Romney-Obama Tied at 48 in Iowa — Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports hits the Hawkeye State with the race all knotted up at 48 a piece.  And since Undecideds break overwhelmingly for the challenger, one candidate is likely winning this tie:

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now dead even in the battleground state of Iowa. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Obama and Romney each earning 48% support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are still undecided. The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 2


  1. Tom
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    With Romeny up 7 in Gallup, here is a very likely scenario. Romeny takes: FL, NC, VA, OH, PA, MI, WI, IA, MN, NV, NM, CO which brings Mitt to 352. Also in play and probably a surprise or two will be: OR, NJ, WA, CT. This is going to be a mini-landslide for Romney. Can’t stop this Mitt-mentum.

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      whoa there Trigger….i doubt even in their wildest imagination does Romney believe they will take PA, MI, MN, NM or anything even remotely associated with OR, NJ, WA and CT. Unless you see a massive poll uptick in the next 3 days…this will boil down to probably a 285 or below win for either side.

      • Barf
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

        285 or more for Romney unless Obama cheats.

      • Todd
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

        True. The only way Romney take NJ,OR,NM,etc is if Trump announces tomorrow that he has proof the the show “Homeland” was based on Obama. Personally, I’ll be thrilled if Romney gets 275(which I also think is highly probable).

  2. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The “wild landslide projection” would only come if Romney wins the debate tonight, scores good points, or Obama makes a major gaffe. Otherwise it’ll be tight in quite a few states up until election day.

  3. Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup 6 points (51-45)….Obama has been LOCKED at 45% for 6 straight days, zero movement. That has to tell you something. Even though his approval is right at 50 in both Gallup and RAS.

  4. TheWIZZ
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I read about voters poll in Ohio… that test groups of women – Think Obama is “hiding” something bad about Libya/Benghazi –
    I hope Obama does NOT set a trap for Romney to embarrass him in tonights debate – thats the only way Obammmer can stop the MittMentum – some October surprise/dirty trick

  5. Tom
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If you look at history, if someone wins the popular vote by 7%, the 350+ electoral votes just follows. It is not an exact formula, however just statistically it will happen. When you look at the extreme democrat bias in most state polls, even Rasmussen is oversampling dems, I am confident of the Romney mini-landslide.

    • allthingsgeography1
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You have to remember however, that Gallup is just one poll and it can be wrong. If other polls respond in the next week and head in the name direction, then we may see what you are predicting. Here is my current prediction if had to make a call right now…302-236 Romney victory:

      I expect some of these states, such as Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa to be exceedingly close. It could be a long evening.

    • Jim
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tom makes a good point. If the Gallup national numbers hold than many more states will fall.

      • equityval
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

        Gallup is an outlier on national polls at this point. Maybe the others get there, but not at this moment.

      • Jim
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

        Gallup is a CONSISTENT outlier if it is an outlier at all.

  6. Pete
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New Suffolk poll re OHIO: O 47 R 47. Suffolk called NC FL and VA early for Romney. O stuck in mid 40’s on most polls shows that he is in serious trouble in OH.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interesting. Suffolk has been a top pollster this cycle. This is encouraging.

    • Tom
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Pete, I just saw it too. D/R/I is 39/35/27. Totally unrealistic. More great news for Romney.

  7. Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Monmouth poll extremely encouraging if true: “About 12% of the poll’s likely voter sample reports they have already cast their presidential ballot in early voting. Among this group, Romney got 44% of the vote to 41% for Obama – an edge which is within the margin of error for this sub-group.”

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      15% other? That doesn’t sound believable. I actually think many respondents say they have voted because they believe voting is their duty as a citizen and it sounds good to say they have voted. In reality, the 15% who say they voted other haven’t voted and are still undecided. I think many people also say they are “very likely” to vote because they feel it is their duty; whether they vote or not remains to be seen.

  8. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    for every poll you read or blog about, spend 10 minutes sending out the message to voters of OH, WI, IA, CO, NH, VA, NC, FL and getting out the vote!

  9. SR
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If you want a feel for how delusional Libs are, here is a comment I spotted in one of the lefty sites in response to the Gallup poll that showed Romenye at 51% and O at 45%.
    “Doesn’t make sense because so far it’s about 7 times as many newspaper endorsements for Obama than there is for Romney.
    How can so many of those endorsements be that far off?”

    This guy actually thinks newspaper endorsements determine elections!!

    • Ranger375
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      All I keep reading is “Gallup is wrong” . Oh and about those other polls showing the Romney shift… “Gallup is wrong!” Wow.

      • Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

        Gallup has about a 60% accuracy rate…they have correctly got the winner right in all but 2 races in history. However, their history of being close on the actual vote totals is about 60%.

        i actually did my thesis on the history of presidential polling and whether the re-elect rate matches what polling showed the week leading up to the election. I used gallup only because they have the longest history, etc. I looked at all the way back to their first polls 60+ years ago. What I found is ont he 50/50 coin flip who will win they are correct on the winner but usually nowhere near coming close to showing the actual margin. They are generally actually closer on incumbants that have lost than those who won,.

      • Ranger375
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        Shane – thank you for taking the time to provide the insight.

        I guess I will take the trending as a good sign overall. The Dems sure don’t want to accept it though.

  10. Tom
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Two new PA polls look bad for Dear Leader. Gravis has O +3, Morning Call has O +5. Both oversampled Dems.. PA in play and looking good for R/R.

  11. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Is there any prevailing wisdom as to what will happen in states tied or within 1%? My assumption is a tie in an accurate poll should mean a Romney win IF undecideds go toward Mitt. I guess it makes sense that many polls are close. Beating an incumbent president is very hard. The only time it happened recently an independent took a huge chunk of the vote.

  12. Jim
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Now I wonder whether our NATE SILVER of 538 fame will get around to adding the two Rassmussen polls (IOWA tied and CO – Romney up 4 as well as the OH Suffolk poll!! Nate is desperately trying to keep hope alive.

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