Obama +2 in Nevada — American Research Group

American Research group weighs in with a tight poll of Nevada showing President Obama with a 2-point lead, 49 to 47.  Nevada could be a tough state for Romney to flip.  It’s disparate population make it a tough state to poll with Republican support often showing higher in polling than at the voting booth — a change from most states. My gut says Nevada may go to Romney but it will do so by 2-3 points below his national vote margin.  That is, If Romney wins nationally by 5, he wins Nevada by 2-3.  If Romney wins nationally by 1-2 points, he loses Nevada. But Romney is in Henderson, Nevada today and Reno, Nevada tomorrow so it’s not like he isn’t going all out for these 6 electoral votes.  The early voting numbers are also a boon to Romney at this juncture, but he must begin outperforming with Independents if he wants to secure the state.  In this ARG poll, Obama is leading with Independents by 6-points, 50 to 44.

The party ID is D +6 (Dem 43, Rep 37, Ind 20). In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38 Rep 30, Ind 32) and in 2004 it was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). This is a shade closer to 2008 but Democrats did close strong on voter registrations to mostly reverse what had been great GOP gains relative to 2008.  The enthusiasm gap may play a part in this favoring the Democrats a bit too much, though.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 47
Other 1
Undecided 3

11 Comments

  1. Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:22 am | Permalink | Reply

    ARG has Romney +2 this morning; tied among Indies.

  2. Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think Heller will pull Romney over the finish line.

  3. Vadim
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:32 am | Permalink | Reply

    ARG has a good NH poll out this morning as well. R 49 O 47. D29 R 35 I 36. There is a tie among the independents 48-48. 9% of republicans are voting for O? Only 4% of Democrats voting for Romney…

  4. No Tribe
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 11:32 am | Permalink | Reply

    They are running with this: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Wisconsin.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82739.html#ixzz2A8UMt8Lz

    Jonathan Martin does a really good job in this article of getting on the record quotes from the two campaign strategists.

    I pretty much agree what he says about PA too– that it not having the slew of negative ads by Obama dumped on it is what is making it in play. They have publicly written off NC, see Begala, and all but written off Colorado, Florida and Virginia as what they need. They just see these three states as a way to be on the offensive and make Romney defend.

    Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio. Those are the three states the spin from last night says it is coming down too. I have not seen anything to suggest that Romney is going back to NH again. His campaign said they are heading back to Wisconsin again. WI and NH are the back door to above 270 instead of Ohio.

  5. housebroken dad
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    To add to Keith’s Washoe post from earlier…
    Clark Cty
    Day 3
    2008
    D 40,582
    R 17,538

    2012
    D 46,416
    R 28,325

  6. Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nevada won’t go Romney. He can’t get over the hump and won’t

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There’s a way Shane. There are a couple of variables. First, the mormon vote, and second, the latino vote. The former energized and turning out to make a 30K+ difference, the latter having moved a lot with housing mk’t crashed and not voting.

    • M.Remmerde
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think NV for Romney will be like MO was for Obama in 2008. A nice to have that doesn’t happen…but in the end, isn’t needed.

  7. Kevin
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 2:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nevada is a hard nut to crack since SEIU is contracted out to run the voting machines. No wonder Harry Reid keeps getting reelected.

  8. J.
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nevada (still) has a significant Mormon population & they will be turning-out.
    All of them!
    So maybe an additional +2 Romney vs any pre-election polling…

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