Romney super PAC buys TV time in … Maine

Thanks to a smart observer shooting this my way … expanding the Battlegrounds:

Restore Our Future, the Super PAC supporting Mitt Romney, has reserved television airtime in Maine beginning later this week, according to a Republican source tracking media buys. The group plans to air $300,000 worth of ads in the Bangor, Presque Isle and Portland-Auburn markets, the latter of which also covers parts of New Hampshire, from Oct. 25 through Oct. 29. The move suggests Romney allies see Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses the state’s northern reaches, as fertile ground for the Republican.

Maine allocates its electoral votes by congressional district, and winning a single vote there could be a factor in a tight race. Surveying the map of contested swing states, one scenario jumps out: If Obama loses Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado and Iowa, but holds Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire and Nevada, he still picks up the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But a victory for Romney in Maine’s 2nd District would push that total back down to 269 votes and force a tie in the Electoral College.

17 Comments

  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    TIPP last three days of tracking poll:

    Sun +6 Obama
    Mon +4 Obama
    Tue +2 Obama

    Could Nate Silver be more wrong?

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      he actually lowered Romney’s chances of winning today to under 30%
      He still rates Romneys chances in NH as under 30%, Virginia he has Romney at 49% chance. I am not sure of his model. I think it weights voter registration advantages for democrats and what he considers positive economic news more heavy than what is actually going on.

      because I dont think there is ANYONE who would say Obama’s performace the last week and two debates is that of a man with a 71% chance of being re-elected.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        Nate’s model is interesting, but I don’t take too much credence into it. This is mostly because this depends on the accuracy of the polling which can be hit or miss depending on the actual turnout and also on the strength of certain current events to sway voters. I’ve paid less attention to it lately because it seems increasingly counter-intuitive. Doesn’t mean it may not be accurate, but like weather forecast models (I have some training in meteorology, although I’m technically not a meteorologist), the accuracy may increase dramatically within a relatively short period of time leading up to the forecast event (in this case, the election). If Romney is to ultimately win, we may see his model begin to quickly reflect this in the coming days as there seems to be increasing consistency in Romney’s national lead and polling out of Ohio may finally respond. If Obama is to ultimately win, the model may hunker down on it. This is assuming it has any accuracy at all. I’m not sure what Nate has done to calibrate it, like doing forecasts for previous elections using the same type of data and seeing what results (like the UC forecast did for 1980-2008, which had very good accuracy). It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out when the dust settles.

      • WillBest
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

        Nate will weight polls differently based on his own gut feeling about them. He will literally weight polls that are two weeks old more than polls that are brand new from the same polling firm.

  2. Jon
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Yup, ME2 is in play. Portland, my so much. They could spreading the wealth to Summers too. Te national parties have not paid any attention, and angus king is needing the help of Bloomberg and other NY billionaires to keep his dreams alive.

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Are you saying that the Republican could pull out the Maine Senate race?

      • Jon
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        Yes, last I heard was 8 points diff.

        Now, there is outside money pouring into Kings Campaign with some shady backing going on.

        Maine might be the shocker of the election.

  3. Kent Ostby
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Given some of the scenarios that would put Romney and Obama tied at 270, going for ME-2 might make an actual difference.

    • Jon
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You can’t have 270 tie. Only 269

      • petep
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

        Nice and smart.

  4. NHConservative
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen just posted CT #’s…Romney is only down by 7%. 52-45. That’s kind of crazy for being such a blue state all these years. You’d think it would be double digits.

    • Eric
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lots of suburban voters in Connecticut.

    • Michel Daoud
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in CT, specifically a very Jewish area (West Hartford -37% Jewish), and the change from 4 years ago is astounding. You had to look long and hard to find a McCain sign 4 years ago, today Romney and Linda McMahon signs are everywhere. I’m actually quite shocked, just based on the signs, it would seem as though Romney is actually winning. I think the reality is that CT will obviously go for Obama, but it’s looking like a 5-8 point margin this time around, whereas 4 years ago he won the state by 22 points.

      I think Linda will win the Senate race by 3%.

    • spottedreptile
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am so going to laugh if Romney pulls out a strong popular vote win. He can if blues like Maine NJ, and CT etc are weak for Obama, and he polls very strongly in red states. Imagine the backpedaling of the anti-EC Left over that.

  5. Kevin
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Crossroads GPS, and American Crossroads are doing a big ad buy for Senators. One of the states they’re targeting is Maine. Is something going on in Maine that has slipped under the radar?

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/263499-crossroads-gps-american-crossroads-launches-8-million-ad-buy-in-eight-senate-races

  6. RhodyKev
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This blog has the best analysis and commentary I have found. Thanks Keith and all contributors. Really enjoy it.
    I’m in deep blue RI and I read a comment about jaded conservatives in the Northeast – well that fit’s me pretty well I think.
    For what it’s worth, I have actually been very surpised to see a few RR yard signs pop up recently and so far NO OB yard signs, bumper stickers yes, but no signs.

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thx RhodyKev. It’s a labor of love … I just want to win 🙂

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