Romney +2 in New Hampshire — American Research Group

New Hampshire remains a sneaky pro-Romney state within the Battleground context.  I’m your typical jaded conservative in the Northeast frustrated with the reflexive liberal bent to this region.  New Hampshire is that last holdout and I have to say this election far more than any other in recent memory every time I look at the state I really think it is going to break for Romney.  The voters know him well due to its proximity to Boston and Obama’s activist policies don’t mesh well with the “Live Free or Die” state making it ripe for the taking.  The latest from  American Research shows Mitt Romney with a slender 2-point lead, 49 to 47.  Independents are dead even 48 to 48 and that’s an important voter group often accounting for over 40% of the New Hampshire electorate.

The party ID is R +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Ind 36). In 2008 it was also D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44). This poll is very low on Independents and too high on Republicans.  It is within the 2004 and 2008 bounds but still a bit too many Republicans.  I’d prefer something closer to R +2. Obama is stumping in the Granite state so his poll numbers must be showing not much different in this poll.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 49
Other 1
Undecided 3


  1. damien
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    The party ID is D +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Ind 36

    looks like its r 6…..hey ill take it lol

    • damien
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:36 am | Permalink | Reply

      lets hope if romney wins he has enough coattails to save one or both of the house races…i agree it should be R2..

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      My write-up reflects R +6 but I get so used to writing “D+” I just defaulted to it. Thanks for catching that.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama is headed to NH on Sat. Nothing yet from Romney on his plans beyond Thur morning in Ohio.

    • Dave Ped
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am in NH and there are a lot of pro R adds and third part adds pointing out how bad the last 4 years have been. I hear them on the radio and see them on TV. Seems like R has stepped up in NH and the yard signs are popping up everywhere. The NRA is making calls too. O is coming to Nashua on Sat and I think it is to try to “save” NH from falling but I honestly don’t think it will work

  3. Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:38 am | Permalink | Reply

    Bad poll for Zero, despite the undersampling of Indiess. In 2008, he won Indies by 20% and in this poll they are tied. Crossovers are about the same, but Indies have left the zero camp.

  4. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well, with respect to party ID, even PPP in their last NH poll was R+6 with Romney up 1. I’m sure they would have reported R+3 if that was what they saw in the field.

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