Last night’s Washoe County win was such a big deal that I stayed up until ~3am to get that post out. Now we have today’s #s and it’s another big win for the GOP. Republican turnout was 3954 ballots cast compared to 3782 by the Democrats. I have to say my crude little model is at least in the ballpark with these numbers. Clearly wrong but not absurdly. The big miss is obviously the combined improvement by the GOP and sub-par performance by the Democrats. The Republican estimate was 3592 (low by 10%) and the Democrats estimate was 3985 for Democrats (5% too high). But that level of conservative assumptions was inherent in a model predicated on 2008 trends where the comparative advantage for the Democrats was enormous then and dramatically changed today. What can I say, I like conservative models (you do know Kate Upton’s uncle is a GOP Congressman, right?).
The full saying is once is an accident, twice is a coincidence and three times is a trend but does anyone see a trend here?
This is really eating into the Democrats lead in Washoe. It is down to 1214 ballots cast versus 5465 in 2008, a 4251 ballot cast improvement for the GOP. The rate of change in GOP improvement has been 8.6% per day this cycle and my model only assumes a 3.85% improvement. At a 3.85% growth rate from here on out the GOP would have an advantage going into election day of ~9000 ballots cast versus the deficit of ~12000 in 2008 — enough to basically swing Washoe with no crossover votes. For fun, I punched in the 8.6% rate of change and the GOP would have a 20,000 ballot advantage by election day. I’ll wait one more day to plug in a new rate of change but Team Nevada is getting it done in 2012. Major kudos.