All Tied Up in Michigan — Foster White McCollum and Baydou

Our friends from Foster White McCollum and Baydou (FWMB) have another intriguing survey of Michigan showing the race all tied up at 47 a piece (h/t cbpds):

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 47
Other 2
Undecided 4

For anyone quick to dismiss FWMB, read this post first, and dismiss the results at your own peril. Much of the criticism revolves around the fact that FWMB gives complete transparency with they numbers which allows people who don’t like the results cherry pick data and misrepresent the weightings and findings.  If you review the polls of FWMB that I’ve blogged they are rarely too far off the media and usually ahead of the curve.  If you poll enough you’ll have an outlier or two and that is true for FWMB.  But throughout this cycle I have been impressed with their transparency and willingness to face substantive critics head on. Considering how consistently awful Marist polls have been it is incredible people criticize FWMB but leave Marist unchallenged solely because Marist tells them what they want to hear.  On election night, we’ll all know how everyone did.

[link to follow when available]

56 Comments

  1. Brian
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    *prays*

  2. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What I find amazing is it takes 35,000 calls to get 1100 responses. I am sure that is the norm, but it brings new light to the concept of “random selection” in polling.

    • Dave Ped
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is what i though too. Only 3% responded to the survey. What group is most likely to duck the survey?

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

        People with jobs and kids.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I was called this afternoon for a poll, but once the lady found out I was driving she said she was not allowed to proceed.

      • Brad
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

        Because they “don’t want” to poll people with who can afford a car or even gas for their car, they are not the 47% they are looking for

      • Joshua
        Posted October 25, 2012 at 8:58 am | Permalink

        Probably because they’re concerned about liability if someone has an accident while on the phone with them. Are there cell phone-driving laws in Michigan? (Or in your state, if it’s not Michigan?)

  3. Dennis
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    See the new Time poll which RCP is counting in it average with 49 Obama to 44 Romney. Party ID split 37 Dem to 28 Rep. Amazing! Clearly the polls are being used as a political weapon for Obama.

    • Dave Ped
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      O won MI by 16 in 08 and OH by 5 so if MI is even then what is OH?

  4. Kevin
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That poll was done by a Democrat friendly polling firm Baydoun/Foster.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

    I’m sure they over sampled Democrats, but I can’t locate the internals of the poll.

    If Michigan flips, election night will be like how Dandy Don use to end Monday Night Football.

  5. Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It’s not horribly out of whack with other polls, most of which are now a week old. There’s a few obama+2, obama+3 in the RCP average.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What I used to do is take a handfull of current polls and create a “superpoll” based on the sample size. For example if Romney had 52% in the poll, I would take 0.52 and multiply it by the sample size. Then I would add up all of the “votes” and weight them against the total. This means a poll with n=1500 would be twice as important of a poll of n=750. Then I would take the arithmic average of the polls and do a geometric average which give that candides score.

      Example only

      Poll 1 – n= 1000 Romney 52 Obama 48
      Poll 2 – n= 500 Romney 51 Obama 47
      Poll 3 – n = 900 Romney 50 Obama 49

      Romney = 1000 X 0.52 + 500 X 0.51 + 900 X 0.50 = 1225, Romney = 1225/2400 = 51.04
      Obama = 1000 X 0.48+ 500 X 0.47 + 900 X 0.49 = 1156, Obama = 1156/2400 = 48.17

      Final Romney = sqrt(51.04 X average(52,51,50)) = 51.02
      Final Obama = sqrt(48.17X average(48,47,49)) = 48.08

      Error = 1.26 X (sqrt((0.5102 X 0.4808)/2399))) = 1.28

  6. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is why “restore our future” is putting money in Michigan instead of Pennsylvania at this point.

    • spottedreptile
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And it’s personal for Mitt. He wants his home State.

  7. Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Holy crap. No way Romney is behind in Ohio then.

  8. Evan3457
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, are the internals available for this poll? They’re not available at the Fox News story on the poll.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not yet. Eric Foster has me on his distribution list but I’m guessing he has to hold it back so the TV station gets the exclusive as well as the attention before they release it. They paid for it so they have that right.

      • Evan3457
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

        Fair enough. I check this site a couple of times a day now, so I’ll check back before I go to bed, and then tomorrow morning sometime. Thanks for replying so quickly.

  9. Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, great job posting this poll the moment it was published. Speed counts.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks

    • NHConservative
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just FYI, I’m in marketing an response rates, whether it be cold calling, or email, range between 3-5%. The response rates here are inline.

  10. spottedreptile
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The logistics of placing 35,000 calls is mind-boggling. Is this normal these days? The response rate seems real low as well. How long did it take them to do those calls?

  11. Medicine Man
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I would like to see internals and another Michigan poll that backs this up. I was in Ann Arbor today and in ’04, every other house had a sign “ARREST BUSH FOR WAR CRIMES”. On my way to U of M hospital for some research work, I saw all of ONE Obama sign…..so, anything is possible.

  12. Pete
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting. Waiting for Peter Palco to tell us why this poll should be disregarded.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m guessing “internals” and “party ID” might suddenly mean something after all, LOL

  13. Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think both the Super PACs and maybe even Romney’s camp, to a lesser extent, see Michigan as fertile ground. Ohio’s unemployment rate has improved under Kasich and people are more optimistic in the state – though hopefully the connect the dots and realize what the GOP has done for Ohio it can do for the nation.

    Michigan’s unemployment rate is over 9%, so the auto bailout probably will not carry as much weight as some might think. As Barone noted, Michigan can swing on the affluent Detroit suburbs changing hands, just as Pennsylvania can move if the Philly suburbs turn. Ohio, as Barone stated, is a tougher nut to crack because it has far less affluent ‘burbs that can swing ala 1988.

    I think Ohio will swing, but remember that the suburbs can cancel out Detroit proper in Michigan – and outside of Detroit, Michigan is more Republican than you might think.

    It’s similar in Wisconsin and Minnesota – especially with that gay marriage vote on the ballot. I am really expected Minnesota to go red and I think Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan may just go red with it. I expect Ohio to come along for the ride too and I think Romney will eek it out at near 51%. I actually think his margin may be bigger in Michigan, PA, and WI. Minnesota will be close too, but this seems like the perfect storm for Minnesota to finally go GOP for the first time since 1972.

    Oregon is worth watching too as the last poll I saw didn’t have Obama getting to 50%.

  14. zang
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That Ohio poll definitely had an impact on some peoples’ perceptions of the race. As of this morning, Obama was down to about 53 or 54% on Intrade. After the Time Ohio poll was released, he almost immediately shot right back to 60% As I understand it, Obama has no interest in running as a Trumanesque underdog. They want the “inevitability” meme back.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think the Bengazi had something to do with bringing it down.mGallup coming down helped bring it up. It is fine. Like some earlier posts, as soon as the first Romney poll where he is up, it is going back down again.

  15. Paul8148
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Travis county texas is down over 20,000 voters after two days of early voting. Up over 50,000 in just the 15th biggest counites after day 2 from 2008

    • Eric
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That’s a good indicator of where turnout will be elsewhere. For those who don’t know, Travis county is Austin, the liberal capitol of Texas surrounded by a sea of conservatism.

      • zang
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

        Home of Ronnie Earle

    • Kevin
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You mean the home of “Keep Austin Weird” is down by 20,000 voters in early voting?

      Wow, that says a lot about the lack of enthusiasm from the college students for Obama.

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bexar county (San Antonio) set voting turnout record the first 2 days of early voting. Tough congressional race and local issues here, but it makes it interesting. My guess … Voters can’t wait to vote for R/R.

    • drsnsatx
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bexar county (San Antonio) set an early voting record the first 2 days of early voting. Over 30,000 on day 1. Tough congressional race and local issue, but I think folks want to vote for R/R as soon as they can. Good news on Travis.

  16. Todd
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So much for the auto bailout blowback. ….

    • Todd
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Also ,interesting that Grandholm wrote a piece today trying to sway Michigan from Romney. Timing? Maybe the obama internals are confirming?

      • Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

        That will actually help Romney. Granholm isn’t that popular up there.

      • Brian
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

        LOL, that’s putting it mildly. I believe the plague would poll better than Granholm here in Michigan right now. There’s a reason she fled to the Bay Area when her reign of terror in the mitten ended. I can’t imagine anyone doing a worse job as Governor of a state, anywhere, ever.

  17. Eric
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Time poll in Ohio considered 97% of their respondents to be Likely Voters, even when only 64% said they were watching the election very closely. Turnout is usually somewhere around 60% or so I think in the USA. Their poll is basically a Registered Voter poll.

    Among those who are watching the election very closely it’s Obama 51, Romney 49 even in the slanted Time poll.

    They also under-sampled evangelical Christians. They have them as 18.5% of voters when they were 25% in 2004 and 27% in 2008. They might be 30% in 2012. At least 25% though. Those errors alone put Romney in the lead in Ohio.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “They also under-sampled evangelical Christians.”- Probably the story of every poll ever.

  18. allthingsgeography1
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well that’s disconcerting to say the least. LOL

  19. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Since these people operate out of Michigan, they probably have a good handle on their state’s voting demographics, no?

  20. Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Another poll, another 47% for Obama. According to Tucker Carlson he overpolls, so it really means he is at 45%.

    • stephanie
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just heard from Dick Morris on Foxnews, he said according to his own poll conducted last week in Michigan, it was 45-44 obama. Just a confirmation that MI is all tied up! Go Romney/Ryan!

      • Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

        You’ve got an incumbent that can’t get close to 50% and Tucker is right, you can usually take about 2 points off of him in all likelihood – he overpolls. He’s got a lot of soft support that will leech off of him.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Is there anything to back up that claim of overpolling? Where did Tucker make this analysis. Would be interesting to research…

      • Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

        I have no idea, but Tucker isn’t exactly a member of the VRWC. He told Sean Hannity that Obama even overpolls in exit polls.

  21. Medicine Man
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I get this crazy feeling that BO is going to get 47% in the end nationally along with many state elections….

    • Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think people will be shocked when he only pulls around 52-53 in Mass and California.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

        Last CA poll I saw O had 53%

    • Ron
      Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Isn’t that where Obama’s job approval has been for the most part of the past few years?

      • Ron
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

        I meant at 47 percent.

  22. Dubs
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 9:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I can see the Drudge headline on the morning of Nov. 7 underneath a picture of Obama “47%”

  23. Ron
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 11:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Another thing: this is a local pollster–not part of the D.C.-NYC media loop. This is starting to look like 1980. (Fingers crossed.)

  24. nelson
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 1:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    RON, the poll always had obama at low numbers or tied. That poll is has the biggest republican leaning bias, following Gravis marketing. Also, there ARE local polls as well, did you not check the Detroit News poll or the other ones.

  25. Bob
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 9:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Oh yea Ron…. It’s absolutely 1980 all over againg,,, Iran Hostage Crisis and the economy in the crapper…. OK… It’s not going to be a 10 Point Ronnie (Reagan) Route but maybe a 6 point Romney Route…. My very first vote of my life was Reagan ’80 and this looks eerily the same..

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: