Back-to-Back Washoe County Wins for Team Nevada in Early Voting

Last night’s Washoe County win was such a big deal that I stayed up until ~3am to get that post out.  Now we have today’s #s and it’s another big win for the GOP. Republican turnout was 3954 ballots cast compared to 3782 by the Democrats. I have to say my crude little model is at least in the ballpark with these numbers. Clearly wrong but not absurdly. The big miss is obviously the combined improvement by the GOP and sub-par performance by the Democrats. The Republican estimate was 3592 (low by 10%) and the Democrats estimate was 3985 for Democrats (5% too high). But that level of conservative assumptions was inherent in a model predicated on 2008 trends where the comparative advantage for the Democrats was enormous then and dramatically changed today.  What can I say, I like conservative models (you do know Kate Upton’s uncle is a GOP Congressman, right?).

The full saying is once is an accident, twice is a coincidence and three times is a trend but does anyone see a trend here?

This is really eating into the Democrats lead in Washoe.  It is down to 1214 ballots cast versus 5465 in 2008, a 4251 ballot cast improvement for the GOP. The rate of change in GOP improvement has been 8.6% per day this cycle and my model only assumes a 3.85% improvement. At a 3.85% growth rate from here on out the GOP would have an advantage going into election day of ~9000 ballots cast versus the deficit of ~12000 in 2008 — enough to basically swing Washoe with no crossover votes. For fun, I punched in the 8.6% rate of change and the GOP would have a 20,000 ballot advantage by election day. I’ll wait one more day to plug in a new rate of change but Team Nevada is getting it done in 2012.  Major kudos.

18 Comments

  1. Tom
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:37 am | Permalink | Reply

    Excellent work Keith. You are confirming why Romney is in NV campaigning and in my opinion why Romney will win NV. Mitt-mentum

  2. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    Any thoughts on the PPP poll? I believe it was a national poll that shows Mitt up by 2 with a +6D sample and 10% more women than men!!! http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/10/23/paul_begala_yeah_team_obamas_giving_up_on_north_carolina It’s at the bottom of this article. I looked at the pdf and it says 55% women 45% men.

    • Tom
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yes I saw that poll earlier today. Absolutely devastating for Dear Leader. The evidence is everywhere .. Mitt-mentum.

  3. Tom
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    Another thing to keep in mind is that Romney is leading with independents. Lets conservatively say it is 6% lead in NV at 53-47 as opposed to 2008 when according to a Fox exit poll they went 56-40 obama. That is a 22% swing with independents and coupled with the increased GOP turnout you are documenting will swing this state to Romney.

    • Brian
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s been one of the stickier parts about turning Nevada red. I believe independents in the state still favor Obama (narrowly).

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      I wish Romney was leading with Independent in Nevada but he has been consistently behind with them.

  4. Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    There is an important difference between Washoe County and Clark County. Washoe county is working with Team Nevada to help elect Romney and Heller. The state and Clark County parties are estranged from Team Nevada, as neither trusts the other. The better the GOP does in Washoe, the less the lead the Dems can get away with in Clark County. That being said the registration advantage the Dems have in Clark County is huge, and larger than it was in ’08, comparatively.

  5. valleyforge
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 12:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    Don’t count on the 2008 trend replicating. Republicans may be engaging earlier but that doesn’t necessarily mean their numbers will continue climbing relative to Democrats. Of course even if they flattened out at this level they’d still win early voting in Washoe and keep it close statewide.

    Unlike Iowa, Obama won the election day turnout in 2008, so it may not be enough to merely keep the early voting close. Clarke county margin will determine it.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think this has been understood since the beginning.

  6. Alex
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:10 am | Permalink | Reply

    I would argue that Washoe County, Nevada, is the perfect bellwether county, indicative of voter turnout and results in Nevada and the nation as a whole:

    In 2004 Bush won Washoe County by a margin of 51% to 47%. Similarly, Bush won the State of Nevada 51% to 48% and the nation 51% to 48%. In the Senate race that year Harry Reid won Washoe County 58% to 38%. He won statewide 61% to 35%. In 2006 Senator Ensign won Washoe County by a margin of 56% to 40% and he won the State by a similar margin of 55% to 41%. Likewise, in 2008 Obama won Washoe County by a margin of 55% to 43% which was identical to his state margin: 55% to 43% and actually fairly close to his national result: 53% to 46%. In 2010 Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle by 50% to 45% in Washoe County and also statewide 50% to 45%. So for the last four election cycles (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010) Washoe County was a good measure for Nevada’s statewide electorate and in 2004 and 2008 a good bellwether for the national electorate.

    If Romney wins Washoe County then he likely wins the election.

  7. M.Remmerde
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    Off topic, but wanted to post this…

    The polls showing Romney leading clearly are pushing their leaners better. Just adding the numbers to find the Other/Undecided (O/U) remainders:

    Rasmussen R50 O46 = 4 O/U
    ABC WaPo R49 O48 = 3 O/U
    Gallup R51 O46 = 3 O/U

    Meanwhile the strong Obama polls…

    IBD/TIPP O47 R45 = 8 O/U
    CBS O48 R46 = 6 O/U
    NBC/WSJ O47 R47 = 6 O/U

    And given how we know undecideds often break at least 2:1 (and really it’s closer to 3:1) for challengers in true incumbent elections, I’d be nervous if I were an Obama supporter and had to pin my hopes on those last three poll results.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think you are on to it their MR. That’s basically why we can look at Obama’s final poll average and make a good assumption that is very close to his final number.

  8. housebroken dad
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    Here are the Clark Cty early voting stats through day 4:

    2008
    D 52,525
    R 23,665

    2012
    D 61,726
    R 38,236

    17.5% inc for D
    61.5% inc for R

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      What is Ralston saying now? Two days is a trend my friend.

One Trackback

  1. […] For prior day’s post on Washoe early voting see: Washoe County Early Vote Shocker and Back to Back Washoe County Wins for Team Nevada. […]

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