Restore Our Future (Pro-Romney) SuperPAC Launches $17.7 million Ad Campaign

You can’t take it with you and Restore Our Future is unloading the ammunition (bayonets and all!)  in these final weeks:

Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, released two new TV spots as part of a $17.7 million ad campaign launched Tuesday in 10 battleground states.

One ad, “Genuinely Cares,” features an on-camera testimonial from Sgt. Peter Damon, whose injuries while serving in Iraq left him a double amputee. Damon recalls meeting Romney when the GOP nominee was serving as Massachusetts governor and says Romney “helped make a huge difference” in his life. The commercial showcases the compassionate side of Romney, who has often struggled to connect and has been branded as out of touch by his opponents.

The second ad, “Better,” focuses on President Barack Obama’s economic policies. A narrator states that “high unemployment has become normal” during Obama’s first term, while also citing the debt and credit downgrades. The spot is a similar to previous ads that have targeted the president’s economic record.

Both ads will air between Oct. 23 and Oct. 29 and will be rotated across the ten states, according to a press release from the super PAC. A state-by-state breakdown of the ad buy is below. Not surprisingly, $7 million of the total is geared toward Ohio and Florida — considered the must-win states this cycle.

  • Colorado: $1.2 million
  • Florida: $4.0 million
  • Iowa: $1.2 million
  • Michigan: $1.6 million
  • Nevada: $1.6 million
  • New Hampshire: $0.5 million
  • North Carolina: $1.8 million
  • Ohio: $3.0 million
  • Virginia: $2.9 million
  • Wisconsin: $1.3 million

The selections are smart tactically as these states put Romney well over 270 so why get greedy and potentially leave one of these on the table.  Putting the bow on North Carolina but still no Pennsylvania 😦

40 Comments

  1. Brian
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Michigan, but not Pennsylvania?

    • allthingsgeography1
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I was just thinking the exact same thing. Romney must really want his original home state real bad.

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And Florida strikes me as not as dewn up as we believe. Obama still claiming he is pulling NC respources for Ohio and Florida, Romney still spending. Same with Virginia….HMMMMM maybe things are not as buttoned up as we thought there.

      • John
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

        Nah, just preventative maintenance.

  2. Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I would agree…seems strange to go into Michigan but not PA. Also, NC’s is Romney’s and has been for awhile. I’m glad we’re not taking anything for granted, but I think the $$$ could be better spent elsewhere…

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mitt’s a Detroit guy. It’s sentimental.

  3. WillBest
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sheldon Aldelson wanted the Super PACs to coordinate with each other just because ROF isn’t in PA doesn’t mean Crossroads won’t be.

  4. Adam
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We’ve had discussions about this regarding Iowa and Minnesota, but does anyone know if the Michigan stations have coverage in Ohio and vice-versa? If we see where specifically these ad buys are, maybe it has duel purpose.

    • Todd
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Detroit & Toledo

  5. Tom
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The fact that MI, NV, and WI are in here is telling. This forces obama to defend and put his resources in what a few weeks ago were obama slam-dunks.

  6. zang
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One theory is that they’ve decided their best chance for PA to keep things completely low key, no commercials from either side. I wonder if the GOP senate candidate requested that they keep PA off the radar, to keep Philly turnout down? Speculation.

    Off topic: Why the hell does Gallup continue to poll “Adults” (rather than LV or even RV) on Obama’s job approval 2 weeks before the election?

  7. No Tribe
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    How about the Detroit Tigers in the World Series? I’m surprised Mitt didn’t give them a shout out.

    • Brian
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He tweeted about them when they finished off the Yankees.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Updated schedule appearances:

    Obama
    Tue/23rd: Florida, Ohio
    Wed/24th: Iowa, Colorado, Nevada
    Thur/25th: Florida, Virginia, Ohio
    Sat/27th: NH,

    Romney
    Tue/23rd: Nevada, Colorado
    Wed/24th: Nevada, Iowa
    Thur/25th: Ohio, Ohio
    Fri/26th:
    Sat/27th: Florida,
    Sun/28th: Virginia, Virginia, Virginia

  9. housebroken dad
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Some updated Cuyahoga Cty numbers
    Absentees returned as of 10/22:
    D 66,667 out of 127,391 requested
    R 23,418 out of 49,968 requested

    Don’t know how this compares to ’08 and ’10 but it’s a data point if anyone is interested.

  10. Teapartypaul
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This Also just runs to the 29th. Looks like they may be anticipating another push or super PAC buy the next 8. Also I think cuyanoga was 2 to 1 in 2008. New York Times has 2008 broke down by county 2008. I’m on my phone can’t look it up

    • housebroken dad
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      D’s outnumber R’s 3 to 1 in registered voters in Cuyahoga so it may be more than 2 to 1.

      • housebroken dad
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

        Also, McCain lost Cuyahoga by 38.4% once all the ballots were tallied.

    • TeaPartyPaul
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Cuyahoga 69.0%of total votes reported in Cuyahoga 441,836votes 30.0%of total votes reported in Cuyahoga 196,369votes 100%

    • Todd
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m in cuyahoga and there is definitely Romney momentum here.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:22 am | Permalink

        How on earth do you pronounce that?

  11. Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    could their internals tell them something about Michigan we don’t know?

    PACs aren’t supposed to coordinate with candidates BUT can be doing their own polling. Are they seeing Obama support softer than public polling? I cannot believe a canddiate would throw precious resources this late int he game at a lost cause if there wasnt soemthing there more than I want to win it.

  12. No Tribe
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dang, “hold on, hold on, we are on live television…” lol

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/22/frank_luntz_focus_group_on_third_presidential_debate.html

    About 2 minutes in. I thought Mitt Romney was right on to ignore Libya. It’s too hot and there’s no gain from it.

    • zang
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Libya… an issue of great interest to people like us… but probably of zero interest to “undecided” voters who would probably be unable to find Libya on a map, even if their lives depended upon it.

  13. damien
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    @TheRickWilson Someone is polling Oregon. I hear things.

  14. PeterJ
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Re PA, those PACs may just be accepting the consensus of polling and not weight the polls of Susquehana too highly. Or zang’s speculation may correct, but possibly only partly so. They might be waiting until the very last minute to blast PA. By “they” I mean the overall group of pro-R PACs, since as noted by WillBest, they seem to be coordinating their strategies. And part of the rationale for only certain PACs to target certain states instead of all of them doing a little everywhere, may be so that different ads with different themes can be targeted at different states. An ad that references the coal/gas industry that hits home in PA likely doesn’t mean much elsewhere, and especially a place like IA with its dependence on corn-based ethanol. NC may be a combination of internals showing less of a margin for Romney than public polls and the opposition still targeting the state to some degree.

    With states like MI and if they go there, MN, the thinking may be to try to push the gap to within the MOE of the polls and hope the margin is then in Romney’s favor. It would also be interesting if they made a last minute play at OR. Romney needs as many viable paths as possible that don’t include having to win either OH or PA.

  15. No Tribe
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The NH buy jumps out. RoF hasn’t played their in months. Last week Crossroads put down 1.5M, so they see it in play.

    • damien
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i think romney thinks they got it but wanna keep it from slipping away…like nc and va and such…keep it warm so it dont go cold

  16. Neil in NC
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith – Does your early Nevada voting model take into account the larger (since 2008) number of registered Democrats?

    With Republicans voting in larger numbers early in Nevada is there some way to understand or track their “enthusiasm”? What I mean is can we correlate when the Republicans surpass expected “participation rates”?

    The question to me, I guess, is do the larger number of Dems matter. Is the Rep. participation ratios quantifiably higher this year, or when will they be higher. I’m guessing that at some point we should either expect the Rep’s early numbers to drop off or participation will be such that they’ll just keep showing up to vote.

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No it does not account for registration changes. It really is just a super basic “back of the envelope” model, not anything to rely on with scientific precision. It is made with all reasonable assumptions but does not account for many factors you would want if you’re a campaign. I just modeled it out to have a point of reference and to chart trends. Additionally I believe Democrats had greater registrations in Clark County versus 2008, but overall the Republicans had net gains state-wide offsetting the Clark gains.

      Remember registration advantages only mean “opportunities” to vote. We’re not at the point of calculating actual ballots cast. Any registration advantage simply means there is more opportunity to make up ground but you still have to get these people to the ballot box which is why Romney/Ryan are in Nevada today.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

        Keith, I don’t know how good this guys model is, but he is doing NC, and you might find his post a day interesting:
        http://www.dailykos.com/user/MattTX

        He’s an Obama worker, so it could be just all skewed.

  17. Kent Ostby
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Those are BIG buys in Iowa and Wisconsin. Fairly cheap markets.

  18. AJ
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838?utm_campaign=Outbrain+Story+Box&utm_source=traffic.outbrain.com&utm_medium=internal_outb

    intersting ohio article about early voting.

    • aj
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 5:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Might be an old article.

  19. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    No Minny? 😦

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 5:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      yea, Minnesota will be the North Carolina or Indiana of this election.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

        You think it will? I’m still waffling… it will be close but I don’t see Mitt winning MN without some effort, which I know resources are precious.

  20. Ilya
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In really big news is RR is about to cross $5 price for OH, for those of you who follow InTrade. It’s amazing that it was only $1.50 3 weeks ago.

  21. cbpds
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Michigan poll : Dead heat
    http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat

    courtesy Drudge

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