every single news media web site (except Fox) for what has been the entire year – and I’m talking about on the web, television national and local, given Obamas out-to-lunch first debtate that wasn’t even passible as a commander in chief (figured he didn’t have to prep for debate), given his inane comments the past couple years such as ‘when I am reelected’ and ‘let’s talk after the election, I’ll have more room then’, given the consistent over-smapling of democrats in many polls, one has to wonder if the objective isn’t to shape expectations for a close race then just run the ballot boxes in counties and states needing that little extra push.

      Media outllets don’t care about social issues, they care about cash, And the biggest source of cash the past 4 years has been the government for these guys. It’s hard to just let that disappear because of some silly election.

      I hope none of this is true but it gotta to make you wonder.

  6. No Tribe
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Mark Warner is having to do damage control in Virginia over the fallout from Obama’s last debate talking about cutting the navy ships.

    http://news.investors.com/politics-andrew-malcolm/102412-630545-obama-mocks-romney-revealing-his-own-ignorance.htm?p=full

    Obama’s foray into trying to school Romney about military terms has made him the laughing stock.

  7. stephanie
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For anybody whose interested, Foxnews.com is live streaming Romney rally in Reno, Nevada.

  8. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s a new Ohio poll .. Obama +5. Tied 45-45 on those who have yet to vote, but 0 leads 60 to 30 with early voters.
    It seems like we are heading toward a bitter disappointment, or these polls are being massively distorted by erroneous early voter numbers. http://swampland.time.com/2012/10/24/time-poll-obama-leads-by-5-in-ohio/

    • Kevin
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      When you look at the details of the poll, there was 37% Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 29% Independents polled.

      In order for Time Magazine to give Obama a 5 point lead in Ohio, they had to over sample Democrats by 9 percentage points.

      Details on page 46.

      http://timeswampland.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/timepoll.pdf

      We’re not headed towards a bitter disappointment, don’t buy into the propaganda of how the media over polls Democrats to give Obama a lead.

      • zang
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

        I think it is the early voting question which is resulting in these heavily skewed polls.

      • Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

        Thanks for digging that out. Too many pages on the iPhone. 9 percent. Plus the early vote tilt, and they still only got Obama to 49 percent. They’ll just say the undecideds broke for Romney to cover later on as to why they got it so wrong.

      • Keith W
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

        Re-weight to a 34d 31r 29i sample and you get O-47.53% R-45.32%. That’s a crude re-weighting, but in a somewhat realistic turnout model, Obama is at 47.5%….not good.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

        I’m glad this poll at least shows you how it looks for those who have already voted vs. those likely to vote as well as the addition of the two. I did a re-weighting as well (the likely+already voted sample was D+6 if I am correct), down to D+2 and it basically shows a toss-up race, as I would expect. Basically if Obama can turn out some of his people and not have 2004-style domination by Republicans to the polls, he still has a chance in Ohio. Looking at all these Ohio polls, it appears that if Romney can have 2004-type turnout Obama is automatically toast.

      • Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

        yeah but however you weight it, it’s still an Obama lead. No one wants to go into election day DOWN. If Romney is to win, with a MAJOR turnout, then he has to be ahead or at worst TIED by the RCP average on election day. Until then this is Obama’s race to lose.

      • jmar
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

        300 out of 742 respondents are unemployed? Am I seeing things?

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

        Well, pretty much the only way you’re going to get that lead in a poll in the raw (and produce good press and PR for Romney) is for Romney to be so dominating in the electorate that Obama loses EVEN with D+6 to D+10 turnout as these polls suggest (but even I doubt is actually reality). In a true swing state like Ohio, that’s pretty damn hard to achieve.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Check party ID. Way out of wack.

      • mchlgregg
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

        I’ve been learning more and more about polls this election cycle but I’m still a little worried about this poll based upon the following statement from Time Politics:

        @TIMEPolitics
        RT @michaelscherer: TIME Ohio poll +9 D ID advantage is in line with recent Fox News Ohio poll (+8 D) and CBS/Quin Ohio Poll (+9 D)

        Thoughts?

  9. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s a poll from a Democrat pollster (Celinda Lake) showing it a 2 point race (46-44). Funny how the Democrat pollsters like Lake and PPP are producing more reasonable results than the MSM pollsters! http://lakeresearch.com/news/USA/LRP_Memo_on_OH_Survey_Toplines_102412.pdf

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Democrat pollster showing a 2 point lead with 9% undecided. I’ll buy that. A 2-1 split of the undecided brings Romney in ahead, 50-49.

  10. Jan
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    PPP poll shows Obama +4 in Nevada. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_1024.pdf

    42D – 36R – 23I, but the numbers on question 15 show the people in the sample regards itself as moderate to conservative. I don’t think I like that number much.

    • zang
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Among those who say they’ve already voted he has a
      61/39 advantage. Romney is up 51/46 with those planning to vote between now and
      election day.” Although Keith does not address PPP polls, I’d love to see him address this. Have that many people voted early already?

  11. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If the Dems really hold such a big early voting advantage, the old Republican joke about hoping for bad weather on election day may not be so funny (at least for Republicans).

  12. Eric
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just a comment on the campaign advertising in the battleground states. I’ve been analyzing where the campaigns are spending their money looking for trends.

    In the past week, the Obama campaign dramatically increased their ads in Wisconsin from $0.77 million to $1.90 million. That represents an increase from 4.2% of their total ad spending to 9.0%. They didn’t really cut back anywhere. They actually increased spending everywhere, but increased it dramatically in Wisconsin.

    If you look at PrioritiesUSA (the Obama SuperPAC), you can see what they have been up to as well. Not much change for them in the past week. The week before that though they slashed ads in Wisconsin and Florida and came on the air in Nevada with a heavy ad buy in Nevada. They had previous small ad buys in Nevada back in May and again in September, but nothing like what they are doing now in Nevada.

    As for the Romney campaign, they scaled back in Wisconsin and in North Carolina. I’m not sure why they would cut back in Wisconsin. North Carolina makes sense. It’s a small cutback in Wisconsin. Maybe they just moved to a cheaper ad market. I don’t know. The cutback in North Carolina was pretty large.

    In the next day or two I should be able to get numbers for the current week’s ad buys and I can update those when I get them.

  13. Ron
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    No point in getting overly worked up over bogus polls at this point. Yes, OH is where it’s at, but we’re holding our own there. Both Romney and Ryan have been attracting big and enthusiastic crowds while Obama hasn’t. Obama’s youth vote is down; his Jewish vote is down; his Catholic vote is down. Romney’s doing better with Independents. Dem registration is down. Dem early vote is down. Rasmussen has the race tied in OH, up a point from the last poll, so that’s a positive small trend. Romney’s also ahead nationally–which is normally reflected closely in the OH vote on election day. In fact Republicans normally do better than expected in OH, and did so even in 2008. It’s nerve-wracking, given the stakes, but I’d rather be us than them at this point.

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