Obama +5 in Minnesota — Rasmussen

Romney keeping Minnesota on the radar! I don’t have the full breakdown but thanks to @NumbersMuncher we know Romney leads with Independents by a whopping 17 points and the party ID is aggressively Democrat in a state strongly reversing its Democrat roots in favor of Republicans.  The party ID is D+6.  This compares to D+4 in 2008 and D+3 in 2004.

Here was my earlier explanation for why we should expect Minnesota party identification to trend Republican in this election:

In 2008 Minnesota’s political affiliation change was unlike most of America. Between 2004 and 2008 we saw Battleground States experience wide swings in their party ID as citizens bought into the magnetic story of Barack Obama.  States like Ohio saw its Party ID swing 13-points in favor of Democrats; Nevada swung 12-points in favor of Democrats; North Carolina swung 12-points in favor of Democrats; Virginia swung 10-points; New Hampshire 9-points; and on and on all towards the Democrats.  Minnesota’s party affiliation, however, only swung 1-point towards the Democrats.  This was smaller than every party affiliation move among even the most remote of contested state.  This lack of change during the Democrat tidal wave of 2008 is a major component of hidden Republican strength demonstrated in the chart above.  Minnesota is, and has been, a state trending steadily Republican even in the face of the incredible Democrat wave seen in 2008.

The details from Rasmussen:

President Obama earns just over 50% of the vote in Minnesota.  A new telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters finds Barack Obama with 51% support to 46% for Mitt Romney.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) is undecided. Minnesota is Leans Obama in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 46
Other 1
Undecided 1

35 Comments

  1. Tom
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    This is excellent news for R/R and bad news for obama. Romney leads independents by 17 points, if true, he takes MN. Mitt-mentum.

    • damien
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      any state that gave us hhh, mondale and wellstone….will die darn hard….before it gets to us

  2. John Fisher
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    For crying out loud. How many Independents are there in MN…. five??

  3. Pete
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Telling that 0 had to give Minn a shout out in last night’s debate, No?

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed. I almost spontaneously combusted when he name-checked Minnesota.

  4. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dems also break 99/1 for Obama in this poll. How accurate is that? This poll is basically a “best case scenario” for Obama.

  5. johnn
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Fire up the ads!

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And tie up our cheating Secretary of State

  6. AJ
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    its accurate. As a Minnesotan, mpls and st. paul are full of people who vote democrats and green party members who would never vote for a republican just beacuse there is a R next to their names. +5-7 is what obama will get in mn in my opinion. By the way, I have started seeing offical Romney ads about a week ago. For some reason, i have seen a lot of Obama ads on FNC.

    • AJ
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As an additional add on, I used to vol. for Rep. Bachman and Gov. Pawlenty, and its always like rowing upstream in this state.

    • northstar
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      count me as skeptical. As a lifelong rebublican in this state, I am used to swimming upstream against the DFL machine. If only men voted or say 60% men, then I would say it would be feasable for Romney. But alas, the fairer sex in most cases in this state drive the results for the dems.

  7. Zang
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    From the internals, MN looks like a lost cause. Majority seems to love Obama, and think everything is going swimmingly. Final margin will probably be around 51-48.

  8. allthingsgeography1
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think Romney might have a chance in Minnesota…granted I don’t live there (although I have Democratic relatives there). He’d probably have to have intense rural and pro-Romney suburban turnout to flip the state with the party-ID around a tie though. Bush lost the state by only 3.48% in 2004 with a Bush lead of 2.46% nationally over Kerry. If Romney can have lead of 4-5 points nationally, that state could go red. If I had to make bets, I’d still say it’ll remain blue just because of history.

  9. Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In 2008, Obama won Minnesota Indies (25% of the vote) by 20%. Minnesota is not a lost cause.

  10. Zang
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The one thing that makes me think it might not be a lost cause for Romney is Obama felt the need to do a “shout out” to Minnesota. It was really strange how the debate ended last night. The way Obama and Michelle looked at each other, with sadness in their eyes. It was like they knew it was over. I am sure they will survive, making $1,000,000 per speech to “green energy” companies.

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s funny you picked up on that. It hit me like a bolt of lightening when they hugged. His eyes were closed, his face despondent, as if this was a consolation hug. I had to watch it again and both times it said the same thing .. a defeated man.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

        I noticed it as well. It looked like a defeated man. As an Obama supporter, I pretty much came to the conclusion that Obama was toast after the 2nd debate. He won it, but was being killed on various issues related to the economy. I knew then that it was over. My fellow Obama people haven’t come close to the same conclusion. But after seeing what I saw last night, I have a feeling Obama feels the weight of how difficult it may be for him to win.

      • Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:03 pm | Permalink

        My wife made a similar comment when in the pre-game they kept showing Michelle and Ann split screen. She said Ann looked nervous and Michelle looked sad and defeated. Said her smile looked pained.

        I too noticed that Michelle and Barack were very very subdued at the end. Even the after math with all the kids and grand kids, Romney looked like the incumbant and Obama looked like the challenger running from behind and knowing he needs a hail mary and that that debate wasn’t going to be it.

        I try not to read too much into state shout outs or looks on faces, I tend to always play the devil advocate. But it really seems that despite a massive ego, Obama looks defeated, like he is just wanting it to be over for good. I think this race has beat him down. He is the quarterback who was winning the superbowl against all odds and with 2 minutes left threw an interception for a run back touchdown to give the go ahead score.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

        Or worse yet, Shane…being sacked hard and hurt after the first debate. If Obama falls two weeks from today, the sad joke will be, “How to lose an election in 90 minutes”. I know there isn’t much love lost for Obama in this blog, but I really do think Obama did what he could do with the cards he was dealt. McCain probably would’ve had an equally thankless task. It’s a shame he probably won’t make it out of November 6th with a job after mid-January.

      • Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

        I agree he was in a mess…no one would have been in a good spot. But i think the auto/bank bailouts were a mistake and obviously shoving Obamacare down the throats of America instead of focusing on jobs and the economy was the mountainous mistake. Had he stayed focused on the economy he would be a blow away re-elect.

        I think if he falls in two weeks this is a prime example of a person resting on their laurels. Thinking HE will win the election because of speeches and all the bluster he came in with 4 years ago. He truly believes HE is the lynchpin for everything. His ego is his downfall.

      • Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

        Obama just seemed so tired when he came to the closing arguments. Just from reading the expressions and how each candidate holds themselves, I’d guess Obama’s internal polls look bad and Romney’s look good. The shout out to Minnesota tells me it is in play and will be a turnout issue. This Rasmussen poll is based on D+6, so greater enthusiasm from Democrats than four years ago. I’m sorry, but I just don’t buy that for most states.

        Let’s also recall that the Democratic governor just barely won and may have only done so due to a third party. Pawlenty also managed two terms, so Minnesota does elect Republicans to statewide office – and that means that they will go for one nationally as well. If Mondale had not been a native son, I think the state would have gone for Reagan in 1984.

        I see a D+2 turnout as far more likely and I also seriously doubt a 99% vote from Democrats. I would guess that we’ll see the same thing nationwide – a higher percentage of Democrats will bleed off the President than will Republicans off of Romney. Romney has more firm support at this point. He has passed the smell test and people are not happy with the incumbent. A large majority want Obama to change his policies if re-elected. That tells me that over 30% of his support is soft. I think about 1.5-3 percentage points will bail on him and move to Romney when push comes to shove in addition to undecideds breaking for the challenger, as is usual.

        With Romney leading by 17 with indies, that’s a lot of ground for Democrats to make up and they need turnout. I just don’t see the rank and file as being enthused for President Obama. They wanted a strong vision and a different path for a second term. Selling the same policies is not a winner to the majority of the electorate.

        Making some rational adjustments, it seems that Romney can clear 50 in Minnesota.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I noticed the same thing at the end of the VP debate. Paul’s wife was elated and looked refreshed; Biden’s wife was very, very subdued.

  11. Tom
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Romney wins nationally by 5-7%, there is an excellent chance MN goes red. If its > 7% nationally, MN will go red.

  12. Porchlight
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    MN is not entirely a lost cause. State legislature went red in 2010 and the R governor candidate barely lost. Gay marriage is on the ballot this year. I think Obama will probably take it, but by a slim margin. Meanwhile Team Obama will have to scramble to plug all these holes and maybe that will cost them where it really counts – OH.

  13. Porchlight
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Also FWIW Minnesota is one of the Romney pickups in the UC Boulder prediction model based on state economic trends. MN has a large medical/healthcare industry as was noted in the comments here on Rochester-area media buys. The Obamacare tax on medical devices was opposed by both Klobuchar and Franken. Obamacare is going to hit MN hard.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Good point. Very good point. Rochester, MN is the medical capital of the world. Now I realize why the ads…

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

        I was born there, too. Safest city in the world to be born, right? :p

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        Yes, great place! The Mayo is incredible.

  14. MikeN
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So when are you going to run a prediction post. Pick the states in order of vote share, with a bonus for picking the 270th vote.
    How far out should the states be ranked? All 50? Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Florida, New Jersey, Oregon, Arizona, North Carolina, Indiana, Connecticut, Maine, Montana, Missouri, any more?

  15. d.ssims@comcast.net
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    With gay marriage on the ballot…Look for Romney to win…

    • Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is a big hidden issue I meant to allude to in my Minnesota write up. I shy away from the social issue but when you are discussing enthusiasm and turnout, the social issue get people to the ballot box like no other. Add in likely Democrat depression by election day (over an expected loss) plus GOP enthusiasm and this issue could very likely put Romney over the top. Remember, gay marriage has lost on every single state ballot when it is put to a vote. Thanks for the reminder because it is a big big factor in turnout.

      • Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

        four years ago the consenus was the GOP was finished, was destined to be nothing more than a small regional party of the southern states. They were done, never win nationally again….then 2010 happened.

      • Porchlight
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

        My family and most of my college friends are in MN and virtually all are Dem. I don’t know. Gay marriage is very important to them – it might be the difference between depressed Dems staying home and depressed Dems turning out to vote no (and vote for Obama while they’re at it). Social issues get both sides to the ballot box. Rep enthusiasm is higher overall, of course, and I would expect that to be the same in MN.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 23, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

        Last I hear, of all 4 states with marriage on the ballot, the one most likely to succeed is Minnesota, despite prominent pastors’ silence. If this is the case, Mitt will most benefit from the issue here. I’m not sure how it will affect the black community, but the issue may have a positive effect for Mitt in that arena too. The Ras poll, as much as I like Rasmussen, is too weighted towards Dems. Not gonna be greater than ’08. Nope. No way. The marriage amendment should move R at least +1 or 2 more than it would be. If we assume D +2 accurate, then maybe final toll is even or D +1.

  16. northstar
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    MN is different whwn it come to social issues. there is a live and let live mentality that you find here and in surrounding states. The gay marriage amendment cuts both wayswhen driving turnout and to be honest not all dems favor gay marriage nor all reb oppose

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