Ohio and Iowa Early Vote

A few quick comments from Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign operative Adrian Gray who has been closely monitoring these issues:

 

And a little nugget about Undecideds breaking heavily for the challenger … Bush won Ohio by only 2%

11 Comments

  1. Anthony
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 10:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t understand the last comment. Is Gray stating that at this point 8 years ago Bush was up by 7 points in Ohio?

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, Gray is saying the internal polling which is always more accurate than public polling showed Bush up 7 points. But Undecideds broke heavily for Kerry and cut the final margin to 2%. If Obama is tied today, that means he is in deep doo-doo in Ohio.

      • Posted October 23, 2012 at 10:43 am | Permalink

        Kerry was one of those few Dems who actually overperformed in Ohio on election day relative to that candidates national percentage. If RR is up nationally, by a few, OH should fall to RR.

      • Dave Ped
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink

        I wonder what Romney internal polls show in OH right now. A few weeks back, they leaked he was up 4 in OH and 3 in NH.

      • Todd
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 10:50 am | Permalink

        Judging by the strategy of both candidates last night, I think it’s safe to say that Romney must feel very good about his chances in Ohio & elsewhere..Obama, not so much. The President may have gotten in a few zingers, but also reeked of desperation.

      • Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

        Dave I can tell you with some degree of certainty that those numbers leaked were not accurate. Campaigns almost never give out a real internal poll number, they give an idea/general range.

        If a losing candidate says our internals showing us doing very well – they don’t
        If a winning candidate says our internals show us up 3 or 4 it depends on context if it is because everyone is saying the race is tied or they are down 1 or 2 then up 3 or 4 is probably under reporting. If people are saying they are up 5+ and they say 3 or 4 that is to downplay overconfidence.

      • TheGipper
        Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

        Unfortunately Romneys internals have Obama up by 2 in OH and 4 in NV. This is much improved since Sept when we were down by 6 in OH though!

  2. margaret
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I remember the morning after election day 2004, turning on to the analyst at CNN (Bill Schneider). The election was still up-in-the-air over Ohio results. Bill Schneider was showing an Ohio map by counties and showing most of them getting more and more red. He seemed to be getting more and more depressed!! LOL. That’s when I knew Bush had overcome all odds and won again.

  3. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    RE: Ohio – This “More R’s are registered due to the competitive primary” seems like BS to me.

    First – lets face it this was a boring primary for most people. It was abundantly clear that Romney was going to win the nomination – at the time of the Ohio primary it was clear that Santorum wasn’t going to be able to go the distance. Why Dems would “cross over” for this race is beyond me.

    Also – I did the math. In 2012 there were 1.2 million total votes cast in the GOP primary, vs. 1.05 million in 2008. So a difference of 150K votes this year vs. 2008. Not huge.

    And…..Remember in 2008, it was pretty clear at that point McCain was going to get the nomination (I forget if Mitt had dropped out at that point or not). What was not clear, however, was who was going to get the Dem nomination. Remember Rush’s pleas to Ohio R’s to cross over and vote for Hilary? Remember Harry Reid’s letter to him chastizing him for this? (Rush auctioned off the letter for charity haha). I know several R’s who crossed over. And these people obviously came home.

    Bottom line: I do not believe the numbers add up to indicate there are a ton of “cloaked” D’s masquerading as R’s voting early.

  4. Brian
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86d85b21-8b9a-4661-99ab-3b88b2335cf2

    Obama has 125 field offices to Romney’s 40. Team blue is going to peel of this state with the Early Vote operation.

  5. Mike
    Posted October 24, 2012 at 1:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    @ Brian
    I believe is going to be the other way around………DEMs are in PANIC mode right now, even the liberal Bob Beckel at the five in foxnews channel said two days ago that he was very worry about OIHO….Lol (sarc)…

    http://moelane.com/2012/10/23/rsrh-and-im-not-the-only-one-to-hear-that-rumor-about-dem-panic-over-oh/

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