Who Says There is an Enthusiasm Problem for Obama? His campaign manager Jim Messina


  1. Pete
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I guess there wasnt enough Obama-money and Obamaphones to go around.

  2. Pete
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    0 may have bigger problems if this is to be believed (FWIW):

    @ConArtCritic Unnamed source: Romney has NC VA FL– playing well in CO, now narrowly leads in OH– will not play for PA aggressively.

    @ConArtCritic Should say that is a Democratic source, and one who wisely advised me on WIprimary night no big Obama push to help Barrett (“race lost”)

    @ConArtCritic In other words same guy who told me to BE cocky about R turnout in Wisconsin recall primary and that Obama not interested in helping Barrett

    @ConArtCritic Now telling me the D talk about WI CO NH IA etc is to distract from a narrow loss in Ohio.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      A Democratic source is telling you that Romney won’t play aggressively for PA? How would he know?

      • Posted October 23, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

        because they have internals too. And while 4 or 5 points may seem like it is in play but if that is a rock solid, concrete 5 points, it is not worth the tens of millions this late it will take to flip it.

        Obama is moving into Florida, Wisc and Ohio…that tells me knows either Iowa, Colorado or Nevada are gone and he has to try and flip a flipped state back. Ie if Romney takes Ohio then Obama has to have Florida and one of the other three.

        His firewall is becoming a trap in which he will end up being painted into a corner and unable to beat back the flames

  3. Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Pete from your fingertips to God’s ears.

    I did just read that Obama is moving NC staffers out of and into Ohio and FLORIDA? Does he think Florida is still in play or just playing up because of the debate being there last night/>

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That’s what Obama will do with NC– move it all into Florida.

  4. Ron
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    My guess is that OH is slipping away from Obama. CO and VA must be beyond reach. So his internals must be forcing him to return to FL–or he loses. It shows desperation imo.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yea, he’s got better demographics in Florida to bet on than in Ohio. If he’s there back in Florida on Monday, bet on it.

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      he cant lost Ohio and still win….unless he did take Florida, IA, CO, NV, NH, etc.

      bascially either guy is screwed without OH

      • Ron
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:17 am | Permalink

        Romney could win without OH by taking WI and IA or IA and NV or WI and NH or MI and NH or IA, NV and NH or–you get the idea. Mitt’s not taking any chances. He’s fighting everywhere it matters–except for PA, a very expensive market.

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Florida is not much better for him. He can only try to prop himself up in Miami. We’ve had multiple polls showing Romney up by more than 5 and I’ve heard in the campaign of consistent internal polling of him up by more than six. Obama has lost the senior vote here. Here in Tampa Bay, the Romney signs and bumper stickers are more prominent than any campaign I have ever seen. It all started after the first debate. I have seen NO Obama signs on our major roadways, but hundreds of Romney signs, large and small. Many businesses have put up large Romney/Ryan signs – something I have never seen happen.

      I expect Romney to win Florida by a wide margin. We’ll have a Republican turnout advantage like we usually do. As I’ve told many, we have a supermajority of Republicans in both state houses. All of our elected executive officials are Republicans. Our House delegation is dominated by the GOP. Obama won by 2% in a wave year with 50.9%. There’s no reason to expect he can clear 50% this time. The indies are trending to him by over 10 points and the GOP will turnout more than the Dems – R+1 or R+2. That means we may see a 10 point plus victory. That would not surprise me.

      Obama broke even in Tampa Bay last time, when you break down all the counties. That won’t happen this time. My estimates show Romney probably getting 250-300K more votes than Obama just in Tampa Bay. Duval will also go Romney and Orange probably will as well, but narrowly. The independent swing will also lower the Obama margin in Miami-Dade. And the Jewish vote in Broward and Palm Beach will further narrow the margins. I expect Romney to win Florida by 500,000 votes or more.

  5. ACruz
    Posted October 25, 2012 at 10:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Reno, NV Romney Rally Oct. 24 – Report from NV – After seeing your posts on Crowd Sizes I saw this website truthful and factual. Actual Obama Rally sizes compared to false over estimates by the Obama Hope and Change Holdouts, I had to travel from Sacramento to Reno through a snow storm to see an actual Rally for myself. What I saw was a fully energetic crowd with huge swell of momentum growing in size and support inside. The Convention Center was packed with very limited filled seating and standing room only over flow space that included with many independent voting seniors who had stated they never attended a rally or voted before out standing for hours to support Romney. There was no marketing or any incentives gimmicks to attend : it was truly organic crowd. I even spoke with University of Nevada, Reno students who stated that on the contrary the Obama Rally were low on attendance and seats were only filled due to the fact that the instructors and professors made their students attend the rally by requiring attendance as student criteria for their final grades. This is a topic I would like you to address and see if this is happening in other college towns across the battleground states. Also please focus on true crowd sizes in Ohio its seems to be “the” swing state. Kudos for your truthful factual reports and messaging.

One Trackback

  1. […] in 2008 — a turnout credibly shown to actually be D +5. And as any reader know, Obama’s 2012 turnout will be nothing like his 2008 […]

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