American Research group weighs in with a tight poll of Nevada showing President Obama with a 2-point lead, 49 to 47. Nevada could be a tough state for Romney to flip. It’s disparate population make it a tough state to poll with Republican support often showing higher in polling than at the voting booth — a change from most states. My gut says Nevada may go to Romney but it will do so by 2-3 points below his national vote margin. That is, If Romney wins nationally by 5, he wins Nevada by 2-3. If Romney wins nationally by 1-2 points, he loses Nevada. But Romney is in Henderson, Nevada today and Reno, Nevada tomorrow so it’s not like he isn’t going all out for these 6 electoral votes. The early voting numbers are also a boon to Romney at this juncture, but he must begin outperforming with Independents if he wants to secure the state. In this ARG poll, Obama is leading with Independents by 6-points, 50 to 44.
The party ID is D +6 (Dem 43, Rep 37, Ind 20). In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38 Rep 30, Ind 32) and in 2004 it was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). This is a shade closer to 2008 but Democrats did close strong on voter registrations to mostly reverse what had been great GOP gains relative to 2008. The enthusiasm gap may play a part in this favoring the Democrats a bit too much, though.